Announcement

**InsiderEdge** · 11-14-2004, 12:32 PM

One college hoops game has been added to the Sunday Card.

**InsiderEdge** · 11-14-2004, 09:49 PM

Unfortunately, Illinois St. couldn’t miss in the second half and we dropped our first college hoops game of the season with Penn St. However, we go 3-1 in the NFL, including yet another GOY winner as our NFL Total of the Year comes in with the under between Tampa Bay and Atlanta. New Members enjoyed an 8-2 weekend in football while we continue to chug along at a 59.3% clip this football season.

Ask about our special for the remainder of the football season or jump on board for the entire basketball season as we defend our #1 2003-04 College Basketball Handicapping Service title.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns +4.5 –115 (2 Units)

This is a pissed off bunch of Browns heading home after their loss at Baltimore last Sunday night. Cleveland was driving for the game tying touchdown but an interference no call led to a 106 yard interception return and a Baltimore win. The good news for the Browns is that they are now at home, where they are two points from being perfect on the season. Pittsburgh has defeated the last two remaining unbeaten teams in the last two weeks at home so coming off two big wins like that and then heading out on the road will be difficult, division game or not. AFC North teams are 14-3 (.824) at home, the highest winning percentage for a division this season.

The Browns have been solid against the run this season and they will need to slow down the Steelers running game. Cleveland is 9th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 107.3 ypg and they are also 9th in average, giving up just 3.8 ypc. By stopping the run, Cleveland will force Pittsburgh into third and long situations, which is one of the glaring weaknesses of rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Stats, Inc. defines third and medium as being between 7 and 4 yards and third and long as 8 yards and longer. Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the AFC in third and medium. He has completed 18 of 28 passes for 64.3 percent. But on third and 8 or longer, Roethlisberger is tied for 12th with only six completions in 26 attempts. The Pittsburgh running back situation is a sticky one as everyone is battling some sort of injury. Leading rusher Duce Staley remains questionable while Jerome Bettis is battling a calf injury. Verron Haynes (turf toe), the team's third-down back, is listed as doubtful and will not play against the Browns. Cleveland has twice kept the Ravens' Jamal Lewis in check. The Browns must do the same kind of job against Bettis and Staley, assuming he is ready to go. Staley gained 117 yards (the most Cleveland has allowed in 2004) in Week 5. One big and overlooked advantage for the Browns is that they will be seeing Roethlisberger for the second time this season, the only team thus far to have that luxury. He had his breakout game against the Browns in Week 5, completing 16 of 21 passes for 231 yards. Roethlisberger has added a dimension to the Steelers' attack but he hasn't needed to rally his team from a deep hole, the most he has been down is 10 points and has trailed only twice since becoming starter. The Steelers got a very fortunate fumble return against the Cowboys to set up the game winning drive in his last road game. In his two road games, they haven’t been true road games. The fringe of a hurricane allowed him to play in the slop and not a full stadium in Miami and win 13-3. In Texas Stadium, thousands of Steelers fans made Roethlisberger's game against the Cowboys sound like a home game. Cleveland will go to the ground to establish a running game to try and get the pressure off Jeff Garcia who has been hounded in recent weeks. Head coach Butch Davis named three-year veteran tackle Joaquin Gonzalez to start at right guard replacing Kelvin Garmon, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Ravens. The choice to go with Gonzalez makes sense against the Steelers. “He is extraordinarily smart with all of the blitzes,” Davis said of Gonzalez. Cleveland is a different team at home and the outright win would not be surprising here at all. The Steelers were the cover boys of SI this week and you know what that means.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM ET

St. Louis Rams +1 –110 (2 Units)

Seattle has won two straight after going through a three game losing streak. However, the two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-14 on the season and they have yet to defeat a team that has at least a .500 record. St. Louis has lost two straight as the offense has gone south, averaging 18 ppg in those two losses. They had scored 27.5 ppg in their 4 games before that and they will go up against a Seahawks defense that has given up 26.4 ppg in their last 5 encounters. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings and Seattle should have won the fifth meeting but they blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead and eventually lost in overtime.

Division hopes could fade for the Rams if they lose this crucial home game. A victory would give the Rams a 4-0 division mark, and Seattle would be 2-3. But a loss would shove the Rams under .500 for the first time since early last season as they head into a five-game stretch in which they play four road games, including touch road trips to Buffalo and Green Bay. Conversely, the Seahawks follow Sunday's game with three home games against teams with combined records of 7-18. Even if the Seahawks lose, they have a good chance of being 8-4 heading into the final four games. Plus if the Rams win, they would own the tie-breaker and need only match the Seahawks the rest of the way to win the division title. The message that coach Mike Martz delivered this week when he heatedly challenged his players to "step up and make plays", accented by rare full-contact work in practice Wednesday, apparently came through loud and clear. Wide receiver Kevin Curtis said, "Just watching guys fly around (at practice) you can tell there's a little more urgency. It's time to find out what kind of team we really are and how we respond coming off a couple of losses." The Rams have been much healthier and much more productive in the running game than a year ago. Only four NFL teams have a higher yards-per-carry average than the Rams' 4.6. Overall, the run blocking has been good. But it has been feast or famine in the pass-blocking department. The Rams have allowed 18 sacks in their four losses but just six sacks in their four victories. Seattle has just 19 sacks through 8 games against some very suspect offensive line so the Rams should be able to hold here. They got to Bulger just twice in the first meeting. Grant Wistrom may try to play after coming off a broken kneecap, but he won't be at full speed if he can be on the field. The four-man rush without him has had a tough time applying pressure. In years past, the Rams would have had a big home-field advantage against the Seahawks. St. Louis was 8-0 at home last year and 33-7 from 1999-2003, and Seattle was 2-6 on the road last year and 16-24 from 1999-2003. But this year, the Rams are 2-2 at home and the Seahawks are 3-2 on the road. However, one of the Rams losses was to New England while one of the Seattle road wins came against underachieving Tampa Bay, another against rebuilding San Francisco. The Seahawks relied on their talent and play execution and scored 65 points in victories over the Panthers and 49ers. But these are the Rams coming up Sunday. To get over the hump and be a division winner, the Seahawks need to exorcise their ghosts when playing the Rams. It won't be easy and it won’t be done.

NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM ET

Under 40.5 Tampa Bay/Atlanta –110 (3 units)

With Tampa Bay putting up 34 points last week against Kansas City, it gives us good value in this total. It was the first time they put up more than 30 points this season and only the 4th time they have scored more than 20 points in their last 19 games. Atlanta had a week off to try and get their defense back in order after allowing 84 points (42 ppg) in their previous two games. In their 6 games prior to that, the defense yielded a total of only 86 points (14.3 ppg). At home this season, they have allowed 20 points only once and are averaging an impressive 14.3 ppg on defense in their four home games. Their last three home games have produced an average total score of 25.7 ppg.

Both teams have very average passing attacks on offense, with Tampa Bay ranked 17th and Atlanta ranked 28th. There is even more value in this total based on those rankings. There are 5 games this weekend where the passing offense combined are higher than 45 (Atlanta and Tampa Bay land right on 45). Of those, the totals are 34, 34.5, 40.5, 36.5 and 38 – our game is the only one in the 40’s. Atlanta may be 30th in total defense but they are 18th in scoring defense showing that sometimes, total yards don’t give the full story. The Falcons have allowed a ton of passing yards recently but those came against Trent Green and Jake Plummer. Brian Griese can not be compared to those two. Even the scoring defense number is skewed heavily by the Kansas City game. Atlanta coach Jim Mora Jr. doesn’t base his defense’s performance on total yards because he knows there are a lot of empty yards in those numbers, or yards that were given up but didn’t amount to anything. Two weeks ago, although the Broncos rolled up 567 yards in total offense, including 499 through the air, the Falcons still won the game by two scores, 41-28. However, the Broncos had 319 of their 567 total yards after they fell behind by two scores. One other number Mora believes will often tell the story of the games is the total amount of rushing yards. When teams are able to run the ball successfully, not only does it open up more options, but it also allows teams to control the ball for longer periods of time. The Falcons are 6th in rushing defense in both ypg and ypc. They are also 3rd and 2nd in those respective categories on offense. Tampa Bay is now a much stronger rushing team than they were in the beginning of the season as Michael Pittman has improved the running game immensely. Since sitting out losses to Washington, Seattle and Oakland while serving a three-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy, he has averaged nearly 5 yards per carry. Falcons defensive tackle Rod Coleman, who has missed the past three games with a knee injury, expects to play Sunday but probably won't be 100 percent. The Bucs will run Pittman between tackles to take advantage. The Bucs defense excels against the pass while the Falcons still aren’t getting a lot of yards through the air. They have a 77 quarterback rating against them and allow only 55.7 percent of completions. Falcons quarterback Michael Vick has only eight games in the West Coast offense and while he is showing progress, he still does not have it 100% down. The Bucs will play a tough, physical style on defense and try to take Vick out of the game. He will once again have trouble on third downs. The combined defenses of Tampa Bay and Atlanta are allowing a total average of 40.7 ppg. Taking out both teams’ games with the Chiefs and that total average drops all the way to 33.6 ppg. Neither of these offenses can even compare to Kansas City.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers 4:15 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings +4 +102 (2 Units)

The Vikings are a desperate team right now as they have lost their last two games and they have seen their 3-game lead in the NFC North shrink to 1-game. This is all too familiar for Minnesota and even without Randy Moss, they will be ready to break out of their mini slump. Green Bay is playing their best football of the season but the bye week came at the wrong time. Yes it helped them heal some injuries but it also killed the momentum of a three-game win streak. This is similar to what happened to the NY Giants three weeks ago when they came off a bye and lost outright at home to the Lions. Byes can be good but only if they come at the right time and this was not it.

The Vikings proved they could move the football without wide receiver Randy Moss, who will sit out against the Packers. Quarterback Daunte Culpepper threw for only 169 yards, but the Vikings scored 28 points. Culpepper is showing his maturity and is putting up the best numbers of his career. This season, he leads the league in completions (199) and completion percentage (71.8%) and is second to Peyton Manning in yards (2,349), touchdown passes (21) and quarterback rating (115.0). He has also been a great asset in the clutch. He leads the NFL in third-down completion percentage (75.4%) and third-down rating (137.0). In the fourth quarter, he has completed 51 of 74 passes (68.9%) for 603 yards, with seven touchdowns and one interception. The Packers know what he can do as he has burned them numerous times. In seven meetings against the Packers, Culpepper has 122 completions in 217 attempts (56.2%) for 1,545 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has also rushed for 277 yards against Green Bay, more than he has gained against any other team. Without Randy Moss, the Vikings plan to run a lot more than usual. Onterrio Smith will start and is their best pure running back and head coach Mike Tice will mix in Michael Bennett and Moe Williams in situations. Green Bay is 18th against the run, allowing 116.1 ypc but they are 26th in average as they are giving up 4.6 ypc. Minnesota is 11th in rushing with 125 ypg but they are first in the NFL with 5.1 ypc. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan noted that the Vikings generated five of their 11 runs of 15 or more yards over the past three games, and said more players are getting involved in the offense. Smith has also proved that he is a threat catching the ball also. Smith had eight catches for 56 yards during a Week 2 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and eclipsed the century mark the following week against the Chicago Bears when he had six catches for 104 yards. Minnesota’s defense is not their strength by far, but it still limited the Colts to 31 points. Don’t forget Peyton Manning and company torched the Packers for 453 yards and 45 points Sept. 26. The Vikings’ defense, which ranks 28th overall, is a respectable 13th against the run. The Packers have slipped to 12th in the NFL in rushing offense. Brett Favre has thrown nine interceptions in eight games this season so he has been susceptible to throwing errant passes. By defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell's count, the Vikings have dropped at least nine balls that should have been interceptions this season. "We have four," Cottrell said. "We should have at least [an NFL-leading] 13. That's a lot of takeaways and momentum-shifting plays we're leaving out there on the field." This season, the Packers are 28th in the league in turnover ratio (minus-10). They have thrown 11 interceptions and lost seven fumbles.

Illinois St. Redbirds vs. Penn St. Nittany Lions 6:30 PM ET

Penn St. Nittany Lions –1.5 –110 (2 Units)

Penn St. will struggle in the Big Ten this season and will also struggle against big teams inside. However, they won’t be overmatched against the Redbirds who lack size inside to take advantage of the Penn St. interior. While the Nittany Lions are small inside, they actually are bigger than Illinois St. as Aaron Johnson and Travis Parker both outweigh their counterparts inside. Parker is a JUCO transfer who will help out right away and looked very good in the last exhibition game. Also in the mix will be freshman Brandon Hassell who will be the tallest player on the court today. The Redbirds lost their best inside player Marcus Arnold who transferred to Illinois and while they posses an experienced backcourt, they only have one playmaker with Trey Guidry. The Penn St. backcourt is young but Ben Luber and Marlon Smith combined for 20.2 ppg as freshmen and both were solid from the free throw line, hitting above 75%. Smith became the first Nittany Lion to ever be named to the Big Ten All-Freshman squad. Penn St. started last season winning three of their first four games, losing the one game by a single point to Georgetown. After their exhibition win, there were a lot more smiles on the Penn State bench than had been seen at any time last year, particularly for plays made by the freshmen. "I feel a lot more excited about this year and the other guys do, too," Smith said. "As a whole, we have a better team this year."

Announcement

NFL Total of the Year!!

NFL Total of the Year!!

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