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**Buzz** · 11-14-2004, 04:55 PM

The Big NFL Run Continues Today

3-1 this morning winning both the POW and Top Total again. Huge NFL run going, lets see how it goes this afternoon

Pick Star Ratings Game Time
CAROLINA (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 7): Play On The Over 41 3 Star 11/14/2004 3:15:00 PM

Couple of 1-7 teams hook up here with nothing to lose. Look for a wide open game. I expect both teams to throw 30 to 40 times. Carolina with the better pass defense while the 49ers have trouble stopping anyone they play. Take this Over 41 as a 3% Play

BUFFALO (3 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 1): Play to be released by 4:00 PM CST 1 11/14/2004 7:35:00 PM

Check back for release and rating Sunday

PITTSBURGH (7 - 1) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5): Play On The Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 4 Star 11/14/2004 12:00:00 PM

In theory you could make a pretty good case for the Browns today, but I think the odds makers were correct when they opened this game up with the Steelers laying 5 points. The line is down to 3.5. The Steelers have been getting better every week vs. tougher competition. The Steelers come in winners of 6 in a row while the Browns have lost two straight. Cleveland's pass defense has been poor allowing 6.9 PYA and a completion rate of 61.8% while the Steelers have thrown for 7.6 PYA completing 65.3% of their passes. I am aware of all the angles favoring the Browns in this game, however I just don't think they have the offensive weapons or defense to hang in this one. The streak is your freind. One thing I learned a long time ago is don't try to make a team into a play when it is just not there. Stay with the surging Steelers and lay the points. There will not be a let down this week as many predict. This is a 3.5% Play WIN

BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at NY JETS (6 - 2): Play On The Baltimore Ravens -1 6 Star 11/14/2004 12:00:00 PM

Couple reasons why I like Baltimore here. Just as last week I like a good run stopping defense vs. the Jets. This Raven defesnse is only allowing 3.3 YPR and 5.1 PYA allowing a completion rate of only 51.1%. They will face Q.Carter at QB who has never played in a West Coast offense and his passing accuracy is not near as good as Pennington. Another advantage I like for the Ravens is the Jets pass defense is not that good and Boeller is not as bad as the public would make you believe. The Ravens hope to have TE Heap back which will also add another weapon to the Raven offense. J. Lewis back for his second game off the suspension so look for him to be in better form this week which will also be an issue for this Jets defense giving up 4 YPR at home. Look for this Raven offense to break out a little this week while their defense will give the Jets problems all day. Take the Baltimore Ravens this week as my NFL 6 Star Play Of The Week. This is a 5% Play win

HOUSTON (4 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3): Play On The Over 54 5 Star 11/14/2004 12:00:00 PM

Houston pass defense allowoing 6.8 PYA and a completion rate of 63.9% while their rush defense is giving up 4.5 YPR. The Colts are even worse giving up 7.7 PYA and a completion rate of 70.6% while their rush defense is allowing 4.6 YPR. The Houston passing game is much improved gaining 7.7 PYA on the road completing 58.7% of their throws. The Colts are even better 8.9 PYA at home completing 69.6% of their throws. Expect to see the ball in the air all day and I will go Over 54 as my NFL Top Total. This is a 4% Play win

KANSAS CITY (3 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 5): Play On The Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 3 11/14/2004 12:00:00 PM

Both teams coming in off a loss. This really gets down to which teams defesne will actually show up and I believe that will be the Chiefs. At least they will come up with more key stops. I don't think this Saints defense has much of a shot at slowing this Chiefs offense. I will keep this a 2.5% since I don't normally like to play poor defenses as road favorites but I just think KC has to much offense with or without Holmes LOSS

MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at GREEN BAY (4 - 4): Play On Green Bay -4 4 Star 11/14/2004 3:15:00 PM

The Packers have allowed a total of 44 points in their three-game winning streak after yielding 142 in the first five games. I like the better balance with Green Bay and their improving defense to get the win at home vs. the Vikings coming off a very tough loss Monday Night at Indianapolis. Short week for the Vikings who will again be without Moss and must go on the road again. Farve and Green get it done for the Packers who will be able to control the ball and clock with the more effective running game and with an improving defense will come up with key stops at home. Take the Packers as my afternoon Premium Play. This is a 3.5% Play

Buzz
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