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**InsiderEdge** · 10-31-2004, 11:42 AM

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**InsiderEdge** · 10-31-2004, 08:38 PM

Unfortunately, the play we gave out for free ended up being the only loser on the Sunday card. A 4-1 day makes it a 9-2-1 last two days in football. What hurts is the fact that Washington scored the go ahead touchdown with just over 2 minutes left but it was called back because of illegal motion, costing them a possible win and a possible 5-0 sweep for IES members. We have a release all set for Monday Night Football – join the best and hottest service around, you won’t be disappointed.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins 1:00 PM ET

Washington Redskins +2.5 –107 (2 Units)

The Redskins are coming off a bye week and catch a Green Bay team that has won their last two games in blowout fashion. The public loves these teams especially laying such a small number. Beside the NY Jets on Monday night, the Packers are the biggest betting side this weekend at 89% at one major book and at 85% on offshore reports. The Washington offense has had troubles scoring but the defense has made up for it, holding their last 3 opponents to 14.7 ppg. Brett Favre is not healthy as his right hand is swollen and black and blue after he sprained it Sunday against Dallas.

The Green Bay run defense has improved in their last two games but it really isn’t saying much. Neither the Lions, who featured rookie Kevin Jones , Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner , or the Cowboys with Eddie George and Richie Anderson can be considered top-notch rushing offenses. This Sunday, the run defense gets its biggest test yet as they face Clinton Portis who is ready to bust out. They need Portis to do just that to get Mark Brunell some time in the pocket since he has not had any sort of protection recently. In the two games Portis has rushed for over 100 yards, Washington has won. The Packers' secondary is ripe for the picking as long as Brunell gets decent protection. The Redskins could catch a break if Packers cornerback Al Harris and safety Darren Sharper are unable to play effectively on sprained knees. They will be tempted to attack a revamped, young Packers secondary if they can't play. The Packers pass defense is 9th in the NFC in yards allowed but they are 14th in efficiency, allowing a rating of 101.2. Brunell might be ready for a big game here. Green Bay will look to the running game to lead the offense with the injury to Favre but even that is banged up. Ahman Green (Achilles) and Najeh Davenport (hamstring) continue to battle injuries and while both expected to play, neither are at 100%. The Redskins have the top rated run defense in the league entering play this week. Pressure to Favre will be the key on passing downs and the Redskins will blitz anyone in any situation and they are not afraid to take risks. The week off could not have come at a better time for Washington, for the mental aspect if not anything else.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills –3.5 –110 (2 Units)

The Cardinals have lost 16 consecutive road games since 2002 and we will ride that streak today with a very short price at home for the Bills. Buffalo has struggled on offense, but its defense has given up 16 or fewer points four times. The Bills rank third against the rush and are fifth overall. The Bills defense has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and will look to stop veteran Emmitt Smith who is having a very good season. The Bills may be 1-5 but they have not lost to any cupcakes at home. The five teams that have beaten the Bills - Jacksonville, Oakland, New England, the New York Jets and Baltimore - are 22-10.

The Bills need a spark on offense. They are moving the ball but they just aren’t getting the ball into the endzone. Red-zone failures were the difference in Sunday's 20-6 loss at Baltimore. The Bills were inside the Ravens' 20-yard line four times and couldn't get into the end zone. The Bills have given the ball away four times in the red zone. Another possession ended when running back Travis Henry was stopped on a fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter of Buffalo's 13-10 loss at Oakland. The Bills had one offensive touchdown in three red-zone visits during their 20-13 win over Miami two weeks ago, though their last possession ended when they let the game clock expire. Willis McGahee will get the start at running back for Buffalo. The Bills, who have struggled with their passing game, hope McGahee can provide the offense with a push. McGahee has had 211 of his 239 rushing yards this season in the Bills’ last three games. ''We're just trying to get a spark,'' head coach Mike Mularkey said. ''If that's what it takes, it's not the only position it may happen to. But right now hopefully it's the spark in the run game that gets us going.'' The Cardinals are allowing nearly five yards a carry. The Bills should be able to establish the run, which will allow them to control the game's pace. Arizona will not find much on offense against the tough Bills defense. Josh McCown has been sacked 19 times in the first six games, resulting in six fumbles so pressure to him will be big. Part of the reason is an offensive line in disarray. Cardinals coach Dennis Green has demoted veteran offensive line assistant Bob Wylie, and re-assigned him to a rather nondescript role in the scouting department. Former NFL offensive lineman Everett Lindsay, who had no coaching experience at any level before last month, will replace Wylie. The team's penalty problem remains a major detriment. They have committed 43 on offense, which stop drives, and 49 on defense that keep opponents' drives alive.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans –1 –110 (2 Units)

The Texans are a few plays from being 4-2 or even 5-1 and would certainly be in the mix in the suddenly competitive AFC South with a win this week. The offense is gaining confidence every week and should be able to find success through the air against Jacksonville. Even with the win last week, the Jaguars' secondary was torched for 368 yards against the Colts. A letdown is more than possible here off that huge win. Houston trails the Jaguars by two-and-a-half in the AFC South, and a victory could put them in the playoff hunt. A loss could leave only a wild-card chase.

The bye week could no have come at a better time for the Texans as they had time to heal. Domanick Davis, who has been nagged by injuries most of the season, was the biggest beneficiary of the time off. The running game will keep the Jaguars' pass rush honest and help give David Carr a little more time to get the ball downfield. After ranking next-to-last in both categories in 2003, Houston is eighth in the NFL in total offense and seventh in passing offense. The Texans have scored 20 or more points in five of their six games. Everyone is aware of the job Byron Leftwich had done in the fourth quarter this season but they may not be aware that Carr has a 126.6 fourth-quarter passer rating. The Texans are the only AFC team with four players with at least 200 receiving yards. The Jaguars are waiting for RB Fred Taylor to reach his normal production level, although he will be slowed by a quadriceps injury if he even plays at all. He has not been the back they though thus far and it doesn’t look good for him on Sunday. The Texans will welcome Eric Brown back to the starting lineup. The veteran strong safety missed three games and most of two others while recovering from a knee injury. Coach Dom Capers made the announcement following Friday's practice, and as far as Brown is concerned, the timing could not be better. Leftwich and the Jacksonville offense has had success opening things up and Brown will play a big part in shutting that down. The Texans are third in the league with nine interceptions, including three interceptions by rookie first-round draft pick Dunta Robinson. A win for Houston also would provide some much-needed momentum with the Texans' next two games on the road against the Broncos and Colts.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 PM ET

Carolina Panthers +8 –105 (2 Units)

Both teams come into this game following bad starts to the season. Seattle has dropped three straight games and that overtime loss to St. Louis three weeks back might have really done a number on their mentality. They return back home for the first tome since then but they really are a team that is messed up and to be favored by a touchdown over anyone now might be a stretch. The Panthers are not living up to their Super Bowl season as injuries have cut into their return success. The defense is playing well, ranked 10th overall in the NFL and that will be the difference here.

Seattle was dominant in its first three games, beating the Saints, Bucs and 49ers by a combined 65-13. Those teams are a combined 6-14 and while the Panthers come in just 1-5, they are still the defending NFC Champions and have a ton of pride on their side. Offensively, the Panthers look decimated with injuries but they aren’t as bad as it looks. Running back Brandon Bennett signed a free-agent contract on Tuesday and will take some of the workload away from Brad Hoover, who gained 99 yards last week but might not be ready to carry the ball 30 times. In five seasons with Cincinnati, Bennett played in 74 games and rushed for 1,127 yards and five touchdowns on 306 carries. He also caught 90 passes for 756 yards and one touchdown so he does have some nice experience. Although LB Chad Brown is expected to return, the Seahawks are still thin at the position and vulnerable to the run. Quarterback Jake Delhomme can be dangerous throwing downfield to wide receivers Muhsin Muhammad and Keary Colbert. This is especially true against a defense that will be attacking up front and leaving receivers in single coverage. Defensively, if the Panthers can rattle Matt Hasselbeck and contribute to the Seahawks' sense of panic, they might be able to pull an upset. Head coach Mike Holmgren is taking complicated pass plays off the book for Hasselbeck and trying to run the ball more. Hasselbeck has lost his rhythm in the passing game and Carolina can take advantage. The Panthers are 3rd in the NFC in passing defense and 5th in pass efficiency defense, allowing opposing quarterbacks a 75.3 rating. The Seahawks, for a second consecutive year, are second in drops in the NFL. Pressure, the Panthers say now, might help explain why they've gone from a Super Bowl team to last place in the NFC South. Without even realizing it, they might have placed too much pressure on themselves. The slow start might have lifted the pressure and that's a positive the Panthers have now. They have devoted themselves so go play loose and relaxed and simply have fun again. The Panthers remain serious about righting their season, but they also realize it might be time to relax just a bit.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers 4:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 –105 (2 Units)

The streak has to end sometime and this is a really good spot for it to happen. The Steelers are playing some great football with rookie Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and even though this will be his biggest test this season, he has the defense that will keep it close for him and the offense. New England keeps winning despite injuries than continue to pile up. A running game that they have not had in the past will be most affected this Sunday. Running back Corey Dillon has been hampered by a thigh injury and his status has gone from probable to questionable. Running back Patrick Pass is also questionable with a thigh injury. They will need to run to win and that will be a difficult task against the leagues 9th best run defense.

Roethlisberger has surprised the world. He's 4-0 as a starter. He's completed 78 of 113 passes for 937 yards and seven touchdowns. His quarterback rating is 100.1 (2nd in the AFC and 4th in the NFL) and his mental mistakes have been minimal. The Patriots are expected to give him lots of pressure with the blitz but Roethlisberger does well against the blitz. He's completed 17 of 29 for 247 yards and two touchdowns against blitzes. His quarterback rating in those situations is 95. His performance in Dallas, when he completed 21 of 25 attempts for 193 yards and a 125.5 passer rating, was the highest single-game completion percentage for a rookie (84.0) in NFL history. The Steelers have scored touchdowns on 82.4% of their trips inside the 20-yard line. Pittsburgh has a big advantage in special teams, which can provide those extra yards needed on both sides of the ball. The Steelers' special teams are adept at backing up the opposition with kicking and punting and setting up good field position with kickoff and punt returns. This season, Pittsburgh is fifth in the AFC in kickoff return average (22.3 yards per game) and second in opponent kickoff return average (18.3). The Steelers are seventh in the league in average drive start (kick receiving) with 29.5 yards and seventh in opponents' average drive start (kicking) with 25.3 yards. That is key to a team whose defense ranks seventh in the league (fifth in the AFC) in red-zone efficiency (38.5 percent). The Steelers believe in themselves and play this game at home, two important ingredients for an upset.

**Buzz** · 10-31-2004, 08:50 PM

Another excellent day Edge!!! Does not get much better than this.

Buzz

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