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**InsiderEdge** · 10-10-2004, 11:36 AM

Today’s 5-0 lineup:

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM ET
NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 PM ET

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**InsiderEdge** · 10-10-2004, 09:26 PM

A crazy day as we lose a heartbreaker with Houston in overtime but get one back with the 49ers. A 3-2 day ups our NFL mark to 19-9 for the season and 50-31 in football overall. We have a play for tomorrow night that includes the same information as below. It’s just the norm with us.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns +6 –106 (2 Units)

The Browns put together another nice effort at home last weekend to even their record at 2-2 but now it’s time to prove that they can do it on the road. They were manhandled in their last road against the Giants but played well in the game at Dallas prior to that. Pittsburgh improved to 3-1 with a win against the Bengals last week but we still aren’t sold on this team, especially as such a large chalk. The Steelers’ three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-9 record. This is expected to be a typical defensive battle so the additional points should come in handy as we see the game being decided by a field goal either way.

Talk out of Cleveland was that Sunday’s win over Washington may have been the best game Butch Davis has coached since taking over the Browns. Winning ugly is usually a byproduct of superior coaching. This is a pretty bold assumption seeing that if the Browns had started 1-3, the city would be calling for his head. If the Browns win, Davis and his crew will be in the ***** of contention in the AFC North, having already beaten the Ravens. They have been keeping their offense off the hook by playing exceptional defense, especially against the run. That same effort will come in handy as the Steelers will look to run all game long. If the Browns can stop the run, they win this game outright. If they can contain it, they will stay close. Either outcome is possible. The Browns have been much better versus the run than they were a season ago. They have held prominent backs such as the Ravens' Jamal Lewis and the Redskins' Clinton Portis to fewer than 60 yards rushing and overall on the season they have allowed a respectable 100.8 yards per game on the ground, good for 8th in the NFL. Negating the run was key to Cleveland victories in both those games. The Redskins offense had been getting better each week, gaining 291 yards against the Bucs, 322 against the Giants and 384 against the Cowboys. Against the Browns, Washington regressed to 265, a season low by 26 yards. The Redskins had the ball 13 times and nine of their possessions produced less than 10 yards. Another, the final series, netted 12 yards before Kevin Bentley jarred the ball loose from receiver LaVeranues Coles. For the Steelers, most of the faces on defense are familiar, but the offense is now in the hands of running back Duce Staley and rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Staley has been excellent this season but he is questionable with an infected toe. Jerome Bettis can expect to see more carries this week even if Staley does go. Browns defensive coordinator Dave Campo will disguise his coverage schemes and pressure Roethlisberger with blitzes to take advantage of his lack of experience. With RB Lee Suggs returning last week and starting ROT Ryan Tucker expected back this week, they are much more capable of establishing the run against the Steelers than they would have been a couple of weeks ago. The combination of Suggs, who rushed for 82 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdowns last week, and William Green at running back gives the Browns a chance to really wear the Steelers down with their ground attack. Quarterback Jeff Garcia is without the target he expected at tight end, so wideouts Andre' Davis, Quincy Morgan and Dennis Northcutt must make plays to have success in the passing game. Though the Browns have the 31st-ranked offense, averaging only 254 yards and 14.8 points a game, they have a plus-2 number in give-away/take-away. In his first stint as coordinator, Dick LeBeau popularized the "zone blitz." He was brought back to rev up the pass rush, but early returns are sketchy. After a Bill Cowher-era low 35 sacks last year, the defense is on pace for a mere 36. Not a great improvement. The run defense has been hit or miss also. The Ravens rushed for 172 yards against them and Bengals' RB Rudi Johnson ripped off 123 yards on 24 carries last week. As a team, they are allowing 105.5 ypg but take away the Dolphins 52 yards and that increases to 123.3 which knocks them down near the bottom. The Browns had a big win against the Redskins last week which will help the psyche of any team. They are getting healthier with the return of McCutcheon, Henry and Suggs and the possible return of Warren and Tucker this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 –117 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay needs something good to happen and they might have found a solution. The Bucs are going with Chris Simms at quarterback on Sunday. Though it's a little bit of a surprise the Bucs made this move, something was needed because they are averaging only 12.3 points and 81 rushing yards a game. The Bucs were successful moving the ball in Sunday's 16-13 loss to the Denver Broncos however the offense struggled once again to get the ball in the end zone. Simms played very well in the preseason going 42-61 (68.9) for 432 yards and just one interception. He gives the Bucs a stronger arm and more mobility and in his NFL debut, he completed 21-32 passes for 175 yards. New Orleans continues to fight amongst themselves while they just added another cancer in CB Mike McKenzie.

The Saints have had major problems stopping the run, so figure head coach Jon Gruden to use Michael Pittman more as a running back to test that problem. The Bucs got a boost last week when Pittman returned from his three-game suspension and rushed for 72 yards on 15 carries. Pittman is powerful runner who can help wear down a Saints front seven that has a tendency to get tired versus offenses that run right at it. Tampa Bay could have decent success running the ball and throwing it underneath. The Saints are allowing 159.5 yards a game on the ground, deal last in the NFC and 31st overall, and a 4.8 yard per carry average, which is 12th worst in the NFC. The Saints' struggles this season have often been because of offensive miscues and a defense that wears down quickly versus the run when the opponent gets extra opportunities. Simms still has a lot to prove. But it's hard to imagine him doing much worse than the Bucs have inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Tampa Bay is 1-for-7 inside the red zone, the worst touchdown ratio in the league. Simms' mobility may give Gruden more plays in terms of rollouts or bootlegs near the goal line, providing a run-pass option. The defense still is among the NFL's best, ranked sixth overall and having allowed just one offensive touchdown in three of four games. The Bucs' defense has been at its best versus the pass so far this season. The Bucs' pass rush isn't nearly as explosive as it once was, but RDE Simeon Rice will present some problems for LOT Wayne Gandy in terms of speed off the edge. If the Bucs can use their mismatches to get pressure on QB Aaron Brooks without having to blitz too often it will give them a great advantage in this matchup. As far as rushing, the unit has given up an average of 127 yards per game, but that statistic doesn't accurately represent the play of this unit, as teams are running the ball a lot more with leads they have established in the four games that the Bucs have lost. The Bucs played with a lot more discipline last week and were able to hold Denver RB Quentin Griffin to just 66 yards on 21 carries. Without premier RB Deuce McAllister in the lineup again this week, however, the Saints lack the offensive balance to put any team away. RB Aaron Stecker simply lacks the burst, speed and power to exploit those holes as consistently as McAllister could. And then there is Brooks who is complaining yet again. Pretty soon the players are going to quit on their quarterback. After their debacle last weekend in Arizona, Brooks lashed out. "I have to sit back and re-evaluate my situation here in New Orleans," he said. "I am going to keep fighting until the change comes." A team doesn’t need a leader like that as the passing game is already a concern. Injuries to receivers Joe Horn, Jerome Pathon and Talman Gardner have led to increasing disappointment in rookie Devery Henderson. Henderson, who held out for nine days of training camp, has never caught up to his teammates, and head coach Jim Haslett doesn’t believe Henderson can be trusted at this point. There are internal problems with the Saints that go beyond Brooks. Mike McKenzie's replacement at left cornerback in Green Bay, Michael Hawthorne, and nose tackle Grady Jackson, both left what they considered a bad situation in New Orleans last year for a second shot in Green Bay. Jackson found it ironic that McKenzie went to the Saints for similar reasons. "The only thing I can say is the grass ain't always greener," Jackson said. "Best of luck to him. The grass might look green, but it's not." While it may look like Tampa has given up this season with all of the playing time the younger guys are getting, they haven’t given up yet nor will they give up on Gruden. "We have been unable to take one home. It's a problem right now. We have to break through ... and hopefully this is the week. It is a concern, but I think this team knows how to win. We have a lot of winners. We just have to find a way to win," Gruden said. "I don't think the film lies. These guys are playing hard. They are exhausted walking out of the stadium, and they care. That's the greatest compliment I can give them."

NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM ET

Under 38 NY Giants/Dallas +100 (2 Units)

This series tends to be low scoring as 6 of the last 10 meetings have been under today’s posted number. There is definitely some value here as we have not seen a total this high in this series since 2000. The movement in this number is attributed to the Cowboys throwing the ball more this season but that should change come Sunday according to the team (more on this below). The Giants are flourishing in the running game, just as head coach Tom Coughlin likes, so don’t expect Kurt Warner to be airing it out much here. Both defenses are in the middle of the pack in the NFC but neither has yet to show what they are capable of. We expect them to beat up on each other in a defensive battle.

Through four games, the Giants rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yardage (148.2 per game) and second in yards per rush (5.0). Last week, they shredded Green Bay for 245 rushing yards. The Giants' offensive line has meshed a lot quicker than expected. Warner gets to work in a more balanced offense. Tiki Barber leads the NFC with 455 yards and he hasn't fumbled once. It should be a hardnosed game because Coughlin is going against his NFL mentor, Parcells. Though the Giants allowed five sacks in the opener at Philadelphia and rank next to last with 13, Warner has generally thrived while remaining quite healthy. His 93.8 passer rating is the league's eighth best and the only interception he's thrown was the result of strong coverage and a poor decision, not pocket pressure. The Cowboys' undersized front-seven isn't getting the help it needs from the safeties in run support, which is leading to the unit losing a lot of physical battles up front. So far this season, the Cowboys have surrendered an average of 122 yards per game on the ground, and you can bet that the Giants will look to exploit that weakness from the start. The Giants have turned the ball over three times while their defense has forced 13 turnovers. The plus-10 differential is the best in the NFL. The challenge for the Cowboys will be to establish a running attack to balance out their offense against a Giants run defense that limited the Packers to 81 total rushing yards and RB Ahman Green to 58 yards on 15 carries last week. Averaging 82.3 yards per game rushing, the Cowboys are on pace to set a franchise record for fewest rushing yards in a season. They have relied on their passing attack to move the offense this season but that might change come this Sunday. Parcells said that part of the problem is a lack of commitment to the running game on the part of offensive coaches, particularly himself. "Well, I would say my expectations for it are a little greater than what we've done so far," Parcells said. "Hopefully, we can improve and maybe we'll be a little bit more patient with it if we can." In the loss at Minnesota, Parcells said the score became too one-sided for the Cowboys to run the ball. Against Cleveland and Washington, the defenses stacked the line of scrimmage, forcing the Cowboys to throw. Having a more effective running game would help the offense, and Parcells wants to avoid "must-pass" situations Sunday against the Giants because of their ability to create turnovers. When the offensive line gives Testaverde time, he has been as effective as any NFL quarterback. Against Washington in Week 3, the Redskins applied a lot of pressure and rattled Testaverde. Defensive end Michael Strahan and pals must push the pocket back into Testaverde. The Cowboys should be able to move through the air with good consistency, but they struggle to finish drives. Testaverde has just three touchdown passes in three games and, with the running game virtually non-existent, defenses are really able to spread out in the shorter field when the Cowboys get down into the red zone. The Giants' defense is healthier and playing with a lot more consistency. Much attention has been given this week to Coughlin's use of a substitution system among his defensive linemen that was effective last Sunday against Green Bay. "We like to keep the guys moving in and out as best we can," Coughlin said. The Giants have good athletes at MLB with Kevin Lewis and WLB with Barrett Green, which will allow them to match up well against the Cowboys' tight ends and running backs. They also have good depth at cornerback with Will Peterson, Will Allen and Terry Cousin, which will provide them the capability of matching up well against the Cowboys' three-receiver sets. Both coaches prefer to run the ball and mix in the pass and play solid defense, stressing the mental aspect of the game.

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans +4.5 –110 (2 Units)

The Texans have won back-to-back games for the first time in team history as they have taken out the Chiefs and Raiders the last two weeks. They beat the Raiders physically last week, a very good sign, as they forced 5 turnovers. Minnesota is coming off a bye but they are hitting the road, a place they don’t like. Public money will be all over Minnesota as JQP knows there is no way Houston can win 3 straight games. We beg to differ as Reliant Stadium is becoming one of the toughest places for opposition with the noise levels. The crowd noise has caused 17 disrupted offensive plays in two games, including 12 false-start penalties.

The question is whether the Texans will handle being 2-2 better than they did last season, when they lost nine of their last 12 games and essentially removed themselves from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving. That was then, and quarterback David Carr suggested the Texans had different expectations. This is now, and head coach Dom Capers is confident he is dealing with a talented and more experienced team. The Texans' league-high 17 players on injured reserve last season no doubt contributed to the team falling apart after its 2-2 start. They have better depth this year and proved during the past two weeks that they are better equipped to handle injuries. Houston's run defense has been porous, giving up an average of 4.8 yards a carry, but that doesn't mean Minnesota will be able to exploit this weakness. The running game for the Viking is non-existent. Michael Bennett is still hurting and will miss another 2 games. The loss of recent starter Onterrio Smith to suspension will be felt hard. Smith has run for 198 yards and has a team-high 223 yards receiving. That leaves Minnesota with Moe Williams, who's also hurting, or rookie Mewelde Moore. The Texans rank 26th in average rushing yards allowed. As displeasing as that might be, it's actually better than 2002, when they ranked 28th, and 2003, when they were 31st. It's also worth noting the Texans have faced two of the best running backs in the game: Priest Holmes and San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson. Texans coach Dom Capers describes "big" running plays as gaining 15 yards or more. The Texans have surrendered only eight such plays through the first four games of the season, but six have come in the past two games — three each against Kansas City and Oakland, both wins for the Texans. The Vikings will be throwing a lot and the key for the Texans will be the play of the safeties. FS Marcus Coleman made a big play two weeks ago and there is an outside chance SS Eric Brown could return from a knee injury. The safeties will be needed to help out with Randy Moss who has an advantage over Aaron Glenn. Besides Moore, a second rookie will start for the Vikings offense. Nat Dorsey, starts at right tackle for the injured Mike Rosenthal. The Texans need more production from their pass rush, and this week they should have success against Dorsey. Like Kerry Collins last week, Culpepper is mistake prone and a good rush could help increase his five lost fumblers already this season. The Texans cannot get into a shootout with the Vikings, and to keep the game manageable they will have to control the ball. While the Texans would like to gets Domanick Davis back, Houston will look to establish its ground game working against a Minnesota defense dealing with some injuries of its own regardless of who is in the game. Jonathan Wells did an excellent job filling in for Davis last week so while there is a dropoff if Davis doesn’t go, it isn’t that steep. Running the ball effectively is critical because it helps keep the Vikings' explosive offense off the field and takes some pressure off of Carr. Last week, the Texans rushed a franchise-high 40 times for 162 yards against a Raiders defensive line that included Warren Sapp and Ted Washington. The Vikings don’t have anyone close to the caliber of those two. Minnesota is ranked 10th in rushing defense, allowing 102.7 ypg but they give it up in big chunks. They are allowing 4.7 ypc which is 22nd in the NFL and the Texans can take advantage of this. To help the running game even more, Minnesota MLB E. J. Henderson and WLB Chris Claiborne are both out. Carr is gaining more confidence running the Texans offense, and he will try to exploit the height advantage receiver Andre Johnson has on the Vikings' relatively short cornerbacks. In Sunday's victory over the Raiders, the Texans used a blend of ball-control offense and turnover-inducing defense to finish with the third-highest yardage total (386) in team history. The Texans forced Oakland to match them score for score before pulling away in the second half.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers –1 –105 (2 Units)

This game is basically the season for San Francisco. Lose this one and they are playing for next year but win it and they could carry some momentum going out on the road. Arizona is off a big home win. This is a young team for Arizona and how they react coming off a blowout win hasn’t been determined yet. In most cases, it’s followed up with a clunker. The Cardinals have lost 15 straight road games dating back to 2002 and while they have fought hard in both road games this season, facing a hungry 49ers team will not be easy.

San Francisco needs to get RB Kevan Barlow more involved. Getting him more carries should take some pressure off the passing game. The 49es fell behind early when playing against the Seahawks and Rams. As a result, Barlow became a non-factor, carrying the ball just 25 times for 64 yards over the last eight quarters of play. In a two-point loss to Atlanta and a three-point loss to New Orleans, Barlow got 19 and 20 carries, respectively. This week's game plan must include getting the ball to Barlow at least 20 times. The Cardinals have not been able to stop the run at all as they are giving up 145.8 ypg and 5.1 ypc which are both 30th in the league. The defense as a whole is ranked 25th, allowing 347.3 ypg but they have been able to allow only a surprisingly low 14 ppg. The 49ers offense isn’t as explosive as it has been but they match up well and should be able to surpass their 15 ppg season average. Last week QB Tim Rattay completed 31 of 41 passes for 299 yards and two scores in his first start since sustaining a separated shoulder in the season opener. It’s good that he has a game under his belt before this one, which is much more winnable. The 49ers can expect to see a steady diet of eight-man fronts as the Cardinals will look to clamp down on the running game first. This will help Rattay to open up the passing game, that is currently ranked 13th in the league. The defense has not been playing up to expectations but there are reasons for it. The 49ers are underrated defensively, especially against the run. They should have some success limiting the production of the aging Emmitt Smith. As a result, Josh McCown and the non-existent Cardinal passing game will need to come up with a couple of big plays for Arizona to keep pace. The 49ers are 7th in the NFC in rushing defense, allowing 108 ypg. That number is inflated due to teams grabbing leads and running the ball more. San Francisco is allowing just 3.5 ypc, which is good for 3rd in the NFC and 5th in the NFL. Rookie Shawntae Spencer will replace Mike Rumph at cornerback but it shouldn’t be a concern. He is a big, physical corner that can muscle WR Bryant Johnson out of his routes. With SS Tony Parrish figuring to give safety help over the top for the majority of the game, Arizona won't be able to target Spencer in the vertical passing game. To top it off, the Cardinals lack depth at receiver. Most of the problems can't be blamed on the new coordinator, because the 49ers' slow starts and turnovers on offense also have hurt the defense. San Francisco has been outscored 48-3 in the first quarters of its four losses, with opponents repeatedly getting outstanding field position thanks to turnovers. Arizona just does not have the type of team that can do something similar. This team is extremely young as four picks from the 2004 draft start for the Cardinals - wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, strongside linebacker Karlos Dansby, center Alex Stepanovich and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett.

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