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  • Nfl Goodies

    dt


    NFL Rank by [weighted] Net Total Yardage (Top Ten):

    1- Broncos
    2- Patriots
    3- Redskins
    4- Seahawks
    5- Jets
    6- Panthers
    7- Vikings
    8- Raiders
    9- Cowboys
    10- Steelers
    (Eagles #11)

    AFC GAME: BRONCOS vs PATRIOTS
    NFC GAME: REDSKINS vs SEAHAWKS
    SUPERBOWL: BRONCOS vs REDSKINS
    SB WINNER: BRONCOS


    NFL Rank by [weighted] Net Points Scored (Top Ten):

    1- Seahawks
    2- Eagles
    3- Colts
    4- Falcons
    5- Patriots
    6- Jets
    7- Broncos
    8- Ravens
    9- Giants
    10- Raiders

    AFC GAME: COLTS vs PATRIOTS
    NFC GAME: SEAHAWKS vs EAGLES
    SUPERBOWL: SEAHAWKS vs COLTS
    SB WINNER: SEAHAWKS


    NFL Rank by [weighted] Net Total Yardage/Net Points Scored Combined (Top Ten):

    1- Seahawks
    2- Patriots
    3- Broncos
    4- Jets
    5- Eagles
    6- Falcons
    7/8t- Vikings
    7/8t- Raiders
    9/10t- Panthers
    9/10t- Colts

    AFC GAME: PATRIOTS vs BRONCOS
    NFC GAME: SEAHAWKS vs EAGLES
    SUPERBOWL: SEAHAWKS vs PATRIOTS
    SB WINNER: SEAHAWKS


    NFL Rank by [weighted] Net Total Yardage/Net Points Scored/Net Turnovers Combined (Top Ten):

    1- Seahawks
    2- Jets
    3- Patriots
    4- Falcons
    5/6t- Giants
    5/6t- Eagles
    7- Colts
    8- Steelers
    9- Broncos
    10- Vikings

    AFC GAME: JETS vs PATRIOTS
    NFC GAME: SEAHAWKS vs FALCONS
    SUPERBOWL: SEAHAWKS vs JETS
    SB WINNER: SEAHAWKS

    IN CASE YOU'RE WONDERING: Mysteriously abscent from the Top Ten in ANY of the 4 categories is the 3-0 Jacksonville Jaguars with their stingy defense and late-game heroics. They are #29 in yards, #12 in scoring, and #21 combined. They are #17 combined if the turnovers are factored in.

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    dave
    http://spreadreport.tripod.com
    [email protected]
    228-424-6990

    Last Night Comps: 2-1/+1.00 with NYY, OV ANA-TEX, TEX
    Tonight Free Comp: PITT PANTHERS +6.5 (be sure to check the site daily as sometimes I have more than one comp pick!)

    In the 4 Scenarios above, I want to look at what would seemingly be the most plausible. First I'll look at the AFC Game. The 4 matchups presented are Jets-Pats, Colts-Pats, and Broncos-Pats twice. I'll give the nod to the Broncos-Pats since they come up twice. In the NFC the matchups are Hawks-Falcons, Hawks-Skins, and Hawks-Eagles twice. Again I'll give the nod to the Hawks-Eagles since it comes up twice.

    Cross-referencing the AFC and NFC with those two matchups finds that the only common setting is Net Yardage/Net Points Combined (not considering turnovers). That makes sense to me as the t.o.'s can swing either way, especially this early in the season, where as looking at yardage and scoring is the result that will more consistently balance out with good teams.

    In that setting you would have the Eagles vs Seahawks and Pats vs Broncos. Man, that's good football. But I gotta' figure these numbers will be different three weeks from now and even more different late in the season. Or maybe not. In any case, here's a rundown of all 32 teams from the category of choice, namely, net yardage and net points combined:

    1- Seahawks
    2- Patriots
    3- Broncos
    4- Jets
    5- Eagles
    6- Falcons
    7t- Vikings
    7t- Raiders
    9t- Panthers
    9t- Colts

    11- Redskins
    12- Giants
    13- Steelers
    14- Cowboys
    15- Ravens
    16- Titans

    17- Packers
    18t- Bills
    18t- Bears
    18t- Texans
    21- Jaguars
    22- Rams

    23- Saints
    24- Lions
    25- Bucs
    26t- Bengals
    26t- Chargers
    28- 49ers
    29t- Browns
    29t- Chiefs
    31- Dolphins
    32- Cardinals

    Remember, these rankings are only based on 3 weeks. I expect a lot of "Corrections" this week...

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    dave
    228-424-6990
    [email protected]
    http://spreadreport.tripod.com

    Here is a list of the Top Ten Best Net Yardage Teams and the Bottom Ten. The figures are weighted:

    Top Ten:

    1- Broncos +130.40 (avg per game)
    2- Patriots +91.86
    3- Redskins +86.97
    4- Seahawks +84.82
    5- Jets +68.81
    6- Panthers +50.95
    7- Vikings +50.58
    8- Raiders +48.04
    9- Cowboys +44.61
    10- Steelers +37.77

    Bottom Ten:

    32- Cardinals -140.13
    31- Browns -120.30
    30- Lions -118.36
    29- Jaguars -63.03
    28- Chargers -48.48
    27- Dolphins -44.38
    26- Saints -38.71
    25- Bears -31.16
    24- Chiefs -27.03
    23- Bengals -23.53

    Don't forget I'll be doing my NFL FORMULA III TRACKING Beginning Week Seven. I'll be using 3 Brand New NFL Formulas which I have developed but never put to the test against PAST DATA. I want to do something different and test against VIRGIN DATA LIVE as the Season rolls on. It oughta' be fun. The Results Page is all ready to go and I'll be posting those results at the forum weekly. The picks from the Three Formulas will be posted for viewing Mid-Week at my site. Here's a paste of the Results page:

    I have recently developed 3 NFL Formulas that I want to put to the test.

    Usually I research my Formulas versus past results. For these 3 new NFL Formulas, I want to test them FIRST against virgin data this season. If they do okay, THEN I will go back in past seasons without altering the criteria.

    That way there will be no tweaking or backfitting--just posting the games at my site Mid-Week according to the criteria.

    What I want to do is test 3 different formulas and track the results this season at the forum. These are not Spread Report games and have nothing to do with the other formulas that will be in my SRO.

    In addition to tracking them separately, I want to also track how they do when 2 or more agree. And of course, I'll do the usual and break down the results into Dogs, Faves, Division, Non-Division, Home, Road, and all that good stuff.

    In addition, I will break down the results according to categorical ratings. The plays begin Week Seven.

    I do not recommend wagering on the games, but I do expect that "level 3" categories will either win or break even. These are simply experimental. Here's the blueprint...


    NFL FORMULA III Tracking

    1.) FORMULA III-Y

    RATE 0.01-49.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 50.00-74.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 75.00-99.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 100.00-149.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 150.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ALL RATINGS FORMULA III-Y:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    2.) FORMULA III-T

    RATE 0.01-0.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 1.00-1.49:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 1.50-1.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 2.00-2.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 3.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ALL RATINGS FORMULA III-T:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0


    3.) FORMULA III-P

    RATE 1.00-2.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 3.00-5.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 6.00-6.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 7.00-9.99:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    RATE 10.00>:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ALL RATINGS FORMULA III-P:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ANY 2 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Y+T AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    Y+P AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    T+P AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ALL 3 AGREE:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    ALL 3 AGREE, EACH HAVING A LEVEL 3 RATING OR HIGHER:

    HM: 0-0; RD: 0-0; FV: 0-0; DG: 0-0; DV: 0-0; NO: 0-0
    HF: 0-0; HD: 0-0; RF: 0-0; RD: 0-0
    DHF: 0-0; DHD: 0-0; DRF: 0-0; DRD: 0-0
    NHF: 0-0; NHD: 0-0; NRF: 0-0; NRD: 0-0
    ALL: 0-0

    dave
    228-424-6990
    [email protected]
    http://spreadreport.tripod.com

  • #2
    Team...Net Yards....Net Turnovers...Net Points Scored....Rank NY...Rank NT....Rank NPS...Rank ALL 3...Rank NY+NPS


    Ari.....-140.13.....+1.20.....-6.80.....32.....5.....28..........23.............. 32

    Atl.....+23.39.....+0.95.....+7.35.....13.....7... ..4...........4..............6

    Bal.....-22.60.....+0.89.....+6.06.....22.....8.....8...... ........11.............15

    Buf.....-8.14.....-0.53.....-3.00.....18.....22.....21..............22......... ..18t

    Car.....+50.95.....-0.93.....+1.23.....6.....27.....13.............13. ...........9t

    Chi.....-31.16.....-0.15.....+0.59.....25.....18.....14............20. ............18t

    Cin.....-23.53.....-0.39.....-6.35.....23.....20.....27.............28.......... ..26t

    Cle.....-120.30.....+0.05.....-3.89.....31.....14.....23..........25t............ 29t

    Dal.....+44.61.....-0.91.....-1.73.....9.....24t.....18.............16.......... .14

    Den.....+130.40.....-0.91.....+6.35.....1.....24t.....7............9... .........3

    Det.....-118.36.....+1.53.....-1.34.....30.....4.....16.............15..........2 4

    Grb.....+28.38.....-0.52.....-6.09.....12.....21.....26.............21.......... 17

    Hou.....+17.36.....-1.82.....-4.85.....14.....29.....25............25t.......... 18t

    Ind.....+5.10.....+0.80.....+9.10.....16.....9.... .3.................7.............9t

    Jax.....-63.03.....+0.71.....+2.34.....29.....11.....12.... .........17...........21

    Kan.....-27.03.....+0.58.....-7.67.....24.....13.....30..............24......... ...29t

    Mia.....-44.38.....-2.38.....-7.68.....27.....31.....31...............32........ .31

    Min.....+50.58.....-0.14.....+3.44.....7.....16t.....11..............1 0..........7t

    Nwe.....+91.86.....-0.07.....+7.28.....2.....15.....5................3 ............2

    Nor.....-38.71.....+0.76.....-1.90.....26.....10.....19..............19......... ..23

    Gia.....+13.21.....+2.84.....+4.42.....15.....1... ..9.................5t.........12

    Jet.....+68.81.....+2.60.....+6.47.....5.....2.... .6..................2...........4

    Oak.....+48.04.....-0.91.....+3.93.....8.....24t.....10.............12 ..........7t

    Phi.....+36.53.....+0.62.....+14.15.....11.....12. ....2..............5t.........5

    Pit.....+37.77.....+1.01.....-0.97.....10.....6.....15.................8........ ...13

    Stl.....-13.14.....-1.91.....-4.76.....20.....30.....24..... ...........30.............22

    Sdg.....-48.48.....-0.17.....-3.78.....28.....19.....22................27....... .....26t

    Sfo.....-15.12.....-2.47.....-14.50.....21.....32.....32...............31....... ....28

    Sea.....+84.82.....+2.47.....+18.29.....4.....3... ..1..................1...........1

    Tam.....-9.47.....-0.57.....-6.86.....19.....23.....29.................29...... .....25

    Ten.....-1.69.....-0.14.....-2.90.....17.....16t.....20.................18..... ....16

    Was.....+86.97.....-1.70.....-1.40.....3.....28.....17.................14....... ..11


    dave

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