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2004 Spread Report Online Archives
Week One
Greetings...
Football is FINALLY here! And I'll kick it all off with my Superbowl projection: BALTIMORE RAVENS vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
For a thorough write up, see my NFL Preview which you should have already received. If not, email me and I'll send it out to ya'.
Please keep in mind that although this issue is out Wednesday, the SRO will normally go out on Thursdays.
Let me address three basic FAQ's that will help understand, use, and maximize the usage of the Spread Report Online:
1.) What is it?
2.) How to use it?
3.) What should I expect?
1.) What is it?
The SRO is an INFORMATION online sheet. Much like a pointwise or goldsheet, the SRO contains first and foremost INFORMATION in aiding your ultimate selection process. It will contain a few of my Top Plays in College and Pro Football.
2.) How should I use it?
That is, should I use just the Top Plays or the formulas or what? The Top Plays are my official picks after going over the entire board and making final conclusions. The formulas are fun to track and generally do one of three things:
A.) They have a small or average winning season.
B.) They break even or lose a small amount.
C.) They have a 'break out' year--a HUGE winning season with a high win percentage.
Because the Formulas are grounded in solid rationale, I do not expect them to have 'bad' seasons--meaning disasterous. A typical 'bad' season is break even or small loser--maybe only juice burner. For that reason, I like to think you can use them in aiding you in your selection process (beyond the Top Plays which I have given).
Or, you can play small amounts on the forumulas with the confidence that by season's end you're probably going to win or atleast not lose much--if any--while at the same time having the opportunity to cash in on a 'break out' season.
3.) What should I expect?
Regarding the formulas and systems, expect the same as last year; namely, a mix of some of them continuing to do well while some of them might be around 50/50 or a small juice burner. But as a whole, I expect them to win like they did last year.
RATINGS:
I do not rate my games anymore. All plays are the same. If you like playing 1-2%, fine. If you like playiing 5%, that's up to you. But they Top Plays are rated the same with the exception of an occasional DOUBLE PLAY which means just what it implies.
For grading purposes, I will grade my Top Play record according to the line at the time I send it. In short, find it or buy it. Or not. But the official record will be graded by the line that I post with the plays at the time it is sent.
I'm looking forward to a good season and thank you again for your support. Let's get started!
Week One
-----------------------------
01.) NFL Real Number Formula:
-----------------------------
Plays begin Week Four and Run through Week Seven
-------------------------
02.) NFL Yardage Formula:
-------------------------
Plays begin Week Four
--------------------------
03.) NFL Turnover Formula:
--------------------------
Plays begin Week Four
-------------------------------
04.) NFL Turnover Super System:
-------------------------------
Plays begin Week Two
-----------------------------
05.) NFL Rush Yardage System:
-----------------------------
Plays begin Week Two
-------------------------
06.) NFL Blowout Formula:
-------------------------
Plays begin Week Seven
--------------------
07.) NFL Commentary:
--------------------
Colts @ PATS
At the end of last season I was already thinking Colts for the next year. Well next year is now this year, and while I do not think they will go all the way, I do think the Colts with points is attractive. Only problem is that they play at New England where the Pats defense proved to be impregnable last season.
Hard to go against Pats at home at the cheap price of -3, and hard to lay anything to Manning and the Colts who continue to get better with each passing year. But New England did not look like the same Pre-Season Pats we're use to seeing from Belichick. Granted he rested his starters in game four, but since when did that matter with New England--a team built and bred on depth?
I could be very wrong, but something seems "not right" in the Patriots camp at this point, so we'll lean toward Indy: COLTS +3
Titans @ DOLPHINS
Tennessee was one of five AFC teams to fit the mold of my SB Winning Teams according to historical criteria. The Dolphins on the other hand have lost Williams and inked Wannstedt, both of which are somewhat demoralizing. However, keep in mind that Miami is one of the best--if not THE best--opening day teams in the league regardless of what their pre-season expectations are.
That's a word of warning to Tenny backers. The game looks far too easy to me with the Titans looking like a very obvious play. That may prove to be true, but the Titans have had their own share of lost personel also, and Wannstedt might feel the need to silence, right of the bat, those who would suggest he'll use the loss of Williams as a built-in excuse before the season even begins: PASS
Raiders @ STEELERS
Both teams had respectable pre-season numbers. The Steelers could be a sleeper this year, and historically are pretty good home faves vs not-so-good teams. But that record is inflated by the fact that it is truer vs division foes. That fact could be countered by the fact that it's high time Cowher get this team back in the black no matter the opponent. While Cowher is not typically a fast starter, I give a huge edge in coaching to him. Not a big believer in Norv Turner when it comes to winning. Lean to: STEELERS -4
Bucs @ REDSKINS
Interesting early season matchup. I've got both these teams figured as contenders with the Bucs as my NFC SB choice while believing the Redskins need a year under their belt w/Gibbs. That alone would suggest taking the Bucs plus a couple points. But let's not forget that even in his SB year in 2002 Gruden lost his opener. Initially I like the Bucs here, but the Redskins are extremely talented and could pull out a FG home win with Gibbs in his first game back: PASS
Ravens @ BROWNS
I really liked the Ravens here at first glance, but after the Browns qualified as a potential SB Winner according to historical criteria, it might be better to reconsider. Sometimes that historical pre-season criteria will give a false read, and this could be one of them with the Browns. Or not. Their receiving core is improved and Garcia is a welcome addition. Defense appears to have improved drasticly, but that could be deceiving. Better wait this one out. I like the Ravens to go all the way this year, but it's a long season and there's no need to force this play on Baltimore: PASS
Jaguars @ BILLS
I love the Jags this year. Not only did they qualify as a SB Winning team, but their defense is looking borderline invinsible. Bills defense is very respectable, but there offense is not likely to improve enough this early in the season to overcome the Jags front four. Jacksonville is the better team and the right play. They should win straight up: JAGUARS +3
Bengals @ JETS
Well the Bengals have managed to catch a case of Bugalitis again. Despite the fact that Dillon was not happy, he still was a competitor and a solid runner. His loss will hurt. On top of that, the Bungals have made the first bonehead move of the year by benching Kitna in his prime just when they started to win football games.
When Cincy beat the ever living crap out of the Pats in Week Two of Pre-season, I began to wonder if maybe I had misread the whole Bengal thing. But by the end of pre-season that win over NE did not look nearly as impressive as it did at first. Bengals have probs...again.
Contrast that with the Jets who will look to return to their 2002 form with a healthy Pennington and improved defense. The one thing that Herman Edwards is intent on doing is avoiding a slow start this year. He's been rather vocal about that. I think he will get his wish and get it BIG. Look for the Jets to put massive pressure on Palmer. This one could get ugly: JETS -4.5
Lions @ BEARS:
Tough call here as both teams look to be improved this season. I really like Lovie Smith's chances of turning the Bears around. I like even more Mariucci's chances of breaking the Lions Road curse in a game where that possibility is believable. Feel like the Lions are the more improved team and that the pressure for them to win this road opener is high. I think they will respond. In a toss up, we'll lean toward the points: LIONS +3
Cardinals @ RAMS
Be careful here. The Rams were 8-0 last year at home with an average win margin of about a hundred points. The Cardinals have lost what little hope they had via injuries. This looks way too easy. Two things come to mind: Dennis Green and Marc Bulger. Green may be able to get his disabled team to show up. Marc Bulger is a huge question mark as far as how he will respond in his first game as the Ram's un-challenged leader. Remember: Bulger has yet to prove he can win in pressure games. The pressure is on, be CAREFUL: PASS
Seahawks @ SAINTS
I saw somewhere a service had the Saints here as a 5* play. Let me say right off the bat, this game is one of two things in my opinion: Seahawks or Pass. The Hawks have high expectations this year and are perennial SB contenders. Let's not forget that was the SAME thing that was said prior to last year. As good as they are, the Seahawk's time may have come and gone. I would not be surprised is the Seahawks disappointed this year.
The Saints are hard to figure this year. Last year was pretty easy. They were unfocussed and without much motivation. This year, although their starters have not looked that good in pre-season, there seems to be an undercurrent of enthusiasm brewing as they are not as concerned about their late-season collapses as they are solving the problem. Saints could surprise this year, but until I see it, I'll stay away: PASS
Chargers @ TEXANS
The Texans figure to be vastly improved this season. I really like Dom Capers. Their defense is among the league's best and that will prove difficult for ANY of the Charger QB's to overcome. San Diego will probably be in the cellar of the NFL non-elite again. They may improve a little, but the bottom line is that some one has to lose. I like what the Texans have going on, and if not for the fact that it's hard to lay -4.5 with a losing team, I would have this one as a Top Play. I'll probably wish I would have as the Texans should control the clock, the line of scrimmage, and the score. Lean: TEXANS -4.5
Giants @ PHILLY
I'm just not high on the Eagles this year. They could blow the Giants off the map and no one will be surprised, but I do not think laying -9 is a good idea right now. Not until we see if they're going to tank this season--an outcome many are predicting, including me. Giants have a new coach and two new QB's, and I think Warner could surprise if the offensive line can beef it up just a tad. Don't hold your breath: PASS
Cowboys @ VIKINGS
Not crazy about laying points to Bill Parcells team, but off-season moves suggests desperation to some extent. Vikings look to forget last season's debacle and Parcells is a slow starter. Cowboys did not look half as good in pre-season as they did last year. Lean: VIKINGS -4.5
Falcons @ 49ERS
The 49ers look completely depleted and will probably battle the Bungals and Cards as the League's worst. But the Falcons are hyped beyond reason. If they had kept Reeves, I would be shuttering as a defensive coordinator. But instead they bring in a rookie coach and switch to a West Coast Offense. Vick was robbed of an offense that catered to his strengths. He was also thrown to the wolves in an offense that takes even the best QB's a while to learn. Way to go. The Falcons just went from potential contender to last place in the NFC South. Lean toward a Niner victory: 49ERS +3.5
Chiefs @ BRONCOS
Was crazy about Broncos originally, but they really disappointed in pre-season as Shanahan had his first losing Pre-Season in ten years. Chiefs new DC Gunther Cunningham could be just what the doctor ordered, but the results may not show up right away. Trend is huge in favor of Broncos, but that could change. I prefer a PASS, but since it's a Sunday nighter, we'll "lean" with the Trend and Shanny looking to save his job: BRONCOS -3
Packers @ PANTHERS
Here's another game I was crazy about until the PS results came in. Liking the Packers to win this NFC Championship shoulda-been game, I have to give more thought in view of the Panther's continued winning streak. Man they look strong. But it is of note that they did not make the SB Winning Teams list--only the Bucs made that list in the NFC this year.
This is a toss up for me. The Cats are so strong, so well-coached, and I can see them being even more hungry and more improved. However, they were not exactly great as faves last year, failing to cover in virtually every role as a fave while covering virtually every role as a dog. That's the kinda' ball they play.
I know this, it's do or die for Sherman, Farve, and the Packers. Their last-half success last year suggests that they were reaching a peak to be continued on into this season. But they looked flat in pre-season and their execution stinked, if that's a word. The good news is that they cut Tim Couch. Hey, that could be a morale booster. Gotta' go with the FG, but only a lean: PACKERS
-------------------
08.) NFL Top Plays:
-------------------
*JETS -4.5
*JAGS +3.0
--------------------
09.) NCAA Top Plays:
--------------------
Florida State @ MIAMI FL
Hurricanes took a hit in the draft while the Seminoles are in tact including Chris Rix's SR Season. Bobby Bowden once dominated this series but has lost 4 straight including a 2-pt loss in their Bowl Game last Season.
I like Florida State here. They are a Championship contender and will prove it by getting the Hurricanes out of the way right off the bat. If Bowden wins this one it's smooth sailing with the exception of road contests at NC State and Maryland. A split there and they could still make the big one.
This is the perfect spot for Bowden to exact his revenge and in so doing send a strong message to the Hurricanes: You're not gonna bounce into our conference and take over. Beautiful play, I do not expect it to be close. Look for FSU to win the game by 15 or more in my First DOUBLE PLAY of this early Season...
**Florida State +2 over MIAMI FL (DOUBLE PLAY)
Fresno State @ KANSAS STATE:
This is the most talented team in Pat Hill's already hugely successful reign as the Bulldogs Head Coach. Returning more letterman, more Seniors, and more starters than in his previous seven seasons, Fresno is going to pull of some big wins this year as evidenced right off the bat last week on the Road in Washington.
Don't look for them to letdown here. The Bulldogs are not only talented but they are pumped. They believe. A 10-win season would not surprise me at all, and in order to do that they'll have to knock off a couple heavy hitters.
I look for FSU to give K-State all they can handle in going for the SU win. Bulldogs are 16-3 ATS as non-con dogs. Meanwhile K-state has lost a bundle of Seniors, and their tendancy of blowing out lesser teams chilled a bit last year. Their gonna find out that just because they're favored by double-digits in this game does not mean they're playing one of those cupcake teams that Snyder likes to book and then beat up on.
Bulldogs might win this one Straight Up for real. If not, I expect them to give'm all they can handle...
*Fresno State +13 over KANSAS ST
---------------------------------------
10.) Dave's Props and Non-Traditionals:
---------------------------------------
None
*NOTE: All plays will be judged by the line as SENT. It is understood that lines will vary among subscribers, books, monitoring services, etc., for better or worse. Be smart, shop around if possible.
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THIS SATURDAY: College Football UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR
NEXT SATURDAY: College Football BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR
Week One
Greetings...
Football is FINALLY here! And I'll kick it all off with my Superbowl projection: BALTIMORE RAVENS vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
For a thorough write up, see my NFL Preview which you should have already received. If not, email me and I'll send it out to ya'.
Please keep in mind that although this issue is out Wednesday, the SRO will normally go out on Thursdays.
Let me address three basic FAQ's that will help understand, use, and maximize the usage of the Spread Report Online:
1.) What is it?
2.) How to use it?
3.) What should I expect?
1.) What is it?
The SRO is an INFORMATION online sheet. Much like a pointwise or goldsheet, the SRO contains first and foremost INFORMATION in aiding your ultimate selection process. It will contain a few of my Top Plays in College and Pro Football.
2.) How should I use it?
That is, should I use just the Top Plays or the formulas or what? The Top Plays are my official picks after going over the entire board and making final conclusions. The formulas are fun to track and generally do one of three things:
A.) They have a small or average winning season.
B.) They break even or lose a small amount.
C.) They have a 'break out' year--a HUGE winning season with a high win percentage.
Because the Formulas are grounded in solid rationale, I do not expect them to have 'bad' seasons--meaning disasterous. A typical 'bad' season is break even or small loser--maybe only juice burner. For that reason, I like to think you can use them in aiding you in your selection process (beyond the Top Plays which I have given).
Or, you can play small amounts on the forumulas with the confidence that by season's end you're probably going to win or atleast not lose much--if any--while at the same time having the opportunity to cash in on a 'break out' season.
3.) What should I expect?
Regarding the formulas and systems, expect the same as last year; namely, a mix of some of them continuing to do well while some of them might be around 50/50 or a small juice burner. But as a whole, I expect them to win like they did last year.
RATINGS:
I do not rate my games anymore. All plays are the same. If you like playing 1-2%, fine. If you like playiing 5%, that's up to you. But they Top Plays are rated the same with the exception of an occasional DOUBLE PLAY which means just what it implies.
For grading purposes, I will grade my Top Play record according to the line at the time I send it. In short, find it or buy it. Or not. But the official record will be graded by the line that I post with the plays at the time it is sent.
I'm looking forward to a good season and thank you again for your support. Let's get started!
Week One
-----------------------------
01.) NFL Real Number Formula:
-----------------------------
Plays begin Week Four and Run through Week Seven
-------------------------
02.) NFL Yardage Formula:
-------------------------
Plays begin Week Four
--------------------------
03.) NFL Turnover Formula:
--------------------------
Plays begin Week Four
-------------------------------
04.) NFL Turnover Super System:
-------------------------------
Plays begin Week Two
-----------------------------
05.) NFL Rush Yardage System:
-----------------------------
Plays begin Week Two
-------------------------
06.) NFL Blowout Formula:
-------------------------
Plays begin Week Seven
--------------------
07.) NFL Commentary:
--------------------
Colts @ PATS
At the end of last season I was already thinking Colts for the next year. Well next year is now this year, and while I do not think they will go all the way, I do think the Colts with points is attractive. Only problem is that they play at New England where the Pats defense proved to be impregnable last season.
Hard to go against Pats at home at the cheap price of -3, and hard to lay anything to Manning and the Colts who continue to get better with each passing year. But New England did not look like the same Pre-Season Pats we're use to seeing from Belichick. Granted he rested his starters in game four, but since when did that matter with New England--a team built and bred on depth?
I could be very wrong, but something seems "not right" in the Patriots camp at this point, so we'll lean toward Indy: COLTS +3
Titans @ DOLPHINS
Tennessee was one of five AFC teams to fit the mold of my SB Winning Teams according to historical criteria. The Dolphins on the other hand have lost Williams and inked Wannstedt, both of which are somewhat demoralizing. However, keep in mind that Miami is one of the best--if not THE best--opening day teams in the league regardless of what their pre-season expectations are.
That's a word of warning to Tenny backers. The game looks far too easy to me with the Titans looking like a very obvious play. That may prove to be true, but the Titans have had their own share of lost personel also, and Wannstedt might feel the need to silence, right of the bat, those who would suggest he'll use the loss of Williams as a built-in excuse before the season even begins: PASS
Raiders @ STEELERS
Both teams had respectable pre-season numbers. The Steelers could be a sleeper this year, and historically are pretty good home faves vs not-so-good teams. But that record is inflated by the fact that it is truer vs division foes. That fact could be countered by the fact that it's high time Cowher get this team back in the black no matter the opponent. While Cowher is not typically a fast starter, I give a huge edge in coaching to him. Not a big believer in Norv Turner when it comes to winning. Lean to: STEELERS -4
Bucs @ REDSKINS
Interesting early season matchup. I've got both these teams figured as contenders with the Bucs as my NFC SB choice while believing the Redskins need a year under their belt w/Gibbs. That alone would suggest taking the Bucs plus a couple points. But let's not forget that even in his SB year in 2002 Gruden lost his opener. Initially I like the Bucs here, but the Redskins are extremely talented and could pull out a FG home win with Gibbs in his first game back: PASS
Ravens @ BROWNS
I really liked the Ravens here at first glance, but after the Browns qualified as a potential SB Winner according to historical criteria, it might be better to reconsider. Sometimes that historical pre-season criteria will give a false read, and this could be one of them with the Browns. Or not. Their receiving core is improved and Garcia is a welcome addition. Defense appears to have improved drasticly, but that could be deceiving. Better wait this one out. I like the Ravens to go all the way this year, but it's a long season and there's no need to force this play on Baltimore: PASS
Jaguars @ BILLS
I love the Jags this year. Not only did they qualify as a SB Winning team, but their defense is looking borderline invinsible. Bills defense is very respectable, but there offense is not likely to improve enough this early in the season to overcome the Jags front four. Jacksonville is the better team and the right play. They should win straight up: JAGUARS +3
Bengals @ JETS
Well the Bengals have managed to catch a case of Bugalitis again. Despite the fact that Dillon was not happy, he still was a competitor and a solid runner. His loss will hurt. On top of that, the Bungals have made the first bonehead move of the year by benching Kitna in his prime just when they started to win football games.
When Cincy beat the ever living crap out of the Pats in Week Two of Pre-season, I began to wonder if maybe I had misread the whole Bengal thing. But by the end of pre-season that win over NE did not look nearly as impressive as it did at first. Bengals have probs...again.
Contrast that with the Jets who will look to return to their 2002 form with a healthy Pennington and improved defense. The one thing that Herman Edwards is intent on doing is avoiding a slow start this year. He's been rather vocal about that. I think he will get his wish and get it BIG. Look for the Jets to put massive pressure on Palmer. This one could get ugly: JETS -4.5
Lions @ BEARS:
Tough call here as both teams look to be improved this season. I really like Lovie Smith's chances of turning the Bears around. I like even more Mariucci's chances of breaking the Lions Road curse in a game where that possibility is believable. Feel like the Lions are the more improved team and that the pressure for them to win this road opener is high. I think they will respond. In a toss up, we'll lean toward the points: LIONS +3
Cardinals @ RAMS
Be careful here. The Rams were 8-0 last year at home with an average win margin of about a hundred points. The Cardinals have lost what little hope they had via injuries. This looks way too easy. Two things come to mind: Dennis Green and Marc Bulger. Green may be able to get his disabled team to show up. Marc Bulger is a huge question mark as far as how he will respond in his first game as the Ram's un-challenged leader. Remember: Bulger has yet to prove he can win in pressure games. The pressure is on, be CAREFUL: PASS
Seahawks @ SAINTS
I saw somewhere a service had the Saints here as a 5* play. Let me say right off the bat, this game is one of two things in my opinion: Seahawks or Pass. The Hawks have high expectations this year and are perennial SB contenders. Let's not forget that was the SAME thing that was said prior to last year. As good as they are, the Seahawk's time may have come and gone. I would not be surprised is the Seahawks disappointed this year.
The Saints are hard to figure this year. Last year was pretty easy. They were unfocussed and without much motivation. This year, although their starters have not looked that good in pre-season, there seems to be an undercurrent of enthusiasm brewing as they are not as concerned about their late-season collapses as they are solving the problem. Saints could surprise this year, but until I see it, I'll stay away: PASS
Chargers @ TEXANS
The Texans figure to be vastly improved this season. I really like Dom Capers. Their defense is among the league's best and that will prove difficult for ANY of the Charger QB's to overcome. San Diego will probably be in the cellar of the NFL non-elite again. They may improve a little, but the bottom line is that some one has to lose. I like what the Texans have going on, and if not for the fact that it's hard to lay -4.5 with a losing team, I would have this one as a Top Play. I'll probably wish I would have as the Texans should control the clock, the line of scrimmage, and the score. Lean: TEXANS -4.5
Giants @ PHILLY
I'm just not high on the Eagles this year. They could blow the Giants off the map and no one will be surprised, but I do not think laying -9 is a good idea right now. Not until we see if they're going to tank this season--an outcome many are predicting, including me. Giants have a new coach and two new QB's, and I think Warner could surprise if the offensive line can beef it up just a tad. Don't hold your breath: PASS
Cowboys @ VIKINGS
Not crazy about laying points to Bill Parcells team, but off-season moves suggests desperation to some extent. Vikings look to forget last season's debacle and Parcells is a slow starter. Cowboys did not look half as good in pre-season as they did last year. Lean: VIKINGS -4.5
Falcons @ 49ERS
The 49ers look completely depleted and will probably battle the Bungals and Cards as the League's worst. But the Falcons are hyped beyond reason. If they had kept Reeves, I would be shuttering as a defensive coordinator. But instead they bring in a rookie coach and switch to a West Coast Offense. Vick was robbed of an offense that catered to his strengths. He was also thrown to the wolves in an offense that takes even the best QB's a while to learn. Way to go. The Falcons just went from potential contender to last place in the NFC South. Lean toward a Niner victory: 49ERS +3.5
Chiefs @ BRONCOS
Was crazy about Broncos originally, but they really disappointed in pre-season as Shanahan had his first losing Pre-Season in ten years. Chiefs new DC Gunther Cunningham could be just what the doctor ordered, but the results may not show up right away. Trend is huge in favor of Broncos, but that could change. I prefer a PASS, but since it's a Sunday nighter, we'll "lean" with the Trend and Shanny looking to save his job: BRONCOS -3
Packers @ PANTHERS
Here's another game I was crazy about until the PS results came in. Liking the Packers to win this NFC Championship shoulda-been game, I have to give more thought in view of the Panther's continued winning streak. Man they look strong. But it is of note that they did not make the SB Winning Teams list--only the Bucs made that list in the NFC this year.
This is a toss up for me. The Cats are so strong, so well-coached, and I can see them being even more hungry and more improved. However, they were not exactly great as faves last year, failing to cover in virtually every role as a fave while covering virtually every role as a dog. That's the kinda' ball they play.
I know this, it's do or die for Sherman, Farve, and the Packers. Their last-half success last year suggests that they were reaching a peak to be continued on into this season. But they looked flat in pre-season and their execution stinked, if that's a word. The good news is that they cut Tim Couch. Hey, that could be a morale booster. Gotta' go with the FG, but only a lean: PACKERS
-------------------
08.) NFL Top Plays:
-------------------
*JETS -4.5
*JAGS +3.0
--------------------
09.) NCAA Top Plays:
--------------------
Florida State @ MIAMI FL
Hurricanes took a hit in the draft while the Seminoles are in tact including Chris Rix's SR Season. Bobby Bowden once dominated this series but has lost 4 straight including a 2-pt loss in their Bowl Game last Season.
I like Florida State here. They are a Championship contender and will prove it by getting the Hurricanes out of the way right off the bat. If Bowden wins this one it's smooth sailing with the exception of road contests at NC State and Maryland. A split there and they could still make the big one.
This is the perfect spot for Bowden to exact his revenge and in so doing send a strong message to the Hurricanes: You're not gonna bounce into our conference and take over. Beautiful play, I do not expect it to be close. Look for FSU to win the game by 15 or more in my First DOUBLE PLAY of this early Season...
**Florida State +2 over MIAMI FL (DOUBLE PLAY)
Fresno State @ KANSAS STATE:
This is the most talented team in Pat Hill's already hugely successful reign as the Bulldogs Head Coach. Returning more letterman, more Seniors, and more starters than in his previous seven seasons, Fresno is going to pull of some big wins this year as evidenced right off the bat last week on the Road in Washington.
Don't look for them to letdown here. The Bulldogs are not only talented but they are pumped. They believe. A 10-win season would not surprise me at all, and in order to do that they'll have to knock off a couple heavy hitters.
I look for FSU to give K-State all they can handle in going for the SU win. Bulldogs are 16-3 ATS as non-con dogs. Meanwhile K-state has lost a bundle of Seniors, and their tendancy of blowing out lesser teams chilled a bit last year. Their gonna find out that just because they're favored by double-digits in this game does not mean they're playing one of those cupcake teams that Snyder likes to book and then beat up on.
Bulldogs might win this one Straight Up for real. If not, I expect them to give'm all they can handle...
*Fresno State +13 over KANSAS ST
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10.) Dave's Props and Non-Traditionals:
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None
*NOTE: All plays will be judged by the line as SENT. It is understood that lines will vary among subscribers, books, monitoring services, etc., for better or worse. Be smart, shop around if possible.
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