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**InsiderEdge** · 09-12-2004, 04:55 PM

3-0 Early to remain undefeated in the NFL...

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET

Oakland Raiders +4 -101 (2 Units)

We expect to see a different Raiders team than what was featured last season. Obviously, they are different with new personnel both on the field and on the sidelines but a different attitude will be the big change. It’s no secret that this team quit last season on their coaching staff and it has been well publicized that they are back and ready to make another playoff run.

The Raiders returned with a new coach, Norv Turner, and a new, aggressive style on both offense and defense. When they have the ball, they will focus on the run, pull in defenses, then go deep. Rich Gannon is back at the helm, healthy and in arguably the best shape of his life. The Steelers have three new starters in the defensive backfield with CB Deshea Townsend and safeties Troy Polamalu and Chris Hope. The one cornerback that is still around is Chad Scott and he has been known to give up the big play. Jerry Porter is now the man at receiver and like Gannon, he is 100% this season. The inexperience will cost the Steelers backfield against a veteran like Gannon, as Oakland should be able to move the ball in big chunks.

On defense, the Raiders will present a multiple defense, centered on a 3-4 alignment, and will go heavy on the blitz. A lot of new faces are on this side of the ball but looking at the preseason, they started off just fine. The first team did not give up a touchdown. The rushing defense, last in the league a year ago, has rebounded with the addition of Warren Sapp and Ted Washington on the line. With the Steelers back in smashmouth mode, it's imperative to stop the run. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will use the multiple-front scheme he learned while assisting Bill Belichick. The pass defense is probably the week link but Tommy Maddox is coming off a horrible season and he will not have the ability to beat Oakland downfield. Both teams are looking to turn things around after disappointing seasons but the Steelers might be in lookahead mode already as they have Baltimore on deck for next week. Oakland returns home to face Buffalo so 100% focus is expected here.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM ET

Under 35 Jacksonville/Buffalo -108 (2 Units)

We really don’t see a lot of offense in this game as both teams rely on their defense. Both teams have a run-oriented offense and prefer to slug it out in the trenches to set up the play-action passes. Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich is still learning while Buffalo QB Drew Bledsoe is coming off a subpar season with changes being made for this year. The two defensive-minded coaches will stick with conservative game.

The Buffalo coaches have been working with Bledsoe on throwing shorter, dumping passes off rather than always going for the home run. The Bills' attack would be much more efficient if Bledsoe dumped the ball to a back for an 8-yard gain to make second-and-2 than if he took a chance downfield that was incomplete. He will dance in the pocket forever and is prone to sacks. New offensive coordinator Tom Clements intends to lean more heavily on the running game to take pressure off Bledsoe, who was sacked an NFL-high 49 times last season. The offensive line, which was the crumbling foundation behind last season's 30th-ranked offense, has not been fixed due to absences, injuries and personnel juggling. In the preseason, center Trey Teague was the only player who lined up in the same spot each day. The Jaguars were 6th in total defense and 2nd in rushing defense so they have the ability to slow down what Buffalo will look to do.

Buffalo's jump to No. 2 in total defense last season started up front and the unit returns intact. The linebackers are the team's greatest strength however with Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher and Jeff Posey combining for 366 tackles and 9.5 sacks a year ago. They lost CB Antoine Winfield in the secondary and Lawyer Milloy is hurt but the addition of Troy Vincent will ease some of the pain. They were 5th in points allowed last season, giving up 17.4 ppg and that was with the team yielding 79 points over their last 3 games last year. Leftwich was inconsistent in the preseason although some drops and untimely penalties hurt him. But the most glaring concern is that he didn't produce a touchdown in 15 series. Fred Taylor seems to be healthy finally so expect a lot of carries from him thus keeping that clock moving.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans 1:00 PM ET

Over 43 San Diego/Houston -101 (2 Units)

Entering the regular season, the weaknesses of these teams are their defenses. Last year, Houston finished 31st in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards while coming in 27th in points allowed. The Chargers meanwhile were 31st in points allowed and 27th in total yards. Both teams did some offseason shuffling but we don’t expect big turnarounds at all, especially this early on.

One thing that is improving is the Houston offense. Even though they finished 31st in total yards last year, they improved by over 45 ypg from 2002 and the young guys have gained valuable experience. The offense could be explosive as the threesome of quarterback David Carr, tailback Domanick Davis and receiver Andre Johnson develops. The biggest factor is that the Texans won't start a rookie on offense for the first time in the brief history. While the Chargers ranked 21st against the pass, they surrendered 36 touchdown passes. That not only led the league, nobody was even close with Cincinnati second worst in the AFC at a distant 23. The run defense, while finishing 24th, allowed more than 180 yards rushing 5 times so Davis should run with ease thus opening up the passing game even more. The Texans' offensive line struggled in 2002, as then-rookie Carr was sacked NFL record 76 times. Last season the sacks allowed dropped to 36.

Houston team officials spent the offseason finding players to upgrade a defense that was 31st against the run last season. Unfortunately, they face one of the league’s best in game 1, as they will try and stop LaDanian Tomlinson. The rushing offense was 6th in the league and Tomlinson brings in an added threat as a sure handed receiver out of the backfield, as he gained 725 yards last season. Drew Brees has been steady in four exhibition games, two of which the Chargers won. Brees, the Chargers' opening day starter the past two years, was 31-45 for 432 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions this summer. In 15 series, he directed the Chargers to five touchdowns and a field goal. And surprisingly, San Diego scored more points than any team in preseason as they put up 106 points (26.5 ppg).

**InsiderEdge** · 09-12-2004, 07:43 PM

Make it a clean 4-0 sweep in the NFL...

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers 4:15 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers +3.5 –114 (2 Units)

Yes Mike Vick is back for the Falcons and the 49ers lost a ton on offense but for Atlanta to be favored on the road in their first game seems a little to aggressive. The Falcons have yet to repair their porous defense and even the new look 49ers will be able to move the ball.

Vick's played the equivalent of about one-and-a-half quarters in the preseason, addled by a pulled right hamstring. Even when he was playing, he didn't show much aptitude for Atlanta's new West Coast offense in preseason. To keep pressure off Vick, the Falcons will try to establish running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett early. Limiting their production will put more pressure on Vick to complete passes downfield, one of his few weaknesses. The San Francisco defense finished 4th in the NFC in total yards and the whole unit returns mainly intact. The biggest loss was defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. who will be on the opposite sidelines for this one. The Falcons have been decimated by injuries along the front four during training camp and were searching for bodies to line up in drills. Atlanta went into camp two-deep at each defensive line position, but by the time the first preseason game rolled around, five of the eight defensive linemen weren't healthy enough to play.

Running back Kevin Barlow made it through the most impressive training camp of his career and looks ready to have a big season. If Barlow runs the ball effectively, the offense should open up for the passing game. The 49ers plan to use a lot of play-action in its passing attack. Tim Rattay is an accurate passer with a knowledge of the game and nice touch on longer passes. His big issue is a lack of scrambling ability. The team must make sure he has enough protection in the pocket. Cedrick Wilson and Brandon Lloyd open the season as the starting receivers. The 49ers certainly will not be looking to center on one player in the passing game, like they did with Terrell Owens. In that sense, Lloyd said there is less pressure without Owens, who clearly became a divisive figure in the locker room with his constant complaining and adversarial relationship with Jeff Garcia. A defense that was ranked dead last in the NFL overall, and in several categories, is shy of defensive tackle Ellis Johnson, who never reported, and lost starting LCB DeAngelo Hall, the No. 8 pick of the draft, when he broke his hip in the third preseason game.

**InsiderEdge** · 09-13-2004, 12:41 PM

Join us Monday for the winning side as we will go to 6-0 for the week in the NFL after tonight. And yes, the same information and analysis backs up this winner as always.

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4 Winners For NFL Opening Sunday

4 Winners For NFL Opening Sunday

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