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Tuesday: RANGERS -170
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2004 NFL PREVIEW
Greetings...
I'll start off my preview with my Superbowl Prediction. It might be asking too much to emulate last year when I nailed it on both sides by projecting a Panthers-Patriots Matchup, but I'll give it a shot.
In my Preliminary NFL Preview--written before pre-season--I made a strong case for the Packers in the NFC and was wavering between the Broncos and Pats in the AFC. Last year prior to pre-season I was thinking possible Panthers and Jets before Pennington got hurt. But after pre-season was over, I was sold on the Panthers and switched over to the Pats--both partly due to their Pre-Season successes. I'll get to that in a minute, but my Choice for this year's Superbowl Matchup is...
*BALTIMORE RAVENS vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
Before I get to Divisional Commentary, I want to give a rundown of how I came to these choices as SB teams. Over the years I have noticed and researched certain things that eventual/potential SB teams do and/or have. Here's a brief list, though not exaustive:
1.) SB teams will usually have a no-nonsense coach who has either been there before or displays the type of no-nonsense attributes of coaches who have.
2.) SB teams will often finish up the prior year strong.
3.) SB teams will rarely go with a 1st-year coach unless the coach "inherits" a contender.
a). Gruden inherited a strong team with the Bucs who had made 3 straight playoff appearances and 4 out of five under Dungy. With a stingy defense, power running game, good special teams, and the addition of Johnson & Johnson, it became apparent that the missing ingredient was the right coach.
b.) The '89 49ers were "inherited" by George Seifert. These are the only two 1st-year coaches to get the job done. Check it out:
*Only twice in SB history has a 1st-year coach (with new team) Won the Superbowl. Gruden with the Bucs and Seifort with the 49ers. Both of them "inherited contenders" as Dungy had taken his Bucs to the Playoffs in four of the last 5 seasons with them while Seifort inherited a SB Winner from the previous year.
This year there are 7 new coaches, none of which are inheriting a contender. Based on that, you would not expect to find the following teams in the Superbowl:
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins
4.) SB teams will rarely go with a coach who's been with them more than 5 years. In fact, in the last 26 Superbowls the head coach got there within his first five years or RETURNED within five SUBSEQUENT years. This is referrring to Winning the Superbowl. Let's take a look at that:
*Superbowl Winners: How long had the team's coach been with them when he Won a SB with them?
2003 NE Belichick Won 2nd subsequent year [since winning his last SB with them]
2002 Bucs Gruden Won 1st year
2001 NE Belichick Won 2nd year
2000 Ravens Billick Won 2nd year
1999 Rams Vermeil Won 3rd year
1998 Broncos Shanahan Won 1st subsequent year
1997 Broncos Shanahan Won 3rd year
1996 Packers Holmgren Won 5th year
1995 Cowboys Switzer Won 2nd year
1994 49ers Seifort Won 5th subsequent year
1993 Cowboys Johnson Won 1st subsequent year
1992 Cowboys Johnson Won 4th year
1991 Redskins Gibbs Won 4th subsquent year
1990 Giants Parcells Won 4th subsquent year
1989 49ers Seifert Won 1st year
1988 49ers Walsh Won 4th subsequent year
1987 Redskins Gibbs Won 5th subsequent year
1986 Giants Parcels Won 4th year
1985 Bears Ditka Won 4th year
1984 49ers Walsh Won 3rd subsequent year
1983 Raiders Flores Won 3rd subsequent year
1982 Redskins Gibbs Won 2nd year
1981 49ers Walsh Won 3rd year
1980 Raiders Flores Won 2nd year
1979 Steelers Noll Won 1st subsequent year
1978 Steelers Noll Won 3rd subsequent year
Analysis:
For 26 straight years the SB Winning Coach either won within his first five years with that team or Won AGAIN with that team within a subsequent five years of his last SB win with them.
In fact, only 3 of the 26 won in his 5th year or subsequent 5th year. Twenty-three out of 26 was within 4 years. The last time a SB Winning coach did it in more than five years was in 1977 when Don Shula won a SB with the Dolphins in his 6th subsequent year to his last SB win with them. However, Shula had BEEN to the SB only TWO years prior, having lost in 1975.
Apparently if it don't happen in five years, it don't happen. How many times have we seen coaches get off to a great start with a team but continue to fall short. Once they get past the first few years, they may keep having good seasons, but that's all. Marv Levy, Dennis Green, Jim Mora, Tony Dungy with the Bucs, Bud Grant, etc. Maybe it's that their motivational methods become familiar and therefore not as effective.
According to this, the following teams would not be expected to win the SB this season (remember, we're going with the percentages):
Denver
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Most notably are the Eagles (Reid in his 6th season) and Seahawks (Holmgren in his 6th Season). Regarding the Seahawks, Holmgren went to the Playoffs in his first Season in 1999, then followed up with a 6-win season in 2000. The Hawks rebounded in 2001 winning 9 games and the stage was set for a SB run in 2002. The hopes were high, but the Seahawks let down again winning only seven games. I think this year's squad is the best yet, but I have to be honest with you, I thought LAST season was to be their year if they were going to do it.
Although I picked the Cats to go last year in the NFC, I concurred with the pre-season hype that last year was do or die for Holmgren in Seattle. They were one of my Futures. After a 10-win season, he obviously did not die. But this year's hype is sounding too much like the hype of every pre-season since Holmgren's arrival--and ESPECIALLY last year. Seattle is strong and should win their division, but they'll have to buck a real trend of getting the job done past the 5-year mark.
Since the Jaguars and Panthers went to their respective Conference Championships in only their second year as franchises, the expectations changed. I wrote about this leading into the 1997 season, and it has proved to be true. Less time and tolerance for 'rebuilding' programs. Win Now. If "they" can do it, WE can do it--referring to the Jags and Cats. Since that 1996 Season, no SB Winning Coach has taken longer than 3 seasons to get the job done.
5.) In the last decade, SB teams Win in the Pre-Season. They also tend to win their Final Game of Pre-Season. The significance of the last decade is exceptional since it consists of two major changes. One, Free agency; and two, the "Win Now" mentality that has been prevalent since the Jags and Cats each went to their respective Conference finals in only their second seasons. No more "rebuilding" plans. Win Now. If THEY can do it, WE can do it (referring to the Cats and Jags). As a sidenote to the win-now era (1997 Season forward), every SB Winning coach in the last 7 seasons has done it within THREE years--not five.
6.) In the Last decade, SB teams tend to show strong defensive and/or opportunistic tendancies in regard to depth as evidenced by the amount of points they allow--or not allow--to be scored against them.
7.) Team history and judgement calls. Some times--not often--bad teams will fit most of this criteria and give a false read, like last year's Cardinals. I didn't bite. In those cases you might have to use judgement to eliminate those false reads. A potential false read this year is the Browns. But I'm gonna bite on that one. I like their coach in his 3rd year, and I like some of their additions on both sides of the ball, especially Garcia.
Having said all that, I'll skip the self-gratuitous rehash of how the Pats and Cats fit these scenarios like a glove last year and move on to this current season. But I do want to mention that these things also led me to pick the Titans in 1999 as my Most Improved Team of the Year and the Ravens in 2000 as my Most Improved Team of the Year. In both cases, they went to the Superbowl as dark horses (Fisher's best season in previous 4 years w/Titans-Oilers prior to '99 was 8-8).
Noticing the trend of those "most improved teams" going to the Superbowl, I got a little wiser last season. Once naming the Panthers as my "most improved" choice in a pre-season article a bettorschat, I went ahead and listed them as my SB choice as well. This year, I'm bucking that trend. My most improved team of the 2004 Season is not my SB choice. That team is...
*JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
While I fugure the Jags to be the most improved team in the NFL, I'm not listing them (officially) as my SB choice for a number of reasons. They are "a" SB choice (futures), but not "the" SB choice. Namely, the division they play in and the fact that there are no less than FIVE AFC teams to meet the above criteria (only 1 NFC team). The rise of the Jags is due largely in part to their stinging defense. Add to that the quick rise of Leftwich, Fred Taylor, the second-best front four in the NFL (panthers first), the acquistion of a better FG kicker, and the fact that this team out-statted 11 of 16 of their opponents last year, and you've got yourself a bonafide sleeper.
The only problem is that the Jags find themselves in the same division with the improved Texans and their near-equally awesome defense and strong coach, the SB-contending Indianapolis Colts whose coach and QB both got monkeys off their backs last season, and the Tennessee Titans who fit the criteria as a potential SB winner this year. Plus, there is a couple other AFC teams--Jets and Ravens--that look to have a serious impact in that conference this season.
Choosing an AFC SB choice was somewhat difficult. The five teams to meet the criteria were the Jets, Jags, Ravens, Titans, and Browns. I do not think the Browns will do it, but the Futures number was high enough and their talent-additions strong enough for me to consider them a worthy future play. That leaves the other four--any of which I believe could make a very real run for the bowl this season. Not to mention the non-qualifying but very capable Colts and Chiefs. You can see why it is hard to nail down one team in the AFC. But for now, we'll stick with the qualifying teams.
Of the five AFC possibililies--while still worthy futures--I eliminated the Browns as my SB choice based solely on judgement. I eliminated the Jags based on their division. I eliminated the Jets (reluctantly--watch out, they're for real) because, well, they're the Red Sox of the NFL. That left the Titans and Ravens. Very tough choice, but I went with the Ravens defense over and against a Titans team that might have to rely even more on McNair than ever before. There you have it, how I came up with the Ravens.
The NFC picture is significantly easier. The afforementioned SB Winning Criteria alone--without any objective judgement--eliminates all but one team, the Bucs. But here's some brief commentary on the NFC teams and why I believe the other 15 will not make the Superbowl...
Arizona Cardinals:
The Cards are a bad football team with a long history of losing. If Dennis Green couldn't get the job done with the 1998 15-1 Vikings, how in the world will he do it with this team--in his first year nonetheless. Remember, all my commentary is separate and aside from the fact that none of these 15 teams fit the SB Winning Criteria.
Atlanta Falcons:
First year coach Jim Mora Jr has a job on hand. Despite being his 1st year as an NFL Head Coach, he's assumed the League's worst defense who's best defensive draft player is injured. Second, the hopes and thrills of watching how teams would attempt to stop Vick and Price while containing the running game is all but out the window as the Falcons have thrown Vick to the wolves with the West Coast Offense.
Carolina Panthers:
I've listed the Panthers as a futures even though they did not qualify as a SB Winning team (technically). This is a strong team, but a couple reasons why I don't expect them in the SB this season is, one, the repeat factor. Or non-repeat factor. Two, the Panthers relied on no less than sevem 4th-Quarter comeback wins last season. Team is still strong and "could" go, but I'm going to opt playing the percentages with the SB Winning Criteria. Panthers were outdone in the defensive category by several NFC teams during pre-season--if you can believe that! I want to see DeShawn Foster and Ricky Manning Jr get more playing time.
Chicago Bears:
First year HC Lovie Smith will have the Bears improved all the way around, but will it be this season? The defense looks solid overall and the running game could prove beneficial, but the QB position is a big question mark. Tough division too with Vikes, Packers, and improving Lions under Mariucci.
Dallas Cowboys:
The Pokes. I am a huge Parcells fan, and like Colorado State's Sonny Lubick, he's money in the bank off 2 losses. But it seems to me he might do his usual 2nd year letdown. Bringing in Testaverde and Keyshawn looked good at first, or so I thought, since Billy is the master of maximizing the potential of players like these. Only problem is that Carter is gone now and Vinny is under the gun--a place where he's not usually comfortable. Dallas D will carry them again, but there are too many ?'s here including a suspect run.
Detroit Lions:
I would not be the least surprised to see the Lions give the Packers a run for 2nd place in the black and blue division. They are vastly improved on offense, and while their defense needs improvement, Mariucci could have this team inspired, all the more if they win their first road game. Not a SB contender though as the Lions have a case of Saints-itis. That is, buy low, sell high (see Barry Sanders book).
Green Bay Packers:
Initially I liked the Packers to represent the NFC in the SB this season as I pointed out in my preliminary NFL Preview. They could still make a run for it as their defense vastly improved in the final 8 games of last season allowing only one 300 yard game and only one 100 yard rusher during that span. They also ranked number one in Red Zone offense and #1 in Red Zone defense. If that's not enough, they were #1 in winning margin in their wins and #1 in losing margin (the least) in their losses. The 41-7 Monday Night thrasing of the Raiders last year on the heels of the passing of Favre's father was seemed indicative of things to come. Could that game be an indication of this season? Unfortunately, a few weeks later Farve made the bonehead throw of his career vs Philly in the Playoffs, costing them a trip to Carolina to play in the NFC Championship game. As stated in my pre-preseason preview: Pre-Season will be the tale of the tape on Favre and the Packers. The tape was ugly, resembling last year's Raiders during pre-season. I could happen, but the Pack missed the boat in virtually every category regarding SB Winning Criteria. No thanks.
Minnesota Vikings:
The Vikes were one of my Futures last season as I liked what I saw in HC Mike Tice and even more what I saw in the New Randy Moss who had a superb off-season last year both physically and mentally. The Vikes figure to win the NFC North this Season and many are picking them to go bowling. Besides the fact that they missed out on some key criteria, it doesn't escape my notice that the once 6-0 Vikings last year failed to make the playoffs for no apparent reason. On top of that, they still had a chance in their final game vs the worst team in the league (cardinals) and did not get the job done. That's the bottom line to me. SB coaches/teams don't mess up that way. They do not blow 6-0 starts and they do not blow games like Week 17 offered them. Will last season's debacle inspired them? Probably. Definately. But there is still something in the camp (in view of what I've mentioned) that does not smell like a SB team. Pick a SB Winning coach (Parcells, Gruden, Fox, etc.) and ask yourself if the same would've happened with them at the helm. I doubt it. Vikes 2-2 in pre-season, failed to win game 4, and gave up too many points. SB teams don't do that (history bears that out).
New Orleans Saints:
Oh boy, here we go. If you've followed my posts over the last six years at the forums, then you know how apt I am to "go off" on the Saints from time to time. It gets to a point where it sounds like a broken record. I'll spare you the antics. Suffice it to say that, after having watched their pre-season games with their starters, nothing has changed. They are still the most talented team in the NFC South and still the biggest bunch of underachievers in the NFL save the Miami Dolphins. Bottom line: If the Saint's HC will demand respect and their QB will get his head out of his proverbial Grill, no one in the NFC South will touch them and they will go deep into the playoffs. They are that good. But, as usual, that is a conditional, hypothetical situation. The Saints continue to look unfocussed, lacking in basic execution, and very fickle. They played like a golfe trying to get in a quick round before he has to run errands--distracted. That being said, if they get on a roll, look out. But that's not likely to happen unless Brooks gets injured or is benched. Then someone with enthusiasm--and hands to hang on to the pig--will make good things happen for the Saints. Then the Saints will trade the backup QB next year and he'll go to a Superbowl. Bottom line, the Saints aint's goin'.
New York Giants:
Hard to get a good read on the Giants, but they're not SB bound. Good coach, and offense will improve if the offensive line can hold the Sacks per game on Warner to under 50. Warner is not good under pressure and the O line MUST give him more time. Defense needs a LOT of help. That being said, they should be improved this year only because they cannot conceivably get any worse.
Philadelphia Eagles:
I've done about a 1/2 dozen writeups already at the forums as to why the Eagles will not make the SB this year. I don't even think they will win their Division or make the playoffs. They have been SO good for SO long, it's amazing to me that they have not made the big one under Andy Reid who is an excellent coach. The Ealges gelled for several years and returned the same basic core group for several years running. They made the NFC Championship game the last 3 seasons--the last 2 of which were at home--and somehow did not get the job done. Oh, wait a minute! It must be that they are lacking a cry baby, prema donna, wide receiver. THAT'S IT!!!! Sorry, folks, I find it borderline arrogant. The team was better without Terrel Owens, and the culprit of their failure in the NFC Games falls squarely on the shoulders of Donovan McNabb who threw too many interceptions at critical times in Big Games. The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to Win the Superbowl this year. Right. Three strikes and you're out. Eagles are O-U-T!
St Louis Rams:
Rams are toast. Mike Martz is extraordinarily aloof. "I" could've coached the Rams to the Superbowl in 2001, so not much credit for that. Bulger is brilliant but not in big games. The night before their final regular season game against one of the worst teams in the league--the Lions--Mike Martz told his team "our playoffs begin tomorrow", referring to their need to win in order to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Bulger responded with the worst game of his career. He then lost in the playoffs at home. Think THAT was pressure? How about trading Warner and putting the weight of the the Season solely on Bulger's shoulders? If the Rams break .500 it will only be because they are in a weak division with the 49ers and Cardinals. SB is out of the question.
San Francisco 49ers:
I figure the 49ers to be the worst team in the NFL this season. They'll battle the Cards for that distinction, but atleast Arizona has a coach. The Niners lost their starting QB, their starting WR, and their starting RB. On top of that they start out 0-2 right off the bat against the 'Hawks...you can bank that. Zero chance of making the bowl under Erickson.
Seattle Seahawks:
After realizing that my call on the Packers to represent the NFC in the SB was by the wayside, I reverted to my second choice Seahawks. They are strong in virtually every category. But by pre-season's end when they 'missed the cut' regarding SB Winning Criteria, I began to dig deeper. This is a team whose time has come, but in retrospect, they said that in 2000, 2001, 2002, and ESPECIALLY last year in 2003. I had them as a futures last season feeling like last year was the year. I think Holmgren and the Hawks may have passed their time. Nevertheless, although not my choice to go to the SB in the NFC, and although they didn't make the traditional "cut", I've got to include this team as a recommended hedge regarding futures. Why? Because they are that good. If they can get a split on the road this year and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they could go all the way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Leave it to John Gruden to get it right. I realize the Season has not started, but the Bucs are the only team to meet all of the criteria of SB Winning Teams the last decade. I believe. Keyshawn is gone and that is a big PLUS. Prior to pre-season I felt that the loss of Sapp and Lynch would hurt the Bucs too much to overcome. If their aggressive vanilla defense all the way down to the 4th stringers during pre-season are any indication of things to come, heck, this team could go all the way. Maybe not in the AFC, but the NFC is WIDE OPEN for someone to step forward, and this is my choice to do just that! I only had a handful of NFC considerations, and the few that I had just didn't cut the mustard; but lo', the Bucs look to surprise this year in a bounce back. Bucs go all the way!
Washington Redskins:
This is a team to watch. They could very easily win the NFC East this season and it would not surprise me. Maybe Danny boy has found the right coach and right mix here. Enter HC Joe Gibbs, offensive mastermind and winner of 3 Superbowls with 3 different QB's with these here Redskins in the 80's and early 90's. Enter seasoned, veteran QB Mark Brunell--a solid, accurate pocket passer yeilding 60% completions--to solve the long overdue QB issue with the 'skins. Then enter a top 3 league rusher in Clinton Portis and a dash of WR Lavernous Coles and you've got all you need to start moving the ball and scoring points---THIS SEASON. On the other side of the ball you can expect Miami draftee Sean Taylor to have an immediate impact defensively.
HINT: THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS ARE A SUPERBOWL CONTENDER IN 2005. You heard it here first.
AFC LOOK:
Baltimore Ravens:
I saw all I needed to see in the Raves very first Pre-Season game. This defense is beginning to emulate the 2000 version, and we know what happened then. With the Rushing of Jamal Lewis and the Raven's Pistons-like, ungodly defense, I do not see how this team can miss in 2004. Billick has been there. He has an uncanny ability to cater to his team's strengths and carry his team's weaknesses, whatever they be. Billick is back this year, and Boller is sufficient. If Prime Time can pull his weight and not be a high profile distraction, the Ravens will take the AFC this year. Remember: Defense wins Championships, not Manning-like numbers or Swiss Cheifs defenses.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills could be the worst team in the AFC, if not for their respectable defense. Steeler protege' Mike Mularkey takes over as head coach and has the unfortunate task of making something out of, well, not much. Atleast offensively speaking. Bills have a tough schedule this year and you can count them a distant 4th the in the AFC East behind the Jets, Pats, and Dolphins, in that order. Next.
Cincinnatti Bengals:
Well somehow the Bungals managed to do it again. They start winning and then they make a boneheaded move like, I dunno, bench a seasoned veteran QB in the prime of his career off the best season of his career and off a near-pro bowl year. Not a good time to bring in a rookie. Bungals lost Dillon to boot. He may not have been happy in Cincy, but man can he run. Look for the Bengals to finish a deserved last place in the AFC North. The fun begins September 12th when the Jets BLOW THEM OFF THE PLANET.
Cleveland Browns:
Having a hard time getting a read here, but early thoughts are that the Browns have finally improved on defense. Add in Garcia at QB and they could bounce back strong this season. AFC North could be a tight race minus the Bungals. Browns made superbowl criteria, but so did last year's cards. I'm buying here...for now. Let's see where they stand after six weeks.
Denver Broncos:
I was originally really high on the Broncos this season, but then they got rid of Portis. Granted, the ponies always find a back, but still; c'mon. I guess we'll see. Plummer was 9-3 as a starter with a decent TD-Int ratio. If the D can hold up to top ten standards and Griffin comes through at tailback, they'll be in the playoffs and probably win the AFC West. But the competition is a bit stiff in the AFC to give them a SB nod, especially having not met many SB Winning Criteria. I look for the Broncos to win the AFC West and go out in the first or second round.
Houston Texans:
I've heard some hype this year, but I'm not sure I'm sold. The defense is solid, Carr is looking much better with more time, and their receiving core is improved along with a solid running game. But can they WIN football games? The AFC South is a heck of a division to be in, and the AFC is too tough to consider the Texans much of a serious threat. More of the same here, but better; the losses will be closer and they could be live dogs ATS.
Indianapolis Colts:
Same 'ole song and dance. Show me the money. Translation: show me the defense. Yeah, the D will improve some and, yes, Dungy and Manning got the Playoff Monkeys off their backs. But when playoff time rolls around, it's all about defense. This division is close, very close. With the vastly improved Jags and upcoming Texans, the Titans and Colts could find those sweeps a little tougher.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
This is my Most Improved Team of the Year. In my last three previous 'declarations' of my most improved team, they all made the Superbowl. Jacksonville has every necessary ingredient to make the Superbowl. I want to state that emphatically. In the same vein as the Panters last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars have everything necessary to make a Superbowl Run. I just don't think they will. Would it surprise me? Absolutely not in the least. Wouldn't that be fun...and all-Florida Superbowl being played in Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs:
For the 3rd straight year the Chiefs failed to significantly address their defensive woes. At least they replaced the DC. If Gunther Cunningham turns up the heat defensively and the Chiefs maintain status quo offensively, no one will stop them from being Superbowl bound. That's a big if, and for now I will stick with history and give them a no-go. Denver should edge them in the AFC West.
Miami Dolphins:
If this team could not get it done with all the talent they have had the last 2 seasons, I have no, none, reason to believe anything will be different this year. With the re-signing of Dave Wannstedt and Williams being gone, well, I'll give them a generous 3rd in the AFC East.
New England Patriots:
I cannot put my finger on it, but the feeling here is that something ain't right in camp. The addition of Dillon will not improve the Patriots in my opinion. The addition and/or substraction of ANYBODY would not improve what they already have. Something is not right in the Pats camp, and while they are still good enough and disciplined enough to beat anyone, anywhere, and go all they way, I don't think they will.
New York Jets:
The Jets pre-season numbers are some of the best in the last decade compared to past SB Winners and remarkably resemble the Pats numbers of last year. After Pennington's breakout year in 2002 the Jets were let down by his injury and a slow start last season. I look for the Jets to make a very strong rebound, win the AFC East, and make a serious SB run. Nothing is more important to Herman Edwards than to AVOID a slow start this year. Stacked up against the Bungals in their opener, it could get ugly. Jets ARE for real this season.
Oakland Raiders:
The Raiders turned in a respectable pre-season, and COULD be on the rebound. My default setting with Norv Turner is that he is not the one to take an NFL team very far. Another coach and I would be giving the waders harder look, but not until Turner is gone.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
I look for Pittsburgh to be improved this year. The Bus had a good pre-season and Cowher will look to get back to old time Steeler feetball. Unfortunately they have to face the Raves twice and probably won't do better than a split with the new-found Browns. Defense still shaky. No SB this year, and will battle the Browns for second place behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Could be good OVER team.
San Diego Chargers:
The Chargers put up some good numbers in pre-season, but I view them as a false read similar to last year's cards. They also finished out last year fairly strong in the stats. With Rivers, Flutie, and Brees on board, the feeling here is that there is too much uncertainty regarding the QB position and overall as well. Chargers are not going to challege the AFC West Title and will probably bring up the cellar behind the Raiders.
Tennessee Titans:
Tennesse almost made the big dance last year, and could very well emulate that success again this season. Their defense should edge out the Colts for the Division, and having met all the SB Winning Criteria, I wouldn't count them out. Loss of Eddies George will have minimal effect in my opinion. McNair continues to prove his toughness, and will find a way to get the job done with the receivers at hand. Tennessee or Jets likely to play Ravens in AFC Championship game.\
Division Winners:
AFC EAST: JETS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: BRONCOS
NFC EAST: REDSKINS
NFC NORTH: VIKINGS
NFC SOUTH: BUCS
NFC WEST: SEAHAWKS
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: JETS OR TITANS VS RAVENS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: SEAHAWKS VS BUCS
SUPERBOWL: RAVENS VS BUCS
SUPERBOWL WINNER: RAVENS
FUTURES:
1.) To WIN the NCAA Championship:
*OKLAHOMA +400
*FLORIDA STATE +800
2.) To WIN the AFC Championship:
*RAVENS +650
*JAGUARS +1400
*TITANS +1600
*JETS +1800
*BROWNS +2000
3.) To WIN the NFC Championship:
*SEAHAWKS +400
*PANTHERS +1200
*BUCS +1600
*REDSKINS +1600
4.) To WIN the Superbowl:
*RAVENS +1000
*SEAHAWKS +1600
*JAGUARS +2200
*TITANS +2200
*PANTHERS +2250
*BUCS +2500
*REDSKINS +2800
*JETS +4000
*BROWNS +5000
5.) To WIN Division:
*JETS to WIN AFC EAST +400
*BRONCOS to WIN AFC WEST +180
*REDSKINS to WIN NFC EAST +325
*VIKINGS to WIN NFC NORTH -130
*BUCS to WIN NFC SOUTH +250
6.) Team Wins OVER/UNDER:
*RAVENS OVER 9.0 -175
*BRONCOS OVER 9.0 -150
*JAGUARS OVER 7.5 -165
*BUCS OVER 9.0 -105
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2004 NFL PREVIEW
Greetings...
I'll start off my preview with my Superbowl Prediction. It might be asking too much to emulate last year when I nailed it on both sides by projecting a Panthers-Patriots Matchup, but I'll give it a shot.
In my Preliminary NFL Preview--written before pre-season--I made a strong case for the Packers in the NFC and was wavering between the Broncos and Pats in the AFC. Last year prior to pre-season I was thinking possible Panthers and Jets before Pennington got hurt. But after pre-season was over, I was sold on the Panthers and switched over to the Pats--both partly due to their Pre-Season successes. I'll get to that in a minute, but my Choice for this year's Superbowl Matchup is...
*BALTIMORE RAVENS vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
Before I get to Divisional Commentary, I want to give a rundown of how I came to these choices as SB teams. Over the years I have noticed and researched certain things that eventual/potential SB teams do and/or have. Here's a brief list, though not exaustive:
1.) SB teams will usually have a no-nonsense coach who has either been there before or displays the type of no-nonsense attributes of coaches who have.
2.) SB teams will often finish up the prior year strong.
3.) SB teams will rarely go with a 1st-year coach unless the coach "inherits" a contender.
a). Gruden inherited a strong team with the Bucs who had made 3 straight playoff appearances and 4 out of five under Dungy. With a stingy defense, power running game, good special teams, and the addition of Johnson & Johnson, it became apparent that the missing ingredient was the right coach.
b.) The '89 49ers were "inherited" by George Seifert. These are the only two 1st-year coaches to get the job done. Check it out:
*Only twice in SB history has a 1st-year coach (with new team) Won the Superbowl. Gruden with the Bucs and Seifort with the 49ers. Both of them "inherited contenders" as Dungy had taken his Bucs to the Playoffs in four of the last 5 seasons with them while Seifort inherited a SB Winner from the previous year.
This year there are 7 new coaches, none of which are inheriting a contender. Based on that, you would not expect to find the following teams in the Superbowl:
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins
4.) SB teams will rarely go with a coach who's been with them more than 5 years. In fact, in the last 26 Superbowls the head coach got there within his first five years or RETURNED within five SUBSEQUENT years. This is referrring to Winning the Superbowl. Let's take a look at that:
*Superbowl Winners: How long had the team's coach been with them when he Won a SB with them?
2003 NE Belichick Won 2nd subsequent year [since winning his last SB with them]
2002 Bucs Gruden Won 1st year
2001 NE Belichick Won 2nd year
2000 Ravens Billick Won 2nd year
1999 Rams Vermeil Won 3rd year
1998 Broncos Shanahan Won 1st subsequent year
1997 Broncos Shanahan Won 3rd year
1996 Packers Holmgren Won 5th year
1995 Cowboys Switzer Won 2nd year
1994 49ers Seifort Won 5th subsequent year
1993 Cowboys Johnson Won 1st subsequent year
1992 Cowboys Johnson Won 4th year
1991 Redskins Gibbs Won 4th subsquent year
1990 Giants Parcells Won 4th subsquent year
1989 49ers Seifert Won 1st year
1988 49ers Walsh Won 4th subsequent year
1987 Redskins Gibbs Won 5th subsequent year
1986 Giants Parcels Won 4th year
1985 Bears Ditka Won 4th year
1984 49ers Walsh Won 3rd subsequent year
1983 Raiders Flores Won 3rd subsequent year
1982 Redskins Gibbs Won 2nd year
1981 49ers Walsh Won 3rd year
1980 Raiders Flores Won 2nd year
1979 Steelers Noll Won 1st subsequent year
1978 Steelers Noll Won 3rd subsequent year
Analysis:
For 26 straight years the SB Winning Coach either won within his first five years with that team or Won AGAIN with that team within a subsequent five years of his last SB win with them.
In fact, only 3 of the 26 won in his 5th year or subsequent 5th year. Twenty-three out of 26 was within 4 years. The last time a SB Winning coach did it in more than five years was in 1977 when Don Shula won a SB with the Dolphins in his 6th subsequent year to his last SB win with them. However, Shula had BEEN to the SB only TWO years prior, having lost in 1975.
Apparently if it don't happen in five years, it don't happen. How many times have we seen coaches get off to a great start with a team but continue to fall short. Once they get past the first few years, they may keep having good seasons, but that's all. Marv Levy, Dennis Green, Jim Mora, Tony Dungy with the Bucs, Bud Grant, etc. Maybe it's that their motivational methods become familiar and therefore not as effective.
According to this, the following teams would not be expected to win the SB this season (remember, we're going with the percentages):
Denver
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Most notably are the Eagles (Reid in his 6th season) and Seahawks (Holmgren in his 6th Season). Regarding the Seahawks, Holmgren went to the Playoffs in his first Season in 1999, then followed up with a 6-win season in 2000. The Hawks rebounded in 2001 winning 9 games and the stage was set for a SB run in 2002. The hopes were high, but the Seahawks let down again winning only seven games. I think this year's squad is the best yet, but I have to be honest with you, I thought LAST season was to be their year if they were going to do it.
Although I picked the Cats to go last year in the NFC, I concurred with the pre-season hype that last year was do or die for Holmgren in Seattle. They were one of my Futures. After a 10-win season, he obviously did not die. But this year's hype is sounding too much like the hype of every pre-season since Holmgren's arrival--and ESPECIALLY last year. Seattle is strong and should win their division, but they'll have to buck a real trend of getting the job done past the 5-year mark.
Since the Jaguars and Panthers went to their respective Conference Championships in only their second year as franchises, the expectations changed. I wrote about this leading into the 1997 season, and it has proved to be true. Less time and tolerance for 'rebuilding' programs. Win Now. If "they" can do it, WE can do it--referring to the Jags and Cats. Since that 1996 Season, no SB Winning Coach has taken longer than 3 seasons to get the job done.
5.) In the last decade, SB teams Win in the Pre-Season. They also tend to win their Final Game of Pre-Season. The significance of the last decade is exceptional since it consists of two major changes. One, Free agency; and two, the "Win Now" mentality that has been prevalent since the Jags and Cats each went to their respective Conference finals in only their second seasons. No more "rebuilding" plans. Win Now. If THEY can do it, WE can do it (referring to the Cats and Jags). As a sidenote to the win-now era (1997 Season forward), every SB Winning coach in the last 7 seasons has done it within THREE years--not five.
6.) In the Last decade, SB teams tend to show strong defensive and/or opportunistic tendancies in regard to depth as evidenced by the amount of points they allow--or not allow--to be scored against them.
7.) Team history and judgement calls. Some times--not often--bad teams will fit most of this criteria and give a false read, like last year's Cardinals. I didn't bite. In those cases you might have to use judgement to eliminate those false reads. A potential false read this year is the Browns. But I'm gonna bite on that one. I like their coach in his 3rd year, and I like some of their additions on both sides of the ball, especially Garcia.
Having said all that, I'll skip the self-gratuitous rehash of how the Pats and Cats fit these scenarios like a glove last year and move on to this current season. But I do want to mention that these things also led me to pick the Titans in 1999 as my Most Improved Team of the Year and the Ravens in 2000 as my Most Improved Team of the Year. In both cases, they went to the Superbowl as dark horses (Fisher's best season in previous 4 years w/Titans-Oilers prior to '99 was 8-8).
Noticing the trend of those "most improved teams" going to the Superbowl, I got a little wiser last season. Once naming the Panthers as my "most improved" choice in a pre-season article a bettorschat, I went ahead and listed them as my SB choice as well. This year, I'm bucking that trend. My most improved team of the 2004 Season is not my SB choice. That team is...
*JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
While I fugure the Jags to be the most improved team in the NFL, I'm not listing them (officially) as my SB choice for a number of reasons. They are "a" SB choice (futures), but not "the" SB choice. Namely, the division they play in and the fact that there are no less than FIVE AFC teams to meet the above criteria (only 1 NFC team). The rise of the Jags is due largely in part to their stinging defense. Add to that the quick rise of Leftwich, Fred Taylor, the second-best front four in the NFL (panthers first), the acquistion of a better FG kicker, and the fact that this team out-statted 11 of 16 of their opponents last year, and you've got yourself a bonafide sleeper.
The only problem is that the Jags find themselves in the same division with the improved Texans and their near-equally awesome defense and strong coach, the SB-contending Indianapolis Colts whose coach and QB both got monkeys off their backs last season, and the Tennessee Titans who fit the criteria as a potential SB winner this year. Plus, there is a couple other AFC teams--Jets and Ravens--that look to have a serious impact in that conference this season.
Choosing an AFC SB choice was somewhat difficult. The five teams to meet the criteria were the Jets, Jags, Ravens, Titans, and Browns. I do not think the Browns will do it, but the Futures number was high enough and their talent-additions strong enough for me to consider them a worthy future play. That leaves the other four--any of which I believe could make a very real run for the bowl this season. Not to mention the non-qualifying but very capable Colts and Chiefs. You can see why it is hard to nail down one team in the AFC. But for now, we'll stick with the qualifying teams.
Of the five AFC possibililies--while still worthy futures--I eliminated the Browns as my SB choice based solely on judgement. I eliminated the Jags based on their division. I eliminated the Jets (reluctantly--watch out, they're for real) because, well, they're the Red Sox of the NFL. That left the Titans and Ravens. Very tough choice, but I went with the Ravens defense over and against a Titans team that might have to rely even more on McNair than ever before. There you have it, how I came up with the Ravens.
The NFC picture is significantly easier. The afforementioned SB Winning Criteria alone--without any objective judgement--eliminates all but one team, the Bucs. But here's some brief commentary on the NFC teams and why I believe the other 15 will not make the Superbowl...
Arizona Cardinals:
The Cards are a bad football team with a long history of losing. If Dennis Green couldn't get the job done with the 1998 15-1 Vikings, how in the world will he do it with this team--in his first year nonetheless. Remember, all my commentary is separate and aside from the fact that none of these 15 teams fit the SB Winning Criteria.
Atlanta Falcons:
First year coach Jim Mora Jr has a job on hand. Despite being his 1st year as an NFL Head Coach, he's assumed the League's worst defense who's best defensive draft player is injured. Second, the hopes and thrills of watching how teams would attempt to stop Vick and Price while containing the running game is all but out the window as the Falcons have thrown Vick to the wolves with the West Coast Offense.
Carolina Panthers:
I've listed the Panthers as a futures even though they did not qualify as a SB Winning team (technically). This is a strong team, but a couple reasons why I don't expect them in the SB this season is, one, the repeat factor. Or non-repeat factor. Two, the Panthers relied on no less than sevem 4th-Quarter comeback wins last season. Team is still strong and "could" go, but I'm going to opt playing the percentages with the SB Winning Criteria. Panthers were outdone in the defensive category by several NFC teams during pre-season--if you can believe that! I want to see DeShawn Foster and Ricky Manning Jr get more playing time.
Chicago Bears:
First year HC Lovie Smith will have the Bears improved all the way around, but will it be this season? The defense looks solid overall and the running game could prove beneficial, but the QB position is a big question mark. Tough division too with Vikes, Packers, and improving Lions under Mariucci.
Dallas Cowboys:
The Pokes. I am a huge Parcells fan, and like Colorado State's Sonny Lubick, he's money in the bank off 2 losses. But it seems to me he might do his usual 2nd year letdown. Bringing in Testaverde and Keyshawn looked good at first, or so I thought, since Billy is the master of maximizing the potential of players like these. Only problem is that Carter is gone now and Vinny is under the gun--a place where he's not usually comfortable. Dallas D will carry them again, but there are too many ?'s here including a suspect run.
Detroit Lions:
I would not be the least surprised to see the Lions give the Packers a run for 2nd place in the black and blue division. They are vastly improved on offense, and while their defense needs improvement, Mariucci could have this team inspired, all the more if they win their first road game. Not a SB contender though as the Lions have a case of Saints-itis. That is, buy low, sell high (see Barry Sanders book).
Green Bay Packers:
Initially I liked the Packers to represent the NFC in the SB this season as I pointed out in my preliminary NFL Preview. They could still make a run for it as their defense vastly improved in the final 8 games of last season allowing only one 300 yard game and only one 100 yard rusher during that span. They also ranked number one in Red Zone offense and #1 in Red Zone defense. If that's not enough, they were #1 in winning margin in their wins and #1 in losing margin (the least) in their losses. The 41-7 Monday Night thrasing of the Raiders last year on the heels of the passing of Favre's father was seemed indicative of things to come. Could that game be an indication of this season? Unfortunately, a few weeks later Farve made the bonehead throw of his career vs Philly in the Playoffs, costing them a trip to Carolina to play in the NFC Championship game. As stated in my pre-preseason preview: Pre-Season will be the tale of the tape on Favre and the Packers. The tape was ugly, resembling last year's Raiders during pre-season. I could happen, but the Pack missed the boat in virtually every category regarding SB Winning Criteria. No thanks.
Minnesota Vikings:
The Vikes were one of my Futures last season as I liked what I saw in HC Mike Tice and even more what I saw in the New Randy Moss who had a superb off-season last year both physically and mentally. The Vikes figure to win the NFC North this Season and many are picking them to go bowling. Besides the fact that they missed out on some key criteria, it doesn't escape my notice that the once 6-0 Vikings last year failed to make the playoffs for no apparent reason. On top of that, they still had a chance in their final game vs the worst team in the league (cardinals) and did not get the job done. That's the bottom line to me. SB coaches/teams don't mess up that way. They do not blow 6-0 starts and they do not blow games like Week 17 offered them. Will last season's debacle inspired them? Probably. Definately. But there is still something in the camp (in view of what I've mentioned) that does not smell like a SB team. Pick a SB Winning coach (Parcells, Gruden, Fox, etc.) and ask yourself if the same would've happened with them at the helm. I doubt it. Vikes 2-2 in pre-season, failed to win game 4, and gave up too many points. SB teams don't do that (history bears that out).
New Orleans Saints:
Oh boy, here we go. If you've followed my posts over the last six years at the forums, then you know how apt I am to "go off" on the Saints from time to time. It gets to a point where it sounds like a broken record. I'll spare you the antics. Suffice it to say that, after having watched their pre-season games with their starters, nothing has changed. They are still the most talented team in the NFC South and still the biggest bunch of underachievers in the NFL save the Miami Dolphins. Bottom line: If the Saint's HC will demand respect and their QB will get his head out of his proverbial Grill, no one in the NFC South will touch them and they will go deep into the playoffs. They are that good. But, as usual, that is a conditional, hypothetical situation. The Saints continue to look unfocussed, lacking in basic execution, and very fickle. They played like a golfe trying to get in a quick round before he has to run errands--distracted. That being said, if they get on a roll, look out. But that's not likely to happen unless Brooks gets injured or is benched. Then someone with enthusiasm--and hands to hang on to the pig--will make good things happen for the Saints. Then the Saints will trade the backup QB next year and he'll go to a Superbowl. Bottom line, the Saints aint's goin'.
New York Giants:
Hard to get a good read on the Giants, but they're not SB bound. Good coach, and offense will improve if the offensive line can hold the Sacks per game on Warner to under 50. Warner is not good under pressure and the O line MUST give him more time. Defense needs a LOT of help. That being said, they should be improved this year only because they cannot conceivably get any worse.
Philadelphia Eagles:
I've done about a 1/2 dozen writeups already at the forums as to why the Eagles will not make the SB this year. I don't even think they will win their Division or make the playoffs. They have been SO good for SO long, it's amazing to me that they have not made the big one under Andy Reid who is an excellent coach. The Ealges gelled for several years and returned the same basic core group for several years running. They made the NFC Championship game the last 3 seasons--the last 2 of which were at home--and somehow did not get the job done. Oh, wait a minute! It must be that they are lacking a cry baby, prema donna, wide receiver. THAT'S IT!!!! Sorry, folks, I find it borderline arrogant. The team was better without Terrel Owens, and the culprit of their failure in the NFC Games falls squarely on the shoulders of Donovan McNabb who threw too many interceptions at critical times in Big Games. The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to Win the Superbowl this year. Right. Three strikes and you're out. Eagles are O-U-T!
St Louis Rams:
Rams are toast. Mike Martz is extraordinarily aloof. "I" could've coached the Rams to the Superbowl in 2001, so not much credit for that. Bulger is brilliant but not in big games. The night before their final regular season game against one of the worst teams in the league--the Lions--Mike Martz told his team "our playoffs begin tomorrow", referring to their need to win in order to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Bulger responded with the worst game of his career. He then lost in the playoffs at home. Think THAT was pressure? How about trading Warner and putting the weight of the the Season solely on Bulger's shoulders? If the Rams break .500 it will only be because they are in a weak division with the 49ers and Cardinals. SB is out of the question.
San Francisco 49ers:
I figure the 49ers to be the worst team in the NFL this season. They'll battle the Cards for that distinction, but atleast Arizona has a coach. The Niners lost their starting QB, their starting WR, and their starting RB. On top of that they start out 0-2 right off the bat against the 'Hawks...you can bank that. Zero chance of making the bowl under Erickson.
Seattle Seahawks:
After realizing that my call on the Packers to represent the NFC in the SB was by the wayside, I reverted to my second choice Seahawks. They are strong in virtually every category. But by pre-season's end when they 'missed the cut' regarding SB Winning Criteria, I began to dig deeper. This is a team whose time has come, but in retrospect, they said that in 2000, 2001, 2002, and ESPECIALLY last year in 2003. I had them as a futures last season feeling like last year was the year. I think Holmgren and the Hawks may have passed their time. Nevertheless, although not my choice to go to the SB in the NFC, and although they didn't make the traditional "cut", I've got to include this team as a recommended hedge regarding futures. Why? Because they are that good. If they can get a split on the road this year and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they could go all the way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Leave it to John Gruden to get it right. I realize the Season has not started, but the Bucs are the only team to meet all of the criteria of SB Winning Teams the last decade. I believe. Keyshawn is gone and that is a big PLUS. Prior to pre-season I felt that the loss of Sapp and Lynch would hurt the Bucs too much to overcome. If their aggressive vanilla defense all the way down to the 4th stringers during pre-season are any indication of things to come, heck, this team could go all the way. Maybe not in the AFC, but the NFC is WIDE OPEN for someone to step forward, and this is my choice to do just that! I only had a handful of NFC considerations, and the few that I had just didn't cut the mustard; but lo', the Bucs look to surprise this year in a bounce back. Bucs go all the way!
Washington Redskins:
This is a team to watch. They could very easily win the NFC East this season and it would not surprise me. Maybe Danny boy has found the right coach and right mix here. Enter HC Joe Gibbs, offensive mastermind and winner of 3 Superbowls with 3 different QB's with these here Redskins in the 80's and early 90's. Enter seasoned, veteran QB Mark Brunell--a solid, accurate pocket passer yeilding 60% completions--to solve the long overdue QB issue with the 'skins. Then enter a top 3 league rusher in Clinton Portis and a dash of WR Lavernous Coles and you've got all you need to start moving the ball and scoring points---THIS SEASON. On the other side of the ball you can expect Miami draftee Sean Taylor to have an immediate impact defensively.
HINT: THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS ARE A SUPERBOWL CONTENDER IN 2005. You heard it here first.
AFC LOOK:
Baltimore Ravens:
I saw all I needed to see in the Raves very first Pre-Season game. This defense is beginning to emulate the 2000 version, and we know what happened then. With the Rushing of Jamal Lewis and the Raven's Pistons-like, ungodly defense, I do not see how this team can miss in 2004. Billick has been there. He has an uncanny ability to cater to his team's strengths and carry his team's weaknesses, whatever they be. Billick is back this year, and Boller is sufficient. If Prime Time can pull his weight and not be a high profile distraction, the Ravens will take the AFC this year. Remember: Defense wins Championships, not Manning-like numbers or Swiss Cheifs defenses.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills could be the worst team in the AFC, if not for their respectable defense. Steeler protege' Mike Mularkey takes over as head coach and has the unfortunate task of making something out of, well, not much. Atleast offensively speaking. Bills have a tough schedule this year and you can count them a distant 4th the in the AFC East behind the Jets, Pats, and Dolphins, in that order. Next.
Cincinnatti Bengals:
Well somehow the Bungals managed to do it again. They start winning and then they make a boneheaded move like, I dunno, bench a seasoned veteran QB in the prime of his career off the best season of his career and off a near-pro bowl year. Not a good time to bring in a rookie. Bungals lost Dillon to boot. He may not have been happy in Cincy, but man can he run. Look for the Bengals to finish a deserved last place in the AFC North. The fun begins September 12th when the Jets BLOW THEM OFF THE PLANET.
Cleveland Browns:
Having a hard time getting a read here, but early thoughts are that the Browns have finally improved on defense. Add in Garcia at QB and they could bounce back strong this season. AFC North could be a tight race minus the Bungals. Browns made superbowl criteria, but so did last year's cards. I'm buying here...for now. Let's see where they stand after six weeks.
Denver Broncos:
I was originally really high on the Broncos this season, but then they got rid of Portis. Granted, the ponies always find a back, but still; c'mon. I guess we'll see. Plummer was 9-3 as a starter with a decent TD-Int ratio. If the D can hold up to top ten standards and Griffin comes through at tailback, they'll be in the playoffs and probably win the AFC West. But the competition is a bit stiff in the AFC to give them a SB nod, especially having not met many SB Winning Criteria. I look for the Broncos to win the AFC West and go out in the first or second round.
Houston Texans:
I've heard some hype this year, but I'm not sure I'm sold. The defense is solid, Carr is looking much better with more time, and their receiving core is improved along with a solid running game. But can they WIN football games? The AFC South is a heck of a division to be in, and the AFC is too tough to consider the Texans much of a serious threat. More of the same here, but better; the losses will be closer and they could be live dogs ATS.
Indianapolis Colts:
Same 'ole song and dance. Show me the money. Translation: show me the defense. Yeah, the D will improve some and, yes, Dungy and Manning got the Playoff Monkeys off their backs. But when playoff time rolls around, it's all about defense. This division is close, very close. With the vastly improved Jags and upcoming Texans, the Titans and Colts could find those sweeps a little tougher.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
This is my Most Improved Team of the Year. In my last three previous 'declarations' of my most improved team, they all made the Superbowl. Jacksonville has every necessary ingredient to make the Superbowl. I want to state that emphatically. In the same vein as the Panters last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars have everything necessary to make a Superbowl Run. I just don't think they will. Would it surprise me? Absolutely not in the least. Wouldn't that be fun...and all-Florida Superbowl being played in Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs:
For the 3rd straight year the Chiefs failed to significantly address their defensive woes. At least they replaced the DC. If Gunther Cunningham turns up the heat defensively and the Chiefs maintain status quo offensively, no one will stop them from being Superbowl bound. That's a big if, and for now I will stick with history and give them a no-go. Denver should edge them in the AFC West.
Miami Dolphins:
If this team could not get it done with all the talent they have had the last 2 seasons, I have no, none, reason to believe anything will be different this year. With the re-signing of Dave Wannstedt and Williams being gone, well, I'll give them a generous 3rd in the AFC East.
New England Patriots:
I cannot put my finger on it, but the feeling here is that something ain't right in camp. The addition of Dillon will not improve the Patriots in my opinion. The addition and/or substraction of ANYBODY would not improve what they already have. Something is not right in the Pats camp, and while they are still good enough and disciplined enough to beat anyone, anywhere, and go all they way, I don't think they will.
New York Jets:
The Jets pre-season numbers are some of the best in the last decade compared to past SB Winners and remarkably resemble the Pats numbers of last year. After Pennington's breakout year in 2002 the Jets were let down by his injury and a slow start last season. I look for the Jets to make a very strong rebound, win the AFC East, and make a serious SB run. Nothing is more important to Herman Edwards than to AVOID a slow start this year. Stacked up against the Bungals in their opener, it could get ugly. Jets ARE for real this season.
Oakland Raiders:
The Raiders turned in a respectable pre-season, and COULD be on the rebound. My default setting with Norv Turner is that he is not the one to take an NFL team very far. Another coach and I would be giving the waders harder look, but not until Turner is gone.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
I look for Pittsburgh to be improved this year. The Bus had a good pre-season and Cowher will look to get back to old time Steeler feetball. Unfortunately they have to face the Raves twice and probably won't do better than a split with the new-found Browns. Defense still shaky. No SB this year, and will battle the Browns for second place behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Could be good OVER team.
San Diego Chargers:
The Chargers put up some good numbers in pre-season, but I view them as a false read similar to last year's cards. They also finished out last year fairly strong in the stats. With Rivers, Flutie, and Brees on board, the feeling here is that there is too much uncertainty regarding the QB position and overall as well. Chargers are not going to challege the AFC West Title and will probably bring up the cellar behind the Raiders.
Tennessee Titans:
Tennesse almost made the big dance last year, and could very well emulate that success again this season. Their defense should edge out the Colts for the Division, and having met all the SB Winning Criteria, I wouldn't count them out. Loss of Eddies George will have minimal effect in my opinion. McNair continues to prove his toughness, and will find a way to get the job done with the receivers at hand. Tennessee or Jets likely to play Ravens in AFC Championship game.\
Division Winners:
AFC EAST: JETS
AFC NORTH: RAVENS
AFC SOUTH: TITANS
AFC WEST: BRONCOS
NFC EAST: REDSKINS
NFC NORTH: VIKINGS
NFC SOUTH: BUCS
NFC WEST: SEAHAWKS
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: JETS OR TITANS VS RAVENS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: SEAHAWKS VS BUCS
SUPERBOWL: RAVENS VS BUCS
SUPERBOWL WINNER: RAVENS
FUTURES:
1.) To WIN the NCAA Championship:
*OKLAHOMA +400
*FLORIDA STATE +800
2.) To WIN the AFC Championship:
*RAVENS +650
*JAGUARS +1400
*TITANS +1600
*JETS +1800
*BROWNS +2000
3.) To WIN the NFC Championship:
*SEAHAWKS +400
*PANTHERS +1200
*BUCS +1600
*REDSKINS +1600
4.) To WIN the Superbowl:
*RAVENS +1000
*SEAHAWKS +1600
*JAGUARS +2200
*TITANS +2200
*PANTHERS +2250
*BUCS +2500
*REDSKINS +2800
*JETS +4000
*BROWNS +5000
5.) To WIN Division:
*JETS to WIN AFC EAST +400
*BRONCOS to WIN AFC WEST +180
*REDSKINS to WIN NFC EAST +325
*VIKINGS to WIN NFC NORTH -130
*BUCS to WIN NFC SOUTH +250
6.) Team Wins OVER/UNDER:
*RAVENS OVER 9.0 -175
*BRONCOS OVER 9.0 -150
*JAGUARS OVER 7.5 -165
*BUCS OVER 9.0 -105
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