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**Warrior** · 09-03-2004, 09:24 AM

Superbowl Winners: How long had the team's coach been with them when he Won a SB with them?

2003 NE Belichick Won 2nd subsequent year [to winning his 1st with them]
2002 Bucs Gruden Won 1st year
2001 NE Belichick Won 2nd year
2000 Ravens Billick Won 2nd year
1999 Rams Vermeil Won 3rd year
1998 Broncos Shanahan Won 1st subsequent year
1997 Broncos Shanahan Won 3rd year
1996 Packers Holmgren Won 5th year
1995 Cowboys Switzer Won 2nd year
1994 49ers Seifort Won 5th subsequent year
1993 Cowboys Johnson Won 1st subsequent year
1992 Cowboys Johnson Won 4th year
1991 Redskins Gibbs Won 4th subsquent year
1990 Giants Parcells Won 4th subsquent year
1989 49ers Seifert Won 1st year
1988 49ers Walsh Won 4th subsequent year
1987 Redskins Gibbs Won 5th subsequent year
1986 Giants Parcels Won 4th year
1985 Bears Ditka Won 4th year
1984 49ers Walsh Won 3rd subsequent year
1983 Raiders Flores Won 3rd subsequent year
1982 Redskins Gibbs Won 2nd year
1981 49ers Walsh Won 3rd year
1980 Raiders Flores Won 2nd year
1979 Steelers Noll Won 1st subsequent year
1978 Steelers Noll Won 3rd subsequent year

Analysis:

For 26 straight years the SB Winning Coach either won within his first five years with that team or Won AGAIN with that team within a subsequent five years of his last SB win with them.

In fact, only 3 of the 26 won in his 5th year or subsequent 5th year. Twenty-three out of 26 was within 4 years. The last time a SB Winning coach did it in more than five years was in 1977 when Don Shula won a SB with the Dolphins in his 6th subsequent year to his last SB win with them. However, Shula had BEEN to the SB only TWO years prior, having lost in 1975.

Apparently if it don't happen in five years, it don't happen. How many times have we seen coaches get off to a great start with a team but continue to fall short. Once they get past the first few years, they may keep having good seasons, but that's all. Marv Levy, Dennis Green, Jim Mora, Tony Dungy with the Bucs, Bud Grant, etc.

According to this, the following teams would not win the SB this season:

Denver
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Seattle

Most notably are the Eagles (Reid in his 6th season) and Seahawks (Holmgren in his 6th Season). Regarding the Seahawks, Holmgren went to the Playoffs in his first Season in 1999, then followed up with a 6-win season in 2000. The Hawks rebounded in 2001 winning 9 games and the stage was set for a SB run in 2002. The hopes were high, but the Seahawks let down again winning only seven games. I think this year's squad is the best yet, but I have to be honest with you, I thought LAST season was to be their year if they were going to do it.

Although I picked the Cats to go last year in the NFC, I concurred with the pre-season hype that last year was do or die for Holmgren in Seattle. They were one of my Futures. After a 10-win season, he obviously did not die. But this year's hype is sounding too much like the hype of every pre-season since Holmgren's arrival--and ESPECIALLY last year. Seattle is strong and should win their division, but they'll have to buck a real trend of getting the job done past the 5-year mark.

Since the Jaguars and Panthers went to their respective Conference Championships in only their second year as franchises, the expectations changed. I wrote about this leading into the 1997 season, and it has proved to be true. Less time and tolerance for 'rebuilding' programs. Win Now. If "they" can do it, WE can do it--referring to the Jags and Cats. Since that 1996 Season, no SB Winning Coach has taken longer than 3 seasons to get the job done.

Also of note is that only twice during these 26 years has a 1st-year coach (with new team) Won the Superbowl. Gruden with the Bucs and Seifort with the 49ers. Both of them "inherited contenders" as Dungy had taken his Bucs to the Playoffs in four of the last 5 seasons with them while Seifort inherited a SB Winner from the previous year.

This year there are 7 new coaches, none of which are inheriting a contender. Based on that, you would not expect to find the following teams in the Superbowl:

Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Washington Redskins

This is just 1 of many things I look at when picking SB Winners, Contenders, Division Winners, Team Wins Totals, and stuff like that for Futures plays. Division Winners went 1-0 last year, Teams Wins 7-0 last year, and cashed in on the Panthers @ 35-1 to win the NFC and Pats at 11-1 to win the AFC and 35-1 to win the Superbowl.

My NFL Preview/Futures edition goes out Tuesday, September 7th, and is the first of 22 Issues of my Spread Report Online. The tipsheet runs 7 bucks per Issue. If you're interested, feel free to contact me or visit the site. Thanks...

dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990

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