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Insider Edge Sports – Report For Saturday, August 28, 2004
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens 8:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens –3.5 -110 (2 Units)
We like Baltimore to bounce back after their loss to the Eagles on the road last weekend. Facing a Detroit team that cannot win on the road makes things a little easier. For the last three seasons, the Lions have been the worst road team in NFL history. They’ve lost every game for three years 24 straight. And that is just the regular season. The Lions’ last victory away from home was against the Jets in their final road game of 2000. They have also lost 6 straight on the road during preseason.
Offensively, the Lions are starting to come around, compared to last season at least. They still aren’t a team to be afraid of and they are young, so it will be hard for them to break through the tough defense of the Ravens. It’s been the defense has been suspect. Pittsburgh and Cleveland gained yards in chunks, particularly on the ground, when their regulars were playing. The defense is more worrisome for Coach Steve Mariucci. Injuries have been a factor. Three linebackers who were counted on for playing time, Boss Bailey, James Davis and rookie Alex Lewis, are injured. Only Davis has played in the exhibition season, and he went out in the Cleveland game because of a sprained right ankle. Health aside, the concerns for the Lions have to be the lack of an outside pass rush and the way Pittsburgh and Cleveland were able to run. Unless something changes, the Lions’ offense will have to carry the team.
Kyle Boller is still inconsistent as his completion percentage has not been that great. Generally, though, the second-year quarterback has drawn decent reviews from the coaching staff as he tries to improve his fundamentals and mechanics. "He has progressed very well," Ravens coach Brian Billick said. "The thing that I am most encouraged about is the way that Kyle has handled difficult situations. Whether it is someone running a wrong route or a protection breakdown, his fundamentals in the pocket have been very good.” Going against a Detroit defense that will have trouble getting any sort of rush at him will keep him relaxed and in the pocket. That is where he does his best work. Backup Kordell Stewart isn’t showing much either as his number are pretty gaudy but he has led two touchdown drives in his seven possessions, a statistic that reaffirms Billick's faith in him. "He's had a scoring drive every time he's been in there," Billick said. "He's made some big plays. I don't know that he's struggled any more than anybody else."
The number is bigger than we would like with an average Baltimore offense, but based on past experiences, it shouldn’t be a problem. When Baltimore wins in the preseason they tend to cover and vice versa for the Lions. Baltimore is 12-0-1 ATS under Billick when they win straight up and 18-1-1 ATS dating back to 1995. Meanwhile, Detroit is 1-29 ATS in games they lose, showing that when they lose, it isn’t close.
Grab our One Day Pass for $14.95 and get all of today’s action – NCAA USC/Virginia Tech, NFL Miami/Tampa Bay Plus 3 MLB Winners – 5 more plays in total. Guaranteed to profit or you get a full refund plus a week of service absolutely FREE! First game today is at 1:15 PM ET
*** Click Here For Saturday’s One Day Pass - $14.95 ***
The college football season starts TODAY with the BCA Classic between Virginia Tech and USC. We have your winner all set to go in that matchup along with our world-renowned game analysis. Get this game along with every other winner we release through the 2005 Super Bowl for only $299. This Special offer ends after kickoff of the Virginia Tech/USC game so act now. You also receive all baseball selections through the World Series and the remainder of the NFL Preseason.
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
What is included besides winning NFL and NCAA Seasons?
Members get access to our highly sought after “Inside The Boxscores” College Football Weekly Recap. Looking inside the boxes of every game every weekend is the first step in capping the following weekend slate of games – we do that for you. No other service provides this information to you on a weekly basis:
Inside The Boxscores - NCAA Week 10
Detailed Game Writeups with every football play we release. We don’t throw darts like most and we prove why.
If you haven’t checked out our preseason articles, here they are for you now:
The Significance of the Running Game - 2004 Update
10 Most Significant Spring Injuries Heading Into 2004
2004 NCAA Football Coaching Changes
2004 NCAA Football Transfers Who Will Make an Early Impact
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
Looking at the NFL upcoming season, we have uncovered some incredible systems that will go into our handicapping. A couple examples:
Since 1995, NFL home underdogs getting 7.5 points or more who have a winning percentage of 10% or below and are off a loss are 23-1-1 ATS!
Since 2000, Tampa Bay is 0-16 ATS as a home favorite when they are coming off a win and their opponent allowed between 13 and 25 points in their previous game!
And there are 162 others that are just as strong.
Taking our NFL Insider Power™ Systems, we concluded that combining 5 of our top systems gave us a 2003 winning percentage of 66.4%. The record ended 71-36 and while that is outstanding, it is a lot of games to be playing on a weekly basis. An average of 6.3 games per week to be exact. Playing too many games can be the death of a gambler so we decided to tighten the systems by using a minimum z-rating which in turn would give us less plays overall but would in turn be much stronger.
The results once again are remarkable. Tightening our 5 strongest systems gives us an even better 71.4% winning percentage while playing much less games (67 – less than 4 per week). Decreasing the games lessens the risk but our ROI actually increases by over 16%. The difference in profit ended up being only $100 based on $1100 bets. There were just 3 losing weeks out of 17 total weeks in the regular season.
Regular Systems Run – 71W-36L 66.4%
Investment $117,700 – Return $31,400 = ROI 26.7%
Tightened Systems Run – 50W-17L 74.6%
Investment $73,700 – Return $31,300 = ROI 42.5%
These numbers look way to good to be true so it is possible 2003 was a very “lucky” year for the systems. In order to find out, we went back 4 more years through 1999 and crunched the same Insider Power™ Systems in the tighter version. What did we find? Much of the very same success.
1999 50-20 71.4%
2000 48-23 67.6%
2001 59-15 79.7%
2002 61-20 75.3%
Only in 2000 did we receive a ROI under 30% while the total ROI for the 5-year span was a generous 40.9%!
1999 Investment $77,000 – Return $28,000 = ROI 36.4%
2000 Investment $78,100 – Return $22,700 = ROI 29.1%
2001 Investment $81,400 – Return $42,500 = ROI 52.2%
2002 Investment $89,100 – Return $39,000 = ROI 43.8%
5-year Investment $399,300 – Return $163,500 = ROI 40.9%
We are ecstatic at these findings and the best thing about it is that there are no judgment calls on the games – they either qualify or they don’t. The ones that do qualify will receive many more lookovers based on our other handicapping techniques such as injuries, weather and statistics. The remaining systems come into play when deciding on unit values.
Hopefully we have your attention now. Our Preseason Football Package gets all of these winners through the Super Bowl, which also includes the NFL Preseason, the NCAA Football Season, the remaining MLB Season and the start of the NBA and NCAA Hoops Seasons. All for only $299. Come and join our big group of members that will reap the benefits of these sensational NFL Insider Power™ Systems!!
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens 8:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens –3.5 -110 (2 Units)
We like Baltimore to bounce back after their loss to the Eagles on the road last weekend. Facing a Detroit team that cannot win on the road makes things a little easier. For the last three seasons, the Lions have been the worst road team in NFL history. They’ve lost every game for three years 24 straight. And that is just the regular season. The Lions’ last victory away from home was against the Jets in their final road game of 2000. They have also lost 6 straight on the road during preseason.
Offensively, the Lions are starting to come around, compared to last season at least. They still aren’t a team to be afraid of and they are young, so it will be hard for them to break through the tough defense of the Ravens. It’s been the defense has been suspect. Pittsburgh and Cleveland gained yards in chunks, particularly on the ground, when their regulars were playing. The defense is more worrisome for Coach Steve Mariucci. Injuries have been a factor. Three linebackers who were counted on for playing time, Boss Bailey, James Davis and rookie Alex Lewis, are injured. Only Davis has played in the exhibition season, and he went out in the Cleveland game because of a sprained right ankle. Health aside, the concerns for the Lions have to be the lack of an outside pass rush and the way Pittsburgh and Cleveland were able to run. Unless something changes, the Lions’ offense will have to carry the team.
Kyle Boller is still inconsistent as his completion percentage has not been that great. Generally, though, the second-year quarterback has drawn decent reviews from the coaching staff as he tries to improve his fundamentals and mechanics. "He has progressed very well," Ravens coach Brian Billick said. "The thing that I am most encouraged about is the way that Kyle has handled difficult situations. Whether it is someone running a wrong route or a protection breakdown, his fundamentals in the pocket have been very good.” Going against a Detroit defense that will have trouble getting any sort of rush at him will keep him relaxed and in the pocket. That is where he does his best work. Backup Kordell Stewart isn’t showing much either as his number are pretty gaudy but he has led two touchdown drives in his seven possessions, a statistic that reaffirms Billick's faith in him. "He's had a scoring drive every time he's been in there," Billick said. "He's made some big plays. I don't know that he's struggled any more than anybody else."
The number is bigger than we would like with an average Baltimore offense, but based on past experiences, it shouldn’t be a problem. When Baltimore wins in the preseason they tend to cover and vice versa for the Lions. Baltimore is 12-0-1 ATS under Billick when they win straight up and 18-1-1 ATS dating back to 1995. Meanwhile, Detroit is 1-29 ATS in games they lose, showing that when they lose, it isn’t close.
Grab our One Day Pass for $14.95 and get all of today’s action – NCAA USC/Virginia Tech, NFL Miami/Tampa Bay Plus 3 MLB Winners – 5 more plays in total. Guaranteed to profit or you get a full refund plus a week of service absolutely FREE! First game today is at 1:15 PM ET
*** Click Here For Saturday’s One Day Pass - $14.95 ***
The college football season starts TODAY with the BCA Classic between Virginia Tech and USC. We have your winner all set to go in that matchup along with our world-renowned game analysis. Get this game along with every other winner we release through the 2005 Super Bowl for only $299. This Special offer ends after kickoff of the Virginia Tech/USC game so act now. You also receive all baseball selections through the World Series and the remainder of the NFL Preseason.
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
What is included besides winning NFL and NCAA Seasons?
Members get access to our highly sought after “Inside The Boxscores” College Football Weekly Recap. Looking inside the boxes of every game every weekend is the first step in capping the following weekend slate of games – we do that for you. No other service provides this information to you on a weekly basis:
Inside The Boxscores - NCAA Week 10
Detailed Game Writeups with every football play we release. We don’t throw darts like most and we prove why.
If you haven’t checked out our preseason articles, here they are for you now:
The Significance of the Running Game - 2004 Update
10 Most Significant Spring Injuries Heading Into 2004
2004 NCAA Football Coaching Changes
2004 NCAA Football Transfers Who Will Make an Early Impact
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
Looking at the NFL upcoming season, we have uncovered some incredible systems that will go into our handicapping. A couple examples:
Since 1995, NFL home underdogs getting 7.5 points or more who have a winning percentage of 10% or below and are off a loss are 23-1-1 ATS!
Since 2000, Tampa Bay is 0-16 ATS as a home favorite when they are coming off a win and their opponent allowed between 13 and 25 points in their previous game!
And there are 162 others that are just as strong.
Taking our NFL Insider Power™ Systems, we concluded that combining 5 of our top systems gave us a 2003 winning percentage of 66.4%. The record ended 71-36 and while that is outstanding, it is a lot of games to be playing on a weekly basis. An average of 6.3 games per week to be exact. Playing too many games can be the death of a gambler so we decided to tighten the systems by using a minimum z-rating which in turn would give us less plays overall but would in turn be much stronger.
The results once again are remarkable. Tightening our 5 strongest systems gives us an even better 71.4% winning percentage while playing much less games (67 – less than 4 per week). Decreasing the games lessens the risk but our ROI actually increases by over 16%. The difference in profit ended up being only $100 based on $1100 bets. There were just 3 losing weeks out of 17 total weeks in the regular season.
Regular Systems Run – 71W-36L 66.4%
Investment $117,700 – Return $31,400 = ROI 26.7%
Tightened Systems Run – 50W-17L 74.6%
Investment $73,700 – Return $31,300 = ROI 42.5%
These numbers look way to good to be true so it is possible 2003 was a very “lucky” year for the systems. In order to find out, we went back 4 more years through 1999 and crunched the same Insider Power™ Systems in the tighter version. What did we find? Much of the very same success.
1999 50-20 71.4%
2000 48-23 67.6%
2001 59-15 79.7%
2002 61-20 75.3%
Only in 2000 did we receive a ROI under 30% while the total ROI for the 5-year span was a generous 40.9%!
1999 Investment $77,000 – Return $28,000 = ROI 36.4%
2000 Investment $78,100 – Return $22,700 = ROI 29.1%
2001 Investment $81,400 – Return $42,500 = ROI 52.2%
2002 Investment $89,100 – Return $39,000 = ROI 43.8%
5-year Investment $399,300 – Return $163,500 = ROI 40.9%
We are ecstatic at these findings and the best thing about it is that there are no judgment calls on the games – they either qualify or they don’t. The ones that do qualify will receive many more lookovers based on our other handicapping techniques such as injuries, weather and statistics. The remaining systems come into play when deciding on unit values.
Hopefully we have your attention now. Our Preseason Football Package gets all of these winners through the Super Bowl, which also includes the NFL Preseason, the NCAA Football Season, the remaining MLB Season and the start of the NBA and NCAA Hoops Seasons. All for only $299. Come and join our big group of members that will reap the benefits of these sensational NFL Insider Power™ Systems!!
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
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