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**Warrior** · 08-26-2004, 03:29 PM

**Warrior** · 08-26-2004, 06:26 PM

Should be able to get this at 9.0 +100 now...

dave

**Warrior** · 08-26-2004, 07:56 PM

49ers @ VIKINGS

The line on this game is rather steep a for pre-season game. I don't expect the 49ers to be much this year, but at 0-2 there's got to be a sense of urgency for Erickson. They need to get a pre-season win going here, and if nothing else I would expect them to keep the game close.

Erickson in Pre-Season was 3-1 SU last year with the Niners. He is 5-1 ATS lifetime off a loss, 5-0 ATS lifetime Week Three, and 8-3 ATS lifetime on the Road. The 49ers are 5-0 SU and ATS off back-to-back losses. In contrast, Mike Tice is 2-3 SU at home and 1-4 ATS with the Vikings.

If San Francisco had been inept up to this point (like the Raiders last year in Pre-Season), then I would be careful with the situation. But they've shown some offensive prowess so far, surprisingly to me. Erickson will have his crew ready and they should get the SU win here. Getting a touchdown is a bonus...

*49ers +7 over VIKINGS

Redskins @ RAMS

Along with my four picks last week, I posted an alert regarding the total in Monday Night's game. A lot of action was coming in on the OVER and I made a strong case to lay off. The game came in UNDER the total.

That's what I'm looking at in this game. Not a pick, but an alert. I never want to take someone off a winner by issuing an alert in the event that I'm wrong, but my purpose is always about information.

What I see in this game is a classic situation where money would come in on the Rams. In fact, I initially liked the Rams in this game. At 0-2 and playing at home, they've got to get a win here. Looks easy right? Too easy.

After further thought I don't like this game. I would be very careful. The Rams may very well get the win and cover, but something stinks here and I'm going to recommend a pass. Here's why:

In last year's playoff game I mentioned that Bulger--as good of a Season as he had--was not a pressure QB. I don't mean that he can't handle pressure from the defensive Front Four, I mean that he cannot handle pressure GAMES.

Prior to the Carolina Playoff game (playoff game=pressure game) I pointed out that Bulger had collapsed at Detroit, one of the worst teams in the league. Why did he collapse after such a brilliant year?

Well, the Rams had to beat the Lions for home field throughout the playoffs. The night before the game, Martz told his team, "Our Playoffs begin tomorrow". Apparently that's all it took as Bulger had his worst game of the Season.

When I first posted my initial Preview Issue about a month ago, I pointed out that Bulger could very well have a rough Season. Why? Because now the "pressure" is on. This is HIS team now...no Warner to fall back on. I dont' think he will handle that pressure well. That is why I'm recommending a pass on this game, but that's not the only reason.

The Redskins seem to have something cooking in the capital. Don't look now, but they are 2-1 with their only loss being a 3-pointer in OT to last year's NFC Champs (who happen to enjoy a 6-0 record in Pre-Season). The Redskins handed Shanahan his first opening day loss in 11 tries and shutout Miami on the Road.

Conventional pre-season wisdom points to the Rams, and I almost went for it. Beware this game. If you miss a winner, there will be other games. But the afforementioned extenuating circumstances strongly suggest laying off...

*PASS

Saints @ BEARS

Another beware game here. Tempting to take Saints +3 who are traditionally good pre-Season team. But they are also fickle. I would dare to go with the Saints here off a loss if Lovie Smith were not the HC of the Bears. I'm recommending a pass. Smith has opened up the pre-season 2-0 SU and ATS. The verdict is still out on Smith and he might have something good starting to happen in the Windy City. Be careful.

*PASS

Friday RECAP:

*49ers +7 over VIKINGS

The is still 5 days left to get the 25% discount for my Annual Football Tipsheet. I runs for 22 Issues and is about 5 and a half bucks per copy. For more info, feel free to contact me...

dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424=6990

**GoldVike** · 08-26-2004, 11:40 PM

Good

Luck Dave....but it is looking like playing unders lately in the American League are borline suicide! 1st inning 4-1! However....these are two very inept teams but tonight they have equally inept pitchers going for them. The luck I am having seems no better with the over 11 in MINN/TEX and sitting at ten runs since the bottom of the sixth and now the bottom of the 8th! Time to crank out the late season MLB systems and shelf the mid-terms! BEST OF LUCK TO YOU!! Gv

**Warrior** · 08-27-2004, 01:20 AM

Yeah it's not looking good at 6-1 bottom of the 6th. I didn't expect Moyer to give it up today, and while Anderson's season era was over six prior to the game, I expected a top effort from him and the outfield after giving up 21 yesterday. Moyer didn't perform as I expected...

Hey, it's not over yet!

gl,
dave

**Warrior** · 08-27-2004, 02:49 AM

7-3 Final...4 runs in the top of the 1st too much to overcome despite 5 scoreless innings...Moyer folded...

dave

**Warrior** · 08-27-2004, 02:57 AM

Let's stick with this game again for...

FRIDAY: *MARINERS -150 over Royals

dave

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Royals @ MARINERS

Royals @ MARINERS

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