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Insider Edge Sports – Report For Thursday, August 26, 2004
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles 8:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (2 Units)
This is the week where the starters see the most playing time of the entire preseason but it will be interesting to see if that will be the case for the Eagles. They are killed right now by injuries and taking too many chances with their first team might not be the call here. As the Eagles approach their third preseason game, they are already down three offensive players for the season - running backs Correll Buckhalter and Bruce Perry, and offensive lineman Jamaal Jackson. Another dozen players are sidelined with injuries and unable to practice. Things are not good for the defense, where the Eagles have also lost defensive end N.D. Kalu for the season to a torn ACL. Adding to Philly’s woes for Thursday’s game, six defenders (including free safety Brian Dawkins) are definitely out, DT Corey Simon is doubtful with a lingering foot injury, and another seven are listed as questionable. Even with Nate Wayne back, the Eagles will be very thin at linebacker against the Steelers, with only six in uniform.
With their thin defense, the Eagles should have trouble with the Steelers strength so far in the preseason – running the ball. The Steelers have 378 yards rushing in two preseason games. Head coach Bill Cowher and coordinator Ken Whisenhunt have put more emphasis on their ground game after it slid to a No. 31 ranking in the NFL last season, their lowest ever. They will continue to do that on Thursday as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 4.7 ypc through their first two games, third in the league, while the Eagles are allowing 4.9 ypc, second worst in the league. Even though a knee injury has ended the season of right guard Kendall Simmons, the offensive line has blocked effectively. Keydrick Vincent, about to enter his first season as a starter, will do fine as Simmons' replacement. Tommy Maddox has been nearly flawless in camp and in games. He led Pittsburgh to touchdowns on two of three drives against Houston Saturday night
Offensively, Philadelphia has not shown much. Besides an 81-yard pass play on the first play from scrimmage, the Eagles mustered only 201 yards of offense in their last game against the Ravens. They gained just 217 yards in their opener against New England. The loss of Buckhalter is huge for the Eagles, who signed veteran Dorsey Levens this week to fill the void. Pittsburgh has not played the greatest of offenses yet but they are allowing opponents just 235 ypg. They are giving up 2.9 ypc on the ground and if not for a 28-yard run by the Texans, that number drops to 2.4 ypc.
The first units for Pittsburgh will stay in at least through the first half. "I feel like a full half at this point is important," Cowher said. "I want them to get [used] to playing. At the same time, I'm not so much worried about injuries, but we need to evaluate some of the other guys." Duce Staley will return to Philadelphia for the first time since signing with Pittsburgh in the offseason. The Eagles are notoriously a bad team when laying chalk, going 12-20 ATS including 2-6 ATS as a favorite their last 8. They are also 2-6 ATS as a favorite against .500 teams or better.
Grab our One Day Pass for $14.95 and get all of today’s baseball action – 4 plays in total. Guaranteed to profit or you get a full refund plus a week of service absolutely FREE! First game today is at 1:10 PM ET
*** Click Here For Thursday’s One Day Pass - $14.95 ***
The college football season starts in 2 days with the BCA Classic between Virginia Tech and USC. We have your winner all set to go in that matchup along with our world-renowned game analysis. Get this game along with every other winner we release through the 2005 Super Bowl for only $299. This Special offer ends after kickoff of the Virginia Tech/USC so act now. You also receive all baseball selections through the World Series and the remainder of the NFL Preseason.
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
What is included besides winning NFL and NCAA Seasons?
Members get access to our highly sought after “Inside The Boxscores” College Football Weekly Recap. Looking inside the boxes of every game every weekend is the first step in capping the following weekend slate of games – we do that for you. No other service provides this information to you on a weekly basis:
Inside The Boxscores - NCAA Week 10
Detailed Game Writeups with every football play we release. We don’t throw darts like most and we prove why.
If you haven’t checked out our preseason articles, here they are for you now:
The Significance of the Running Game - 2004 Update
10 Most Significant Spring Injuries Heading Into 2004
2004 NCAA Football Coaching Changes
2004 NCAA Football Transfers Who Will Make an Early Impact
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
Looking at the NFL upcoming season, we have uncovered some incredible systems that will go into our handicapping. A couple examples:
Since 1995, NFL home underdogs getting 7.5 points or more who have a winning percentage of 10% or below and are off a loss are 23-1-1 ATS!
Since 2000, Tampa Bay is 0-16 ATS as a home favorite when they are coming off a win and their opponent allowed between 13 and 25 points in their previous game!
And there are 162 others that are just as strong.
Taking our NFL Insider Power™ Systems, we concluded that combining 5 of our top systems gave us a 2003 winning percentage of 66.4%. The record ended 71-36 and while that is outstanding, it is a lot of games to be playing on a weekly basis. An average of 6.3 games per week to be exact. Playing too many games can be the death of a gambler so we decided to tighten the systems by using a minimum z-rating which in turn would give us less plays overall but would in turn be much stronger.
The results once again are remarkable. Tightening our 5 strongest systems gives us an even better 71.4% winning percentage while playing much less games (67 – less than 4 per week). Decreasing the games lessens the risk but our ROI actually increases by over 16%. The difference in profit ended up being only $100 based on $1100 bets. There were just 3 losing weeks out of 17 total weeks in the regular season.
Regular Systems Run – 71W-36L 66.4%
Investment $117,700 – Return $31,400 = ROI 26.7%
Tightened Systems Run – 50W-17L 74.6%
Investment $73,700 – Return $31,300 = ROI 42.5%
These numbers look way to good to be true so it is possible 2003 was a very “lucky” year for the systems. In order to find out, we went back 4 more years through 1999 and crunched the same Insider Power™ Systems in the tighter version. What did we find? Much of the very same success.
1999 50-20 71.4%
2000 48-23 67.6%
2001 59-15 79.7%
2002 61-20 75.3%
Only in 2000 did we receive a ROI under 30% while the total ROI for the 5-year span was a generous 40.9%!
1999 Investment $77,000 – Return $28,000 = ROI 36.4%
2000 Investment $78,100 – Return $22,700 = ROI 29.1%
2001 Investment $81,400 – Return $42,500 = ROI 52.2%
2002 Investment $89,100 – Return $39,000 = ROI 43.8%
5-year Investment $399,300 – Return $163,500 = ROI 40.9%
We are ecstatic at these findings and the best thing about it is that there are no judgment calls on the games – they either qualify or they don’t. The ones that do qualify will receive many more lookovers based on our other handicapping techniques such as injuries, weather and statistics. The remaining systems come into play when deciding on unit values.
Hopefully we have your attention now. Our Preseason Football Package gets all of these winners through the Super Bowl, which also includes the NFL Preseason, the NCAA Football Season, the remaining MLB Season and the start of the NBA and NCAA Hoops Seasons. All for only $299. Come and join our big group of members that will reap the benefits of these sensational NFL Insider Power™ Systems!!
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles 8:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (2 Units)
This is the week where the starters see the most playing time of the entire preseason but it will be interesting to see if that will be the case for the Eagles. They are killed right now by injuries and taking too many chances with their first team might not be the call here. As the Eagles approach their third preseason game, they are already down three offensive players for the season - running backs Correll Buckhalter and Bruce Perry, and offensive lineman Jamaal Jackson. Another dozen players are sidelined with injuries and unable to practice. Things are not good for the defense, where the Eagles have also lost defensive end N.D. Kalu for the season to a torn ACL. Adding to Philly’s woes for Thursday’s game, six defenders (including free safety Brian Dawkins) are definitely out, DT Corey Simon is doubtful with a lingering foot injury, and another seven are listed as questionable. Even with Nate Wayne back, the Eagles will be very thin at linebacker against the Steelers, with only six in uniform.
With their thin defense, the Eagles should have trouble with the Steelers strength so far in the preseason – running the ball. The Steelers have 378 yards rushing in two preseason games. Head coach Bill Cowher and coordinator Ken Whisenhunt have put more emphasis on their ground game after it slid to a No. 31 ranking in the NFL last season, their lowest ever. They will continue to do that on Thursday as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 4.7 ypc through their first two games, third in the league, while the Eagles are allowing 4.9 ypc, second worst in the league. Even though a knee injury has ended the season of right guard Kendall Simmons, the offensive line has blocked effectively. Keydrick Vincent, about to enter his first season as a starter, will do fine as Simmons' replacement. Tommy Maddox has been nearly flawless in camp and in games. He led Pittsburgh to touchdowns on two of three drives against Houston Saturday night
Offensively, Philadelphia has not shown much. Besides an 81-yard pass play on the first play from scrimmage, the Eagles mustered only 201 yards of offense in their last game against the Ravens. They gained just 217 yards in their opener against New England. The loss of Buckhalter is huge for the Eagles, who signed veteran Dorsey Levens this week to fill the void. Pittsburgh has not played the greatest of offenses yet but they are allowing opponents just 235 ypg. They are giving up 2.9 ypc on the ground and if not for a 28-yard run by the Texans, that number drops to 2.4 ypc.
The first units for Pittsburgh will stay in at least through the first half. "I feel like a full half at this point is important," Cowher said. "I want them to get [used] to playing. At the same time, I'm not so much worried about injuries, but we need to evaluate some of the other guys." Duce Staley will return to Philadelphia for the first time since signing with Pittsburgh in the offseason. The Eagles are notoriously a bad team when laying chalk, going 12-20 ATS including 2-6 ATS as a favorite their last 8. They are also 2-6 ATS as a favorite against .500 teams or better.
Grab our One Day Pass for $14.95 and get all of today’s baseball action – 4 plays in total. Guaranteed to profit or you get a full refund plus a week of service absolutely FREE! First game today is at 1:10 PM ET
*** Click Here For Thursday’s One Day Pass - $14.95 ***
The college football season starts in 2 days with the BCA Classic between Virginia Tech and USC. We have your winner all set to go in that matchup along with our world-renowned game analysis. Get this game along with every other winner we release through the 2005 Super Bowl for only $299. This Special offer ends after kickoff of the Virginia Tech/USC so act now. You also receive all baseball selections through the World Series and the remainder of the NFL Preseason.
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
What is included besides winning NFL and NCAA Seasons?
Members get access to our highly sought after “Inside The Boxscores” College Football Weekly Recap. Looking inside the boxes of every game every weekend is the first step in capping the following weekend slate of games – we do that for you. No other service provides this information to you on a weekly basis:
Inside The Boxscores - NCAA Week 10
Detailed Game Writeups with every football play we release. We don’t throw darts like most and we prove why.
If you haven’t checked out our preseason articles, here they are for you now:
The Significance of the Running Game - 2004 Update
10 Most Significant Spring Injuries Heading Into 2004
2004 NCAA Football Coaching Changes
2004 NCAA Football Transfers Who Will Make an Early Impact
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Rise
2004 NCAA Football Teams on the Decline
Looking at the NFL upcoming season, we have uncovered some incredible systems that will go into our handicapping. A couple examples:
Since 1995, NFL home underdogs getting 7.5 points or more who have a winning percentage of 10% or below and are off a loss are 23-1-1 ATS!
Since 2000, Tampa Bay is 0-16 ATS as a home favorite when they are coming off a win and their opponent allowed between 13 and 25 points in their previous game!
And there are 162 others that are just as strong.
Taking our NFL Insider Power™ Systems, we concluded that combining 5 of our top systems gave us a 2003 winning percentage of 66.4%. The record ended 71-36 and while that is outstanding, it is a lot of games to be playing on a weekly basis. An average of 6.3 games per week to be exact. Playing too many games can be the death of a gambler so we decided to tighten the systems by using a minimum z-rating which in turn would give us less plays overall but would in turn be much stronger.
The results once again are remarkable. Tightening our 5 strongest systems gives us an even better 71.4% winning percentage while playing much less games (67 – less than 4 per week). Decreasing the games lessens the risk but our ROI actually increases by over 16%. The difference in profit ended up being only $100 based on $1100 bets. There were just 3 losing weeks out of 17 total weeks in the regular season.
Regular Systems Run – 71W-36L 66.4%
Investment $117,700 – Return $31,400 = ROI 26.7%
Tightened Systems Run – 50W-17L 74.6%
Investment $73,700 – Return $31,300 = ROI 42.5%
These numbers look way to good to be true so it is possible 2003 was a very “lucky” year for the systems. In order to find out, we went back 4 more years through 1999 and crunched the same Insider Power™ Systems in the tighter version. What did we find? Much of the very same success.
1999 50-20 71.4%
2000 48-23 67.6%
2001 59-15 79.7%
2002 61-20 75.3%
Only in 2000 did we receive a ROI under 30% while the total ROI for the 5-year span was a generous 40.9%!
1999 Investment $77,000 – Return $28,000 = ROI 36.4%
2000 Investment $78,100 – Return $22,700 = ROI 29.1%
2001 Investment $81,400 – Return $42,500 = ROI 52.2%
2002 Investment $89,100 – Return $39,000 = ROI 43.8%
5-year Investment $399,300 – Return $163,500 = ROI 40.9%
We are ecstatic at these findings and the best thing about it is that there are no judgment calls on the games – they either qualify or they don’t. The ones that do qualify will receive many more lookovers based on our other handicapping techniques such as injuries, weather and statistics. The remaining systems come into play when deciding on unit values.
Hopefully we have your attention now. Our Preseason Football Package gets all of these winners through the Super Bowl, which also includes the NFL Preseason, the NCAA Football Season, the remaining MLB Season and the start of the NBA and NCAA Hoops Seasons. All for only $299. Come and join our big group of members that will reap the benefits of these sensational NFL Insider Power™ Systems!!
***Click Here For Our Preseason Football Special - $299.00***
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