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Tampa Bay at Jacksonville NFL Preseason

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  • Tampa Bay at Jacksonville NFL Preseason

    Insider Edge Sports – Report For Friday, August 20, 2004

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars 7:30 PM ET

    Jacksonville Jaguars –3 –105 (2 Units)

    After playing a rescheduled game on Monday, Tampa Bay has had little time to recover and plan for this game. Originally, the Bucs would have had five days to prepare for the Jags but Hurricane Charley caused the team to scramble its original plan. On top of it, don’t expect to see a lot of the first team. Brad Johnson will start Friday's game at Jacksonville, but he and veterans such as Joey Galloway, Tim Brown and Mike Alstott will make only cameo appearances. "We might look at them a little bit more, but not a lot more," Bucs head coach Gruden said. "That could be said for Brad Johnson and Alstott. Some of our older guys won't play very much in the preseason. We still think we need to get some valuable playing experience for some of these younger players and that's going to be the objective again.” To make the battle for the No. 2 quarterback spot even, Brian Griese will relieve Johnson in the first quarter against the Jaguars. Chris Simms will finish the game, which is unfortunate for Tampa Bay since he played the best against the Bengals. The Bucs will play their starters two series at the most

    The run defense was good for the Bengals on Monday but Tampa Bay's quarterbacks combined to complete 22 of 29 pass attempts for 255 yards. Their combined passer rating was 101.9. Jacksonville needs to do better than that. Tampa can expect a much tougher test against the Jaguars, who finished 15th in the league last season in pass defense. The Bucs are particularly banged up on the offensive line, where they made do on Wednesday, their only full practice of the week, without Derrick Deese, Jason Whittle, Cosey Coleman, Matt O’Dwyer and, for some of the periods, Matt Stinchcomb. Protection might be an issue tonight.

    The Jags did not fare well offensively against the Dolphins in their opener but they should do better here with the first team playing for about a half. Head coach Jack Del Rio demanded more focus from the offense during this past week. He's gotten just that the last two practices as the offense has started to make some things happen on the football field. Del Rio said starting QB Byron Leftwich will start tonight and probably will play into the second quarter.

    We also have 5 winners in MLB action on Friday. First game goes at 7:05 PM ET.

    *** Click Here For Friday’s One Day Pass - $14.95 ***

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    Taking our NFL Insider Power™ Systems, we concluded that combining 5 of our top systems gave us a 2003 winning percentage of 66.4%. The record ended 71-36 and while that is outstanding, it is a lot of games to be playing on a weekly basis. An average of 6.3 games per week to be exact. Playing too many games can be the death of a gambler so we decided to tighten the systems by using a minimum z-rating which in turn would give us less plays overall but would in turn be much stronger.

    The results once again are remarkable. Tightening our 5 strongest systems gives us an even better 71.4% winning percentage while playing much less games (67 – less than 4 per week). Decreasing the games lessens the risk but our ROI actually increases by over 16%. The difference in profit ended up being only $100 based on $1100 bets. There were just 3 losing weeks out of 17 total weeks in the regular season.

    Regular Systems Run – 71W-36L 66.4%

    Investment $117,700 – Return $31,400 = ROI 26.7%

    Tightened Systems Run – 50W-17L 74.6%

    Investment $73,700 – Return $31,300 = ROI 42.5%

    These numbers look way to good to be true so it is possible 2003 was a very “lucky” year for the systems. In order to find out, we went back 4 more years through 1999 and crunched the same Insider Power™ Systems in the tighter version. What did we find? Much of the very same success.

    1999 50-20 71.4%
    2000 48-23 67.6%
    2001 59-15 79.7%
    2002 61-20 75.3%


    Only in 2000 did we receive a ROI under 30% while the total ROI for the 5-year span was a generous 40.9%!

    1999 Investment $77,000 – Return $28,000 = ROI 36.4%
    2000 Investment $78,100 – Return $22,700 = ROI 29.1%
    2001 Investment $81,400 – Return $42,500 = ROI 52.2%
    2002 Investment $89,100 – Return $39,000 = ROI 43.8%

    5-year Investment $399,300 – Return $163,500 = ROI 40.9%


    We are ecstatic at these findings and the best thing about it is that there are no judgment calls on the games – they either qualify or they don’t. The ones that do qualify will receive many more lookovers based on our other handicapping techniques such as injuries, weather and statistics. The remaining systems come into play when deciding on unit values.

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    Check our website or the promotion forum for current specials
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