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Tom Coughlin is one of the most successful Pre-Season coaches. with the Jaguars he dominated opponents in the pre-season like Denny Green used to do in his early days. But Green let up after a few years. Coughlin always believed in winning pre-season games.
Carolina Head Coach John Fox went 4-0 last year. Last week he bucked an 11-year trend of SB losers who were 1-10 SU/ATS in their pre-season openers.
My initial lean here is the Giants. Manning could have problems as the starter going against the Panther front four, but Warner should have a cake walk against 2nd stringers.
My lean is the Giants, but I'm not crazy about it. Panthers return home in their first game since the Superbowl and Fox apparently cares about winning his pre-season games also. It's a pass for me.
I am currently in the process of applying the Blowout Formula to the 2002 NFL Season. I'll post the results when I'm done. Here's a breakdown and critical analysis of what the Formula did in 2003...
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
The NFL Blowout Formula had 34 plays last Season. Ten of them (above) were decided by 20 or more points, or about 29.4% of the 34 plays.
In the NFL last season there were 256 Regular Season games played. Fifty-Seven of those were decided by 20 or more points, or about 22.3%.
Of the 222 games that were not Blowout Formula Games, 47 of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 21.2%.
That means that the NFL Blowout Formula Games beat out the other games by 8.2 percentage points. In real time, that means the Blowout Formula picked blowout games a whopping 38.7% more often.
That's nearly 40% more often and VERY significant. If it merely picked more blowouts 10-15% of the time, that could be considered variation. That tells me that the formula works.
Even more significant is the fact that nine out of 10 of the blowout games scored 30>; nine out of 10 also allowed 14 or less. Now, I did not sub-divide all the games played last year; but I can tell you that many of the 20-point wins came on the strength of a huge offensive explosion like the Colts 55-20 over the Saints.
Or many of them came due to a defensive shut out win like 21-0 or something like that. Now don't get me wrong, a 20-point win is a 20-point win. But if you were to compare apples to apples, the results would be even more staggering.
What I am saying is that the Blowout Formula games are complete domination--not just a 20-point win on one side of the ball or the other. Here's a listing of those 20-point games...
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
That is domination. These teams outyarded their opponents by an average of 201 yards per game: 432-231. The turnovers went in their favor 29-9. I'm sold on my latest formula. It is BY FAR the best I have developed in my 24-year career. Nearly 30% of its games are bonafide BLOWOUTS. Contrast that with the otherwise league average of 21%. Here's somemore analysis...
First I'll list the plays, then I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.
You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty sizeable blowouts, while the 6> point dogs win outright.
The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results. "CB" means "Cover By". The games with asteriks*** are of the highest criteria met.
NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:
WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0
BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 412-462 5-0 CB 5
WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2
TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0 CB 10***
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4 CB -1
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1 CB -6
WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2
BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1 CB 2
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2 CB 4
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1 CB 6
WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3
BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0 CB 32***
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3 CB -10
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1 CB 1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3 CB 21***
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0 CB 11***
WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3
COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1 CB 1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1 CB 0
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2 CB 2
WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5
LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1 CB 15
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2 CB -7
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1 CB 21
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1 CB 1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1 CB -20
WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5
VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0 CB 26
WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5
COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2 CB 24***
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1 CB 7
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0 CB 6
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2 CB 3
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0 CB 14
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1 CB 31
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0 CB 14***
WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5
STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0 CB 10***
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3 CB 3
WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5
PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1 CB 19***
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1 CB 4
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1 CB 14
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2 CB 21***
Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them.
Sometimes our team outyarded their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they didn't do either one or both of those, they showed up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they made it happen. Even in the minority of the games when our team was outyarded, they coverd nearly 80% of the time.
Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot was an 11-point dog. They outyarded the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to a 30-20 SU Winner!
The rule of the day with the Blowout Formula is this: These teams OUTYARD their opponents, WIN the Turnover battles, and/or DOMINATE the Red Zone--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about : Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.
A look at the games with asteriks*** (highest criteria met) reveal the following:
*Our Teams were 9-0 Straight Up and Against the Spread (Faves 6-0 SU & ATS: Dogs 3-0 SU & ATS)
*Our Teams Averaged WINNING by 20.6 Points Per Game (Faves by 27.2 ppg; Dogs by 7.3 ppg)
*Our Teams Averaged COVERING THE SPREAD by 18.0 Points Per Game (Faves by 19.5 ppg; Dogs by 15.0 ppg)
*ALL Nine Plays COVERED by DOUBLE-DIGITS
*TURNOVERS went in our Team's favor 25-8, an average of about 3-1 per game in our favor.
*Our Teams OUTYARDED opponents by Average of 371-248 (Faves 411-226; Dogs 291-293)
If you're interested in receiving my NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Games this Season, feel free to visit the site or contact me for more info. They will be included Exclusively in this year's Spread Report Online--an Online Football tipsheet now in its 4th year.
This year's Spread Report Online will include:
*My NFL Preview with all my Futures plays including Team Wins OVER/UNDERS (7-0 last year), Division Winners, Conference Champions, and Superbowl Futures.
*My College and Pro Football Top Plays with Analysis
*Commentary on ALL NFL matchups
*Exclusive NFL Real Number Line (a favorite; a solid 62-65% ATS 1st-half, year in and year out)
*Exclusive NFL Yardage Formula Games (over 63% ATS last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Formula Games (over 60% ATS last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Super System Games (38-18 ATS last 2 years)
*Proposition plays, Exotics, Team Totals, etc.
*My MILLION $$$ Games (Top Plays in other Sports) during the entire Football Season
*My Latest and Newest NFL Blowout Formula Games (28-5-1 ATS last year)
*PLUS...A Special GUARANTEE: My College and Pro Football Top Plays will have a Winning Season or you will receive my MILLION $$$ Games (top plays in other sports) for Six Full Months during the off-season.
*AND...A Special BONUS: At the end of the Football Season, subscribers will receive my NFL Yardage Formula--the Formula itself--that has hit over 63% over the last 3 Seasons.
It's all *EXCLUSIVE* information that cannot be found anywhere else. And at 7 bucks an Issue, well, it's a Winner!
Order by August 31st and receive a 25% Early Bird Discount, reducing the price to only $5.41 per Issue.
For More Info, feel Free to contact me...
David K Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990
Carolina Head Coach John Fox went 4-0 last year. Last week he bucked an 11-year trend of SB losers who were 1-10 SU/ATS in their pre-season openers.
My initial lean here is the Giants. Manning could have problems as the starter going against the Panther front four, but Warner should have a cake walk against 2nd stringers.
My lean is the Giants, but I'm not crazy about it. Panthers return home in their first game since the Superbowl and Fox apparently cares about winning his pre-season games also. It's a pass for me.
I am currently in the process of applying the Blowout Formula to the 2002 NFL Season. I'll post the results when I'm done. Here's a breakdown and critical analysis of what the Formula did in 2003...
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
The NFL Blowout Formula had 34 plays last Season. Ten of them (above) were decided by 20 or more points, or about 29.4% of the 34 plays.
In the NFL last season there were 256 Regular Season games played. Fifty-Seven of those were decided by 20 or more points, or about 22.3%.
Of the 222 games that were not Blowout Formula Games, 47 of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 21.2%.
That means that the NFL Blowout Formula Games beat out the other games by 8.2 percentage points. In real time, that means the Blowout Formula picked blowout games a whopping 38.7% more often.
That's nearly 40% more often and VERY significant. If it merely picked more blowouts 10-15% of the time, that could be considered variation. That tells me that the formula works.
Even more significant is the fact that nine out of 10 of the blowout games scored 30>; nine out of 10 also allowed 14 or less. Now, I did not sub-divide all the games played last year; but I can tell you that many of the 20-point wins came on the strength of a huge offensive explosion like the Colts 55-20 over the Saints.
Or many of them came due to a defensive shut out win like 21-0 or something like that. Now don't get me wrong, a 20-point win is a 20-point win. But if you were to compare apples to apples, the results would be even more staggering.
What I am saying is that the Blowout Formula games are complete domination--not just a 20-point win on one side of the ball or the other. Here's a listing of those 20-point games...
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
That is domination. These teams outyarded their opponents by an average of 201 yards per game: 432-231. The turnovers went in their favor 29-9. I'm sold on my latest formula. It is BY FAR the best I have developed in my 24-year career. Nearly 30% of its games are bonafide BLOWOUTS. Contrast that with the otherwise league average of 21%. Here's somemore analysis...
First I'll list the plays, then I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.
You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty sizeable blowouts, while the 6> point dogs win outright.
The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results. "CB" means "Cover By". The games with asteriks*** are of the highest criteria met.
NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:
WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0
BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 412-462 5-0 CB 5
WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2
TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0 CB 10***
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4 CB -1
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1 CB -6
WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2
BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1 CB 2
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2 CB 4
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1 CB 6
WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3
BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0 CB 32***
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3 CB -10
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1 CB 1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3 CB 21***
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0 CB 11***
WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3
COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1 CB 1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1 CB 0
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2 CB 2
WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5
LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1 CB 15
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2 CB -7
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1 CB 21
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1 CB 1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1 CB -20
WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5
VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0 CB 26
WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5
COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2 CB 24***
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1 CB 7
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0 CB 6
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2 CB 3
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0 CB 14
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1 CB 31
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0 CB 14***
WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5
STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0 CB 10***
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3 CB 3
WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5
PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1 CB 19***
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1 CB 4
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1 CB 14
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2 CB 21***
Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them.
Sometimes our team outyarded their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they didn't do either one or both of those, they showed up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they made it happen. Even in the minority of the games when our team was outyarded, they coverd nearly 80% of the time.
Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot was an 11-point dog. They outyarded the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to a 30-20 SU Winner!
The rule of the day with the Blowout Formula is this: These teams OUTYARD their opponents, WIN the Turnover battles, and/or DOMINATE the Red Zone--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about : Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.
A look at the games with asteriks*** (highest criteria met) reveal the following:
*Our Teams were 9-0 Straight Up and Against the Spread (Faves 6-0 SU & ATS: Dogs 3-0 SU & ATS)
*Our Teams Averaged WINNING by 20.6 Points Per Game (Faves by 27.2 ppg; Dogs by 7.3 ppg)
*Our Teams Averaged COVERING THE SPREAD by 18.0 Points Per Game (Faves by 19.5 ppg; Dogs by 15.0 ppg)
*ALL Nine Plays COVERED by DOUBLE-DIGITS
*TURNOVERS went in our Team's favor 25-8, an average of about 3-1 per game in our favor.
*Our Teams OUTYARDED opponents by Average of 371-248 (Faves 411-226; Dogs 291-293)
If you're interested in receiving my NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Games this Season, feel free to visit the site or contact me for more info. They will be included Exclusively in this year's Spread Report Online--an Online Football tipsheet now in its 4th year.
This year's Spread Report Online will include:
*My NFL Preview with all my Futures plays including Team Wins OVER/UNDERS (7-0 last year), Division Winners, Conference Champions, and Superbowl Futures.
*My College and Pro Football Top Plays with Analysis
*Commentary on ALL NFL matchups
*Exclusive NFL Real Number Line (a favorite; a solid 62-65% ATS 1st-half, year in and year out)
*Exclusive NFL Yardage Formula Games (over 63% ATS last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Formula Games (over 60% ATS last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Super System Games (38-18 ATS last 2 years)
*Proposition plays, Exotics, Team Totals, etc.
*My MILLION $$$ Games (Top Plays in other Sports) during the entire Football Season
*My Latest and Newest NFL Blowout Formula Games (28-5-1 ATS last year)
*PLUS...A Special GUARANTEE: My College and Pro Football Top Plays will have a Winning Season or you will receive my MILLION $$$ Games (top plays in other sports) for Six Full Months during the off-season.
*AND...A Special BONUS: At the end of the Football Season, subscribers will receive my NFL Yardage Formula--the Formula itself--that has hit over 63% over the last 3 Seasons.
It's all *EXCLUSIVE* information that cannot be found anywhere else. And at 7 bucks an Issue, well, it's a Winner!
Order by August 31st and receive a 25% Early Bird Discount, reducing the price to only $5.41 per Issue.
For More Info, feel Free to contact me...
David K Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990
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