Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Seahawks @ PACKERS

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Seahawks @ PACKERS

    Seahawks @ PACKERS


    Seattle under Holmgren (5 years)

    Games: 20
    SU: 8-12
    ATS: 7-11-2

    SU Road: 1-9
    ATS Road: 2-7-1

    Opener: 1-4 SU: 1-3-1 ATS
    Road Opener: 1-4 SU; 1-3-1 ATS


    Packers under Sherman (4 years)

    Games: 17
    SU: 9-8
    ATS: 8-8-1

    SU Home: 6-2
    ATS Home: 5-3

    Opener: 1-3 SU: 1-3 ATS
    Home Opener: 3-1 SU; 3-1 ATS


    Notes:

    Holmgren plays his former team which is usually a good go with; but it is more effective in regulars season and more effective in a coaches first time playing them or first couple of times. Five years has past since he coached the Packers and the game is pre-season, so little weight would be put to the former coach theory.

    Seattle was knocked out of the Playoffs last year by the Packers. There may some some revenge incentive their, but in pre-season I wouldn't expect as much; especially in the opener when starters will see little action. If anything, the fact that the Packers knocked them out of the playoffs last year could very well inspire Holmgren to remind his team NOT to tear a ligament in seeking payback in a meaningless game.

    Dating back to '93 the Packers are an additional 15-5 SU at home/milwaukee in Pre-Season for an 11-year total of 21-7 SU.


    Hard to go against the Packers at home even in Pre-Season. Sherman was 2-0 SU at home in each of his first 3 seasons with the Pack; undefeated until last year when he went 0-2 at home in weeks 3 and 4 against the Panthers (5-0) and the Titans (4-0). Both teams handed Green Bay pretty decisive losses. I like Green Bay to win the game. But in case Holmgren gets frisky with his old team, I prefer a tease at +3.


    Bengals @ BUCCANEERS

    I'm really baffled by what's going on in Cincy. After a breakout season for the Bungles and a breakout season for Kitna, Kitna is benched for a rookie and Dillon is gone. I question what that will do to the fragile psyche of the Bengal team. It may show up on the field right out of the gate. Marvin Lewis was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last year in Pre-Season, losing his opener both SU and ATS. He was 0-2 SU on the road.

    With Six years of numbers to work with, we'll look at Gruden:

    SU Bucs: 7-2
    SU Raiders: 11-6
    SU Both: 18-8

    ATS Bucs: 5-5
    ATS Raiders: 9-8
    ATS Both: 14-13

    SU Home Bucs: 3-1
    SU Home Oak: 5-3 (5-1 last six)
    SU Home Both: 8-4 (8-2 last ten)

    ATS Home Bucs: 1-3
    ATS Home Oak: 5-3 (5-1 last six)
    ATS Home Both: 6-6 (6-4 last ten)

    Open Bucs: 2-0 SU; 1-1 ATS
    Open Oak: 3-1 SU; 3-1 ATS
    Open Both: 5-1 SU: 4-2 ATS


    After Winning the Superbowl the Bucs had a very disappointing season last year. On top of that, they lost (arguably) some key players in Sapp, Lynch, and Keyshawn. Gruden is already a pre-season coach who believes in maintaining that winning attitude. Factor in those two 'setbacks' and I figure it will be doubly important for the Bucs to be on the winning side of this so-called meaningless contest in order to forget the dismal season, forget the lost players, and look ahead by setting a tone for the upcoming season. Add to that a Bengals team that I figure to be confused at best, and the game smells like a blowout to me--even with third stringers--as the Gruden intensity should spill over till the final bell rings. Nevertheless, we don't like laying points week one of pre-season, but I do like them to win the game.

    *2-TEAM TEASE: PACKERS (+3) and BUCS (+3) -110


    Here's the latest regarding my annual Football Spread Report--now in its fourth year--and the opportunity to receive 1 full year of MILLION $$$ Games (a catchy name for best bets!).

    One of the most anticipated changes in this year's Spread Report is the addition of the NFL Blowout Formula which went 28-5-1 ATS last season.

    It had an unusual number of extreme blowouts. Here are some faq's regarding this year's Football Tipsheet...


    1.) What is it?

    The Spread Report Online (SRO) is an Online Football Tipsheet now in it's 4th Season.


    2.) How much does it cost?

    It's cost is $5.41 per Issue, and there are 22 Issues. There is one NFL Preview, 17 Regular Season Issues, and four Post Season Issues.


    3.) What does it include?

    The NFL Preview includes my annual futures plays. Team Wins OVER/UNDERS, Division Winners, Conference Winners, and the Superbowl Futures.

    The Regular Season Issues include:

    a.) My personal Top Plays in College and Pro Football complete with "why" they are my Top Plays

    b.) Commentary on ALL NFL games

    c.) My NFL REAL Number Line

    d.) My NFL Yardage Formula Games

    e.) My NFL Turnover Formula Games (and Turnover Super System Games)

    f.) My Newest and Latest NFL Blowout Formula Games

    g.) My occasional Proposition Plays, Exotics, Team Totals, etc

    h.) My MILLION $$$ Games (top plays in other sports) throughout the entire Football Season

    i.) A Special Guarantee*

    j.) A Special Bonus**


    4.) What is different about your Tipsheet?

    A couple things. One, many tipsheets require you to call them and pay more for their best games. The SRO includes the Best Games inside.

    Two, the SRO has some of my exclusive formula games that cannot be found anywhere else.

    And three, it contains my often unorthodox style of analysis that attempts to get inside the psyche of a team. I call it the human element; a human factor style of capping.


    5.) Why do you put out a sheet each year?

    To supplement my income during the Football Season. Though a 24-year veteran of sports handicapping, it is not my primary income. During the season, I cut back my hours to make time for what I LOVE to do...handicap football. From the developement of new formulas to researching the isms behind each team and coach, I delve into every area of the game.


    6.) How can I get more info?

    Feel free to emai me, drop by the site, or call me personally. Thank you...

    dave
    http://spreadreport.tripod.com
    [email protected]
    228-424-6990


    *My Football Top Plays will have a Winning Season or you will receive the entire off-season of my MILLION $$$ games
    **At the end of the Season, you will receive my NFL Yardage Formula

  • #2
    NFL Blowout Formula

    In the NFL last season there were 256 Regular Season games played. Fifty-Seven of those were decided by 20 or more points, or about 22.3%.

    The NFL Blowout Formula had 34 plays last Season. Ten of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 29.4%.

    Of the 222 games that were not Blowout Formula Games, 47 of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 21.2%.

    What does it mean? That means that the NFL Blowout Formula Games beat out the other games by 8.2 percentage points. In real time, that means the Blowout Formula picks blowout games a whopping 38.7% more often (8.2 divided by 21.2).

    That's nearly 40% more often and VERY significant. If it merely picked more blowouts 10-15% of the time, that could be considered variation. It tells me that the formula works.

    Even more significant is the fact that nine out of 10 of the blowout games scored 30>; nine out of 10 also allowed 14 or less. Now, I did not subdivide all the games played last year; but I can tell you that many of the 20-point wins came on the strength of a huge offensive explosion like the Colts 55-20 over the Saints.

    Or many of them came due to a defensive shut out win like 21-0 or something like that. Now don't get me wrong, a 20-point win is a 20-point win. But if you were to compare apples to apples, the results would be even more staggering.

    What I am saying is that the Blowout Formula blowouts are complete domination--not just a 20-point win on one side of the ball or the other. Here's a listing of those games...

    *BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6

    *BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8

    *SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14

    *BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3

    *VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7

    *COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7

    *CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17

    *SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7

    *PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3

    *TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13


    That is domination. These teams outyarded their opponents by an average of 201 yards per game: 432-231. The turnovers went in their favor 29-9. Wow. I'm sold on my latest formula. It is BY FAR the best I have developed in my 24-year career. Nearly 30% of its games are bonafide BLOWOUTS. Contrast that with the otherwise league average of 21%. Here's somemore analysis...

    It's a busy time of year for me, and it's that time of year when I'm very active in developement, promotion, and gearing up for the upcoming season. Chances are, as you're on my mailing list, you've read about my newest NFL Formula: The NFL Blowout Formula.

    In the midst of all the other stuff I have going on, I've taken the time to further look into this formula. First I'll list the plays, then I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.

    You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty mind-boggling blowout results, while the 6> point dogs win outright most of the time.

    The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results. "CB" means "Cover By". The games with asteriks*** are of the highest criteria met.


    NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:


    WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0

    BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 412-462 5-0 CB 5


    WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2

    TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0 CB 10***
    JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4 CB -1
    BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1 CB -6


    WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2

    BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1 CB 2
    REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2 CB 4
    STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1 CB 6


    WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3

    BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0 CB 32***
    BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3 CB -10
    COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1 CB 1
    BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3 CB 21***
    SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0 CB 11***


    WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3

    COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1 CB 1
    BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1 CB 0
    TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2 CB 2


    WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5

    LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1 CB 15
    COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2 CB -7
    BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1 CB 21
    TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1 CB 1
    GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1 CB -20


    WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5

    VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0 CB 26


    WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5

    COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2 CB 24***
    PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1 CB 7
    BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0 CB 6
    CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2 CB 3
    CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0 CB 14
    SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1 CB 31
    RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0 CB 14***


    WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5

    STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0 CB 10***
    TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3 CB 3


    WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5

    PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1 CB 19***
    FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1 CB 4
    TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1 CB 14
    LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2 CB 21***


    Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them. Hey that's pretty strong in the NFL. Let that sink in.

    Our team outyarded our opponent 19 times while being outyarded 15 times. In a bit of irony, even when our team was severly outyarded, somehow they managed a cover. That's a mystery to me.

    When teams lose the yardage battle and/or the turnover battle, they typically will lose ATS a high percentage of the time. Yet, when confronted with the Blowout Formula, something seems to click with these teams.

    Sometimes they outyarded their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they didn't do either one or both of those, they apparently showed up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they made it happen.

    To give you an idea, in the 15 games in which our team was outyarded, they were 11-3-1 ATS. That just doesn't stack up against the norms. Something is clicking with these teams when it matters the most if the Blowout Formula is in effect. That's 11-3-1 ATS even when outyarded. It says a lot about the backbone of the Formula.

    I've said it before and will say it again: I believe this to be the best developement of my 24-year handicapping career. Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot was an 11-point dog. They outyarded the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to...well...a ROUT--a 30-20 SU Winner!

    In contrast, consider the TEXANS play vs the Patriots. Although they had a slight advantage in the turnover department (3-2), they got steam-rolled by the Pats 472-169 in the Yardage category. How the heck did this team cover? Especially against a team that went on an [otherwise] 15-game ATS WIN streak--interupted by one ATS loser versus...the TEXANS??? These Blowout Formula teams seem to take it up a notch either in yardage, turnovers, and/or red zone play.

    Up to this point I've centered around the anamoly of how our teams are covering even when outyarded and/or having no significant advantage in the turnover department. But the reality is that this paradox is the exception and not the rule.

    The rule of the day is that these teams OUTYARD their opponents, WIN the Turnover battles, and/or DOMINATE the Red Zone more often than not--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about : Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.

    A look at the games with asteriks*** (highest criteria met) reveal the following:

    *9-0 Straight Up and Against the Spread (Faves 6-0 SU & ATS: Dogs 3-0 SU & ATS)

    *Teams Averaged WINNING by 20.6 Points Per Game (Faves by 27.2 ppg; Dogs by 7.3 ppg)

    *Teams Averaged COVERING THE SPREAD by 18.0 Points Per Game (Faves by 19.5 ppg; Dogs by 15.0 ppg)

    *ALL Nine Plays COVERED by DOUBLE-DIGITS

    *TURNOVERS went in Teams favor 25-8; or 2.8 - 0.9 per game

    *Teams OUTYARDED opponents by Average of 371-248 (Faves 411-226; Dogs 291-293)


    And finally, out of a total of 34 plays, only three would have lost on a 6-point teaser.

    If you're interested in receiving my NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Games this Season, feel free to visit the site or contact me for more info. They will be included in this year's Spread Report Online--an Online Football tipsheet now in its 4th year.

    Also included will be:

    *My College and Pro Football Top Plays with Analysis
    *Exclusive NFL Turnover Formula Games (over 60% last 3 years)
    *Exclusive NFL Yardage Formula Games (over 63% last 3 years)
    *Exclusive NFL Real Number Line (a favorite; a solid 62-65% 1st-half, year in and year out)
    *Exclusive NFL Turnover Super System Games (38-18 last 2 years)
    *Commentary on ALL NFL matchups

    And of course my occasional Proposition plays, Exotic plays, Team Totals, etc.

    And let's not forget my NFL Preview with all my Futures plays including Team Wins OVER/UNDERS (7-0 last year), Division Winners, Conference Champions, and Superbowl Futures. Last year I correctly projected a Carolina-New England Superbowl matchup--before the Season began--as documented in Issue #1 of the 2003 Spread Report Online.

    It's all EXCLUSIVE information that cannot be found anywhere else.

    Feel free to contact me for more info. Thank you...

    dave
    http://spreadreport.tripod.com
    [email protected]
    228-424-6990

    Comment


    • #3

      Comment


      • #4
        MADDEN 2005:

        Giants 19
        EAGLES 10

        Say huh? Wouldn't surprise me in the least...

        dave

        Comment


        • #5

          Comment


          • #6
            Falcons 29
            49ERS 19

            Comment


            • #7
              king of the bumps!

              GL tonight buddy!!! I love the madden simulations. I just bought it yesterday and will be doing the same thing.

              Comment

              Working...
              X