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**Warrior** · 08-15-2004, 03:01 PM

Sunday, August 15

*BRONCOS PK

dave

**Warrior** · 08-15-2004, 03:33 PM

Preliminary Week One Likes:

Ravens over Browns
Jets over Bengals
Broncos over Chiefs
Packers over Panthers

dave

**Warrior** · 08-16-2004, 07:53 AM

Seahawks @ PACKERS

Seattle under Holmgren (5 years)

Games: 20
SU: 8-12
ATS: 7-11-2

SU Road: 1-9
ATS Road: 2-7-1

Opener: 1-4 SU: 1-3-1 ATS
Road Opener: 1-4 SU; 1-3-1 ATS

Packers under Sherman (4 years)

Games: 17
SU: 9-8
ATS: 8-8-1

SU Home: 6-2
ATS Home: 5-3

Opener: 1-3 SU: 1-3 ATS
Home Opener: 3-1 SU; 3-1 ATS

Notes:

Holmgren plays his former team which is usually a good go with; but it is more effective in regulars season and more effective in a coaches first time playing them or first couple of times. Five years has past since he coached the Packers and the game is pre-season, so little weight would be put to the former coach theory.

Seattle was knocked out of the Playoffs last year by the Packers. There may some some revenge incentive their, but in pre-season I wouldn't expect as much; especially in the opener when starters will see little action. If anything, the fact that the Packers knocked them out of the playoffs last year could very well inspire Holmgren to remind his team NOT to tear a ligament in seeking payback in a meaningless game.

Dating back to '93 the Packers are an additional 15-5 SU at home/milwaukee in Pre-Season for an 11-year total of 21-7 SU.

Hard to go against the Packers at home even in Pre-Season. Sherman was 2-0 SU at home in each of his first 3 seasons with the Pack; undefeated until last year when he went 0-2 at home in weeks 3 and 4 against the Panthers (5-0) and the Titans (4-0). Both teams handed Green Bay pretty decisive losses. I like Green Bay to win the game. But in case Holmgren gets frisky with his old team, I prefer a tease at +3.

Bengals @ BUCCANEERS

I'm really baffled by what's going on in Cincy. After a breakout season for the Bungles and a breakout season for Kitna, Kitna is benched for a rookie and Dillon is gone. I question what that will do to the fragile psyche of the Bengal team. It may show up on the field right out of the gate. Marvin Lewis was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last year in Pre-Season, losing his opener both SU and ATS. He was 0-2 SU on the road.

With Six years of numbers to work with, we'll look at Gruden:

SU Bucs: 7-2
SU Raiders: 11-6
SU Both: 18-8

ATS Bucs: 5-5
ATS Raiders: 9-8
ATS Both: 14-13

SU Home Bucs: 3-1
SU Home Oak: 5-3 (5-1 last six)
SU Home Both: 8-4 (8-2 last ten)

ATS Home Bucs: 1-3
ATS Home Oak: 5-3 (5-1 last six)
ATS Home Both: 6-6 (6-4 last ten)

Open Bucs: 2-0 SU; 1-1 ATS
Open Oak: 3-1 SU; 3-1 ATS
Open Both: 5-1 SU: 4-2 ATS

After Winning the Superbowl the Bucs had a very disappointing season last year. On top of that, they lost (arguably) some key players in Sapp, Lynch, and Keyshawn. Gruden is already a pre-season coach who believes in maintaining that winning attitude. Factor in those two 'setbacks' and I figure it will be doubly important for the Bucs to be on the winning side of this so-called meaningless contest in order to forget the dismal season, forget the lost players, and look ahead by setting a tone for the upcoming season. Add to that a Bengals team that I figure to be confused at best, and the game smells like a blowout to me--even with third stringers--as the Gruden intensity should spill over till the final bell rings. Nevertheless, we don't like laying points week one of pre-season, but I do like them to win the game.

*2-TEAM TEASE: PACKERS (+3) and BUCS (+3) -110

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**Warrior** · 08-16-2004, 08:25 PM