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  • Did you miss it? AGAIN?

    We trust you enjoyed Thursday’s FREE NFL Preseason play, as the Baltimore Ravens shut down and shut out the Atlanta Falcons, 24-0, easily keeping the final UNDER the total of 34 points. Once again, our information, analysis, and advice was on the money. Our clients enjoyed a very profitable evening as they also received 7 STAR & 6 STAR SELECTIONS in addition to the OPINION SELECTION winner. Both of our top-rated plays cashed as Chicago beat the Rams SU in a low-scoring game, exactly as predicted in the write-up sent to PRO INFO SPORTS clients that we include below.

    This means that PRO INFO SPORTS is already 4-0 and the #1-ranked sports service at TWO sports service monitors in the early going of preseason play. You missed our top plays but the good news is that there is plenty of time to join our winning team and start increasing your bankroll starting today. We have FIVE MONEY PLAYS for FRIDAY, all of them STAR SELECTIONS.

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    Here’s the superior information, analysis, and advice provided to our clients on Thursday:

    7 STAR SELECTION (5% of Bankroll)

    Chicago +4½ over ST LOUIS


    6 STAR SELECTION (4.75% of Bankroll)

    Chicago vs. ST. LOUIS UNDER 37

    Former St. Louis assistant Lovie Smith returns to his former football home Thursday night, as the Chicago Bears new head coach takes his team to the Edward Jones Dome to face the Rams. Smith was the defensive coordinator under Mike Martz for the past 3 years, helping guide the franchise to a pair of NFC West titles in addition to a spot in Super Bowl XXXVI.

    Chicago backfield mates QB Rex Grossman and RB Thomas Jones will work together for the first time. Grossman and Jones are listed as 1st-stringers and are expected to play the first quarter. The Bears are a bit dinged up as top linebacker Brian Urlacher will miss all of the preseason with a bad hamstring.

    The Rams' mission is likely to just survive their first preseason game with no additional significant injuries. Martz's club has already lost tackle Kyle Turley and defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy in training camp, and All-Pro tackle Orlando Pace will not be in uniform due to a contract holdout. The team is expected to hold out running back Marshall Faulk as a precautionary measure. Starting QB Mark Bulger will probably hand off to backup Arlen Harris and rookie Steven Jackson. Backup QBs Chris Chandler and Jeff Smoker figure to see a bulk of the time under center.

    The first and main factor to handicapping the preseason is the coach of each team. The coaching factor in preseason, unlike the regular season, is the strongest single factor. Some coaches do not care if they lose a preseason game, while some coaches hate to lose any game at all – even exhibition games. New coaches like to win in the preseason. Those getting their first crack at being captain of the ship are naturally anxious to get that first “W” under their belt to prove to themselves, the team owner, and the rest of the league they can win. There could be no more fitting site for the first game of Lovie Smith's NFL head coaching career - in St. Louis against the team for whom Smith was defensive coordinator the last three years. Even though it won't count in the regular season standings, it's a milestone to which Smith has aspired to his entire life. "Forty-six years to this spot, to say this is just another game for me personally, no, that's not the case," he said. Smith, of course, is very familiar with the Rams, and isn’t about to let them roll over his new team here. Not even in an exhibition game.

    Most teams play vanilla defenses during the preseason, but some will resort to blitzing, and that usually gives a team an advantage. Teams who blitz a lot during preseason often do well because their opponents aren’t ready for it with backup linemen. It’s almost an unwritten rule among the NFL coaching fraternity not to blitz much during preseason. But some clubs need to practice it under game conditions. Usually the coach won’t want to try it on an opponent he’s going to play during the regular season, however, because it can give that opponent extra motivation. Of the seven new coaches in the NFL this season, Lovie Smith is probably making the most radical changes, remaking the Bears body and soul. They are going from a read-and-react system under Dick Jauron to the attacking style of the Cover 2 defense. On offense they are changing from the Chinese torture drill of the short passes of last season to the down-the-field aggressive offense used by the Rams, Chiefs and others. There will be no better time to get his team a baptism under fire than against “The Greatest Show on Turf”.

    The Bears' quarterback rotation for Thursday's preseason opener will have Grossman playing the first quarter, with Jonathan Quinn the second quarter and the first series of the third. After that, Craig Krenzel will play. The Bears also plan to play some of the starting offensive linemen into the second quarter to give Quinn more help. This will be big advantage against a Rams defensive line that is already thin. For the Rams, Marc Bulger also is expected to get limited playing time ahead of Chris Chandler and rookie sixth-round pick Jeff Smoker; however, the vaunted St. Louis offense is likely to struggle. They will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line and without their top 2 RBs from last season. This is a recipe for disaster and injury should they try to run their regular offense, which we don’t expect to see.

    During exhibition season it’s common for a team with an excellent passing attack to practice their running attack. Likewise, last year’s excellent running teams are likely to be doing a lot of passing. Where is the logic in a coach going over and over his team’s strongest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses? We have such a case here, as we expect the Rams to work on their running game during this exhibition season. The idea for St. Louis is that if they can run the ball better, defenses won't keep an extra safety in deep coverage. Despite making a playoff run with Bulger last season, the running offense grounded to a halt. Part of that was the health of Faulk, who fought through another year of knee troubles. Part of that was strategy. What Martz wants to stress is more production from the running offense, which averaged only 3.6 yards a carry. "There are a lot of logical reasons to do it, but the mindset part of it is the most important. We will try to get that going, as we did in 1999 (the Rams ranked fifth in rushing that year). It's easy for us to throw the ball in some sense. We have guys who have a pretty good concept of what we do. We can always go back into that quickly."

    This all adds up to a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses and contest in which the motivation is with the Bears due to the situation with Lovie Smith. Even before Smith, Chicago has been a solid 9-5 ATS as an underdog of 3½-7 points, while the Rams are just 3-7 ATS in the reverse role, creating a nice trend dichotomy. We have several Preseason Systems active here as well. Week 1 road underdogs have gone 45-19 ATS since 1997 when neither team has a preseason win. All underdogs of more than 4 points have done even better, going 35-19 ATS. Our research also indicates that Week 1 home favorites that were in the playoffs the previous year are a poor 9-17 ATS when facing a visitor that didn’t qualify for postseason play the previous year, including 0-1 in 2003.

    The UNDER is also attractive here with Lovie Smith knowing the Rams so well, St. Louis operating at much less than full strength, working on their running game, a makeshift O-line, and rookie QBs playing most of the 2nd half for both teams. The Rams have gone 6-2 UNDER in early and Week 1 preseason games, and we note that Thursday home teams went 10-4 UNDER in the 2003 exhibition campaign. Look for this to be a close, low-scoring game throughout with a late FG to give Lovie Smith and his new team the SU road win.

    ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: CHICAGO 13 ST. LOUIS 10 (OT)



    OPINION SELECTION

    Atlanta vs. BALTIMORE UNDER 34

    Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons face the team that ruined their 2003 season Thursday night, as the electric QB, his club, and their new coach travel to play the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. In a preseason contest on August 16th of last year, Vick broke his right fibula after a hit from Baltimore linebacker Adalius Thomas. With Vick down for the season's first 11 games, the Falcons stumbled out of the blocks and finished 5-11. The Falcons are walking on eggshells with their franchise player this exhibition season, as Vick will only the opening series.

    The contest will also mark the head coaching debut of Atlanta's Jim Mora, Jr., who took over in the offseason following Dan Reeves' termination. Mora, formerly the defensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers, is the son of former Saints and Colts head coach Jim Mora. Jim Jr., will use a west-coast offensive approach while attempting to strengthen a defense that ranked dead last in the NFL with 381.8 yards yielded per game a year ago.

    Under center for the Ravens will be second-year pro Kyle Boller, who like Vick missed a significant portion of 2003 due to injury. Boller should also play sparingly, with backup Kordell Stewart taking a wealth of the snaps in a game that will mark his Ravens debut. Josh Harris, a sixth-round draft choice out of Bowling Green, should also see plenty of time in the second half.

    Under normal circumstances, we would give a non-playoff team with a new head coach a very strong look as a road underdog against a quality opponent off a playoff season; however, we don’t have normal circumstances here. Most new coaches come in looking to establish a winning attitude and will take some chances that veteran coaches wouldn’t to that end. Mora, though is more concerned with surviving the preseason healthy than winning, and Vick is on the same page. "We get this preseason game out the way, and we're halfway done with camp," Vick said.

    The Falcons simply are not a team looking to make any kind of statement against the Ravens, and don’t figure to do much offensively, especially against Brian Billick’s defense. The Falcons had trouble clicking with Vick watching from the sideline of a recent scrimmage with the Titans. Rookie Matt Schaub was 8-of-13 for 48 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions, but he missed connecting with Peerless Price twice early. "To say that we weren't totally in sync would be accurate," Falcons running back Warrick Dunn said. Schaub will replace Vick after one series and have to face an unfriendly Ravens “D” until the 4th quarter before Ty Detmer mops up. Such a rotation, with a rookie playing the bulk of the game, simply will not produce many offensive points. Baltimore won't slow down just for Vick. ``Anybody that's at the quarterback position, we're going to go after him. That's what they're paid to do,'' Billick said.

    Baltimore is in a bit better shape behind center with Boller playing the 1st quarter and Stewart the 2nd, before giving way to rookie QBs in the second half. The Ravens are a team that loves to run the football and play defense, which is what we look for here, again keeping the score down. While Atlanta won’t do much offensively, we look for an aggressive defensive gameplan from Mora as he brings his approach to the Falcons. He was a good DC in San Francisco and should help Atlanta improve their “D” dramatically, as they do their part to keep this game low-scoring.

    In looking at some preseason totals numbers, we note that Baltimore is 5-1 UNDER in non-conference games, and 10 of 14 Thursday games last year went UNDER. The weather may also do its part to keep the scoring restrained as rain will be threatening. Despite the low total we like the UNDER.

    ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 24 ATLANTA 0

    Is this the type of information, analysis, and advice you'd like to receive every gameday?

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