NFL Pre-Season Week 1

[Warrior]

Pre-Season Record: 0-0-1


Hope you guys cashed in on the Braves Yesterday. Will have a diamond pick up in a bit...


Thursday, August 12: Bears @ RAMS

Three things I like about this game. One, new Bears HC Lovie Smith plays his first game as an NFL head coach. I look for spots to go with new head coaches. Second, he's playing against his former team...another good bet. And third, the Rams have nothing, absolutely nothing to prove.

Thursday: BEARS +4


Friday, August 13: Chiefs @ GIANTS

If you remember Tom Coughlin from his Jacksonville days, you may remember what a Sargeant he is. Players are taken back by him early on, which always spelled intensity during his pre-season games. The only thing you gotta' know about this game is that Coughlin is the coach. He has an intense, win-now mentality and was infamous for strong pre-season games. The Chiefs have nothing to prove. A SB contender, they'll look to stay healthy. The Giants are -2.5 points. I prefer the moneyline if possible.

Friday: GIANTS Pk -145


Saturday, August 14: Cardinals @ VIKINGS

This game is a combination of the above two games. One, Dennis Green is a new coach with a new team looking to instill a winning attitude. Two, he plays his former team. And three, like Tom Coughlin, he is known for strong pre-season performances. In his latter years with the Vikings he was not as dominate in pre-season, having nothing to prove. Look for him to return to the pre-season mentality he had in his early days with the Vikings.

Saturday: CARDINALS +4


The August Early Bird Special ends at Midnight Eastern Time, August 15th, for my Spread Report Online Football Sheet. At only $5.41 per Issue, it is full of exclusive information that can only be found in the SRO, including my NFL Blowout Formula which went 28-5-1 ATS last year with an exceptional number of BLOWOUTS. Feel free to contact me for more info.

dave

[Warrior]

Thursday: MARLINS +110

dave

[Tony Vegas]

GL Dave!

[Warrior]

NFL Pre-Season adding...

*JAGS PK +120
*REDSKINS PK -175

dave

[Warrior]

NFL Pre-Season Adding:

Jags @ DOLPHINS

Miami is in turmoil. While it is only pre-season, their morale has got to be questionable. Williams is gone, and Wannstedt inked a new deal; neither of which is good.

Jags are ready to roll. They have a lot to look forward too and are expected to be vastly improved. A real sleeper this year, they are chomping at the bits to get going. The spirit of these two teams are contrare to each other. Wannstedt is 0-4 in his pre-season openers. Look for the Jags to win the battle of the Sunshine State.

JAGS PK +120


Panthers @ REDSKINS

Redskins playing their second game vs Carolina playing their first. SB loser 1-10 ATS in pre-season opener last 11 years. Not crazy about laying 3 and a hook in pre-season Week One, so we'll go with the Moneyline.

REDSKINS PK -175

dave

[Warrior]

Chicago Bears tonight...

dave

[Warrior]

Update: NFL Blowout Formula

In the NFL last season there were 256 Regular Season games played. Fifty-Seven of those were decided by 20 or more points, or about 22.3%.

The NFL Blowout Formula had 34 plays last Season. Ten of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 29.4%.

Of the 222 games that were not Blowout Formula Games, 47 of them were decided by 20 or more points, or about 21.2%.

What does it mean? That means that the NFL Blowout Formula Games beat out the other games by 8.2 percentage points. In real time, that means the Blowout Formula picks blowout games a whopping 38.7% more often (8.2 divided by 21.2).

That's nearly 40% more often and VERY significant. If it merely picked more blowouts 10-15% of the time, that could be considered variation. It tells me that the formula works.

Even more significant is the fact that nine out of 10 of the blowout games scored 30>; nine out of 10 also allowed 14 or less. Now, I did not subdivide all the games played last year; but I can tell you that many of the 20-point wins came on the strength of a huge offensive explosion like the Colts 55-20 over the Saints.

Or many of them came due to a defensive shut out win like 21-0 or something like that. Now don't get me wrong, a 20-point win is a 20-point win. But if you were to compare apples to apples, the results would be even more staggering.

What I am saying is that the Blowout Formula blowouts are complete domination--not just a 20-point win on one side of the ball or the other. Here's a listing of those games...

*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6

*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8

*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14

*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3

*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7

*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7

*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17

*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7

*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3

*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13


That is domination. These teams outyarded their opponents by an average of 201 yards per game: 432-231. The turnovers went in their favor 29-9. Wow. I'm sold on my latest formula. It is BY FAR the best I have developed in my 24-year career. Nearly 30% of its games are bonafide BLOWOUTS. Contrast that with the otherwise league average of 21%. Here's somemore analysis...

It's a busy time of year for me, and it's that time of year when I'm very active in developement, promotion, and gearing up for the upcoming season. Chances are, as you're on my mailing list, you've read about my newest NFL Formula: The NFL Blowout Formula.

In the midst of all the other stuff I have going on, I've taken the time to further look into this formula. First I'll list the plays, then I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.

You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty mind-boggling blowout results, while the 6> point dogs win outright most of the time.

The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results. "CB" means "Cover By". The games with asteriks*** are of the highest criteria met.


NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:


WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0

BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 412-462 5-0 CB 5


WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2

TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0 CB 10***
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4 CB -1
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1 CB -6


WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2

BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1 CB 2
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2 CB 4
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1 CB 6


WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3

BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0 CB 32***
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3 CB -10
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1 CB 1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3 CB 21***
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0 CB 11***


WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3

COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1 CB 1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1 CB 0
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2 CB 2


WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5

LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1 CB 15
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2 CB -7
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1 CB 21
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1 CB 1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1 CB -20


WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5

VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0 CB 26


WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5

COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2 CB 24***
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1 CB 7
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0 CB 6
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2 CB 3
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0 CB 14
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1 CB 31
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0 CB 14***


WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5

STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0 CB 10***
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3 CB 3


WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5

PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1 CB 19***
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1 CB 4
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1 CB 14
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2 CB 21***


Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them. Hey that's pretty strong in the NFL. Let that sink in.

Our team outyarded our opponent 19 times while being outyarded 15 times. In a bit of irony, even when our team was severly outyarded, somehow they managed a cover. That's a mystery to me.

When teams lose the yardage battle and/or the turnover battle, they typically will lose ATS a high percentage of the time. Yet, when confronted with the Blowout Formula, something seems to click with these teams.

Sometimes they outyarded their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they didn't do either one or both of those, they apparently showed up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they made it happen.

To give you an idea, in the 15 games in which our team was outyarded, they were 11-3-1 ATS. That just doesn't stack up against the norms. Something is clicking with these teams when it matters the most if the Blowout Formula is in effect. That's 11-3-1 ATS even when outyarded. It says a lot about the backbone of the Formula.

I've said it before and will say it again: I believe this to be the best developement of my 24-year handicapping career. Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot was an 11-point dog. They outyarded the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to...well...a ROUT--a 30-20 SU Winner!

In contrast, consider the TEXANS play vs the Patriots. Although they had a slight advantage in the turnover department (3-2), they got steam-rolled by the Pats 472-169 in the Yardage category. How the heck did this team cover? Especially against a team that went on an [otherwise] 15-game ATS WIN streak--interupted by one ATS loser versus...the TEXANS??? These Blowout Formula teams seem to take it up a notch either in yardage, turnovers, and/or red zone play.

Up to this point I've centered around the anamoly of how our teams are covering even when outyarded and/or having no significant advantage in the turnover department. But the reality is that this paradox is the exception and not the rule.

The rule of the day is that these teams OUTYARD their opponents, WIN the Turnover battles, and/or DOMINATE the Red Zone more often than not--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about : Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.

A look at the games with asteriks*** (highest criteria met) reveal the following:

*9-0 Straight Up and Against the Spread (Faves 6-0 SU & ATS: Dogs 3-0 SU & ATS)

*Teams Averaged WINNING by 20.6 Points Per Game (Faves by 27.2 ppg; Dogs by 7.3 ppg)

*Teams Averaged COVERING THE SPREAD by 18.0 Points Per Game (Faves by 19.5 ppg; Dogs by 15.0 ppg)

*ALL Nine Plays COVERED by DOUBLE-DIGITS

*TURNOVERS went in Teams favor 25-8; or 2.8 - 0.9 per game

*Teams OUTYARDED opponents by Average of 371-248 (Faves 411-226; Dogs 291-293)


And finally, out of a total of 34 plays, only three would have lost on a 6-point teaser.

If you're interested in receiving my NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Games this Season, feel free to visit the site or contact me for more info. They will be included in this year's Spread Report Online--an Online Football tipsheet now in its 4th year.

Also included will be:

*My College and Pro Football Top Plays with Analysis
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Formula Games (over 60% last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Yardage Formula Games (over 63% last 3 years)
*Exclusive NFL Real Number Line (a favorite; a solid 62-65% 1st-half, year in and year out)
*Exclusive NFL Turnover Super System Games (38-18 last 2 years)
*Commentary on ALL NFL matchups

And of course my occasional Proposition plays, Exotic plays, Team Totals, etc.

And let's not forget my NFL Preview with all my Futures plays including Team Wins OVER/UNDERS (7-0 last year), Division Winners, Conference Champions, and Superbowl Futures. Last year I correctly projected a Carolina-New England Superbowl matchup--before the Season began--as documented in Issue #1 of the 2003 Spread Report Online.

It's all EXCLUSIVE information that cannot be found anywhere else. And at 7 bucks an Issue, well, it's a Winner!

Right now you can receive about 25% off if you order by August 15th, reducing the cost to $5.41 per Issue. Check out the site for more details. Or, if you prefer, you can get signed up for a Full Season Subscription (22 Issues) by sending the August Early Bird discounted amount of 119.00 to:

www.paypal.com (send to: [email protected])
www.neteller.com (send to: [email protected])
Check or M.O. to: David K Toop - Box 8411 - Gulfport MS 39506

David K Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990
aol instant messenger: CAP4MONEY

[Warrior]

I woulda' thought the A's would be the last to crash and burn...