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    PRO INFO SPORTS kicked off the 2004 football season profitably with the NFL Hall of Fame Game. Our superior, in-depth information, analysis, and advice on Monday's game was once again ON THE MONEY and is shown below.

    Don't miss another WINNER! NOW is the time to join PRO INFO SPORTS and take advantage of our AUGUST SPECIAL:

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    OPINION SELECTION
    Hall of Fame Game
    Washington -1.5 over Denver

    Are you ready for some football? Ready or not, the 2004 preseason kicks off as Joe Gibbs returns to Washington’s sideline for the first time since the 1992 season. On Monday night Gibbs’ Redskins face the Denver Broncos in the Hall of Fame Game from Canton, Ohio.

    Several other interesting storylines will be present here. Redskins’ running back Clinton Portis and Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey, traded for one another in the offseason, will each get a chance to compete against their former club for the first time. Washington quarterback Mark Brunell, an offseason free agent acquisition from Jacksonville, will get his first opportunity to seize the starting job from incumbent signal-caller Patrick Ramsey. Jake Plummer will be the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback for Denver. It will be the veteran's first outing since a disappointing showing in a playoff loss to Indianapolis last January. Seeking to replace Portis in the starting lineup, Denver head coach Mike Shanahan will give opportunities to former backups Quentin Griffin and Mike Anderson, though second-round draft pick Tatum Bell, another expected player in the running back race, will not see time due to a broken finger.

    The Broncos are off a 10-6 season and playoff berth, while the Redskins floundered at 5-11 last year which led to Steve Spurrier’s resignation. So why are the ‘Skins a slight favorite here? Only 6 other times in the last 20 Hall of Fame Games has the favored team not come into this game off a year in which they had a better record than their opponent. While we do have some reservations, which prevent us from making this pick a 7 STAR SELECTION, we are fairly confident that Washington is the play here.

    One reason we are hesitant to completely dismiss Denver’s chances here is their tremendous preseason mark of 20-3 ATS in early & Week 1 preseason games. This year may be a bit different, however, as the reasons for that shocking success may not be present this time around. The Broncos have been blessed with tremendous talent and depth at the skill positions in years past, meaning there was not a big drop-off in ability once the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-stringers took the field. That simply is not the case here. After Plummer the QB cupboard is pretty bare, the running backs are good, but not spectacular with the loss of Portis, and their receiving corps will be especially thin in this game. The Broncos have historically done a great job keeping their rosters in tact and usually enter the regular season without much player turnover, but this year there will be a number of adjustments on both sides of the ball. Offensively, without the newly retired Shannon Sharpe, they do not have a tight end who can stretch the field and cause matchup problems over the middle. The picture is not much better on the perimeter. With Ed McCaffrey retiring and Rod Smith nearing the end, there is not a lot of stability at the position. This will put more pressure on talented, but inconsistent Ashley Lelie, who is now injured. Obviously, the situation in Denver's backfield will be a huge storyline to follow. With Hearst, Griffin, Bell, Ahmaad Galloway and Cecil Sapp, the Broncos have tremendous depth at running back. But the question still remains whether any of them can step up and be a legitimate No. 1 back?

    While Mike Shanahan has done well in the preseason SU & ATS, so has Joe Gibbs. New coaches like to win in the preseason. Of course, some "new" coaches aren’t new at all. Veteran head coaches that are simply changing cities do not figure to make winning an exhibition game a high priority. Other new coaches, however, are getting their first crack at being captain of the ship. These rookie coaches are naturally anxious to get that first "W" under their belt to prove to themselves, the team owner, and the rest of the league they can win. Due to Gibbs’ absence from the game for over a decade, he is not coming in with the attitude of a veteran coach just going through the preseason motions. In this situation, he is much more like a "rookie" coach who is anxious and eager to taste victory. "To be truthful ... it wasn't that big a deal," Gibbs said of the preseason. "We were more concerned with doing things right technically, and if you didn't win the game, you didn't win the game. It's definitely different now. I would hate to look bad, and the players feel that way, too. It's different when you go through the first go-around. We would like to play well." Said cornerback Fred Smoot: "We want to win. We're not a losing ballclub. We could have a scrimmage right now with the Baltimore Ravens, and we would go out there and want to win."

    Washington’s QB situation is the polar opposite of Denver’s. The only QB question in the Mile High City, is who will be holding the clipboard when Jake Plummer is behind center? In D.C., a battle for the starting job is at stake. Gibbs will give both Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey a chance to perform well so he can find out who will be his #1 man in the regular season. There is little drop in talent, if any, from Brunell to Ramsey. Plummer will likely only play a series or 2 for Denver, while Gibbs may let Brunell and Ramsey play a quarter apiece. He could well leave the rest of his 1st-string offense in there to build some continuity. Ramsey and a 1st-string offense going against the Bronco’s 2nd-string defense would create a huge mismatch in the ‘Skins favor. Additionally, both Washington QBs will be highly motivated. If that weren’t enough, Washington’s 3rd-stringer is Tim Hasselbeck, who started several games toward the end of last year in place of the injured Ramsey, and played reasonably well. This compares to the unproven free agent and rookie signal-callers for Denver in their QB rotation, giving Washington a big edge.

    Most teams play vanilla defenses during the preseason, but some will resort to blitzing, and that usually gives a team an advantage. Teams who blitz a lot during preseason often do well because their opponents aren’t ready for it with backup linemen. It’s almost an unwritten rule among the NFL coaching fraternity not to blitz much during preseason. But some clubs need to practice it under game conditions. While Denver is expected to do more blitzing this year, it will pale in comparison to what Washington has in store for its opponents. Not only is Gibbs back roaming the sidelines, he has brought some of the best assistants in the game with him, including Gregg Williams as his DC. Williams is instituting an ultra-aggressive game plan designed to pressure and rattle opposing quarterbacks. He said he believes the team acquired the kind of fast and athletic personnel required in the last few months to complement the incumbent talent. The preseason games will provide an invaluable forum for getting key players acclimated to the various sets and personnel shifts required. Will Washington use the "ultra-aggressive" game plan this early? Absolutely. In fact, on the first scrimmage play of Joe Gibbs' first Washington Redskins mini-camp in a dozen years this past spring, Williams pulled a surprise and blitzed all 11 players. "Why would Gregg do that?" Gibbs said, laughing. Williams responded, "That's what we hope to be like for the rest of 2004." Again, advantage Washington.

    One doesn’t think of rivalries and revenge in the preseason, but it does happen occasionally, and such is the case here. Clinton Portis simply can’t wait to step on the field against his former team, and while Champ Bailey is also certainly looking forward to facing his old team, Portis knows the Shanahan-led Broncos much better than Bailey knows the Gibbs-led Redskins and has been looking forward to this game since it first showed up on the NFL's schedule.

    The Broncos’ backers would say since starters rarely see more than a few series of action in Hall of Fame games, you’d probably be smart to lean more toward Shanahan’s established systems than Gibbs’ new game plans for this one. It’s true as well, that Gibbs has been talking about ambushing teams early in the regular season with brand new systems and philosophies since he took the job, so he doesn’t figure to blow his cover early. The Redskins are also going to take a while to get used to working with each other since about a third of the squad’s roster has changed since last season, but Gibbs has already made his mark on the club. "We have a well-conditioned group," Gibbs told reporters recently after the team completed a three-week set of voluntary practices. "We don't have a bunch of fat guys where we have to worry a lot." Gibbs has described the offense as "kind of rough" early in camp, but in the final few days of practice leading up to this game, the play did improve somewhat. If anyone can come out of an 11-year retirement and get a team ready for a football game, it’s Joe Gibbs. He has been on a nonstop emotional high since his announcement eight months ago that he will return to coaching. He has taken on with relish the endless hours of film study needed to get back in sync with the game. The infamous late-night work ethic that led the Redskins to three Super Bowl titles from 1981-92 hasn't missed a beat. Gibbs' first minicamp was no exception. "That's about as well as I've seen this team play - in or out of season," linebacker LaVar Arrington said after a three-day camp in May. Five months before their first game, the Redskins already had the clock ticking on the 2004 season. The message came through loud and clear, even for established stars like Arrington, who did his offseason conditioning at Redskins Park for the first time. Even in May he said, "It feels like August, the way we're practicing. It's almost like there's a game next week." Another indication of how seriously Gibbs is taking this game, was his recent "treating" the team to a 70-minute workout as though it was a complete, four-quarter game, going through their regular pregame routine, running the full offense against the full defense, taking a break at halftime and working on substitutions. "We were trying to simulate, organizationally, what we're going to do to get the players used to that before we get up there Monday night," Gibbs said.

    While the Redskins have furiously been preparing for this game, Denver has taken a much more casual approach. Mike Shanahan was already in Canton, Ohio, one day before the Hall of Fame ceremony to induct John Elway, and the talk in Bronco camp much of this past week was surrounding Elway’s induction. It was truly a great day and event for Elway and the Broncos football family; however, it will likely serve as a distraction from the actual game.

    Again, Shanahan and Denver have done well in the preseason, especially early; however, the Broncos are just 9-10 ATS as a preseason underdog and a poor 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS in neutral site preseason games. Joe Gibbs was 3-1 ATS in preseason games during his rookie year way back in 1981, and now finds himself the slight favorite here, although line has been dropping. This gives us additional line value which we will gladly take. Hall of Fame Game favorites have gone 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games, and as we mentioned, only 6 times in the past 20 years, has a Hall of Fame Game favorite entered the game not coming off a better season than their opponent. Those favorites have gone 5-0-1 ATS, and we like Gibbs and Washington to make it 6-0-1.

    GAME & WRITE-UP NOTES: While most handicappers over-looked Gibbs' desire to win this game against a quality opponent, we did not. Several other deciding factors led to the Redskins win: the play of Washington QB Tim Hasselbeck, the Redskins' defensive pressure, shaky play by Denver's back-up QBs, and Washington's clock management and play execution in the final minute of the game, all of which we accounted for. We also uncovered a Hall of Fame system that we shared with our clients to back up the selection.

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  • #2
    After all that typing you could have typed one more line...

    COMP PLAY IS______________

    once again....kmann


    Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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