Tweet
In case you missed them, Handicapping the NFL Preseason Parts 1-5 are available at:
http://www.proinfosports.com/free-lert.html
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 6
A.T.S. - Finally, PRO INFO SPORTS crunches numerous Angles, Trends, and Systems, examining various scenarios. Teams that had a poor season last year, winning less than 7 games have had a very hard time in Week 1 of the preseason against teams that won less than 10 games last year. Road teams with 2+ preseason wins have done very well against home teams that have exactly one preseason victory. Home favorites of 3+ points have been "play-against" teams if they had a top-10 defense last year and are playing an opponent with a defense that finished in the bottom 10. Home teams that finished in the top 10 in both offense and defense the previous season have done very poorly against teams that did not have a top-10 offense and defense. Underdogs of more than a TD have been strong in various situations. New coaches, especially as underdogs, have also done very well. Certain coaches have developed winning and losing histories. Herm Edwards of the Jets, Brian Billick in Baltimore, Bill Parcells in Dallas, Jon Gruden at Tampa, Dennis Erickson in San Francisco, Bill Belichick of the world-champion Patriots, and Mike Shanahan in Denver are intense coaches who have strong preseason records, while Dom Capers in Houston and Mike Martz in St Louis are a couple of coaches who have not put a lot of emphasis on preseason winning and it's reflected in their records.
In the first couple of preseason weeks coaches are looking at newcomers they are not overly concerned with winning or putting up points. There are usually a few more mistakes in these first two games when the inexperienced players are getting more reps. Later in preseason play, the last two preseason games, the first teamers play a bit more and the offensive game plans become more diverse and more difficult to defend as teams get closer to regular season play even though conservatism, usually, still rules. Investing in the UNDER total can be a strong move early.
We do have to find that fine line between going with all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly so with the public jumping on the same side that we are. Going against preseason line moves of 2.5+ points has been worth a very strong look, especially when such moves are not justified by the factors outlined. In games with line moves that are indeed justified, a "no-play" is probably in order.
This is just a sampling of the numbers that PRO INFO SPORTS considers when we evaluate preseason games. The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a sports gaming investor realizes that, he has taken first step towards starting the regular season with a beefed-up bankroll. When PRO INFO SPORTS integrates all of our Preseason handicapping methods, we provide our clients with winning information, analysis, and advice as shown in a couple of examples from 2003:
Tennessee -1 1/2 over CINCINNATI
The Tennessee Titans face their second former AFC Central foe in three preseason games Saturday night, when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Tennessee began the preseason with a win over ex-Central division rival Cleveland and followed it up with an impressive 37-24 victory over Buffalo last week. Cincinnati got into the preseason win column with a 23-10 victory over Detroit at home last week as rookie QB Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a pair of third quarter touchdowns in his home debut. Marvin Lewis picked up his first win as a head coach at any level.
When Titans QB Neil O'Donnell plays, it gives Tennessee one of the deepest QB rotations in the league. O'Donnell was held out last week but will be back behind center vs. the Bengals. Of course the starter is Steve McNair who has looked very impressive in the pre-season. We also know that coach Jeff Fisher expects the starters to play far more in the final two preseason games than they did in the first two. As he has routinely done in the preseason, Fisher will play the regulars through halftime and into the third quarter against the Bengals this week.
Expect to see more of rookie Carson Palmer for Cincinnati, following Jon Kitna. While the Titan starters will play into the second half, Lewis will have Bengal back-ups on the field before the break, giving Tennessee a decided advantage.
...With minimal points to give away, we have a strong selection here on Tennessee to win and cover this low number.
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 23 CINCINNATI 15
San Diego E over HOUSTON
Two squads still searching for their first preseason win take the field at Reliant Stadium on Saturday, when the Houston Texans host the San Diego Chargers. San Diego lost a 16-10 decision to the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium last week after losing their opener in Seattle. Houston is looking for answers after being embarrassed, 34-6, by in-state rival Dallas last week.
Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer doesn't expect to do anything dramatically different this week regarding his substitution pattern, but against the Texans he shouldn't have to. Houston's starters will also see limited time. THE BIG EDGE FOR SAN DIEGO IS THEIR QB ROTATION with Drew Brees and Doug Flutie leading the way. Houston's David Carr is only expected to play 20-25 snaps before giving way to Tony Banks, Mike Quinn, and the rookie Dave Ragone, none of whom has been impressive this summer...
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: SAN DIEGO 19 HOUSTON 17
Again, this is the kind of information, analysis, and advice provided by PRO INFO SPORTS for our clients.
NOW is the time to join our winning team and take advantage of the AUGUST SPECIAL:
* Get the NFL Pre-Season FREE with any SEASON E-LERT, POWER SYSTEM, or SEASON POWERePORT package!
If you want to try us for the NFL Preseason only before signing up for the rest of the season you can get EVERY Preseason selection via the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for only $44.95.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
The PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT FREE-LERT features a sample of the in-depth information, analysis, and advice available from PRO INFO SPORTS with complimentary selections. If you would like to join the FREE-LERT e-mailing list, simply send us a note at:
[email protected]
For ALL of our client selections, subscribe to the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT via PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS. E-LERTS are issued the day prior to all football games and detail each Money Play and opinion with comprehensive information, analysis and advice.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
PRO INFO SPORTS Publications presents the most POWERful handicapping tool available - The 2004 NFL POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA - with 400 computer-researched and documented 90%-100% ATS POWER SYSTEMS for every situation throughout the NFL season.
Complete details including a FREE 20-0 ATS POWER SYSTEM are available at:
http://www.proinfosports.com/Power.html
It's offered as an e-BOOK, on CD-ROM, or via subscription to the POWERePORT from PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
INVEST with the BEST. JOIN the PRO INFO SPORTS team TODAY and start winning TONIGHT!
http://www.proinfosports.com/free-lert.html
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 6
A.T.S. - Finally, PRO INFO SPORTS crunches numerous Angles, Trends, and Systems, examining various scenarios. Teams that had a poor season last year, winning less than 7 games have had a very hard time in Week 1 of the preseason against teams that won less than 10 games last year. Road teams with 2+ preseason wins have done very well against home teams that have exactly one preseason victory. Home favorites of 3+ points have been "play-against" teams if they had a top-10 defense last year and are playing an opponent with a defense that finished in the bottom 10. Home teams that finished in the top 10 in both offense and defense the previous season have done very poorly against teams that did not have a top-10 offense and defense. Underdogs of more than a TD have been strong in various situations. New coaches, especially as underdogs, have also done very well. Certain coaches have developed winning and losing histories. Herm Edwards of the Jets, Brian Billick in Baltimore, Bill Parcells in Dallas, Jon Gruden at Tampa, Dennis Erickson in San Francisco, Bill Belichick of the world-champion Patriots, and Mike Shanahan in Denver are intense coaches who have strong preseason records, while Dom Capers in Houston and Mike Martz in St Louis are a couple of coaches who have not put a lot of emphasis on preseason winning and it's reflected in their records.
In the first couple of preseason weeks coaches are looking at newcomers they are not overly concerned with winning or putting up points. There are usually a few more mistakes in these first two games when the inexperienced players are getting more reps. Later in preseason play, the last two preseason games, the first teamers play a bit more and the offensive game plans become more diverse and more difficult to defend as teams get closer to regular season play even though conservatism, usually, still rules. Investing in the UNDER total can be a strong move early.
We do have to find that fine line between going with all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly so with the public jumping on the same side that we are. Going against preseason line moves of 2.5+ points has been worth a very strong look, especially when such moves are not justified by the factors outlined. In games with line moves that are indeed justified, a "no-play" is probably in order.
This is just a sampling of the numbers that PRO INFO SPORTS considers when we evaluate preseason games. The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a sports gaming investor realizes that, he has taken first step towards starting the regular season with a beefed-up bankroll. When PRO INFO SPORTS integrates all of our Preseason handicapping methods, we provide our clients with winning information, analysis, and advice as shown in a couple of examples from 2003:
Tennessee -1 1/2 over CINCINNATI
The Tennessee Titans face their second former AFC Central foe in three preseason games Saturday night, when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Tennessee began the preseason with a win over ex-Central division rival Cleveland and followed it up with an impressive 37-24 victory over Buffalo last week. Cincinnati got into the preseason win column with a 23-10 victory over Detroit at home last week as rookie QB Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a pair of third quarter touchdowns in his home debut. Marvin Lewis picked up his first win as a head coach at any level.
When Titans QB Neil O'Donnell plays, it gives Tennessee one of the deepest QB rotations in the league. O'Donnell was held out last week but will be back behind center vs. the Bengals. Of course the starter is Steve McNair who has looked very impressive in the pre-season. We also know that coach Jeff Fisher expects the starters to play far more in the final two preseason games than they did in the first two. As he has routinely done in the preseason, Fisher will play the regulars through halftime and into the third quarter against the Bengals this week.
Expect to see more of rookie Carson Palmer for Cincinnati, following Jon Kitna. While the Titan starters will play into the second half, Lewis will have Bengal back-ups on the field before the break, giving Tennessee a decided advantage.
...With minimal points to give away, we have a strong selection here on Tennessee to win and cover this low number.
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 23 CINCINNATI 15
San Diego E over HOUSTON
Two squads still searching for their first preseason win take the field at Reliant Stadium on Saturday, when the Houston Texans host the San Diego Chargers. San Diego lost a 16-10 decision to the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium last week after losing their opener in Seattle. Houston is looking for answers after being embarrassed, 34-6, by in-state rival Dallas last week.
Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer doesn't expect to do anything dramatically different this week regarding his substitution pattern, but against the Texans he shouldn't have to. Houston's starters will also see limited time. THE BIG EDGE FOR SAN DIEGO IS THEIR QB ROTATION with Drew Brees and Doug Flutie leading the way. Houston's David Carr is only expected to play 20-25 snaps before giving way to Tony Banks, Mike Quinn, and the rookie Dave Ragone, none of whom has been impressive this summer...
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: SAN DIEGO 19 HOUSTON 17
Again, this is the kind of information, analysis, and advice provided by PRO INFO SPORTS for our clients.
NOW is the time to join our winning team and take advantage of the AUGUST SPECIAL:
* Get the NFL Pre-Season FREE with any SEASON E-LERT, POWER SYSTEM, or SEASON POWERePORT package!
If you want to try us for the NFL Preseason only before signing up for the rest of the season you can get EVERY Preseason selection via the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for only $44.95.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
The PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT FREE-LERT features a sample of the in-depth information, analysis, and advice available from PRO INFO SPORTS with complimentary selections. If you would like to join the FREE-LERT e-mailing list, simply send us a note at:
[email protected]
For ALL of our client selections, subscribe to the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT via PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS. E-LERTS are issued the day prior to all football games and detail each Money Play and opinion with comprehensive information, analysis and advice.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
PRO INFO SPORTS Publications presents the most POWERful handicapping tool available - The 2004 NFL POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA - with 400 computer-researched and documented 90%-100% ATS POWER SYSTEMS for every situation throughout the NFL season.
Complete details including a FREE 20-0 ATS POWER SYSTEM are available at:
http://www.proinfosports.com/Power.html
It's offered as an e-BOOK, on CD-ROM, or via subscription to the POWERePORT from PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
INVEST with the BEST. JOIN the PRO INFO SPORTS team TODAY and start winning TONIGHT!