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**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 04:58 PM

NFL Blowout Formula Analysis

It's a busy time of year for me, and it's that time of year when I'm very active in developement, promotion, and gearing up for the upcoming season. Chances are, if you've been at the forum more than 2 or 3 days, you've read about my newest NFL Formula: The NFL Blowout Formula.

In the midst of all the other stuff I have going on, I've taken the time to further look into this formula. First I'll list the plays, the I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.

You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty mind-boggling blowout results, while the 6> point dogs win outright most of the time or cover the generous (considering their live dog role) spread.

The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results...

NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:

WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0

BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 1-0/1-0 412-462 5-0

WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2

TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1

WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2

BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1

WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3

BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0

WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3

COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2

WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5

LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1

WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5

VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0

WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5

COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0

WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5

STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3

WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5

PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2

Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them. Hey that's pretty strong in the NFL. Let that sink in.

Our team outyarded our opponent 19 times while being outyarded 15 times. In a bit of irony, even when our team was severly outyarded, somehow they managed a cover. That's a mystery to me.

When teams lose the yardage battle and/or the turnover battle, they typically will lose ATS a high percentage of the time. Yet, when confronted with the Blowout Formula, something seems to click with these teams.

Sometimes they outyard their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they don't do either one or both of those, they apparently show up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they make it happen.

To give you an idea, in the 15 games in which our team was outyarded, they were 11-3-1 ATS. That just doesn't stack up against the norms. Something is clicking with these teams when it counts the most if the Blowout Formula is in effect. In fact, give me an extra 1 point in the line and that record becomes 13-2 ATS. That just doesn't add up. It says a lot about the backbone of the Formula.

I'm not just hyping this thing for promotion. I've said it before and will say it again: I believe this to be the best developement of my 24-year handicapping career. Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot is a 12-point dog. They outyard the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to, well, a rout. A 30-20 SU Winner.

In contrast, consider the TEXANS play vs the Patriots. Although they had a slight advantage in the turnover department (3-2), they got steam rolled by the Pats 169-472 in the Yardage category. How the heck did this team cover? Especially against a team that went on an otherwise 15-game ATS WIN streak--interupted by one ATS loser versus...the TEXANS??? These Blowout Formula teams seem to take it up a notch either in yardage, turnovers, and/or red zone play.

Up to this point I've centered around the anamoly of how our teams are covering even when outyarded and/or having no significant advantage in the turnover department. But the reality is that this paradox is the exception and not the rule.

The rule of the day is that these teams outyard their opponents, win the turnover battles, and/or dominate the red zone more often than not--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about : Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.

David K Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990

**buzzer beater** · 08-04-2004, 05:03 PM

Warrior AKA Dave:

I e-mailed you early this am for your free million dollar play today. I have not received it yet.

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 05:13 PM

I did not receive that email. Can you call me? If not, try the email again...

228-424-6990
[email protected]

**buzzer beater** · 08-04-2004, 05:17 PM

I just sent another e-mail.

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 05:50 PM

got it...thanks...

dave

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 06:08 PM

NFL Hall of Fame Game @ Canton, OHIO
Monday August 9, 2004

DENVER BRONCOS vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS

With the NFL Hall of Fame Game right around the corner, I thought it would be timely to take a look at the game. When capping pre-season there are a number of factors that come into play. Since the first two games the starters see little action, you want to look at depth and QB battles.

But one of the most important things in the first couple of games is coaching philosophy. Some coaches are concerned about one thing and one thing only: evaluating players regardless of the scoreboard. An example of this would be Marv Levy, former coach of the Bills. In contrast, while some coaches are concerned about evaluating players, in addition they want to instill a winning attitude right off the bat.

That's why you'll often see first year coaches that do well in their first game as the new head coach. Even some veteran coaches like to win in Pre-Season. Good examples would be Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, and Mike Shanahan.

It is Shanahan's record that I want to key in on. For the first time in 7 years the Broncos find themselves underdogs when the play the Redskins in Canton. The fact that they havent' been dogs in 7 years ought to tell you something. Could it be that they havent' faced a team better than they? No. Of course not. It means that the linesmaker knows that some coaches put weight to winning and others do not.

Before I go into Shanny's record, let me touch on Joe Gibbs. Since his last season to coach was 1992, I do not have the records for his pre-season. Marc Lawrence's Playbook offers only that he was 9-0 on road vs crappy teams and 9-1 in Game four. Since his Redskins arent' playing a team that is expected to be a <.500 ball club during the pre-season, that trend would not apply. And since this is as far from week four as you can get, neither would the other trend apply.

In fact, the very idea that he is in precisely the opposite role would imply that those were his weaker areas in the Pre-Season; but, admittedly, that is mere speculation. He cannot really be considered a "new" coach or 1st year coach, so the temptation to win his first pre-season game is minimal.

The thing that I see here with Gibbs is one who, having been gone from the game for 12 years, will let his players go out there and just watch. Forget the scoreboard. He's too wise and too good to be concerned. That is just speculation on my part. But he's been around a while with nothing to prove, and I highly suspect he will sit back and watch carefully as he takes it in. The tribe has an awful lot of good things ahead with their off-season acquisitions, but dont look for the vets to play more than 1 or 2 drives. A lot of gelling will need to take place this season, but I doubt Gibbs will be empasizing much in Canton. Just watching.

Having guessed on where Gibbs stands, here's where Shanahan stands:

MIKE SHANAHAN Pre-Season (9 years with Broncos)

GAMES: 39

SU RECORD: 28-11

ATS RECORD: 25-14

FIRST GAME: 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS

RECORD as DOG: 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS (has not been dog since '97)

RECORD AWAY FROM HOME: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS NEUTRAL; 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS

SINCE ELWAY RETIRED: 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS

NOTABLES:

*Shanahan's combined record for his first year w/Broncos, his first year after Elway's retirement, and both follow up years to his Superbowl Wins was 9-10 ATS. He is 16-4 ATS in the other 5 Seasons combined.

*Legendary former Bronco QB John Elway will enter Hall of Fame the night of the Game which presumably would be additional incentive for the young Broncos to perform.

*BRONCOS are 7-1 SU and ATS last four seasons away from home, the only loss being at Lambeau.

*BRONCOS are a perrenial SB contender this Season; Redskins are rebuilding.

With Shanahan being 9-0 SU in his pre-season openers, it's hard to go against him here; much less lay points to him. Just in case Gibbs is eager to win his first game back, and because so many pre-season games are decided by a FG, I would buy it to +3 -130...

*BRONCOS +3 -130 over Redskins

dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 07:47 PM

up for gametime

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 07:56 PM

It's been brought to my attention that there were some Hotmail problems this morning and that some who emailed for the free Million $$$ Play did not get through.

Please be advised that Tampa Bay +135 is my free million $$$ play...

dave

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 08:09 PM

up for gametime

**surveyor** · 08-04-2004, 11:29 PM

Nice call on Tampa. Your write up talked me in to it and I cashed.
Thanks.:cool:

**suprasass** · 08-05-2004, 03:47 AM

Warrior, how do I get your email addy. Is the hotmail address correct? or is that one still having problems?

**Warrior** · 08-05-2004, 03:57 AM

It was Hotmail having probs and not my address. My address is good:

[email protected]

dave

**suprasass** · 08-05-2004, 04:05 AM

I will try to email you until hotmail is fixed and my email gets through. Thanks

**Warrior** · 08-05-2004, 04:59 AM

My hotmail account is up an running. Try going to your email address and emailing me from there instead of clicking on the link at the forum.

Or you can catch me at aol instant messenger: CAP4MONEY

dave

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