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**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 05:39 AM

Blowout Formula Analysis

It's a busy time of year for me, and it's that time of year when I'm very active in developement, promotion, and gearing up for the upcoming season. Chances are, if you've been at the forum more than 2 or 3 days, you've read about my newest NFL Formula: The NFL Blowout Formula.

In the midst of all the other stuff I have going on, I've taken the time to further look into this formula. First I'll list the plays, the I'll do a brief critical analysis. Note that of the 28-5-1 ATS record, the games where the line is +/- 6> are 18-0-0 ATS.

You'll notice that the 6> point faves pull out some pretty mind-boggling blowout results, while the 6> point dogs win outright most of the time or cover the generous (considering their live dog role) spread.

The numbers to the right of the games are a breakdown of the Net Yardage Results and the Turnover Battle results...

NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA Results from the 2003 Season:

WEEK EIGHT: 1-0/1-0

BENGALS (+2') 27, Seahawks 24 WIN 1-0/1-0 412-462 5-0

WEEK NINE: 1-2/2-2

TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10 WIN 267-367 1-0
JETS (+2') 28, GIANTS 31 Lose 392-413 0-4
BRONCOS (-2') 26, Patriots 30 Lose (Monday) 277-419 2-1

WEEK TEN: 3-0/5-2

BENGALS (-5) 34, Texans 27 WIN 422-269 1-1
REDSKINS (+3') 27, Seahawks 20 WIN 379-346 3-2
STEELERS (-7) 28, Cardinals 15 WIN 246-379 1-1

WEEK ELEVEN: 4-1/9-3

BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6 WIN 481-187 4-0
BUCS (-3') 13, Packers 20 Lose 285-282 1-3
COLTS (-6) 38, Jets 31 WIN 538-324 1-1
BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8 WIN 448-96 4-3
SEAHAWKS (-10') 35, Lions 14 WIN 366-357 2-0

WEEK TWELVE: 2-0/11-3

COWBOYS (-3) 24, Panthers 20 WIN 319-244 2-1
BILLS (+3) 14, Colts 17 PUSH 228-326 1-1
TEXANS (+5') 20, Patriots 23 WIN 169-472 3-2

WEEK THIRTEEN: 3-2/14-5

LIONS (+7) 22, Packers 14 WIN (Thu) 266-320 5-1
COLTS (-3') 34, Patriots 38 Lose 370-282 3-2
BEARS (-4) 28, Cardinals 3 WIN 422-197 3-1
TEXANS (-3) 17, Falcons 13 WIN 236-243 1-1
GIANTS (-3) 7, Bills 24 Lose 222-403 0-1

WEEK FOURTEEN: 1-0/15-5

VIKINGS (-1) 34, Seahawks 7 WIN 465-258 3-0

WEEK FIFTEEN: 7-0/22-5

COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7 WIN 465-154 2-2
PATRIOTS (-7) 27, Jaguars 13 WIN 296-354 2-1
BEARS (+3) 13, Vikings 10 WIN 232-393 1-0
CARDINALS (+6') 17, Panthers 20 WIN 317-298 2-2
CHIEFS (-14') 45, Lions 17 WIN 521-334 2-0
SAINTS (-7) 45, Giants 7 WIN 440-241 2-1
RAIDERS (+6') 20, Ravens 12 WIN 265-319 3-0

WEEK SIXTEEN: 2-0/24-5

STEELERS (-6') 40, Chargers 24 WIN 341-344 3-0
TEXANS (+6) 24, Titans 27 WIN 326-450 1-3

WEEK SEVENTEEN: 4-0/28-5

PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3 WIN 366-216 3-1
FALCONS (-3) 21, Jaguars 14 WIN 344-320 1-1
TITANS (-6') 33, Bucs 13 WIN 344-274 4-1
LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20 WIN 342-194 3-2

Out of 34 games, the TURNOVERS went in our team's favor 22 times and against us only 4 times--the other 8 times being equal. In fact, our teams (both winners and losers) had 75 turnovers go in their favor versus only 40 against them. Hey that's pretty strong in the NFL. Let that sink in.

Our team outyarded our opponent 19 times while being outyarded 15 times. In a bit of irony, even when our team was severly outyarded, somehow they managed a cover. That's a mystery to me.

When teams lose the yardage battle and/or the turnover battle, they typically will lose ATS a high percentage of the time. Yet, when confronted with the Blowout Formula, something seems to click with these teams.

Sometimes they outyard their opponent by a huge margin; sometimes they dominated the turnover battle; and when they don't do either one or both of those, they apparently show up in the Red Zone. Simply put, they make it happen.

To give you an idea, in the 15 games in which our team was outyarded, they were 11-3-1 ATS. That just doesn't stack up against the norms. Something is clicking with these teams when it counts the most if the Blowout Formula is in effect. In fact, give me an extra 1 point in the line and that record becomes 13-2 ATS. That just doesn't add up. It says a lot about the backbone of the Formula.

I'm not just hyping this thing for promotion. I've said it before and will say it again: I believe this to be the best developement of my 24-year handicapping career. Consider the LIONS-Rams Game. Detriot is a 12-point dog. They outyard the Rams 342-194 and won the turnover battle 3-2 in rout to, well, a rout. A 30-20 SU Winner.

In contrast, consider the TEXANS play vs the Patriots. Although they had a slight advantage in the turnover department (3-2), they got steam rolled by the Pats 169-472 in the Yardage category. How the heck did this team cover? Especially against a team that went on an otherwise 15-game ATS WIN streak--interupted by one ATS loser versus...the TEXANS??? These Blowout Formula teams seem to take it up a notch either in yardage, turnovers, and/or red zone play.

Up to this point I've centered around the anamoly of how our teams are covering even when outyarded and/or having no significant advantage in the turnover department. But the reality is that this paradox is the exception and not the rule.

The rule of the day is that these teams outyard their opponents, win the turnover battles, and/or dominate the red zone more often than not--and that's what the BLOWOUT FORMULA is all about: Focus and Execution. And that adds up to a whole lotta' pointspread WINNERS.

David K Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990

**Sportsrmylife** · 08-04-2004, 11:12 AM

what day during the week does your online letter come out? What plays come with the online newsletter? Are the extreme plays included with the letter?

Thanks

**Warrior** · 08-04-2004, 03:39 PM

Sports,

The sheet goes out on Thursday and includes all my football stuff, top plays and all. Nothing is witheld. The blowout games are included...

dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com

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