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NFL Hall of Fame Game @ Canton, OHIO
Monday August 9, 2004
DENVER BRONCOS vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS
With the NFL Hall of Fame Game right around the corner, I thought it would be timely to take a look at the game. When capping pre-season there are a number of factors that come into play. Since the first two games the starters see little action, you want to look at depth and QB battles.
But one of the most important things in the first couple of games is coaching philosophy. Some coaches are concerned about one thing and one thing only: evaluating players regardless of the scoreboard. An example of this would be Marv Levy, former coach of the Bills. In contrast, while some coaches are concerned about evaluating players, in addition they want to instill a winning attitude right off the bat.
That's why you'll often see first year coaches that do well in their first game as the new head coach. Even some veteran coaches like to win in Pre-Season. Good examples would be Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, and Mike Shanahan.
It is Shanahan's record that I want to key in on. For the first time in 7 years the Broncos find themselves underdogs when the play the Redskins in Canton. The fact that they havent' been dogs in 7 years ought to tell you something. Could it be that they havent' faced a team better than they? No. Of course not. It means that the linesmaker knows that some coaches put weight to winning and others do not.
Before I go into Shanny's record, let me touch on Joe Gibbs. Since his last season to coach was 1992, I do not have the records for his pre-season. Marc Lawrence's Playbook offers only that he was 9-0 on road vs crappy teams and 9-1 in Game four. Since his Redskins arent' playing a team that is expected to be a <.500 ball club during the pre-season, that trend would not apply. And since this is as far from week four as you can get, neither would the other trend apply.
In fact, the very idea that he is in precisely the opposite role would imply that those were his weaker areas in the Pre-Season; but, admittedly, that is mere speculation. He cannot really be considered a "new" coach or 1st year coach, so the temptation to win his first pre-season game is minimal.
The thing that I see here with Gibbs is one who, having been gone from the game for 12 years, will let his players go out there and just watch. Forget the scoreboard. He's too wise and too good to be concerned. That is just speculation on my part. But he's been around a while with nothing to prove, and I highly suspect he will sit back and watch carefully as he takes it in. The tribe has an awful lot of good things ahead with their off-season acquisitions, but dont look for the vets to play more than 1 or 2 drives. A lot of gelling will need to take place this season, but I doubt Gibbs will be empasizing much in Canton. Just watching.
Having guessed on where Gibbs stands, here's where Shanahan stands:
MIKE SHANAHAN Pre-Season (9 years with Broncos)
GAMES: 39
SU RECORD: 28-11
ATS RECORD: 25-14
FIRST GAME: 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS
RECORD as DOG: 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS (has not been dog since '97)
RECORD AWAY FROM HOME: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS NEUTRAL; 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS
SINCE ELWAY RETIRED: 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS
NOTABLES:
*Shanahan's combined record for his first year w/Broncos, his first year after Elway's retirement, and both follow up years to his Superbowl Wins was 9-10 ATS. He is 16-4 ATS in the other 5 Seasons combined.
*Legendary former Bronco QB John Elway will enter Hall of Fame the night of the Game which presumably would be additional incentive for the young Broncos to perform.
*BRONCOS are 7-1 SU and ATS last four seasons away from home, the only loss being at Lambeau.
*BRONCOS are a perrenial SB contender this Season; Redskins are rebuilding.
With Shanahan being 9-0 SU in his pre-season openers, it's hard to go against him here; much less lay points to him. Just in case Gibbs is eager to win his first game back, and because so many pre-season games are decided by a FG, I would buy it to +3 -120...
*BRONCOS +3 -120 over Redskins
Don't forget the JULY EARLY BIRD SPECIAL is almost over for my Spread Report Online. At only 4 bucks per sheet, it's a steal.
For more info on my Football Online Tipsheet, check out the site or other threads of mine.
Be sure to check out my "Betting Systems for NFL & NCAA Foots" thread and my "NFL Blowout Formula Results" thread.
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
Monday August 9, 2004
DENVER BRONCOS vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS
With the NFL Hall of Fame Game right around the corner, I thought it would be timely to take a look at the game. When capping pre-season there are a number of factors that come into play. Since the first two games the starters see little action, you want to look at depth and QB battles.
But one of the most important things in the first couple of games is coaching philosophy. Some coaches are concerned about one thing and one thing only: evaluating players regardless of the scoreboard. An example of this would be Marv Levy, former coach of the Bills. In contrast, while some coaches are concerned about evaluating players, in addition they want to instill a winning attitude right off the bat.
That's why you'll often see first year coaches that do well in their first game as the new head coach. Even some veteran coaches like to win in Pre-Season. Good examples would be Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, and Mike Shanahan.
It is Shanahan's record that I want to key in on. For the first time in 7 years the Broncos find themselves underdogs when the play the Redskins in Canton. The fact that they havent' been dogs in 7 years ought to tell you something. Could it be that they havent' faced a team better than they? No. Of course not. It means that the linesmaker knows that some coaches put weight to winning and others do not.
Before I go into Shanny's record, let me touch on Joe Gibbs. Since his last season to coach was 1992, I do not have the records for his pre-season. Marc Lawrence's Playbook offers only that he was 9-0 on road vs crappy teams and 9-1 in Game four. Since his Redskins arent' playing a team that is expected to be a <.500 ball club during the pre-season, that trend would not apply. And since this is as far from week four as you can get, neither would the other trend apply.
In fact, the very idea that he is in precisely the opposite role would imply that those were his weaker areas in the Pre-Season; but, admittedly, that is mere speculation. He cannot really be considered a "new" coach or 1st year coach, so the temptation to win his first pre-season game is minimal.
The thing that I see here with Gibbs is one who, having been gone from the game for 12 years, will let his players go out there and just watch. Forget the scoreboard. He's too wise and too good to be concerned. That is just speculation on my part. But he's been around a while with nothing to prove, and I highly suspect he will sit back and watch carefully as he takes it in. The tribe has an awful lot of good things ahead with their off-season acquisitions, but dont look for the vets to play more than 1 or 2 drives. A lot of gelling will need to take place this season, but I doubt Gibbs will be empasizing much in Canton. Just watching.
Having guessed on where Gibbs stands, here's where Shanahan stands:
MIKE SHANAHAN Pre-Season (9 years with Broncos)
GAMES: 39
SU RECORD: 28-11
ATS RECORD: 25-14
FIRST GAME: 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS
RECORD as DOG: 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS (has not been dog since '97)
RECORD AWAY FROM HOME: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS NEUTRAL; 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS
SINCE ELWAY RETIRED: 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS
NOTABLES:
*Shanahan's combined record for his first year w/Broncos, his first year after Elway's retirement, and both follow up years to his Superbowl Wins was 9-10 ATS. He is 16-4 ATS in the other 5 Seasons combined.
*Legendary former Bronco QB John Elway will enter Hall of Fame the night of the Game which presumably would be additional incentive for the young Broncos to perform.
*BRONCOS are 7-1 SU and ATS last four seasons away from home, the only loss being at Lambeau.
*BRONCOS are a perrenial SB contender this Season; Redskins are rebuilding.
With Shanahan being 9-0 SU in his pre-season openers, it's hard to go against him here; much less lay points to him. Just in case Gibbs is eager to win his first game back, and because so many pre-season games are decided by a FG, I would buy it to +3 -120...
*BRONCOS +3 -120 over Redskins
Don't forget the JULY EARLY BIRD SPECIAL is almost over for my Spread Report Online. At only 4 bucks per sheet, it's a steal.
For more info on my Football Online Tipsheet, check out the site or other threads of mine.
Be sure to check out my "Betting Systems for NFL & NCAA Foots" thread and my "NFL Blowout Formula Results" thread.
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
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