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NFL & NCAA FOOTBALL SYSTEMS AND TRENDS (all results are since 1990)
The thing about Football Trends, whether they are College or Pro, is to discern the ones that make sense and the ones that don't. We've all seen some of Marc Lawrence's trends that drive us batty. Nothing against Marc. Contrary to the criticism, he's a good capper.
But I mean some trends are like this: Miami Fla is 2-40 ATS when they lose SU. I won't insult your intelligence by even commenting on the uselessness of that trend.
Others are like this: The Steelers are 20-2 ATS at home vs .500< opponent off SU and ATS Win. To me, that makes sense and is a remarkable trend, but only because they have had the same coach over the duration of that time. Do you see the difference? If this TEAM trend were with any other team, I would question it.
But the Steelers have had the same coach for 12 years, which means that the bulk of that record is indicative of Bill Cowher and not so much a team's abberation. In his 12 years as coach, they have played 96 regular season home games. Assuming that at random 1/2 of those opponents were losing teams, then you have 48 possibilities.
Subsequently assuming that in 1/2 of those scenarios the visiting team lost SU/ATS the prior week, you're left with 24 possibilities--which is about the number of games that the trend indicates. In any event, the point is that one trend is usable (pit) and the other is not (mia fla).
But there are TEAM Trends and there are WHOLESALE Trends. While many wholesale trends can be about as useless as the Hurricanes example, in general a wholesale trend (that which applies to any/all teams) is more valuable and trustworthy. I don't like team trends unless they can be backed with some kind of logical thought process or reason.
Like passing teams having problems at the old Mile High Stadium in Denver or at the old Soldier's field in Chicago. Any team trends with the Bears or Broncos that could be logically explained by the wind in Chicago or atmosphere in Denver would be an applicable team trend. That's why the Rockies OVER/UNDER lines are so high at home and why they tend to go OVER. That's not an abberation; there is a logical reason behind it.
But most team trends are not worth anything unless the team trend time-span coincides with a particular Coach. Like Don Shula and the Dolphins. Going against him as a favorite vs NFC teams was a virtual lock for a very long time. Their was potential logic there to support the trend beyond a mere abberation.
Having laid that foundation, I will stick with the preferred and more useable wholesale trends in my thread here. Please bear with the occasional promo. I spend an aweful lot of time doing research and love every minute of it, but I also supplement my income with this stuff; so I'd be lying if I said that some of my research is not for promotional purposes. But hey, this is good stuff no matter the motive. Let's get to it...
System #1 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Road Dog if they are coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSS both SU AND ATS.
RECORD: 42-16 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 4.2
System #2 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog if they are coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN both SU and ATS and have won atleast 2 consecutive games SU.
RECORD: 33-12 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.3
System #3 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog with Revenge if coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSS.
RECORD: 30-15 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.2
System #4 (NFL)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog off two or more wins if they won SU last week as a Dog.
RECORD: 32-10 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.0
System #5 (NFL)
PLAY: Go AGAINST a Road Fave off two or more losses SU AND ATS if the lost straigt up last week as a fave.
RECORD: 32-16 ATS
AVG PLAYS PRE SEASON: 3.4
System #6 (NFL)
SETTING: Home team w/winning record vs opponent w/losing record
PLAY: Go with Home Favorite off a loss if playing with revenge
RECORD: 31-14
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.2
System #7 (NFL)
SETTING: Losing team on road in non-division game.
PLAY: Go WITH this Road Dog off two or more SU and ATS losses if they lost their last game by DOUBLE-DIGITS both SU and ATS.
RECORD: 38-23 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 4.4
System #8 (NFL)
PLAY: Go AGAINST a team that scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games and allowed 12 points or less in those same two games if they are now playing a non-division game.
RECORD: Lost records. Best memory is that it is 14-1 ATS or something like that over 20 years.
System #9 (NFL)
***Last year teams that allowed 220> yards rushing were 2-8 as faves and 8-2 as dogs the following week for a 16-4 record***
System #10 (NFL)
***Last year teams that were projected to lose the Net Yardage battle by 50> yards were 16-6 ATS in those games***
Do you purchase tipsheets throughout the season? Goldsheet? Pointwise? Phil Steele or Platimum? You've probably noticed that some of them are becoming more sophisticated and more expensive.
My Spread Report Online is simple yet contains a wealth of unique formula games that can only be found in the spread report. EXCLUSIVE formulas that I personally developed over the last few years like...
-My NFL Turnover Formula...a solid 60% Winners the last 3 Seasons
-My NFL Yardage Formula...109-63 ATS (63%) the last 3 years
-My all-new NFL Blowout Formula...28-5 ATS last Season and a perfect 12-0 ATS on its strictest criteria games...
...these faves averaged winning by over 25 points per game...now THAT'S a BLOWOUT!
Check it out:
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*PATRIOTS (-7) over Jaguars WIN 27-13
*STEELERS (-6') over Chargers WIN 40-24
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*STEELERS (-7) over Cardinals WIN 28-15
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
In addition to these BLOWOUTS, the formula can NAIL the DOGS too...with STRAIGHT UP WINNERS like...
*LIONS (+11') over Rams WIN 30-20
*RAIDERS (+6') over Ravens WIN 20-12
*LIONS (+7) over Packers WIN 22-14
*REDSKINS (+3') over Seahawks WIN 27-20
...and there were more. Altogether the NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA went 28-5 ATS.
Even more amazing is the fact that out of 33 Plays, 17 of them were either a BLOWOUT or a STRAIGHT UP Underdog Winner. That's pretty astounding when you consider the heightened competitiveness in the NFL over the last few seasons.
More overtime games and more field-goal games than ever before and yet my New Blowout Formula Picks an uncanny number of BLOWOUTS. There is a reason for that. It works. Interested? Read on...
The Online Tipsheet runs about 7 bucks per copy, but if you order the July Early Bird the price drops to 4 bucks per sheet.
It also includes my Top College and Pro Plays each Week along with my annual NFL Preview Edition which will include my predictions for Futures Plays, Division Winners, Conference Winners, and Superbowl Projections.
Unlike most sheets where 90% of the sheet is un-readable and un-useable, the Spread Report Online cuts to the chase without tedious, magnifying glass statistics. Every year the SRO has been full of winning info on one front or another. I expect a banner year this Season.
For more info, check out the site or check out any number of posts here at the forums. As always, thank you for your support...
Sincerely,
David K. Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990
The thing about Football Trends, whether they are College or Pro, is to discern the ones that make sense and the ones that don't. We've all seen some of Marc Lawrence's trends that drive us batty. Nothing against Marc. Contrary to the criticism, he's a good capper.
But I mean some trends are like this: Miami Fla is 2-40 ATS when they lose SU. I won't insult your intelligence by even commenting on the uselessness of that trend.
Others are like this: The Steelers are 20-2 ATS at home vs .500< opponent off SU and ATS Win. To me, that makes sense and is a remarkable trend, but only because they have had the same coach over the duration of that time. Do you see the difference? If this TEAM trend were with any other team, I would question it.
But the Steelers have had the same coach for 12 years, which means that the bulk of that record is indicative of Bill Cowher and not so much a team's abberation. In his 12 years as coach, they have played 96 regular season home games. Assuming that at random 1/2 of those opponents were losing teams, then you have 48 possibilities.
Subsequently assuming that in 1/2 of those scenarios the visiting team lost SU/ATS the prior week, you're left with 24 possibilities--which is about the number of games that the trend indicates. In any event, the point is that one trend is usable (pit) and the other is not (mia fla).
But there are TEAM Trends and there are WHOLESALE Trends. While many wholesale trends can be about as useless as the Hurricanes example, in general a wholesale trend (that which applies to any/all teams) is more valuable and trustworthy. I don't like team trends unless they can be backed with some kind of logical thought process or reason.
Like passing teams having problems at the old Mile High Stadium in Denver or at the old Soldier's field in Chicago. Any team trends with the Bears or Broncos that could be logically explained by the wind in Chicago or atmosphere in Denver would be an applicable team trend. That's why the Rockies OVER/UNDER lines are so high at home and why they tend to go OVER. That's not an abberation; there is a logical reason behind it.
But most team trends are not worth anything unless the team trend time-span coincides with a particular Coach. Like Don Shula and the Dolphins. Going against him as a favorite vs NFC teams was a virtual lock for a very long time. Their was potential logic there to support the trend beyond a mere abberation.
Having laid that foundation, I will stick with the preferred and more useable wholesale trends in my thread here. Please bear with the occasional promo. I spend an aweful lot of time doing research and love every minute of it, but I also supplement my income with this stuff; so I'd be lying if I said that some of my research is not for promotional purposes. But hey, this is good stuff no matter the motive. Let's get to it...
System #1 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Road Dog if they are coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSS both SU AND ATS.
RECORD: 42-16 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 4.2
System #2 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog if they are coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN both SU and ATS and have won atleast 2 consecutive games SU.
RECORD: 33-12 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.3
System #3 (NCAA)
SETTING: A Conference Matchup between Two Winning Teams (both more than .500)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog with Revenge if coming off a DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSS.
RECORD: 30-15 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.2
System #4 (NFL)
PLAY: Go WITH a Home Dog off two or more wins if they won SU last week as a Dog.
RECORD: 32-10 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.0
System #5 (NFL)
PLAY: Go AGAINST a Road Fave off two or more losses SU AND ATS if the lost straigt up last week as a fave.
RECORD: 32-16 ATS
AVG PLAYS PRE SEASON: 3.4
System #6 (NFL)
SETTING: Home team w/winning record vs opponent w/losing record
PLAY: Go with Home Favorite off a loss if playing with revenge
RECORD: 31-14
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 3.2
System #7 (NFL)
SETTING: Losing team on road in non-division game.
PLAY: Go WITH this Road Dog off two or more SU and ATS losses if they lost their last game by DOUBLE-DIGITS both SU and ATS.
RECORD: 38-23 ATS
AVG PLAYS PER SEASON: 4.4
System #8 (NFL)
PLAY: Go AGAINST a team that scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games and allowed 12 points or less in those same two games if they are now playing a non-division game.
RECORD: Lost records. Best memory is that it is 14-1 ATS or something like that over 20 years.
System #9 (NFL)
***Last year teams that allowed 220> yards rushing were 2-8 as faves and 8-2 as dogs the following week for a 16-4 record***
System #10 (NFL)
***Last year teams that were projected to lose the Net Yardage battle by 50> yards were 16-6 ATS in those games***
Do you purchase tipsheets throughout the season? Goldsheet? Pointwise? Phil Steele or Platimum? You've probably noticed that some of them are becoming more sophisticated and more expensive.
My Spread Report Online is simple yet contains a wealth of unique formula games that can only be found in the spread report. EXCLUSIVE formulas that I personally developed over the last few years like...
-My NFL Turnover Formula...a solid 60% Winners the last 3 Seasons
-My NFL Yardage Formula...109-63 ATS (63%) the last 3 years
-My all-new NFL Blowout Formula...28-5 ATS last Season and a perfect 12-0 ATS on its strictest criteria games...
...these faves averaged winning by over 25 points per game...now THAT'S a BLOWOUT!
Check it out:
*BROWNS (-6) over Cardinals WIN 44-6
*BRONCOS (-8) over Chargers WIN 37-8
*SEAHAWKS (-10') over Lions WIN 35-14
*COLTS (-7') over Falcons WIN 38-7
*PATRIOTS (-7) over Jaguars WIN 27-13
*STEELERS (-6') over Chargers WIN 40-24
*PACKERS (-9) over Broncos WIN 31-3
*VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks WIN 34-7
*STEELERS (-7) over Cardinals WIN 28-15
*BEARS (-4) over Cardinals WIN 28-3
*CHIEFS (-14') over Lions WIN 45-17
*TITANS (-6') over Bucs WIN 33-13
*SAINTS (-7) over Giants WIN 45-7
In addition to these BLOWOUTS, the formula can NAIL the DOGS too...with STRAIGHT UP WINNERS like...
*LIONS (+11') over Rams WIN 30-20
*RAIDERS (+6') over Ravens WIN 20-12
*LIONS (+7) over Packers WIN 22-14
*REDSKINS (+3') over Seahawks WIN 27-20
...and there were more. Altogether the NFL BLOWOUT FORMULA went 28-5 ATS.
Even more amazing is the fact that out of 33 Plays, 17 of them were either a BLOWOUT or a STRAIGHT UP Underdog Winner. That's pretty astounding when you consider the heightened competitiveness in the NFL over the last few seasons.
More overtime games and more field-goal games than ever before and yet my New Blowout Formula Picks an uncanny number of BLOWOUTS. There is a reason for that. It works. Interested? Read on...
The Online Tipsheet runs about 7 bucks per copy, but if you order the July Early Bird the price drops to 4 bucks per sheet.
It also includes my Top College and Pro Plays each Week along with my annual NFL Preview Edition which will include my predictions for Futures Plays, Division Winners, Conference Winners, and Superbowl Projections.
Unlike most sheets where 90% of the sheet is un-readable and un-useable, the Spread Report Online cuts to the chase without tedious, magnifying glass statistics. Every year the SRO has been full of winning info on one front or another. I expect a banner year this Season.
For more info, check out the site or check out any number of posts here at the forums. As always, thank you for your support...
Sincerely,
David K. Toop
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
[email protected]
228-424-6990
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