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Nov 16: BROWNS (-6) 44, Cardinals 6
Nov 16: BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8
Dec 14: COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7
Dec 28: PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3
Wow. Talk about Blowouts.
A few weeks ago I began my usual pre-season studies for new stuff. The results above are from a New Total Net Yardage Formula that I recently put to the test versus last year's NFL games. In it's strictest criteria category it produced a 6-0 mark, four of which are listest above. The other two games were Underdog Plays--both of which won straight up:
Nov 02: TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10
Dec 28: LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20
This is not to be confused with my original NFL Yardage Formula. My original formula is 109-63 ATS the last 3 years with a 3-year breakdown as follows:
2001: 48-18 ATS
2002: 38-23 ATS
2003: 23-22 ATS
As you can see, the original (63.4% last 3 seasons) is due for a rebound this year after last season's 23-22 mark. I like the formula, but it has some weaknesses. Namely, it does not consider strength of schedule. That being said, I still have no reservations about the original one; and I am still expecting a nice rebound this season.
In contrast, my New NFL Yardage Formula is quite different in structure and technique. It also incorporates strength of schedule. It's weakness--if you can call it that--is that it takes a full 6 games under the belt before it releases a game. The earliest a game could develop would be week seven. Frankly, I'm not even sure that could be considered a weakness.
What I want to point out in those four blowouts is the complete domination on the field in Total Yardage output--an indication that the Yardage Formula is getting the desired results:
Cleveland 481, Arizona 187
Denver 448, San Diego 96
Indianapolis 465, Atlanta 154
Green Bay 366, Denver 216
That is total and complete domination. I'm about as excited about this Yardage Formula as anything I've ever developed and am already sold on it because I know what it is made of.
In it's virgin form it is 31-14 ATS. The strictest criteria mentioned above is 6-0. The second strictest is 5-0. Taking away the 11-0 from the 31-14 leaves only a 20-14 record. It is notable that out of that 20-14 record, teams which have lost 4 or more games in a row are only 4-6, leaving a respectable 16-8 record, or 27-8 altogether.
There is also a flip-flop version with this formula. In it's virgin form it is 26-9 ATS. I have not done any further research regarding the flip flop version. I am still in the process of breaking down the New Yardage Formula game by game. What I can tell you is that I consider it the best thing that I have ever personally developed, and that I will be using it this season.
Another thing I'm excited about is to put it to the test in the College ranks. It will be tedious since I do all my work by hand, but I'm excited to see the results. Because of the concept behind the formula, I do not expect the differences between College and Pro Football, namely, parity vs non-parity, to be a factor.
In fact, if it can produce those kinda' blowouts in the Pros, I'm eager to see how it does with strong college teams fitting the same criteria. My original Yardage Formula is basicly useless in college, but I knew that ahead of time because I understand what it is made of. My new one is much different in structure and should work well because of its reasoning and its concept. We'll see.
The obvious drawback to the New Formula is the number of plays. Since it only picks games starting week 7, it would average 7 picks per week for the final 10 weeks if using the flip flop version too. In any event, I will keep the thread updated on my game by game breakdown of the NFL Picks and also on how it does in College.
If you want info on how to receive these games, check out the site.
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
Nov 16: BRONCOS (-8) 37, Chargers 8
Dec 14: COLTS (-7') 38, Falcons 7
Dec 28: PACKERS (-9) 31, Broncos 3
Wow. Talk about Blowouts.
A few weeks ago I began my usual pre-season studies for new stuff. The results above are from a New Total Net Yardage Formula that I recently put to the test versus last year's NFL games. In it's strictest criteria category it produced a 6-0 mark, four of which are listest above. The other two games were Underdog Plays--both of which won straight up:
Nov 02: TEXANS (+6') 14, Panthers 10
Dec 28: LIONS (+11') 30, Rams 20
This is not to be confused with my original NFL Yardage Formula. My original formula is 109-63 ATS the last 3 years with a 3-year breakdown as follows:
2001: 48-18 ATS
2002: 38-23 ATS
2003: 23-22 ATS
As you can see, the original (63.4% last 3 seasons) is due for a rebound this year after last season's 23-22 mark. I like the formula, but it has some weaknesses. Namely, it does not consider strength of schedule. That being said, I still have no reservations about the original one; and I am still expecting a nice rebound this season.
In contrast, my New NFL Yardage Formula is quite different in structure and technique. It also incorporates strength of schedule. It's weakness--if you can call it that--is that it takes a full 6 games under the belt before it releases a game. The earliest a game could develop would be week seven. Frankly, I'm not even sure that could be considered a weakness.
What I want to point out in those four blowouts is the complete domination on the field in Total Yardage output--an indication that the Yardage Formula is getting the desired results:
Cleveland 481, Arizona 187
Denver 448, San Diego 96
Indianapolis 465, Atlanta 154
Green Bay 366, Denver 216
That is total and complete domination. I'm about as excited about this Yardage Formula as anything I've ever developed and am already sold on it because I know what it is made of.
In it's virgin form it is 31-14 ATS. The strictest criteria mentioned above is 6-0. The second strictest is 5-0. Taking away the 11-0 from the 31-14 leaves only a 20-14 record. It is notable that out of that 20-14 record, teams which have lost 4 or more games in a row are only 4-6, leaving a respectable 16-8 record, or 27-8 altogether.
There is also a flip-flop version with this formula. In it's virgin form it is 26-9 ATS. I have not done any further research regarding the flip flop version. I am still in the process of breaking down the New Yardage Formula game by game. What I can tell you is that I consider it the best thing that I have ever personally developed, and that I will be using it this season.
Another thing I'm excited about is to put it to the test in the College ranks. It will be tedious since I do all my work by hand, but I'm excited to see the results. Because of the concept behind the formula, I do not expect the differences between College and Pro Football, namely, parity vs non-parity, to be a factor.
In fact, if it can produce those kinda' blowouts in the Pros, I'm eager to see how it does with strong college teams fitting the same criteria. My original Yardage Formula is basicly useless in college, but I knew that ahead of time because I understand what it is made of. My new one is much different in structure and should work well because of its reasoning and its concept. We'll see.
The obvious drawback to the New Formula is the number of plays. Since it only picks games starting week 7, it would average 7 picks per week for the final 10 weeks if using the flip flop version too. In any event, I will keep the thread updated on my game by game breakdown of the NFL Picks and also on how it does in College.
If you want info on how to receive these games, check out the site.
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com