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Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 3
DEPTH - One of the biggest factors in preseason handicapping is each team's depth at the most important positions. Look first at teams deep in the quarterback and running back position. For example, a few years back, the Denver Broncos had Brian Griese starting, Steve Beurlein and Gus Frerotte battling for the backup position. These were players that were starters for other teams. That gave them a huge edge when playing in the latter stages of a preseason game. The Broncos also had the luxury of having three 1,000 rushers on their team, so they were extremely deep in a position that was important when it pertained to the second half. During the regular season, we could not care less about teams' fourth string QBs. Not so in preseason. Our fate may very well be in the hands of a player who will not see a single snap during the regular season. For PRO INFO SPORTS clients, this is actually a huge advantage, since while everyone and their brother know how good the starters are; there are very few that know or care to take into consideration the quality of 3rd and 4th stringers.
Some teams have a well-established quarterback and a well-established running back, but they might be shopping for new offensive linemen. This condition often signals good value in going against such a team. This coach figures to use a backup quarterback, rather than risk his starter. After all, why risk your best quarterback behind inexperienced linemen who are trying out for a job? Same with his A-1 running back. Consequently, this situation presents us with untried rookie linemen trying to protect a second string quarterback and trying to open holes for a second-string running back. It's obviously a good circumstance for PRO INFO SPORTS to advise a "play-against" investment.
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 2
QB ROTATION - A key ingredient for PRO INFO SPORTS wagering success in the preseason is the quarterback rotation used by each team, how long a signal caller will play, and in what quarter(s). Teams with established QBs tend to play less in the preseason due to the possibility of injury with the bulk of the action shared by the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers. We focus on teams that have experience and solid depth at QB as well as teams that have intense competition for the starting and backup positions. One excellent proposition happens when a coach must decide between two potential starting quarterbacks. In order to compare the two candidates the coach is likely to use all his first string offense longer than usual - including his best receivers, best running backs, and best offensive linemen. You can also figure both quarterbacks want that starting job, so both are likely to play their best behind that first string. The situation is intensified if the other team, strangely enough, is an extra good defensive team. An opposing team with locked-in starters on their defense is very likely to be auditioning new defensive talent. After a brief "tune-up" period for his defensive starters, the opposing coach is likely to pull his "A" players. That leaves a bunch of try-out defensive players facing a first-string offense and a hungry, talented quarterback. PRO INFO SPORTS also isolates situations in which an experienced QB is matched up against a rookie or one with little NFL playing time under his belt.
A team that is starting a hot or capable rookie quarterback who is fighting for a job or a high draft pick with solid collegiate credentials certainly gets our attention. Even if such a QB comes in for the second half he may find easy pickings versus an opposing defense loaded with third and fourth stringers. The first game of the 2003 preseason illustrated such a case with the American Bowl in Japan between the New York Jets and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers had a clear edge in the expected quarterback rotation since neither teams' starters were expected to play long. It was clear the backups would decide the contest and the Buccaneers had veteran Shaun King and highly-touted rookie Chris Sims while the Jets were going to go most of the game with unheralded rookie Brooks Bollinger. Simms had a strong game while Bollinger committed a costly turnover as the Bucs romped 30-14 and PRO INFO SPORTS clients enjoyed a winning side selection with Tampa Bay. In another example from last year we provided the following for our clients:
San Diego E over HOUSTON
Two squads still searching for their first preseason win take the field at Reliant Stadium on Saturday, when the Houston Texans host the San Diego Chargers. San Diego lost a 16-10 decision to the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium last week after losing their opener in Seattle. Houston is looking for answers after being embarrassed, 34-6, by in-state rival Dallas last week.
Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer doesn't expect to do anything dramatically different this week regarding his substitution pattern, but against the Texans he shouldn't have to. Houston's starters will also see limited time. THE BIG EDGE FOR SAN DIEGO IS THEIR QB ROTATION with Drew Brees and Doug Flutie leading the way. Houston's David Carr is only expected to play 20-25 snaps before giving way to Tony Banks, Mike Quinn, and the rookie Dave Ragone, none of whom has been impressive this summer...
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: SAN DIEGO 19 HOUSTON 17
We also keep an eye on teams that have signed QBs from NFL-Europe. These QBs have some pro game experience and are more mature than raw rookies entering the fray for the first time. Rohan Davey, for example, had a tremendous season in Europe this year and, when teamed with Super Bowl-MVP Tom Brady, will provide New England with an awesome 1-2 QB punch.
Other QB situations that will have our careful consideration this preseason include Rich Gannon/Kerry Collins in Oakland, Drew Brees/Philip Rivers/Doug Flutie in San Diego, Tommy Maddox/Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna in Cincinnati, Jay Fiedler/A.J Feeley in Miami, Tim Rattay/Ken Dorsey/Brandon Doman/Cody Pickett in San Francisco, Brad Johnson/Chris Simms/Brian Griese in Tampa Bay, Mark Brunell/Patrick Ramsey in Washington, Kurt Warner/Eli Manning in New York (Giants), and Quincy Carter/Drew Henson/Chad Hutchinson/Vinny Testaverde in Dallas.
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 1
COACHING - The first and main consideration in handicapping the NFL Preseason for PRO INFO SPORTS is the coach of each team. Unlike the regular season, this is the strongest single factor in determining what will happen on the field. The coach decides who plays and for how long. The primary goal of a coach during preseason is not necessarily to win the game, although some coaches want to win to establish a winning attitude. The primary goal of a coach in preseason is to get ready to win in the regular season. New coaches with young teams tend to work very hard in the preseason and look to win. Older teams with veteran coaches tend to give their future talent a closer look and don't care as much about the outcome of the game. Teams with a tradition of winning in the regular season normally don't put too much stock in winning their preseason games, particularly when playing an inferior or younger team that might be "gunning" for them.
A veteran coach secure in his job and coming of a fairly successful season with stable personnel might be expected to not be overly zealous in attempting to win his preseason games, especially in the first week or two. That may change, however, as the preseason wears on and the coach gears up the team for the regular season. This is especially true if his team happens to take the first several games very lightly and loses them both outright. A different sort of veteran coach is one whose team is coming off an unsuccessful season and whose job is rumored to be in jeopardy. Such a coach may go all out in the preseason to win a few games and appease ownership, media, and fans, at least temporarily. He may be tempted to play his first unit longer in an attempt to get them ready for the regular season. Such a coach tends to be more dangerous early in the preseason, especially against a team coached by a veteran coach that may have given the other team some extra incentive to play hard against them and try to come up with a victory. The opposite of the veteran coach is the newcomer or rookie coach. Such neophytes almost always try to impress and win games in the preseason in order to build their own confidence and the confidence of their team. A new coach is often in a honeymoon period with his team and so the team will play harder, even in the preseason game, if he asks. Later on when the regular season begins and everyone is playing hard and up for the games it will be more difficult for a new coach to win but during the preseason rookie coaches bear watching.
Coaches also tend to place emphasis on winning during certain weeks of the four-week preseason schedule. Some will use Week Three as their "dress rehearsal" for the regular season giving his starters extended playing time and then resting them in Week Four. Others focus on Week Four to instill a winning attitude and establish positive momentum for the upcoming season. Checking coaches SU/ATS records overall, in home/road games, as a favorite/underdog, after a win/loss, and in each week of the preseason can reveal some very profitable situations.
An excellent sports investment opportunity often exists for PRO INFO SPORTS clients when we isolate preseason games where one coach cares and the other could not care less. Last year we took advantage of coaching differences on numerous occassions. For example:
Tennessee -1 1/2 over CINCINNATI
The Tennessee Titans face their second former AFC Central foe in three preseason games Saturday night, when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Tennessee began the preseason with a win over ex-Central division rival Cleveland and followed it up with an impressive 37-24 victory over Buffalo last week. Cincinnati got into the preseason win column with a 23-10 victory over Detroit at home last week as rookie QB Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a pair of third quarter touchdowns in his home debut. Marvin Lewis picked up his first win as a head coach at any level.
When Titans QB Neil O'Donnell plays, it gives Tennessee one of the deepest QB rotations in the league. O'Donnell was held out last week but will be back behind center vs. the Bengals. Of course the starter is Steve McNair who has looked very impressive in the pre-season. We also know that coach Jeff Fisher expects the starters to play far more in the final two preseason games than they did in the first two. As he has routinely done in the preseason, Fisher will play the regulars through halftime and into the third quarter against the Bengals this week.
Expect to see more of rookie Carson Palmer for Cincinnati, following Jon Kitna. While the Titan starters will play into the second half, Lewis will have Bengal back-ups on the field before the break, giving Tennessee a decided advantage.
...With minimal points to give away, we have a strong selection here on Tennessee to win and cover this low number.
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 23 CINCINNATI 15
This is the kind of information, analysis, and advice provided by PRO INFO SPORTS for our clients.
Next, in Handicapping the NFL Preseason, Part 3 will cover TEAM DEPTH.
NOW is the time to join our winning team and take advantage of our JULY SPECIAL:
* PURCHASE the NFL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for $179.95 and get the NCAA FOOTBALL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for FREE - a SAVINGS of $135!
* PURCHASE the NFL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT & POWERePORT for $224.95 and get the NCAA FOOTBALL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for FREE - also a SAVINGS of $135!
* Get the NFL Pre-Season FREE with any SEASON E-LERT or POWER SYSTEM package!
This special is for JULY ONLY and will expire at Midnight PDT on July 31, 2004. SIGN UP NOW!
* If you want to try us for the NFL Preseason only before signing up for the rest of the season you can get EVERY Preseason selection via the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for only $44.95.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
The PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT FREE-LERT features a sample of the in-depth information, analysis, and advice available from PRO INFO SPORTS with complimentary selections. If you would like to join the FREE-LERT e-mailing list, simply send us a note at:
[email protected]
For ALL of our client selections, subscribe to the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT via PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS. E-LERTS are issued the day prior to all football games and detail each Money Play and opinion with comprehensive information, analysis and advice.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
PRO INFO SPORTS Publications presents the most POWERful handicapping tool available - The 2004 NFL POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA - with 400 computer-researched and documented 90%-100% ATS POWER SYSTEMS for every situation throughout the NFL season. It's offered as an e-BOOK, on CD-ROM, or via subscription to the POWERePORT from PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
INVEST with the BEST. JOIN the PRO INFO SPORTS team TODAY and start winning TONIGHT!
DEPTH - One of the biggest factors in preseason handicapping is each team's depth at the most important positions. Look first at teams deep in the quarterback and running back position. For example, a few years back, the Denver Broncos had Brian Griese starting, Steve Beurlein and Gus Frerotte battling for the backup position. These were players that were starters for other teams. That gave them a huge edge when playing in the latter stages of a preseason game. The Broncos also had the luxury of having three 1,000 rushers on their team, so they were extremely deep in a position that was important when it pertained to the second half. During the regular season, we could not care less about teams' fourth string QBs. Not so in preseason. Our fate may very well be in the hands of a player who will not see a single snap during the regular season. For PRO INFO SPORTS clients, this is actually a huge advantage, since while everyone and their brother know how good the starters are; there are very few that know or care to take into consideration the quality of 3rd and 4th stringers.
Some teams have a well-established quarterback and a well-established running back, but they might be shopping for new offensive linemen. This condition often signals good value in going against such a team. This coach figures to use a backup quarterback, rather than risk his starter. After all, why risk your best quarterback behind inexperienced linemen who are trying out for a job? Same with his A-1 running back. Consequently, this situation presents us with untried rookie linemen trying to protect a second string quarterback and trying to open holes for a second-string running back. It's obviously a good circumstance for PRO INFO SPORTS to advise a "play-against" investment.
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 2
QB ROTATION - A key ingredient for PRO INFO SPORTS wagering success in the preseason is the quarterback rotation used by each team, how long a signal caller will play, and in what quarter(s). Teams with established QBs tend to play less in the preseason due to the possibility of injury with the bulk of the action shared by the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers. We focus on teams that have experience and solid depth at QB as well as teams that have intense competition for the starting and backup positions. One excellent proposition happens when a coach must decide between two potential starting quarterbacks. In order to compare the two candidates the coach is likely to use all his first string offense longer than usual - including his best receivers, best running backs, and best offensive linemen. You can also figure both quarterbacks want that starting job, so both are likely to play their best behind that first string. The situation is intensified if the other team, strangely enough, is an extra good defensive team. An opposing team with locked-in starters on their defense is very likely to be auditioning new defensive talent. After a brief "tune-up" period for his defensive starters, the opposing coach is likely to pull his "A" players. That leaves a bunch of try-out defensive players facing a first-string offense and a hungry, talented quarterback. PRO INFO SPORTS also isolates situations in which an experienced QB is matched up against a rookie or one with little NFL playing time under his belt.
A team that is starting a hot or capable rookie quarterback who is fighting for a job or a high draft pick with solid collegiate credentials certainly gets our attention. Even if such a QB comes in for the second half he may find easy pickings versus an opposing defense loaded with third and fourth stringers. The first game of the 2003 preseason illustrated such a case with the American Bowl in Japan between the New York Jets and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers had a clear edge in the expected quarterback rotation since neither teams' starters were expected to play long. It was clear the backups would decide the contest and the Buccaneers had veteran Shaun King and highly-touted rookie Chris Sims while the Jets were going to go most of the game with unheralded rookie Brooks Bollinger. Simms had a strong game while Bollinger committed a costly turnover as the Bucs romped 30-14 and PRO INFO SPORTS clients enjoyed a winning side selection with Tampa Bay. In another example from last year we provided the following for our clients:
San Diego E over HOUSTON
Two squads still searching for their first preseason win take the field at Reliant Stadium on Saturday, when the Houston Texans host the San Diego Chargers. San Diego lost a 16-10 decision to the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium last week after losing their opener in Seattle. Houston is looking for answers after being embarrassed, 34-6, by in-state rival Dallas last week.
Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer doesn't expect to do anything dramatically different this week regarding his substitution pattern, but against the Texans he shouldn't have to. Houston's starters will also see limited time. THE BIG EDGE FOR SAN DIEGO IS THEIR QB ROTATION with Drew Brees and Doug Flutie leading the way. Houston's David Carr is only expected to play 20-25 snaps before giving way to Tony Banks, Mike Quinn, and the rookie Dave Ragone, none of whom has been impressive this summer...
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: SAN DIEGO 19 HOUSTON 17
We also keep an eye on teams that have signed QBs from NFL-Europe. These QBs have some pro game experience and are more mature than raw rookies entering the fray for the first time. Rohan Davey, for example, had a tremendous season in Europe this year and, when teamed with Super Bowl-MVP Tom Brady, will provide New England with an awesome 1-2 QB punch.
Other QB situations that will have our careful consideration this preseason include Rich Gannon/Kerry Collins in Oakland, Drew Brees/Philip Rivers/Doug Flutie in San Diego, Tommy Maddox/Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna in Cincinnati, Jay Fiedler/A.J Feeley in Miami, Tim Rattay/Ken Dorsey/Brandon Doman/Cody Pickett in San Francisco, Brad Johnson/Chris Simms/Brian Griese in Tampa Bay, Mark Brunell/Patrick Ramsey in Washington, Kurt Warner/Eli Manning in New York (Giants), and Quincy Carter/Drew Henson/Chad Hutchinson/Vinny Testaverde in Dallas.
Handicapping the NFL Preseason - Part 1
COACHING - The first and main consideration in handicapping the NFL Preseason for PRO INFO SPORTS is the coach of each team. Unlike the regular season, this is the strongest single factor in determining what will happen on the field. The coach decides who plays and for how long. The primary goal of a coach during preseason is not necessarily to win the game, although some coaches want to win to establish a winning attitude. The primary goal of a coach in preseason is to get ready to win in the regular season. New coaches with young teams tend to work very hard in the preseason and look to win. Older teams with veteran coaches tend to give their future talent a closer look and don't care as much about the outcome of the game. Teams with a tradition of winning in the regular season normally don't put too much stock in winning their preseason games, particularly when playing an inferior or younger team that might be "gunning" for them.
A veteran coach secure in his job and coming of a fairly successful season with stable personnel might be expected to not be overly zealous in attempting to win his preseason games, especially in the first week or two. That may change, however, as the preseason wears on and the coach gears up the team for the regular season. This is especially true if his team happens to take the first several games very lightly and loses them both outright. A different sort of veteran coach is one whose team is coming off an unsuccessful season and whose job is rumored to be in jeopardy. Such a coach may go all out in the preseason to win a few games and appease ownership, media, and fans, at least temporarily. He may be tempted to play his first unit longer in an attempt to get them ready for the regular season. Such a coach tends to be more dangerous early in the preseason, especially against a team coached by a veteran coach that may have given the other team some extra incentive to play hard against them and try to come up with a victory. The opposite of the veteran coach is the newcomer or rookie coach. Such neophytes almost always try to impress and win games in the preseason in order to build their own confidence and the confidence of their team. A new coach is often in a honeymoon period with his team and so the team will play harder, even in the preseason game, if he asks. Later on when the regular season begins and everyone is playing hard and up for the games it will be more difficult for a new coach to win but during the preseason rookie coaches bear watching.
Coaches also tend to place emphasis on winning during certain weeks of the four-week preseason schedule. Some will use Week Three as their "dress rehearsal" for the regular season giving his starters extended playing time and then resting them in Week Four. Others focus on Week Four to instill a winning attitude and establish positive momentum for the upcoming season. Checking coaches SU/ATS records overall, in home/road games, as a favorite/underdog, after a win/loss, and in each week of the preseason can reveal some very profitable situations.
An excellent sports investment opportunity often exists for PRO INFO SPORTS clients when we isolate preseason games where one coach cares and the other could not care less. Last year we took advantage of coaching differences on numerous occassions. For example:
Tennessee -1 1/2 over CINCINNATI
The Tennessee Titans face their second former AFC Central foe in three preseason games Saturday night, when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Tennessee began the preseason with a win over ex-Central division rival Cleveland and followed it up with an impressive 37-24 victory over Buffalo last week. Cincinnati got into the preseason win column with a 23-10 victory over Detroit at home last week as rookie QB Carson Palmer led the Bengals to a pair of third quarter touchdowns in his home debut. Marvin Lewis picked up his first win as a head coach at any level.
When Titans QB Neil O'Donnell plays, it gives Tennessee one of the deepest QB rotations in the league. O'Donnell was held out last week but will be back behind center vs. the Bengals. Of course the starter is Steve McNair who has looked very impressive in the pre-season. We also know that coach Jeff Fisher expects the starters to play far more in the final two preseason games than they did in the first two. As he has routinely done in the preseason, Fisher will play the regulars through halftime and into the third quarter against the Bengals this week.
Expect to see more of rookie Carson Palmer for Cincinnati, following Jon Kitna. While the Titan starters will play into the second half, Lewis will have Bengal back-ups on the field before the break, giving Tennessee a decided advantage.
...With minimal points to give away, we have a strong selection here on Tennessee to win and cover this low number.
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 23 CINCINNATI 15
This is the kind of information, analysis, and advice provided by PRO INFO SPORTS for our clients.
Next, in Handicapping the NFL Preseason, Part 3 will cover TEAM DEPTH.
NOW is the time to join our winning team and take advantage of our JULY SPECIAL:
* PURCHASE the NFL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for $179.95 and get the NCAA FOOTBALL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for FREE - a SAVINGS of $135!
* PURCHASE the NFL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT & POWERePORT for $224.95 and get the NCAA FOOTBALL SEASON GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for FREE - also a SAVINGS of $135!
* Get the NFL Pre-Season FREE with any SEASON E-LERT or POWER SYSTEM package!
This special is for JULY ONLY and will expire at Midnight PDT on July 31, 2004. SIGN UP NOW!
* If you want to try us for the NFL Preseason only before signing up for the rest of the season you can get EVERY Preseason selection via the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT for only $44.95.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
The PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT FREE-LERT features a sample of the in-depth information, analysis, and advice available from PRO INFO SPORTS with complimentary selections. If you would like to join the FREE-LERT e-mailing list, simply send us a note at:
[email protected]
For ALL of our client selections, subscribe to the PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT via PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS. E-LERTS are issued the day prior to all football games and detail each Money Play and opinion with comprehensive information, analysis and advice.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
PRO INFO SPORTS Publications presents the most POWERful handicapping tool available - The 2004 NFL POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA - with 400 computer-researched and documented 90%-100% ATS POWER SYSTEMS for every situation throughout the NFL season. It's offered as an e-BOOK, on CD-ROM, or via subscription to the POWERePORT from PRO INFO SPORTS SERVICES & PRODUCTS.
http://www.proinfosports.com/ServProd.0.html
INVEST with the BEST. JOIN the PRO INFO SPORTS team TODAY and start winning TONIGHT!
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