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NFL Pre-Season Preview
Last year during the off-season I was convinced that the Jets would be a Superbowl Contender--a belief subscribed to largely in part because of the rise of Chad Pennington. Then came the Redskin's drive-by, and the Jets looked violated. But breaking it down, my only real concern was the loss of WR Laveranues Coles. So I eagerly waited for the Jet's Japan Bowl against the defending Champion Tampa Bay Bucs to watch closely.
My belief prior to the Japan Bowl was that, overall, the loss of Coles would not be a huge factor; that Curtis Conway would be sufficient enough of a replacement although, admittedly, not the game breaker Coles was. With Moss on the other side, I did not feel that the grim predictions made by the experts were as dreadful as they made it sound. I still had the Jets pegged as SB contenders even after the Washington debacle. I was confident in my assertion. Confident enough to post what I expected in the Japan Bowl...
"Look for Pennington to go deep to Conway early and often to allay the concerns of Critics and Fans alike."
Lo. Behold. On their second play from scrimmage Pennington aired it deep to Conway. Complete for 68 yards. Pennington led the Jets on an opening drive of 4 plays and a TD against the starting players of the Buc's Number One defense. Just like that. The game wasn't five minutes old and I had seen all I needed to see. The Jets remained my choice in the AFC to go Bowling.
Unfortunately, Pennington suffered a pre-season injury. With that injury came my search for different team to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. I eventually landed on the side of the New England Patriots as my choice, a successful prediction outdone only by the fact that I also correctly predicted the Carolina Panthers to represent the NFC in the Superbowl.
My call on the Panthers was one of the more remarkable calls in my 25-year handicapping career, but not the first head-scratcher of mine. Other calls would include...
The Titans would make a SB run in '99. Five years later and retrospectively on this side of that prediction it does not seem like much. But consider that Fisher had been with the team five years at the time and his best season was 8-8.
The Ravens would make a run in 2000. Listen up non-believers in Pre-Season. This prediction was made largely in part by what I saw in PRE-SEASON! Pre-Season also SOLIDIFIED my take on last year's Panthers! I had my eye on the Panthers, but Pre-Season made up my mind. Don't believe for one second that Pre-Season means nothing.
To start, teams that go winless in pre-season do not make the playoffs. Teams that go undefeated in pre-season go to the playoffs. Pre-Season helped me to discern 7 OVER/UNDER Team Wins Futures Plays last Season--all of which Won. Seven-zip. A team's defensive execution during pre-season says an awful lot also if you know what you're looking for.
The gist of my opening statements here [in what will be an on-going and potentially ever-changing] analysis of the upcoming NFL Season is three-fold: One, to establish my credentials. Two, what I'm posting here in July is not necessarily my FINAL ANALYSIS. My final analysis will come out in my NFL Preview Issue between the final Pre-Season game and the first Regular Season Game. It will not appear at the forum but in the Spread Report Online (elaboration at proper forum). And three, PRE-SEASON MATTERS!
Having cited those two points above, I'll start off this Year's NFL Pre-Season Preview by posting (pasting) an EXACT REPLICA of my NFL Pre-view from last season AS POSTED RIGHT HERE at this forum under the username 'FootballFormula' (feel free to do a search). This paste is complete minus the promotion...
THE FOLLOWING NFL PRE-VIEW WAS POSTED AT THIS SITE ON AUGUST 26, 2003:
Okay it's time. I've seen enough. I had some early indications of who I would be liking this season, and from the looks of Pre-Season, I won't be disappointed.
Some of you will remember my NFL Preview a few years ago when I projected the Titans to be the most improved team in the league. That article was posted at ********* and also published in playersedge mag. They went to the Superbowl that season.
I followed by projecting the Ravens to be the most improved team in the leaque, and they too went to the Superbowl that season. Too bad it didn't always happen that way; but for atleast those two times it did.
If you're really an old timer, you will remember a projection I made in the early 90's when the Cowboys went 1-15:
"Some how the League has allowed the Cowboys to amass perhaps the biggest steal in NFL History with the Vikings-Hershel Walker fiasco. Well they will regret it. Expect the Cowboys to be the team of the 90's. They will win four Superbowls and atleast 2 of them back-to-back; if not three."
And, of course, those closest to me cannot forget my call on the Broncos-Packers Superbowl:
"The Broncos (12-point dogs) will break the NFC win Streak and win the game straight up. It will be close--perhaps the first overtime game in SB history. I figure the final to be 30-24 Denver in OT."
Final: 31-24 Denver as they scored late to break a 24-24 tie and avoid OT. Okay. Enough bragging. Let's get to it...
During the off-Season, I've been really high on the Jets. I feel they have all they need to win a Superbowl. They have a QB who is not only efficient but extremely cool under pressure. Sophmore jinx? Forget about it. Rookie QB's coming off record seasons (eg, magic Majkowski, Packers) often suffer Sophmore jinx's because they become invinsible in their minds. The difference with Pennington is that he spent a couple years on the bench and learned.
Next the Jets have the coach. The days of the Jets folding when the spotlight is on them, well, those days are over. Herman Edwards is not Rich Kotite. He's the real deal and you will see. Those were my thoughts during the off-season. But then came the blue light special they granted the Redskins. All the critices came out. Even magazines are picking them to finish last or third in the AFC East--and that was BEFORE Pennington's injury. For sure now the whole knowledgable football world will discount the Jets.
In fact, the overreaction has gotten so rediculous, the Jets are now a 3-point dog to the Redskins. What? Folks, the Jets are a legitimate Superbowl Contender. When you break down the players that they traded to the Skins, you'll find the most significant one to be WR Coles.
Well, I took the liberty to make sure I was awake to watch the opening drive of the Japan Bowl in the wee hours of the morning when the Bucs and Jets played their 1st pre-season game. I've could've written the script:
"Expect the Jets to silence their critics by going to Curtis Conway (Cole's replacement) early, often, and deep."
Pennington came out cool, hitting Conway for a short completion on the Jets first play from scrimmage. Two plays later, he hit Conway deep for about a 40-yard gain. And before it was all over, Penny and the Jets had completed 4 of 4 for 67 yards and a TD against the Bucs starting defense. No signs of sophmore jinx's or jitters, and a sigh of relief for Yorkers who wondered if Conway could fill the shoes.
Defense? The Jets defense improved over 100 yards per game their final 11 games versus their first five games last season. Now, what about Vinny? Can he do it? Hey, I'll admit I'm going with a bit of a hunch here, but I've got a very strong feeling that Vinny T is in for a record season for his career. I think he was much inspired by the success of Pennington last season--whom he humbly aided and supported on the sidelines without complaint.
Watch out for the Jets. You can bank'em in their opener at Washington. The Jets are so far better than the Redskins its not even funny. Watch the Jets--watch Edwards have another great season in the face of adversity. The Dolphins couldn't get to the playoffs despite being in the top 3 in eleven key statistical categories last season. The Bills will be improved on defense but don't yet realize how much they're gonna miss Peerless Price, and the Patriots, well, they're SB contenders as well--another key team to watch, and especially in underdog roles.
Now, having said all that (and I still believe it), there is one other team that I am even more excited about, and they are my choice for MOST IMPROVED TEAM OF THE YEAR. If they follow suit like the Titans and Ravens a couple years ago, they could end up in the Superbowl. And don't laugh, because at the time of my Baltimore projection, it was equally laughable--but it happened.
And right now with this team, you can get back 8-1 to win their division, 35-1 to win their conference, and 75-1 to win the Superbowl. To give you an idea of how seemingly laughable my choice is, the only teams with higher odds to win the SB are the Lions, Cardinals, Bengals, and Texans. My choice this year to be most improved in the NFL, the most underrated team and biggest sleeper is...
The Carolina Panthers
#2 in defense last season, they will be #1 this year. John Fox took them from 1-15 to 7-9 in his first year. He is a solid, fundamentals, textbook, no-nonsense coach. Randy Moss wouldn't last 4 hours on Fox's Panthers Squad on a good day. During the off-season the Panthers beefed up the offensive line, acquired Stephen Davis, Ricky Proehl, Kevin Dyson, and Jake Delhomme who showed promise in place of Arron Brooks last year with the Saints.
Rodney Peete complete 58% of his passes last season and has a stronger OL this year and Delhomme to back him up. Dyson is injured but that won't matter because (a.) Panthers are deep at the position, and (b.) they are primarily a running, clock burning team. Fundamentals. Bank it. You hear it here first:
THE CAROLINA PANTHERS WILL RAISE EYEBROWS THIS SEASON WITH THEIR UNGODLY DEFENSE AND SLOW BURNING, BALL CONTROL OFFENSE.
EXPECT THEM TO MIX IN JUST ENOUGH MUHAMMAD, MANGUM, AND PROEHL TO KEEP THE LANES OPEN FOR DAVIS.
Bank it. Week One:
Jets +3 over REDSKINS
PANTHERS -3.5 over the "trying to trade our Veteran QB with less than two weeks before kickoff" Jaguars.
Man, can you imagine? What does that do to team morale and continuity? At this point it doesn't matter who starts for the Jags. If they start Brunnel, I'm not sure he'll be up to par in view of this late attempt at a trade. And if they don't, the Panther's defense will eat their lunch with Garrard, Gray, or Leftwich at the helm.
Other Week One thoughts:
Ravens +6 over STEELERS (plus six with this coach automatic)
Colts +1' over BROWNS (Browns D having probs; Colts D much improved; Indy ready to make run)
SEATTLE -3 over Saints (Saints got head problems; Seahawks HUGE sleeper)
Futures I like:
To Win SB:
Eagles 9-1
Jets 15-1
Titans 20-1
Chiefs 25-1
Pats 35-1
Ravens 40-1
Seahawks 50-1
Vikings 50-1
Panthers 75-1
To Win AFC:
Jets 8-1
Titans 8-1
Chiefs 12-1
Pats 11-1
Ravens 16-1
To Win NFC:
Eagles 4-1
Seahawks 20-1
Vikings 22-1
Panthers 35-1
To Win Division:
Panters 8-1
Over/Under Season Wins:
Titans OVER 9.5 -125
Browns UNDER 8.5 -175
Patriots OVER 8.5 -150
Panthers OVER 7.5 -110
Seahawks OVER 7.5 -200
AFC East:
New England: Could make run for bowl. Still basic team that won it all two years ago. Beefed up defense looking solid in pre-season.
Jets: Jets are for real, should get wild card behind Pats.
Miami: Very strong team just got stronger with veteran defensive help that they didn't even need. Should be Wannstedt's last year if this team does not make the Superbowl; and I doubt they will. Much like Bucs; got the team, need the coach.
Bills: They're gonna miss Price.
AFC North:
Ravens: Look for them to win the North. Defense back in the saddle, and as they proved with Dilfer at the helm, it can be done.
Steelers: Two years ago this was the best team in the AFC hands down. The longer they go on winning without making the big one (again), the harder its getting for them to believe. Just ask Denny Green and his former Vikings.
Bengals: Kitna actually started looking like an NFL QB last season. We'll see. Should edge out the Browns.
Browns: Much as I like Davis and what he's got going on in Cleveland, somebody's gotta be the worst. With the heightened competitiveness this season, Cleveland could be worst in the league unless they gel and solve their defensive woes.
AFC South:
Tennessee: Could be overall best, well-balanced and well-coached team in the league; with fairly recent SB trip, they have the confidence to return. Loss of Wycheck shouldn't hurt too bad in long run. Titans will be a contender again.
Colts: As much as I like Dungy, I'm not sure he's the answer. Sure, they'll rack up some wins and a possible wildcard, but then what?
Houston:
I'll go ahead and move Houston up ahead of the Jags for no other reason than the bonehead decision to market Brunnel 1 1/2 weeks before kickoff. Texans actually pretty decent defense and very well coached. With any improvement on offense and they could be a nice spread killer in dog roles.
Jags: Okay, let's see. It's 1st and goal on the two, the game is still up for grabs, and there's less than 4 mintues remaining. Your team is the Dallas Cowboys last year. Hmmmm. After running Emmit 1 time for 1 1/2 yards, Campo chose to pass 3 times for incompletions on the 1/2 yard line. That's bonehead call #2 from last season, taking back seat to Marty Mornhinweg's decision to "kick" after they won the coin toss in overtime. And now, for the first bonehead call of the current season, the Jags market Brunnel less than 2 weeks before kick off. Don't look now, but their season could be over before it begins.
AFC West:
Chiefs: What is it with Vermeil and his offenses? I mean, I don't the 1980 Eagles being this prolific. Really. First the 1999 Rams and now the 2002 Chiefs. All this team needs is to step it up on defense just a very slight bit, and, hey, they're actually a SB contender if they score like the scored last year. Who's gonna out score'm? That is, if they can improve a little on defense.
Oakland: We're so sorry uncle Albert, you won't be repeating this season as AFC West Champs. You're too old and last year you blew it. But you're still talented enough to finish second.
Chargers: Brees improves.
Denver: Plummer is not the answer. What ever happened to Bubby? Hey, he was pretty decent.
NFC East:
Philly: Last year was their year, but this is still a very capable team. Don't count out Andy Reid just yet. Although if he blows it again, I'll put him in the Dennis Green category. But not yet; this team is the best in the NFL.
Giants: Collins keeps getting better with maturity. Every aspect of Fassel's team is strong and disciplined. They almost made the big one last year and could make a run again.
Cowboys: Decent defensive play last year; Parcells will make a difference, but you still gotta' have the tools; and until the solve the QB issue, they'll battle the Redskins for last.
Redskins: Man, Spurrier just doesn't get it. For all his football genious I'm rather taken back by his inability last season to work with what he has (Davis) rather than what he does not have (QB--pick one). I think Stever Spurrier thinks the run is a plaque. Again, good coach, good defense; they need to establish maturity at the QB position--and confidence.
NFC North:
Packers: Who else?
Vikings: Could be sleeper this year; was anxious to jump on'em plus six at Lambeau in their opener, but Bennet is out. Offensive line better this year, and if/when Bennet returns.....look out, they could be tough to handle; Moss effective off-season mentally and physically--ready to play.
Lions: Mariucci the difference between last and next to last.
Chicago: Another tough year in my opinion. Remember, everyone looks better on paper, but someone still has to lose. And when you weed'em out, it's just a matter of a process of eliminaition. Not that the Bears are that bad, but that the other teams are better.
NFC South:
Carolina: The Panthers will win their division this year, finish #1 in defense, make a VERY serious run for the Superbowl, win straight up as underdogs, blowout weak teams, blowout average teams, and be an overall nightmare for offensive coordinaters. Teams will struggle to cover the following week after playing the physical Panthers.
Tampa Bay: Still strong, but will have to settle for a wild card.
Falcons: What a shame. Man was I looking forward to seeing how opposing defenses were going to contain Vick while doubling Price. I guess we'll see when Mike returns; but I really question if he'll have the same edge; he might step out of bounds more often now.
Saints: Do not EVEN get me started on these sorry @ss Saints! Anyone who's followed my stuff over the years knows how much I have come to despise this team. Sorry. I have nothing for a QB that cannot take his role seriously when the game is on the line or for the coach that won't do anything about it. Brooks continues to give nice grill shots for the cameras while he cuts up with the players on the bench. That's great, but not if you're down by a score late in the game and you need to win it to make the playoffs. Oh, by the way, you're playing the worst team in the league. But that's okay. Just keep cutting up, don't bother to think about the next drive like Montana, Favre, Young, and any other self respecting 'intelligent' QB to ever play the game. Oh, maybe that's it.
Btw, this team has head problems after collapsing in each of their last 2 seasons. It's a kinda' hush hush hanging over their heads; nobody wants to talk about it, but they're all wondering what the answer is; because no one can put a finger on why the collapse against the worst teams in the league when they need to simply win to make the playoffs. This is a team that beat the Bucs twice last year. Well, they got head problems and still haven't gotten over it.
The Saints are having problems concentrating which is affecting their execution. Have you ever tried to play golf in the morning when you know you have something that needs to be done before 5:00 pm? Okay, then you know how hard it is to shoot a good game. That's where the Saints are at now, and they will have their head handed to them on a platter in their opener at Seattle--a team and coach whose time has come.
You heard it here first: THE TALENTED SAINTS HAVE ISSUES, AND THE FINGER POINTING WILL BEGIN BY MID-SEASON.
NFC West:
Seattle: Surprise, surprise. Finally, Hasselbeck gets it. Folks, you're in for treat watching the Hawks this year. It's sure to bring back memories of what we are use to seeing from Holmgren. One of the brilliant QB minds in the game, the Seattle HC has apparently finally got through to Hasselbeck if last year's closing numbers were any indicater. Throw in a Dash of Alexander and an improved run D, and you have all the makings of a classic sleeper. Bank'em week one when the dismantle the distracted Saints.
49ers: Look for San Fran and Seattle to battle it out for the West. New Head coach Erickson might be what the talented 49ers needed--a simple change. Garcia has been nothing short of spectacular in his 5 years and is on record pace to break both Montana's and Young's records--and that without the help of Rice. Expect yet another brilliant year and even better as Jeff will have freer reign under Erickson. Should be shoe in for playoffs.
Rams: Lotsa' talent, but until Warner proves he can return to '99 form, gotta' be thinking fade. League has found he can be rattled. Warner has relied on quick release to avoid sacks, but sooner or later quick release end in interceptions once studied. Cooler, more mobile Bulger might be the wiser choice if Warner struggles early.
Arizona: If Rams don't tighten up, Cards could actually assume the #3 position in the West. Addition of Smith and subtraction of Plummer equals a fresh and welcome change. Vastly improved defense and new found run game could make the Cards a live dog, if not a wildcard contender. But for now we'll keep'm in the cellar until they prove otherwise.
***THAT ENDS THE 2003 NFL PRE-VIEW ISSUE AS POSTED HERE LAST AUGUST***
By the time Issue One of the Spread Report was sent on September 3rd, 2003, I had FINALIZED my predictions. Here's a PASTE from my archives of every single mention of (or allusion to) the Carolina Panthers from Issue One to the Superbowl Issue:
Issue #1
(in prologue)
Greetings...
Football is FINALLY here! And I'll kick it all off with my Superbowl projection: Carolina Panthers versus New England Patriots
Right now you can get 35-1 on the Patriots to win it all and 75-1 on the Panthers. You can also get 35-1 on Carolina to win the NFC title and 8-1 on them to win their division.
(in analysis)
By now it's no secret that my choice for Most Improved Team of the Year and NFC Superbowl representative is the Carolina Panthers. Number two in defense last year, they'll be even better this year. They merely needed a little help on the offensive side of the ball to make the well-coached Panthers legitimate contenders--and they got it with Stephen Davis, Jake Delhoume, Kevin Dyson (injured), and Ricky Proehl. I like'm over the Jags (or anybody for that matter) to make a statement early: We are for real. Yes, they are. Panthers –4
Issue #2
No mention.
Issue #3
(in prologue regarding their upset Week 2 of the Champion Bucs)
Anymore Carolina Panther doubters? I know, the Season's still young, but we'll continue to back them in dog roles...
Issue #4
(in analysis)
Falcons @ PANTHERS
Well that didn't take long. Vegas caught on rather quickly (darn it) to my Superbowl Choice Panthers. Beat the defending champs and presto, just like that you're a six-point pick. As much as I like them, I'm not laying six to Doug Johnson and all that Falcon talent. Points might be worth a look in this game, but still hard to guage just how good this Panther team may or may not be: PASS
Issue #5
(in analysis)
Saints @ PANTERS
I haven't gone off on the Saints lately and this would be the perfect spot for it after last week's incredibly lackadasical showing. Brooks continues to cut up on the side line even when losing 55-13 in the third quarter. Whether they say so or not, this attitude coming from the QB rubs teammates the wrong way. Until Haslette has the guts to do something about it, the Saints will continue to struggle and lose fan support. He should bench Brooks and put in Delhomme.....oh yeah that's right, they screwed up that situation also.
Issue #6
(in analysis)
Panthers @ COLTS
Still not a believer? I called it before the Season began and maintain that the Panthers will be the most improved team in the league and will make a very real run for the Superbowl. They are still my choice in the NFC (even over the Vikes) and will win over the last tidbit of doubters this Sunday when the win Straigt Up at Indy. Watch. Fox's no-nonsense approach and zero tolerance for apathy makes the difference, and we'll rid'em with points EVERY time until they prove otherwise: PANTHERS
Issue #7
(in prologue)
Carolina Panthers continued to vindicate my insanity by pulling out yet another victory over a good football team; and on the road at that. They seem to be doing it on the strength of a bend-but-not-break system as Fox's team is consistently being outgained and is in the bottom third of the league offensively and defensively yardage wise. I like John Fox and what he's got going on, and you can expect the Panthers to continue to win.
(in analysis)
Titans @ PANTHERS:
I expect yet another banner performance from the Panther D. I liked them to shut down the high powered Colts offense last week, and I like them to shut down McNair and Company this week. Cats just keep getting the job done. Should be close, low-scoring game; but with LV catching up with the Panthers, we'll stay away this week as Tenny is quite tough themselves and are not a team I'm prepared to lay a single point to: PASS
Issue #8
(in analysis)
Panthers @ SAINTS
Very interesting match up. We will find out if Saints burst is for real, because one thing is for sure: The Panthers put last week behind them in the blink of an eye. That's John Fox. And while it's not unusual for even good teams to lose 2 straight once having lost one, we're not about to go against these guys. Saints seem to be the play, but we will: PASS
Issue #9
(in analysis)
Panthers @ TEXANS
Oh my beloved Panthers. Right now you would be 7-0 ATS this year going with them as dogs and against them as faves. Yes, that's the kinda' ball they play. Don't look for that to change this week. Especially with Capers taking his first crack at this former team. And you know how I feel about that. Houston could win straight up: TEXANS
Issue #10
(in prologue)
-We'll find out this week how good my Panthers are. They face the Bucs in a must win for Tampa Bay.
(in analysis)
Bucs @ PANTHERS
This is a very intriguing line. Cats are NFC-leading 6-2 versus a .500 ball club whom they already beat this year and are now a Home Dog. Ironically, I like the Bucs in this one. I'll bite with the division road fave as I feel the Bucs are in a similar situation to the Packers last Sunday night. And let's not forget, they are a good team: BUCS
Issue #11
(in prologue)
For the first time this season I didn't give the Panthers a chance, thinking they would've been hammered by the Bucs in a must win situation. But my Superbowl choice Panthers surprised even me and are looking more for real each week. The Cowboys and Panthers, both atop the NFC @ 7-2, meet in 2 weeks in what could be a NFC Championship preview--if you can believe that (and if Philly doesn't continue their roll). Wow.
(in analysis)
Redskins @ PANTHERS
Carolina been playing games close to the vest all season long, and this week shouldn't be any different. Redskins ended 4-game skid last week and Panthers are off virtual division clinching victory. Points look good: REDSKINS
Issue #12
(in prologue)
Come on PANTHERS!!! Alone at the Top of the NFC @ 8-2 and getting 75-1 back to win the Superbowl, you'd better believe I'm pulling for Carolina to win it all! Don't laugh, it could happen. Also got Chiefs at 25-1 and Pats at 35-1 and, yes, a hedge on Philly @ 5-1.
(in analysis)
Panthers @ COWBOYS
I'm not sure I can separate myself from this game emotionally. I'm so ecstatic about my Panthers and in particular in this matchup. I'm gonna be watching for sure. Whether to go with the home team or the points is the question. I lean toward the home team. But then again, laying points to an 8-2 team with excellent special teams, a solid defense, a strong running game, a sound coaching philosophy, and an enormous amount of confidence is not the smartest thing to do: PASS
Issue #13
(in analysis)
Eagles @ PANTHERS
It's that time of year when the CON-tenders are separated from the PRE-tenders. We'll find out what the Cats are all about here. I contend that they will contend and are therefore, well, contenders. So are the Eagles. Home field makes the difference: PANTHERS
Issue #14
(no mention, though listed them as play w/o analysis)
Issue #15
(in prologue)
If you missed Micheal Vick in his return Sunday night, you missed a good one. He single handedly beat the Panthers. No way I thought Vick would return with that kind of night. The good news for the NFL and fans alike (including me) is that Micheal Vick has not lost a step. All the pre-season hype about how Peerless Price would open up the field for Vick lived up to its billing. As much as I don't want to see him get hurt, I've got a feeling someone's gonna get real tired of him making them look stupid and pull a cheap shot on Vick. I really don't want to see that. But you could see the frustration on the part of the Panther defense. Vick is that good. So beyond anything I've seen that he truly does make the defense look like sandlot players. You mark my words, teams are gonna get real tired of that real fast. I've never seen anything like Micheal Vick. He did it at V-Tech, he did it last year, and Sunday night he picked right back up where he left off. Unbelievable.
Issue #16
(in prologue)
*Someone got to Vick. Man he stayed in the Pocket.
*Wannstedt is toast.
*The Eagles win it all?
*Don't count out the Panthers. It may seem laughable in view of the Eagles and Rams, but I maintain that Carolina has all the ingredients of a Superbowl team.
*Go PATRIOTS!
Issue #17
(no mention)
Issue #18 (playoffs begin)
(in prologue)
The NFL Playoffs are here, and what a wild finish it was as the Saints, Cards, and Lions played spoiler roles big time. Could the Packers be destined? Can the Eagles get it done without Westbrook being 100%? What about the Titans without a fully healthy McNair? Is anyone cabable of dethroning the Eagles in Philly and sending them into the land of Dennis Green's Viking days?
Although I am slightly biased, I believe the Panthers are best suited to take out the Ealges. Philly's run D is their weak spot and the Panthers D can keep it close enough to have a chance to win the game at the end--something they're good at. However, that match up probably will not happen (oh well) as Carolina--assuming they get by Dallas--would have to win @ St Louis. It could happen, but it's not likely as the Rams simply do not lose at home.
On the AFC side of the ball, it's looking like the Pats barring any kind of fluke. Pats could win it all and probably will; which is fine with me as they are my 2nd highest futures payoff (Panthers highest at 75-1). I guess we will see.
(in analysis)
Cowboys @ PANTHERS
If Parcells were not the coach, this would be a no-brainer to me. But he is the coach, which means you cannot count out his team no matter what. That said, I like the Panthers. I maintain that they have all the ingredients necessary to go to the Superbowl. Dallas does not as they lack a consistent running game or Superstar QB to make up for the lack thereof: PANTHERS & UNDER
Issue #19
(in prologue/analysis)
The Panthers-Rams game is a really tough call for me. Every ounce of me is pulling for the Panthers @ 75-1 back (futures to win SB). And every ounce of me clings tenaciously to my pride and belief that they have all the ingredients to go all the way.
The only problem is that the history of round two home teams off a bye is very solid and very consistent. The Rams are 8-0 SU at home and 6-1-1 ATS and are winning their home games by an average of 17.1 points per game. Add to that the fact that they are favored by merely one touchdown--a number I find a bit low as I was expecting double-digits. Carolina backers have jumped on the bandwagon apparently and last week's blowout win versus the Cowboys has kept the LV number in check vs the Rams this week.
I see no reason why the Rams won't win this game at home and cover the soft number. That's hard for me to say, but being objective, well, I gotta' stick to capping. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in that assessment. There's a part of me that thinks the Panther's Head Coach John Fox has got'em focussed at just the right time; and that Marc Bulger is not proven in the Playoffs and even played poorly last week.
The very real possibility exists that the Panthers front four will be too much for unproven Bulger in any game--much less a playoff game with the added pressure. Last week's poor performance against one of the league's worst teams came on the heels of Mike Martz suggesting that "our playoffs begin today". Really? Gotta' wonder if Bulger's subsequent bad day was partly due to the added pressure or if, in fact, he merely had a bad game.
This game could very well resemble the 1999 Playoff matchup between the Bucs and Rams where Tampa Bay's defense shut down St Louis and the Bucs darn near won that game in a close, low-scoring battle. Let's not forget how dominating the Rams were that year prior to the Bucs game and how (seemingly) obvious a play on the Rams appeared. And that Rams team was far more dominating and better coached.
This is a game that I will be watching. I'll be pulling for the Cats all the way. Meanwhile, I think I am too close to the game to make a call. I've offered two scenarios above, but am torn: PASS
Issue #20
(prologue/analysis)
Prior to the beginning of the season I picked the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers to meet in the Superbowl as evidenced throughout my SRO sheets. I have maintained since August that the Cats have the metal--all the necessary ingredients to get to the big dance.
My take going into last week's game in St Loius was that it could be the end of the season for the Panthers, but that if they did beat the Rams, that would be their hardest test and that they would go on from there to represent the NFC in the Superbowl. No disrespect to Packer fans or Eagle fans. I just felt like if they could get by the Rams on the road, then they would be okay since they match up well versus Green Bay and Philly.
Of course, the Panthers (nor the Patriots for that matter) have not actually made it there yet, and a Colts-Eagles matchup would not be far-fetched at all. However, I'm sticking to my original guns...
I prefer the moneyline on both games with the Pats -175 and the Cats +175 (Olympic, Monday 6:00 pm eastern).
Issue #21 (Superbowl)
(prologue/analysis)
Greetings...
Well they did it. In Issue #1 of the SRO I projected a Panthers-Patriots matchup and we got it. And for those who did like me and jumped on Carolina and New England early, it's a win-win game as the Pats were 35-1 back and the Panthers 75-1 back.
In addition to that we swept the board 7-0 on our Futures for Team Wins as documented in our NFL Preview posted at bettorstalk and in issue SRO Issue #1.
Here's what I like:
*Panthers +7
*Panthers +225
*UNDER 38.0
*Pats UNDER 21.5
*OVERTIME @ 8-1 back
*MVP Deshaun Foster @ 15-1
*MVP Steve Smith @ 15-1
*MVP Ricky Manning Jr @ 22-1
I think Carolina will win this game. Therefore I'm looking in that direction when it comes to MVP futures. I'm discounting Jake Delhomme for 2 reasons. One, he's going against the deceptive Pats D. And two, I do not look for Fox to center his game plan around Jake (check NFC Championship game where Delhomme had a mere 14 attempts). I'm discounting Stephen Davis on three counts. One, he still may be slightly recovering. Two, Pats will focus on him. And three, Foster has been the man thus far in the playoffs and pays more to boot (15-1 against Davis' 8-1).
Although I don't expect much from the Panther passing attack, I still like Steve Smith for two reasons. One, he's a big play guy. A playmaker. He can take a 7-yard slant and go 70 yards (ask the Rams). Two, he's on special teams which gives us a double shot at some game-breaking plays from a game breaking guy. At 15-1, it's a bargain.
Finally, I like Ricky Manning Jr @ 22-1. This is an awful lot of money back on a guy that has stepped it up the way Ricky has. And in a game between two defensive minds, don't be surprised if it turns out to be a defensive game with a defensive MVP. Manning is my choice.
Panthers 16
Patriots 13 (OT)
Good Luck,
dave
***THAT ENDS THE PASTE OF LAST YEAR'S ARCHIVES OF THE SRO***
That's where my head was last year. Now I'm gonna make some preliminary observations regarding this Season...
...can the Jets bounce back with a healthy Pennington?
...can the Patriots repeat?
...will the Panters go back?
...what about the Packers?
...can the Colts go bowling now that monkey is off Dungy's back (and Manning's)?
...what about the Chiefs?
...who's the sleeper team?
...what about Philly?
Stay tuned...
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
Last year during the off-season I was convinced that the Jets would be a Superbowl Contender--a belief subscribed to largely in part because of the rise of Chad Pennington. Then came the Redskin's drive-by, and the Jets looked violated. But breaking it down, my only real concern was the loss of WR Laveranues Coles. So I eagerly waited for the Jet's Japan Bowl against the defending Champion Tampa Bay Bucs to watch closely.
My belief prior to the Japan Bowl was that, overall, the loss of Coles would not be a huge factor; that Curtis Conway would be sufficient enough of a replacement although, admittedly, not the game breaker Coles was. With Moss on the other side, I did not feel that the grim predictions made by the experts were as dreadful as they made it sound. I still had the Jets pegged as SB contenders even after the Washington debacle. I was confident in my assertion. Confident enough to post what I expected in the Japan Bowl...
"Look for Pennington to go deep to Conway early and often to allay the concerns of Critics and Fans alike."
Lo. Behold. On their second play from scrimmage Pennington aired it deep to Conway. Complete for 68 yards. Pennington led the Jets on an opening drive of 4 plays and a TD against the starting players of the Buc's Number One defense. Just like that. The game wasn't five minutes old and I had seen all I needed to see. The Jets remained my choice in the AFC to go Bowling.
Unfortunately, Pennington suffered a pre-season injury. With that injury came my search for different team to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. I eventually landed on the side of the New England Patriots as my choice, a successful prediction outdone only by the fact that I also correctly predicted the Carolina Panthers to represent the NFC in the Superbowl.
My call on the Panthers was one of the more remarkable calls in my 25-year handicapping career, but not the first head-scratcher of mine. Other calls would include...
The Titans would make a SB run in '99. Five years later and retrospectively on this side of that prediction it does not seem like much. But consider that Fisher had been with the team five years at the time and his best season was 8-8.
The Ravens would make a run in 2000. Listen up non-believers in Pre-Season. This prediction was made largely in part by what I saw in PRE-SEASON! Pre-Season also SOLIDIFIED my take on last year's Panthers! I had my eye on the Panthers, but Pre-Season made up my mind. Don't believe for one second that Pre-Season means nothing.
To start, teams that go winless in pre-season do not make the playoffs. Teams that go undefeated in pre-season go to the playoffs. Pre-Season helped me to discern 7 OVER/UNDER Team Wins Futures Plays last Season--all of which Won. Seven-zip. A team's defensive execution during pre-season says an awful lot also if you know what you're looking for.
The gist of my opening statements here [in what will be an on-going and potentially ever-changing] analysis of the upcoming NFL Season is three-fold: One, to establish my credentials. Two, what I'm posting here in July is not necessarily my FINAL ANALYSIS. My final analysis will come out in my NFL Preview Issue between the final Pre-Season game and the first Regular Season Game. It will not appear at the forum but in the Spread Report Online (elaboration at proper forum). And three, PRE-SEASON MATTERS!
Having cited those two points above, I'll start off this Year's NFL Pre-Season Preview by posting (pasting) an EXACT REPLICA of my NFL Pre-view from last season AS POSTED RIGHT HERE at this forum under the username 'FootballFormula' (feel free to do a search). This paste is complete minus the promotion...
THE FOLLOWING NFL PRE-VIEW WAS POSTED AT THIS SITE ON AUGUST 26, 2003:
Okay it's time. I've seen enough. I had some early indications of who I would be liking this season, and from the looks of Pre-Season, I won't be disappointed.
Some of you will remember my NFL Preview a few years ago when I projected the Titans to be the most improved team in the league. That article was posted at ********* and also published in playersedge mag. They went to the Superbowl that season.
I followed by projecting the Ravens to be the most improved team in the leaque, and they too went to the Superbowl that season. Too bad it didn't always happen that way; but for atleast those two times it did.
If you're really an old timer, you will remember a projection I made in the early 90's when the Cowboys went 1-15:
"Some how the League has allowed the Cowboys to amass perhaps the biggest steal in NFL History with the Vikings-Hershel Walker fiasco. Well they will regret it. Expect the Cowboys to be the team of the 90's. They will win four Superbowls and atleast 2 of them back-to-back; if not three."
And, of course, those closest to me cannot forget my call on the Broncos-Packers Superbowl:
"The Broncos (12-point dogs) will break the NFC win Streak and win the game straight up. It will be close--perhaps the first overtime game in SB history. I figure the final to be 30-24 Denver in OT."
Final: 31-24 Denver as they scored late to break a 24-24 tie and avoid OT. Okay. Enough bragging. Let's get to it...
During the off-Season, I've been really high on the Jets. I feel they have all they need to win a Superbowl. They have a QB who is not only efficient but extremely cool under pressure. Sophmore jinx? Forget about it. Rookie QB's coming off record seasons (eg, magic Majkowski, Packers) often suffer Sophmore jinx's because they become invinsible in their minds. The difference with Pennington is that he spent a couple years on the bench and learned.
Next the Jets have the coach. The days of the Jets folding when the spotlight is on them, well, those days are over. Herman Edwards is not Rich Kotite. He's the real deal and you will see. Those were my thoughts during the off-season. But then came the blue light special they granted the Redskins. All the critices came out. Even magazines are picking them to finish last or third in the AFC East--and that was BEFORE Pennington's injury. For sure now the whole knowledgable football world will discount the Jets.
In fact, the overreaction has gotten so rediculous, the Jets are now a 3-point dog to the Redskins. What? Folks, the Jets are a legitimate Superbowl Contender. When you break down the players that they traded to the Skins, you'll find the most significant one to be WR Coles.
Well, I took the liberty to make sure I was awake to watch the opening drive of the Japan Bowl in the wee hours of the morning when the Bucs and Jets played their 1st pre-season game. I've could've written the script:
"Expect the Jets to silence their critics by going to Curtis Conway (Cole's replacement) early, often, and deep."
Pennington came out cool, hitting Conway for a short completion on the Jets first play from scrimmage. Two plays later, he hit Conway deep for about a 40-yard gain. And before it was all over, Penny and the Jets had completed 4 of 4 for 67 yards and a TD against the Bucs starting defense. No signs of sophmore jinx's or jitters, and a sigh of relief for Yorkers who wondered if Conway could fill the shoes.
Defense? The Jets defense improved over 100 yards per game their final 11 games versus their first five games last season. Now, what about Vinny? Can he do it? Hey, I'll admit I'm going with a bit of a hunch here, but I've got a very strong feeling that Vinny T is in for a record season for his career. I think he was much inspired by the success of Pennington last season--whom he humbly aided and supported on the sidelines without complaint.
Watch out for the Jets. You can bank'em in their opener at Washington. The Jets are so far better than the Redskins its not even funny. Watch the Jets--watch Edwards have another great season in the face of adversity. The Dolphins couldn't get to the playoffs despite being in the top 3 in eleven key statistical categories last season. The Bills will be improved on defense but don't yet realize how much they're gonna miss Peerless Price, and the Patriots, well, they're SB contenders as well--another key team to watch, and especially in underdog roles.
Now, having said all that (and I still believe it), there is one other team that I am even more excited about, and they are my choice for MOST IMPROVED TEAM OF THE YEAR. If they follow suit like the Titans and Ravens a couple years ago, they could end up in the Superbowl. And don't laugh, because at the time of my Baltimore projection, it was equally laughable--but it happened.
And right now with this team, you can get back 8-1 to win their division, 35-1 to win their conference, and 75-1 to win the Superbowl. To give you an idea of how seemingly laughable my choice is, the only teams with higher odds to win the SB are the Lions, Cardinals, Bengals, and Texans. My choice this year to be most improved in the NFL, the most underrated team and biggest sleeper is...
The Carolina Panthers
#2 in defense last season, they will be #1 this year. John Fox took them from 1-15 to 7-9 in his first year. He is a solid, fundamentals, textbook, no-nonsense coach. Randy Moss wouldn't last 4 hours on Fox's Panthers Squad on a good day. During the off-season the Panthers beefed up the offensive line, acquired Stephen Davis, Ricky Proehl, Kevin Dyson, and Jake Delhomme who showed promise in place of Arron Brooks last year with the Saints.
Rodney Peete complete 58% of his passes last season and has a stronger OL this year and Delhomme to back him up. Dyson is injured but that won't matter because (a.) Panthers are deep at the position, and (b.) they are primarily a running, clock burning team. Fundamentals. Bank it. You hear it here first:
THE CAROLINA PANTHERS WILL RAISE EYEBROWS THIS SEASON WITH THEIR UNGODLY DEFENSE AND SLOW BURNING, BALL CONTROL OFFENSE.
EXPECT THEM TO MIX IN JUST ENOUGH MUHAMMAD, MANGUM, AND PROEHL TO KEEP THE LANES OPEN FOR DAVIS.
Bank it. Week One:
Jets +3 over REDSKINS
PANTHERS -3.5 over the "trying to trade our Veteran QB with less than two weeks before kickoff" Jaguars.
Man, can you imagine? What does that do to team morale and continuity? At this point it doesn't matter who starts for the Jags. If they start Brunnel, I'm not sure he'll be up to par in view of this late attempt at a trade. And if they don't, the Panther's defense will eat their lunch with Garrard, Gray, or Leftwich at the helm.
Other Week One thoughts:
Ravens +6 over STEELERS (plus six with this coach automatic)
Colts +1' over BROWNS (Browns D having probs; Colts D much improved; Indy ready to make run)
SEATTLE -3 over Saints (Saints got head problems; Seahawks HUGE sleeper)
Futures I like:
To Win SB:
Eagles 9-1
Jets 15-1
Titans 20-1
Chiefs 25-1
Pats 35-1
Ravens 40-1
Seahawks 50-1
Vikings 50-1
Panthers 75-1
To Win AFC:
Jets 8-1
Titans 8-1
Chiefs 12-1
Pats 11-1
Ravens 16-1
To Win NFC:
Eagles 4-1
Seahawks 20-1
Vikings 22-1
Panthers 35-1
To Win Division:
Panters 8-1
Over/Under Season Wins:
Titans OVER 9.5 -125
Browns UNDER 8.5 -175
Patriots OVER 8.5 -150
Panthers OVER 7.5 -110
Seahawks OVER 7.5 -200
AFC East:
New England: Could make run for bowl. Still basic team that won it all two years ago. Beefed up defense looking solid in pre-season.
Jets: Jets are for real, should get wild card behind Pats.
Miami: Very strong team just got stronger with veteran defensive help that they didn't even need. Should be Wannstedt's last year if this team does not make the Superbowl; and I doubt they will. Much like Bucs; got the team, need the coach.
Bills: They're gonna miss Price.
AFC North:
Ravens: Look for them to win the North. Defense back in the saddle, and as they proved with Dilfer at the helm, it can be done.
Steelers: Two years ago this was the best team in the AFC hands down. The longer they go on winning without making the big one (again), the harder its getting for them to believe. Just ask Denny Green and his former Vikings.
Bengals: Kitna actually started looking like an NFL QB last season. We'll see. Should edge out the Browns.
Browns: Much as I like Davis and what he's got going on in Cleveland, somebody's gotta be the worst. With the heightened competitiveness this season, Cleveland could be worst in the league unless they gel and solve their defensive woes.
AFC South:
Tennessee: Could be overall best, well-balanced and well-coached team in the league; with fairly recent SB trip, they have the confidence to return. Loss of Wycheck shouldn't hurt too bad in long run. Titans will be a contender again.
Colts: As much as I like Dungy, I'm not sure he's the answer. Sure, they'll rack up some wins and a possible wildcard, but then what?
Houston:
I'll go ahead and move Houston up ahead of the Jags for no other reason than the bonehead decision to market Brunnel 1 1/2 weeks before kickoff. Texans actually pretty decent defense and very well coached. With any improvement on offense and they could be a nice spread killer in dog roles.
Jags: Okay, let's see. It's 1st and goal on the two, the game is still up for grabs, and there's less than 4 mintues remaining. Your team is the Dallas Cowboys last year. Hmmmm. After running Emmit 1 time for 1 1/2 yards, Campo chose to pass 3 times for incompletions on the 1/2 yard line. That's bonehead call #2 from last season, taking back seat to Marty Mornhinweg's decision to "kick" after they won the coin toss in overtime. And now, for the first bonehead call of the current season, the Jags market Brunnel less than 2 weeks before kick off. Don't look now, but their season could be over before it begins.
AFC West:
Chiefs: What is it with Vermeil and his offenses? I mean, I don't the 1980 Eagles being this prolific. Really. First the 1999 Rams and now the 2002 Chiefs. All this team needs is to step it up on defense just a very slight bit, and, hey, they're actually a SB contender if they score like the scored last year. Who's gonna out score'm? That is, if they can improve a little on defense.
Oakland: We're so sorry uncle Albert, you won't be repeating this season as AFC West Champs. You're too old and last year you blew it. But you're still talented enough to finish second.
Chargers: Brees improves.
Denver: Plummer is not the answer. What ever happened to Bubby? Hey, he was pretty decent.
NFC East:
Philly: Last year was their year, but this is still a very capable team. Don't count out Andy Reid just yet. Although if he blows it again, I'll put him in the Dennis Green category. But not yet; this team is the best in the NFL.
Giants: Collins keeps getting better with maturity. Every aspect of Fassel's team is strong and disciplined. They almost made the big one last year and could make a run again.
Cowboys: Decent defensive play last year; Parcells will make a difference, but you still gotta' have the tools; and until the solve the QB issue, they'll battle the Redskins for last.
Redskins: Man, Spurrier just doesn't get it. For all his football genious I'm rather taken back by his inability last season to work with what he has (Davis) rather than what he does not have (QB--pick one). I think Stever Spurrier thinks the run is a plaque. Again, good coach, good defense; they need to establish maturity at the QB position--and confidence.
NFC North:
Packers: Who else?
Vikings: Could be sleeper this year; was anxious to jump on'em plus six at Lambeau in their opener, but Bennet is out. Offensive line better this year, and if/when Bennet returns.....look out, they could be tough to handle; Moss effective off-season mentally and physically--ready to play.
Lions: Mariucci the difference between last and next to last.
Chicago: Another tough year in my opinion. Remember, everyone looks better on paper, but someone still has to lose. And when you weed'em out, it's just a matter of a process of eliminaition. Not that the Bears are that bad, but that the other teams are better.
NFC South:
Carolina: The Panthers will win their division this year, finish #1 in defense, make a VERY serious run for the Superbowl, win straight up as underdogs, blowout weak teams, blowout average teams, and be an overall nightmare for offensive coordinaters. Teams will struggle to cover the following week after playing the physical Panthers.
Tampa Bay: Still strong, but will have to settle for a wild card.
Falcons: What a shame. Man was I looking forward to seeing how opposing defenses were going to contain Vick while doubling Price. I guess we'll see when Mike returns; but I really question if he'll have the same edge; he might step out of bounds more often now.
Saints: Do not EVEN get me started on these sorry @ss Saints! Anyone who's followed my stuff over the years knows how much I have come to despise this team. Sorry. I have nothing for a QB that cannot take his role seriously when the game is on the line or for the coach that won't do anything about it. Brooks continues to give nice grill shots for the cameras while he cuts up with the players on the bench. That's great, but not if you're down by a score late in the game and you need to win it to make the playoffs. Oh, by the way, you're playing the worst team in the league. But that's okay. Just keep cutting up, don't bother to think about the next drive like Montana, Favre, Young, and any other self respecting 'intelligent' QB to ever play the game. Oh, maybe that's it.
Btw, this team has head problems after collapsing in each of their last 2 seasons. It's a kinda' hush hush hanging over their heads; nobody wants to talk about it, but they're all wondering what the answer is; because no one can put a finger on why the collapse against the worst teams in the league when they need to simply win to make the playoffs. This is a team that beat the Bucs twice last year. Well, they got head problems and still haven't gotten over it.
The Saints are having problems concentrating which is affecting their execution. Have you ever tried to play golf in the morning when you know you have something that needs to be done before 5:00 pm? Okay, then you know how hard it is to shoot a good game. That's where the Saints are at now, and they will have their head handed to them on a platter in their opener at Seattle--a team and coach whose time has come.
You heard it here first: THE TALENTED SAINTS HAVE ISSUES, AND THE FINGER POINTING WILL BEGIN BY MID-SEASON.
NFC West:
Seattle: Surprise, surprise. Finally, Hasselbeck gets it. Folks, you're in for treat watching the Hawks this year. It's sure to bring back memories of what we are use to seeing from Holmgren. One of the brilliant QB minds in the game, the Seattle HC has apparently finally got through to Hasselbeck if last year's closing numbers were any indicater. Throw in a Dash of Alexander and an improved run D, and you have all the makings of a classic sleeper. Bank'em week one when the dismantle the distracted Saints.
49ers: Look for San Fran and Seattle to battle it out for the West. New Head coach Erickson might be what the talented 49ers needed--a simple change. Garcia has been nothing short of spectacular in his 5 years and is on record pace to break both Montana's and Young's records--and that without the help of Rice. Expect yet another brilliant year and even better as Jeff will have freer reign under Erickson. Should be shoe in for playoffs.
Rams: Lotsa' talent, but until Warner proves he can return to '99 form, gotta' be thinking fade. League has found he can be rattled. Warner has relied on quick release to avoid sacks, but sooner or later quick release end in interceptions once studied. Cooler, more mobile Bulger might be the wiser choice if Warner struggles early.
Arizona: If Rams don't tighten up, Cards could actually assume the #3 position in the West. Addition of Smith and subtraction of Plummer equals a fresh and welcome change. Vastly improved defense and new found run game could make the Cards a live dog, if not a wildcard contender. But for now we'll keep'm in the cellar until they prove otherwise.
***THAT ENDS THE 2003 NFL PRE-VIEW ISSUE AS POSTED HERE LAST AUGUST***
By the time Issue One of the Spread Report was sent on September 3rd, 2003, I had FINALIZED my predictions. Here's a PASTE from my archives of every single mention of (or allusion to) the Carolina Panthers from Issue One to the Superbowl Issue:
Issue #1
(in prologue)
Greetings...
Football is FINALLY here! And I'll kick it all off with my Superbowl projection: Carolina Panthers versus New England Patriots
Right now you can get 35-1 on the Patriots to win it all and 75-1 on the Panthers. You can also get 35-1 on Carolina to win the NFC title and 8-1 on them to win their division.
(in analysis)
By now it's no secret that my choice for Most Improved Team of the Year and NFC Superbowl representative is the Carolina Panthers. Number two in defense last year, they'll be even better this year. They merely needed a little help on the offensive side of the ball to make the well-coached Panthers legitimate contenders--and they got it with Stephen Davis, Jake Delhoume, Kevin Dyson (injured), and Ricky Proehl. I like'm over the Jags (or anybody for that matter) to make a statement early: We are for real. Yes, they are. Panthers –4
Issue #2
No mention.
Issue #3
(in prologue regarding their upset Week 2 of the Champion Bucs)
Anymore Carolina Panther doubters? I know, the Season's still young, but we'll continue to back them in dog roles...
Issue #4
(in analysis)
Falcons @ PANTHERS
Well that didn't take long. Vegas caught on rather quickly (darn it) to my Superbowl Choice Panthers. Beat the defending champs and presto, just like that you're a six-point pick. As much as I like them, I'm not laying six to Doug Johnson and all that Falcon talent. Points might be worth a look in this game, but still hard to guage just how good this Panther team may or may not be: PASS
Issue #5
(in analysis)
Saints @ PANTERS
I haven't gone off on the Saints lately and this would be the perfect spot for it after last week's incredibly lackadasical showing. Brooks continues to cut up on the side line even when losing 55-13 in the third quarter. Whether they say so or not, this attitude coming from the QB rubs teammates the wrong way. Until Haslette has the guts to do something about it, the Saints will continue to struggle and lose fan support. He should bench Brooks and put in Delhomme.....oh yeah that's right, they screwed up that situation also.
Issue #6
(in analysis)
Panthers @ COLTS
Still not a believer? I called it before the Season began and maintain that the Panthers will be the most improved team in the league and will make a very real run for the Superbowl. They are still my choice in the NFC (even over the Vikes) and will win over the last tidbit of doubters this Sunday when the win Straigt Up at Indy. Watch. Fox's no-nonsense approach and zero tolerance for apathy makes the difference, and we'll rid'em with points EVERY time until they prove otherwise: PANTHERS
Issue #7
(in prologue)
Carolina Panthers continued to vindicate my insanity by pulling out yet another victory over a good football team; and on the road at that. They seem to be doing it on the strength of a bend-but-not-break system as Fox's team is consistently being outgained and is in the bottom third of the league offensively and defensively yardage wise. I like John Fox and what he's got going on, and you can expect the Panthers to continue to win.
(in analysis)
Titans @ PANTHERS:
I expect yet another banner performance from the Panther D. I liked them to shut down the high powered Colts offense last week, and I like them to shut down McNair and Company this week. Cats just keep getting the job done. Should be close, low-scoring game; but with LV catching up with the Panthers, we'll stay away this week as Tenny is quite tough themselves and are not a team I'm prepared to lay a single point to: PASS
Issue #8
(in analysis)
Panthers @ SAINTS
Very interesting match up. We will find out if Saints burst is for real, because one thing is for sure: The Panthers put last week behind them in the blink of an eye. That's John Fox. And while it's not unusual for even good teams to lose 2 straight once having lost one, we're not about to go against these guys. Saints seem to be the play, but we will: PASS
Issue #9
(in analysis)
Panthers @ TEXANS
Oh my beloved Panthers. Right now you would be 7-0 ATS this year going with them as dogs and against them as faves. Yes, that's the kinda' ball they play. Don't look for that to change this week. Especially with Capers taking his first crack at this former team. And you know how I feel about that. Houston could win straight up: TEXANS
Issue #10
(in prologue)
-We'll find out this week how good my Panthers are. They face the Bucs in a must win for Tampa Bay.
(in analysis)
Bucs @ PANTHERS
This is a very intriguing line. Cats are NFC-leading 6-2 versus a .500 ball club whom they already beat this year and are now a Home Dog. Ironically, I like the Bucs in this one. I'll bite with the division road fave as I feel the Bucs are in a similar situation to the Packers last Sunday night. And let's not forget, they are a good team: BUCS
Issue #11
(in prologue)
For the first time this season I didn't give the Panthers a chance, thinking they would've been hammered by the Bucs in a must win situation. But my Superbowl choice Panthers surprised even me and are looking more for real each week. The Cowboys and Panthers, both atop the NFC @ 7-2, meet in 2 weeks in what could be a NFC Championship preview--if you can believe that (and if Philly doesn't continue their roll). Wow.
(in analysis)
Redskins @ PANTHERS
Carolina been playing games close to the vest all season long, and this week shouldn't be any different. Redskins ended 4-game skid last week and Panthers are off virtual division clinching victory. Points look good: REDSKINS
Issue #12
(in prologue)
Come on PANTHERS!!! Alone at the Top of the NFC @ 8-2 and getting 75-1 back to win the Superbowl, you'd better believe I'm pulling for Carolina to win it all! Don't laugh, it could happen. Also got Chiefs at 25-1 and Pats at 35-1 and, yes, a hedge on Philly @ 5-1.
(in analysis)
Panthers @ COWBOYS
I'm not sure I can separate myself from this game emotionally. I'm so ecstatic about my Panthers and in particular in this matchup. I'm gonna be watching for sure. Whether to go with the home team or the points is the question. I lean toward the home team. But then again, laying points to an 8-2 team with excellent special teams, a solid defense, a strong running game, a sound coaching philosophy, and an enormous amount of confidence is not the smartest thing to do: PASS
Issue #13
(in analysis)
Eagles @ PANTHERS
It's that time of year when the CON-tenders are separated from the PRE-tenders. We'll find out what the Cats are all about here. I contend that they will contend and are therefore, well, contenders. So are the Eagles. Home field makes the difference: PANTHERS
Issue #14
(no mention, though listed them as play w/o analysis)
Issue #15
(in prologue)
If you missed Micheal Vick in his return Sunday night, you missed a good one. He single handedly beat the Panthers. No way I thought Vick would return with that kind of night. The good news for the NFL and fans alike (including me) is that Micheal Vick has not lost a step. All the pre-season hype about how Peerless Price would open up the field for Vick lived up to its billing. As much as I don't want to see him get hurt, I've got a feeling someone's gonna get real tired of him making them look stupid and pull a cheap shot on Vick. I really don't want to see that. But you could see the frustration on the part of the Panther defense. Vick is that good. So beyond anything I've seen that he truly does make the defense look like sandlot players. You mark my words, teams are gonna get real tired of that real fast. I've never seen anything like Micheal Vick. He did it at V-Tech, he did it last year, and Sunday night he picked right back up where he left off. Unbelievable.
Issue #16
(in prologue)
*Someone got to Vick. Man he stayed in the Pocket.
*Wannstedt is toast.
*The Eagles win it all?
*Don't count out the Panthers. It may seem laughable in view of the Eagles and Rams, but I maintain that Carolina has all the ingredients of a Superbowl team.
*Go PATRIOTS!
Issue #17
(no mention)
Issue #18 (playoffs begin)
(in prologue)
The NFL Playoffs are here, and what a wild finish it was as the Saints, Cards, and Lions played spoiler roles big time. Could the Packers be destined? Can the Eagles get it done without Westbrook being 100%? What about the Titans without a fully healthy McNair? Is anyone cabable of dethroning the Eagles in Philly and sending them into the land of Dennis Green's Viking days?
Although I am slightly biased, I believe the Panthers are best suited to take out the Ealges. Philly's run D is their weak spot and the Panthers D can keep it close enough to have a chance to win the game at the end--something they're good at. However, that match up probably will not happen (oh well) as Carolina--assuming they get by Dallas--would have to win @ St Louis. It could happen, but it's not likely as the Rams simply do not lose at home.
On the AFC side of the ball, it's looking like the Pats barring any kind of fluke. Pats could win it all and probably will; which is fine with me as they are my 2nd highest futures payoff (Panthers highest at 75-1). I guess we will see.
(in analysis)
Cowboys @ PANTHERS
If Parcells were not the coach, this would be a no-brainer to me. But he is the coach, which means you cannot count out his team no matter what. That said, I like the Panthers. I maintain that they have all the ingredients necessary to go to the Superbowl. Dallas does not as they lack a consistent running game or Superstar QB to make up for the lack thereof: PANTHERS & UNDER
Issue #19
(in prologue/analysis)
The Panthers-Rams game is a really tough call for me. Every ounce of me is pulling for the Panthers @ 75-1 back (futures to win SB). And every ounce of me clings tenaciously to my pride and belief that they have all the ingredients to go all the way.
The only problem is that the history of round two home teams off a bye is very solid and very consistent. The Rams are 8-0 SU at home and 6-1-1 ATS and are winning their home games by an average of 17.1 points per game. Add to that the fact that they are favored by merely one touchdown--a number I find a bit low as I was expecting double-digits. Carolina backers have jumped on the bandwagon apparently and last week's blowout win versus the Cowboys has kept the LV number in check vs the Rams this week.
I see no reason why the Rams won't win this game at home and cover the soft number. That's hard for me to say, but being objective, well, I gotta' stick to capping. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in that assessment. There's a part of me that thinks the Panther's Head Coach John Fox has got'em focussed at just the right time; and that Marc Bulger is not proven in the Playoffs and even played poorly last week.
The very real possibility exists that the Panthers front four will be too much for unproven Bulger in any game--much less a playoff game with the added pressure. Last week's poor performance against one of the league's worst teams came on the heels of Mike Martz suggesting that "our playoffs begin today". Really? Gotta' wonder if Bulger's subsequent bad day was partly due to the added pressure or if, in fact, he merely had a bad game.
This game could very well resemble the 1999 Playoff matchup between the Bucs and Rams where Tampa Bay's defense shut down St Louis and the Bucs darn near won that game in a close, low-scoring battle. Let's not forget how dominating the Rams were that year prior to the Bucs game and how (seemingly) obvious a play on the Rams appeared. And that Rams team was far more dominating and better coached.
This is a game that I will be watching. I'll be pulling for the Cats all the way. Meanwhile, I think I am too close to the game to make a call. I've offered two scenarios above, but am torn: PASS
Issue #20
(prologue/analysis)
Prior to the beginning of the season I picked the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers to meet in the Superbowl as evidenced throughout my SRO sheets. I have maintained since August that the Cats have the metal--all the necessary ingredients to get to the big dance.
My take going into last week's game in St Loius was that it could be the end of the season for the Panthers, but that if they did beat the Rams, that would be their hardest test and that they would go on from there to represent the NFC in the Superbowl. No disrespect to Packer fans or Eagle fans. I just felt like if they could get by the Rams on the road, then they would be okay since they match up well versus Green Bay and Philly.
Of course, the Panthers (nor the Patriots for that matter) have not actually made it there yet, and a Colts-Eagles matchup would not be far-fetched at all. However, I'm sticking to my original guns...
I prefer the moneyline on both games with the Pats -175 and the Cats +175 (Olympic, Monday 6:00 pm eastern).
Issue #21 (Superbowl)
(prologue/analysis)
Greetings...
Well they did it. In Issue #1 of the SRO I projected a Panthers-Patriots matchup and we got it. And for those who did like me and jumped on Carolina and New England early, it's a win-win game as the Pats were 35-1 back and the Panthers 75-1 back.
In addition to that we swept the board 7-0 on our Futures for Team Wins as documented in our NFL Preview posted at bettorstalk and in issue SRO Issue #1.
Here's what I like:
*Panthers +7
*Panthers +225
*UNDER 38.0
*Pats UNDER 21.5
*OVERTIME @ 8-1 back
*MVP Deshaun Foster @ 15-1
*MVP Steve Smith @ 15-1
*MVP Ricky Manning Jr @ 22-1
I think Carolina will win this game. Therefore I'm looking in that direction when it comes to MVP futures. I'm discounting Jake Delhomme for 2 reasons. One, he's going against the deceptive Pats D. And two, I do not look for Fox to center his game plan around Jake (check NFC Championship game where Delhomme had a mere 14 attempts). I'm discounting Stephen Davis on three counts. One, he still may be slightly recovering. Two, Pats will focus on him. And three, Foster has been the man thus far in the playoffs and pays more to boot (15-1 against Davis' 8-1).
Although I don't expect much from the Panther passing attack, I still like Steve Smith for two reasons. One, he's a big play guy. A playmaker. He can take a 7-yard slant and go 70 yards (ask the Rams). Two, he's on special teams which gives us a double shot at some game-breaking plays from a game breaking guy. At 15-1, it's a bargain.
Finally, I like Ricky Manning Jr @ 22-1. This is an awful lot of money back on a guy that has stepped it up the way Ricky has. And in a game between two defensive minds, don't be surprised if it turns out to be a defensive game with a defensive MVP. Manning is my choice.
Panthers 16
Patriots 13 (OT)
Good Luck,
dave
***THAT ENDS THE PASTE OF LAST YEAR'S ARCHIVES OF THE SRO***
That's where my head was last year. Now I'm gonna make some preliminary observations regarding this Season...
...can the Jets bounce back with a healthy Pennington?
...can the Patriots repeat?
...will the Panters go back?
...what about the Packers?
...can the Colts go bowling now that monkey is off Dungy's back (and Manning's)?
...what about the Chiefs?
...who's the sleeper team?
...what about Philly?
Stay tuned...
dave
http://spreadreport.tripod.com
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