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Insider Edge Sports – Report For Saturday, May 1, 2004
Saturday’s Free Card
Plays go 2-1 on Friday with the Braves/Rockies getting postponed. The A’s beat us with just 4 hits…unreal. That same pitching matchup is going in game 1 between Atlanta and Colorado so it will be a play again on Saturday. We have 5 plays going for today and tonight.
MLB
Atlanta Braves (Hampton) at Colorado Rockies (Kennedy) 3:05 PM ET (makeup from Friday)
Colorado (Kennedy) –1.5 +163 (2 Units)
We all know the problems Mike Hampton had in Colorado in the two years he was there. He had a 5.71 ERA in 2001 at Coors Field and followed that up with a 5.58 ERA in 2002. He went back once last season and even though he picked up the win, he didn’t pitch well, allowing 4 runs on 11 hits over 6.2 innings. This season he is 0-2 with a 12.54 ERA and 2.57 WHIP away from Turner Field and his worse outing was against the lowly Mets if that says anything. Overall, he has just one quality stat in 4 tries as he has allowed at least 9 hits and 6 runs in 3 of his 4 starts. Atlanta is 3-5 in his last 8 starts and if not for an 18 run outburst by the Braves in that Mets game, they would be 2-6. Things should only get worse as he heads back to Colorado. Joe Kennedy has been superb for the Rockies as they are 3-1 in his 4 starts and more impressively, the only loss was on the road and even that wasn’t a bad start. He is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA at Coors this season as he has given up only 2 runs in each of his last 2 starts. As long as Colorado can get out of the first innings, they should be just fine. The Rockies were outscored 12-1 by Florida in the first inning of that series. They have been outscored 18-1 in the first in the first nine games on the homestand and 27-9 in the first inning this season. Rockies starters have failed to pitch at least six innings in 10 of 21 games this season, including four of the past six. Kennedy is not to blame as he is a perfect 4-4 in that category making the other starters 7 out of 17 in that category.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Perez) at Milwaukee Brewers (Obermueller) 7:05 PM ET
Pittsburgh (Perez) –106 (2 Units)
Oliver Perez has quietly started the season a roll. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his 3 starts in 2004 with the Pirates winning the third start as well. He is coming off a 6-hit shutout against the Reds in his last outing, striking out a season high 10 batters. His WHIP is an outstanding 0.73 his last 2 starts and he has walked only 5 batters all season. He's put together a solid run, despite not working on a traditional five-day rotation. Because of his heavy workload in winter ball and some eratic efforts in spring training, the Pirates have been extra careful with Perez so far this season. He has had starts pushed back to keep staff ace Kip Wells on his regular turns, which also allows Perez to work on his mechanics with pitching coach Spin Williams. It has worked out well as his mechanics have improved dramatically. Wes Obermueller has been up and down this season with the downers coming at home. He is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA at home, not making it out of the 6th inning in either of his starts. This will be his first start since April 22nd as he was coming out of the bullpen the last week with just one appearance under his belt. Milwaukee is hitting only .188 against lefties this season including a dismal .156 at home. The Pirates were 7-10 against the Brewers last year, including a 2-5 record at Miller Park. They start the season 1-0 after a 4-2 win on Friday.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Johnson) at Philadelphia Phillies (Padilla) 7:05 PM ET
Arizona (Johnson) –110 (2 Units)
We will once again jump on Randy Johnson who is coming off another stellar performance against the Cubs, a team he has dominated throughout his career. The Phillies are another team that Johnson has always pitched well against. He is 7-1 in 13 career starts with a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Arizona is 7-0 his last 7 starts against the Phillies. He has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once in that span. Prior to his gem against the Cubs was a complete game win at San Diego and in between was a game that doesn’t look good on paper but was due to only one bad inning. Vicente Padilla continues to be just average. He has a 3.87 ERA but a very high 1.37 WHIP and he has yet to win this season. The Phillies are 1-3 in his starts this year and they are 1-5 in his last 6 dating back to last season. He gets no run support as the Phillies have scored one run in his 23 1/3 innings this season. But it isn’t just this season. With his 3.13 ERA last year, ninth in the National League, he might have had 18 wins instead of the 14 he got. The Phillies scored two runs or fewer in eight of his non-winning starts. The Phillies are hitting only .246 against lefties this season while Arizona is tagging righties at a .280 clip including .307 their last 10. The loss of Richie Sexton hurts the offense there have been plenty of other weapons at the plate recently to make up for it.
MLB Total of the Week
Kansas City Royals (Villacis) at New York Yankees (Lieber) 1:05 PM ET
Over 10 Kansas City/New York Yankees -110 (3 Units)
Jon Lieber is back after not having thrown a Major League pitch since August of 2002. his endurance will obviously be an issue following Tommy John surgery. Lieber, who pitched one spring training game for the Yankees and three minor league games as part of his rehab assignment, will not be held to a strict pitch count so they are going to see what they can get out of him. He allowed just two hits in seven scoreless innings while pitching for Class-A Tampa in a rehab start on Sunday but he will be facing some hot Kansas City bats that were cooled off for a night by Javier Vazquez. The Royals promoted Eduardo Villacis from Double-A Wichita to make his Major League debut. He started just two games in his five outings for the Wranglers and there will certainly be nothing more intimidating than making his fist start in the big leagues at Yankee Stadium. Villacis has been primarily a reliever in his minor league career. The Royals decided on converting him to a starter this year but he switched back and forth early this season. Kansas City is hitting righties hard, batting .288 for the season and .313 their last 10 games. The New York offense is finally starting to come around, scoring 27 runs their last 4 games after going 5 straight games without scoring more than 3 runs. They are hitting only .241 against righties this season but that number is going up, as they are at .243 their last 10. Certainly not great but much better than a week ago. After going 5 straight games of hitting .226 or less, their last 4 has seen them hit .290 or above in each (.313, .290, .294 and .290)
Baltimore Orioles (Bedard) at Cleveland Indians (Sabathia) 1:05 PM ET
Cleveland (Sabathia) –1.5 +158 (2 Units)
The Indians are playing well and their offense is really coming to life. They have won 3 out of 4 games for the first time this season and their ace C.C. Sabathia returns after missing some time with an injury. We would normally shy away from a pitcher in his fist game coming back from an arm problem but this was a strange yet minor injury. The doctors concurred with the original prognosis with an irritated bicep tendon. He tested his shoulder by tossing a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday. "I didn't feel a thing," Sabathia said. "I'm excited." Before the injury, he was pitching fantastic even though he was only 1-0. He has a solid 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The lack of offense and the suspect bullpen were the reasons he was left with 2 no decisions after leaving following solid performances. Dating back to last season, Cleveland is only 2-5 in his last 7 starts but he allowed no more than 3 earned runs in any of those games. With the offense picking things up, he should get some much overdue support. Erik Bedard will be making his 3rd start for the Orioles and the first two were anything but pretty. He was taken out in the third inning in both starts due to not being productive as well as high pitch counts. No command will spell trouble once again. With the way the offense is hitting, the 1.5 runs should not come into play.
Plays go 2-1 on Friday with the Braves/Rockies getting postponed. The A’s beat us with just 4 hits…unreal. That same pitching matchup is going in game 1 between Atlanta and Colorado so it will be a play again on Saturday. We have 5 plays going for today and tonight.
MLB
Atlanta Braves (Hampton) at Colorado Rockies (Kennedy) 3:05 PM ET (makeup from Friday)
Colorado (Kennedy) –1.5 +163 (2 Units)
We all know the problems Mike Hampton had in Colorado in the two years he was there. He had a 5.71 ERA in 2001 at Coors Field and followed that up with a 5.58 ERA in 2002. He went back once last season and even though he picked up the win, he didn’t pitch well, allowing 4 runs on 11 hits over 6.2 innings. This season he is 0-2 with a 12.54 ERA and 2.57 WHIP away from Turner Field and his worse outing was against the lowly Mets if that says anything. Overall, he has just one quality stat in 4 tries as he has allowed at least 9 hits and 6 runs in 3 of his 4 starts. Atlanta is 3-5 in his last 8 starts and if not for an 18 run outburst by the Braves in that Mets game, they would be 2-6. Things should only get worse as he heads back to Colorado. Joe Kennedy has been superb for the Rockies as they are 3-1 in his 4 starts and more impressively, the only loss was on the road and even that wasn’t a bad start. He is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA at Coors this season as he has given up only 2 runs in each of his last 2 starts. As long as Colorado can get out of the first innings, they should be just fine. The Rockies were outscored 12-1 by Florida in the first inning of that series. They have been outscored 18-1 in the first in the first nine games on the homestand and 27-9 in the first inning this season. Rockies starters have failed to pitch at least six innings in 10 of 21 games this season, including four of the past six. Kennedy is not to blame as he is a perfect 4-4 in that category making the other starters 7 out of 17 in that category.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Perez) at Milwaukee Brewers (Obermueller) 7:05 PM ET
Pittsburgh (Perez) –106 (2 Units)
Oliver Perez has quietly started the season a roll. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his 3 starts in 2004 with the Pirates winning the third start as well. He is coming off a 6-hit shutout against the Reds in his last outing, striking out a season high 10 batters. His WHIP is an outstanding 0.73 his last 2 starts and he has walked only 5 batters all season. He's put together a solid run, despite not working on a traditional five-day rotation. Because of his heavy workload in winter ball and some eratic efforts in spring training, the Pirates have been extra careful with Perez so far this season. He has had starts pushed back to keep staff ace Kip Wells on his regular turns, which also allows Perez to work on his mechanics with pitching coach Spin Williams. It has worked out well as his mechanics have improved dramatically. Wes Obermueller has been up and down this season with the downers coming at home. He is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA at home, not making it out of the 6th inning in either of his starts. This will be his first start since April 22nd as he was coming out of the bullpen the last week with just one appearance under his belt. Milwaukee is hitting only .188 against lefties this season including a dismal .156 at home. The Pirates were 7-10 against the Brewers last year, including a 2-5 record at Miller Park. They start the season 1-0 after a 4-2 win on Friday.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Johnson) at Philadelphia Phillies (Padilla) 7:05 PM ET
Arizona (Johnson) –110 (2 Units)
We will once again jump on Randy Johnson who is coming off another stellar performance against the Cubs, a team he has dominated throughout his career. The Phillies are another team that Johnson has always pitched well against. He is 7-1 in 13 career starts with a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Arizona is 7-0 his last 7 starts against the Phillies. He has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once in that span. Prior to his gem against the Cubs was a complete game win at San Diego and in between was a game that doesn’t look good on paper but was due to only one bad inning. Vicente Padilla continues to be just average. He has a 3.87 ERA but a very high 1.37 WHIP and he has yet to win this season. The Phillies are 1-3 in his starts this year and they are 1-5 in his last 6 dating back to last season. He gets no run support as the Phillies have scored one run in his 23 1/3 innings this season. But it isn’t just this season. With his 3.13 ERA last year, ninth in the National League, he might have had 18 wins instead of the 14 he got. The Phillies scored two runs or fewer in eight of his non-winning starts. The Phillies are hitting only .246 against lefties this season while Arizona is tagging righties at a .280 clip including .307 their last 10. The loss of Richie Sexton hurts the offense there have been plenty of other weapons at the plate recently to make up for it.
MLB Total of the Week
Kansas City Royals (Villacis) at New York Yankees (Lieber) 1:05 PM ET
Over 10 Kansas City/New York Yankees -110 (3 Units)
Jon Lieber is back after not having thrown a Major League pitch since August of 2002. his endurance will obviously be an issue following Tommy John surgery. Lieber, who pitched one spring training game for the Yankees and three minor league games as part of his rehab assignment, will not be held to a strict pitch count so they are going to see what they can get out of him. He allowed just two hits in seven scoreless innings while pitching for Class-A Tampa in a rehab start on Sunday but he will be facing some hot Kansas City bats that were cooled off for a night by Javier Vazquez. The Royals promoted Eduardo Villacis from Double-A Wichita to make his Major League debut. He started just two games in his five outings for the Wranglers and there will certainly be nothing more intimidating than making his fist start in the big leagues at Yankee Stadium. Villacis has been primarily a reliever in his minor league career. The Royals decided on converting him to a starter this year but he switched back and forth early this season. Kansas City is hitting righties hard, batting .288 for the season and .313 their last 10 games. The New York offense is finally starting to come around, scoring 27 runs their last 4 games after going 5 straight games without scoring more than 3 runs. They are hitting only .241 against righties this season but that number is going up, as they are at .243 their last 10. Certainly not great but much better than a week ago. After going 5 straight games of hitting .226 or less, their last 4 has seen them hit .290 or above in each (.313, .290, .294 and .290)
Baltimore Orioles (Bedard) at Cleveland Indians (Sabathia) 1:05 PM ET
Cleveland (Sabathia) –1.5 +158 (2 Units)
The Indians are playing well and their offense is really coming to life. They have won 3 out of 4 games for the first time this season and their ace C.C. Sabathia returns after missing some time with an injury. We would normally shy away from a pitcher in his fist game coming back from an arm problem but this was a strange yet minor injury. The doctors concurred with the original prognosis with an irritated bicep tendon. He tested his shoulder by tossing a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday. "I didn't feel a thing," Sabathia said. "I'm excited." Before the injury, he was pitching fantastic even though he was only 1-0. He has a solid 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The lack of offense and the suspect bullpen were the reasons he was left with 2 no decisions after leaving following solid performances. Dating back to last season, Cleveland is only 2-5 in his last 7 starts but he allowed no more than 3 earned runs in any of those games. With the offense picking things up, he should get some much overdue support. Erik Bedard will be making his 3rd start for the Orioles and the first two were anything but pretty. He was taken out in the third inning in both starts due to not being productive as well as high pitch counts. No command will spell trouble once again. With the way the offense is hitting, the 1.5 runs should not come into play.
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