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**InsiderEdge** · 04-15-2004, 10:33 PM

The under between the Mets and Braves capped off a perfect 4-0 sweep, picking up +9.72 units for members and new signups. We said we’d bounce back from the bad luck on Wednesday and we did just that.

Cincinnati Reds (Acevedo) at Philadelphia Phillies (Padilla) 1:05 pm EST

Philadelphia (Padilla) –1.5 +124 (3 Units)

This game is more about the offense of the Phillies however since the pitching history is very limited. It’s amazing that they are averaging only 2.3 rpg this season with such a potent offense but it has taken them time to get going. The good thing is that only 2 of their first 6 losses were by 3 runs or more. The pitching has been good enough to keep them in games and with a few more hits here and there, they would be looking at a much better record. The starters *****’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start. Rightfielder Bobby Abreu is 3 for 25 (.120). Last season, he started 3 for 26 (.115) before he went 2 for 4 against the Braves in the eighth game of the season and then went on a tear.

Florida Marlins (Pavano) at Montreal Expos (Day) 2:35 pm EST

Florida (Pavano) –120 (2 Units)

The Marlins are hot and the Expos are not. Florida has won 6 straight while the Expos have started the season just 2-6. The Marlins have owned Montreal as well, winning 16 of the last 20 meetings. Montreal is just 2-5 on their home turf during that span. Carl Pavano is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP against his former team. He was 3-1 last season with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.87 ratio. He struck out 22 Expos while walking only 3. Zack Day has started against Florida twice and walked away a loser both times. He has a 7.80 ERA in 15 total innings against the Marlins but that jumps to a 9.28 ERA in the two starts, which lasted a total of only 10.2 innings. Day has yet to win at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in his 4 career starts. The Marlins starters have gone 4-1 with a 1.61 earned-run average. Opposing batters have combined to hit just .182 against them. They have combined with the bullpen for two shutouts. The staff's lone loss belongs to Brad Penny, who dropped a 3-2 decision to the Expos last week. The bullpen has been outstanding as well. They have an ERA of 1.42 to lead the Majors and expected to be the team's Achilles' heel, the bullpen hasn't allowed a run since opening day, notching two wins and five saves while holding opponents to just three hits in its past 9 2/3 innings.

Atlanta Braves (Ramirez) at New York Mets (Leiter) 7:10 pm EST

Under 8.5 Atlanta (Ramirez)/NY Mets (Leiter) –105 (2 Units)

The history is very good here between these pitchers for this to be a low scoring game. Also, both teams have been lighting each other up on offense this season, averaging over 17 rpg in their 5 meetings this season, which gives us some good value here. It is important to note than neither of these pitchers were involved in any of those games. Ramirez is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 4 career starts against the Mets. He shut out the Cubs in 7 innings in his lone start this season. Al Leiter has always pitched well against the Braves, posting a 2.69 ERA in 25 career starts. Obviously a lot of the history that goes way back means nothing but he went 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA against Atlanta a season ago. As a matter of fact, the last 3 seasons he is 4-2 with a 2.37 ERA against the Braves. Besides the games against the Braves, the Mets are 5-1 under this season, scoring only 5.7 total runs combined in those games. The Braves are 4-2 under in their other games, scoring 7.0 total runs in those contests. Atlanta is hitting only .261 against lefties this season while the Mets are hitting just .248 against righties.

Toronto Blue Jays (Halladay) at Detroit Tigers (Johnson) 1:05 pm EST

Toronto (Halladay) –1.5 –119 (2 Units)

We look for Roy Halladay to rebound from his opening day loss against the Tigers and continue his dominance against Detroit. Halladay is now 9-2 in 10 career starts with a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP against the Tigers. He is 3-1 in 4 starts at Comerica Park and he has an amazing 20 strikeouts to go with only 1 walk. He has only walked 6 Tigers in his career and two of those came last week. He followed that performance up with a very good one at Boston even though he incurred the loss as he allowed 3 runs in 7 innings. Jason Johnson got the rare win against Halladay in that game as he pitched 6 innings of shutout ball. That was only his 2nd win in 15 starts against Toronto. He is now 2-8 with 6.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP lifetime against the Jays. He has not pitched well in Detroit either as he is 1-3 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.94 ratio at Comerica. That includes a shelling against the twins in his last outing as he gave up 6 runs in just over 2 innings.

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