Alan Cashman MLB Thread: Guaranteed Picks For Less than $20/Month

[AlanCashman]

Sunday 8/4

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White Sox at Phillies
Pick: White Sox +0.5/ First 5/+100/Small

This has been a competitive series.

Lopez has allowed 2 or fewer runs in his last 4 starts. He has a 3.77 ERA in his last 7 starts.

WhiteSox hitters are batting .429 (15-35) vs Smyly. WhiteSox are hitting .275 in their last 10 vs LHP.

Smyly has been good over his last 2 starts but he has been released by 2 teams already this season. He is 30 years old and had not pitched in MLB since 2016 prior to this season. He had an ERA of 8.42 with Texas this season in 51 IP. I feel like we know who Smyly is as a pitcher right now.

WhiteSox bats will need to wake up as they have scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games.

Both bullpens have ERA under 3 over the last 10 games so this is a play on these 2 starting pitchers

[AlanCashman]

Monday 8/5

Braves at Twins

Soroka vs Odorizzi

Pick: ATL -105/Lean


Soroka 2.87 ERA last 7 starts
Soroka 6-0, 1.20 ERA on the road

Odorizzi has allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of last 6 home starts
Odorizzi 7.98 ERA last 3 starts
ATL hitters are batting .353 (30 for 85), .765 SLG vs Odorizzi

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[AlanCashman]

Tue 8/6 MLB

Rangers at Indians
Jurado vs Plesac

Pick: CLE -0.5/-120 First 5 Innings/Small

Both teams are playing well and both bullpens have ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games.
This is a play on the starting pitchers here.

Jurado 5.20 ERA in night games
Plesac 4-0, 2.10 ERA in night games

Jurado 6.19 ERA last 3 starts
Plesac 3.00 ERA last 3 starts

Rangers 5-8 in Jurado’s starts
Indians 9-3 in Plesac’s starts

Plesac allowed 2 hits over 7 innings in only start this season vs Rangers in Texas

Jurado has allowed 3 or more runs in 9 of his last 10 starts

Right hand batters are batting .308 vs Jurado this season
Jurdado is 1-2, 7.80 ERA since All-Star break

Jurado ERA By Innings First 5
1st 6.23
2nd 7.42
3rd 7.07
4th 1.88
5th 5.56

Opponents are batting .205 vs Plesac in home starts
Plesac is 3-0, 2.57 ERA since All-Star break


MLB

Braves at Twins
Foltynewicz vs Berrios
Pick Options (Pick 1)
MIN -1.5/+104/Small
Or
Min -0.5/-120 First 5 Innings/Small

Berrios is 23-12 with a 3.28 ERA in his career at home. Foltynewicz is 2-5 this season with an ERA of 6.37. Foltynewicz allowed 7 runs in 5.1 IP in his only career start at Minnesota. That along with Atlanta’s bullpen ERA of 6.47 over the last 10 games could line up nicely for -1.5. Run lines are always dicey.

Foltynewicz 5.45 ERA last 7 starts
Berrios 2.66 ERA last 7 starts

Foltynewicz 1-2, 6.55 ERA in road starts
Berrios 5-2, 2.10 ERA in home starts

Foltynewicz 1-3, 8.35 ERA in night games
Berrios 5-3, 2.53 ERA in night games

Braves are 4-7 in Foltynewicz’s starts
Twins are 14-8 in Berrios’ starts

Braves 4-11 last 15 TUE games
Twins 25-9 in last 34 home starts by Berrios

Twins starting pitchers have a 2.35 ERA over the last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

Sat 8/10 MLB

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MLB

Diamondbacks +155 at Dodgers -175
Young vs Maeda

I believe Arizona could be a live dog here today.

ARI is 30-21 over the last 3 seasons vs LA
ARI is 8-3 last 11 Saturday games
LA is batting .209 vs LHP last 10 games
Maeda has not had a win since May 31

Maeda has allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He is 0-4, 6.16 ERA in his last 7 starts. August has been his worst month over his career with ERA of 5.00. Maeda has a 4.54 career ERA vs ARI and 5.24 ERA against them over his last 5 starts. The most glaring stat is that LA has lost 6 of the last 7 games Maeda has started vs ARI.

Alex Young in his first season has gone 4-1, 2.60 ERA for ARI. He has only allowed more than 2 runs once in his 6 starts. He is 3-0, 1.93 ERA in road starts. Opponents are batting .167 vs Young this season.

I like the Dbacks in some fashion here. Their bullpen has an ERA of 5.19 over the last 10 games so that is worrisome. Still going to be value on a first 5 Inning play. A couple of options, Just choose 1 that you like the best here. ARI is +149 for the first 5 innings.

Pick Options
ARI Over 1.5/-132 First 5 Innings/Small
Or
ARI +0.5/-105 First 5 Innings/Small