Tweet
To BettorChat members.... I'm offering my Premium 100 play for free today… full disclosure, I am 0-4 in L4 Premium plays… which my customers are fully aware. However, I am also 27-19 overall in Premium plays… (27-15 before the downturn) and 8-7 in NFL Premiums (5-2 in L7 NFL Premium plays).
I did OK in the NFL yesterday going 4-2, but one loss was a Premium loss with the Saints -10. The one thing I was sure Bears couldn’t do, Trubisky specifically, was backdoor the point spread. With a 14-point Saints lead, that’s exactly what Bears did, specifically Trubisky.
The Bears stuffed the Saints in the second half with only 3 points. I fully blame the Saints for that with iffy play calls on two short third downs and a dropped pass that for sure puts the Saints in the redzone, instead a punt. I remain a little bitter.
Still the Saints were holding Bears to only 6 points, 3 per half, covering the spread with 14-point lead; 17-6 and driving mid-way through the 4th Q to extend the lead. Then the Saints fumbled the ball on the Bear 28, with 7:28 left.
“Don’t panic,” I said, “just stop the Bears, the game will be in hand.” Then Trubisky ran clear down the middle of field untouched for 43 yards. He later drove the Bears to a penalty aided TD to cut a 14-point lead to 8… WTF.
Saints had 3 mins to answer, maybe we can break a long TD and avoid Victory formation, which they couldn’t even do… OK, our best hope is a Pick 6 anyway… Well… we got the INT and zagging down the sideline, only 1 lineman stood between the clear space and a cover, but the Saints DB was tackled with seconds left… so close.
Could’ve, should’ve been a huge NFL day, instead was just decent… Thank You Mark Ingram!
Denver @ KC -7 -110 (42)
KC has won and covered the last 3 vs Denver; an underdog twice. Denver (-3) pushed their opening game, a win against LA Chargers, then they destroyed the Cowboys. Since, Denver has just 1 win, vs OAK by 6, laying 3.5. Just 2 ATS covers, DAL and OAK.
At Buffalo, Denver begins to show that they can’t score. A decent Bills Def picked Denver twice, caused 1 fumble with 3 sacks… vs Oak they were sacked 3 more times and picked once…
Against the Gints and Chargers the same pattern, in addition to only 10 Denver points combined and the only TD came late vs NYG when the game was in hand. A strong defense for sure in Denver with Pro Bowl talent in a few positions, but they cannot score or sustain drives of late. This leaves the defense to protect Denver’s chance at low scoring wins… it’s starting to take its toll.
KC possess a strong running game led RB Kareem Hunt who has 100-yard rushing games in 7 straight, the first rookie to accomplish this, in fact the only NFL player to reach this record. As Alex Smith manages the game using the running attack as a key to setting up his short to mid passing game.
Now-a-days, Smith is becoming more of a down field passer with three 300-yard games and counting. Denver is 2nd in the league against the run, 79 yds per game… KC is 6th in rushing 129 yds per game… we shall soon see how that works out.
As KC made their opening statement beating the Patriots in Foxboro in week 1, the plan was working well for the next 5 straight games. Then Pittsburgh caught KC flat, but even that game could’ve changed on a play that bounced well for Antonio Brown. Instead of a Pick 6, or at least a turnover, the play turned into a game winning TD for Pitt. Then Oakland needed several things to go perfectly for them to be victorious until the backdoor late TD steals the win from KC and point spread cover. I know it well since I had played both with Premium plays.
At the end of the day, I see Denver reeling, now a 7-point dog, Siemian isn’t the answer and we know that Osweiler isn’t either. Scoring around 16 points (avg.) vs opponents not named Dallas is not getting it done.
You can say that Denver is due, back against the wall, need a statement win, and all would be true. But how did they react after being embarrassed by NY on National TV… they got shut out by the Chargers… Now back to back road games against a KC team that also has back to back losses. Both teams are anxious to get back on track…
I believe KC is better equipped to make this statement… West is back from concussion which helps round out the RB position and another weapon to spell Hunt. Will KC win by 8 points or more is the question.
I think the answer is YES. KC will roll tonight, probably not in blow out fashion, but it wouldn’t surprise. KC should be able to manage 3 TD’s and 2 FGs… that’s five drives that end in points which seems like a reasonable prediction. Denver is stingy on Defense Yards per pass on the road, but I point to playing Buffalo and LAC for this stat.
KC holds a 44% to 32% offensive 3rd down conversion ratio over Denver; home/away. So even though Denver runs more plays per game than KC 72 to 64 on average, KC should be able to continue drives and keep field position in their favor.
Denver however, is good at getting teams off the field with a 32% opponent conversion ratio on the road, but that again it's against Buff and LAC. However, in Yards per Pass attempt, and Yards per Point, KC has a large edge over Denver (and most teams) at home and that’s based on games vs. Philly, Skins, and Pitt … a better overall group than LAC and Buff.
Final Score: KC 31 Denver 17
Lean to the over 42
I did OK in the NFL yesterday going 4-2, but one loss was a Premium loss with the Saints -10. The one thing I was sure Bears couldn’t do, Trubisky specifically, was backdoor the point spread. With a 14-point Saints lead, that’s exactly what Bears did, specifically Trubisky.
The Bears stuffed the Saints in the second half with only 3 points. I fully blame the Saints for that with iffy play calls on two short third downs and a dropped pass that for sure puts the Saints in the redzone, instead a punt. I remain a little bitter.
Still the Saints were holding Bears to only 6 points, 3 per half, covering the spread with 14-point lead; 17-6 and driving mid-way through the 4th Q to extend the lead. Then the Saints fumbled the ball on the Bear 28, with 7:28 left.
“Don’t panic,” I said, “just stop the Bears, the game will be in hand.” Then Trubisky ran clear down the middle of field untouched for 43 yards. He later drove the Bears to a penalty aided TD to cut a 14-point lead to 8… WTF.
Saints had 3 mins to answer, maybe we can break a long TD and avoid Victory formation, which they couldn’t even do… OK, our best hope is a Pick 6 anyway… Well… we got the INT and zagging down the sideline, only 1 lineman stood between the clear space and a cover, but the Saints DB was tackled with seconds left… so close.
Could’ve, should’ve been a huge NFL day, instead was just decent… Thank You Mark Ingram!
Denver @ KC -7 -110 (42)
KC has won and covered the last 3 vs Denver; an underdog twice. Denver (-3) pushed their opening game, a win against LA Chargers, then they destroyed the Cowboys. Since, Denver has just 1 win, vs OAK by 6, laying 3.5. Just 2 ATS covers, DAL and OAK.
At Buffalo, Denver begins to show that they can’t score. A decent Bills Def picked Denver twice, caused 1 fumble with 3 sacks… vs Oak they were sacked 3 more times and picked once…
Against the Gints and Chargers the same pattern, in addition to only 10 Denver points combined and the only TD came late vs NYG when the game was in hand. A strong defense for sure in Denver with Pro Bowl talent in a few positions, but they cannot score or sustain drives of late. This leaves the defense to protect Denver’s chance at low scoring wins… it’s starting to take its toll.
KC possess a strong running game led RB Kareem Hunt who has 100-yard rushing games in 7 straight, the first rookie to accomplish this, in fact the only NFL player to reach this record. As Alex Smith manages the game using the running attack as a key to setting up his short to mid passing game.
Now-a-days, Smith is becoming more of a down field passer with three 300-yard games and counting. Denver is 2nd in the league against the run, 79 yds per game… KC is 6th in rushing 129 yds per game… we shall soon see how that works out.
As KC made their opening statement beating the Patriots in Foxboro in week 1, the plan was working well for the next 5 straight games. Then Pittsburgh caught KC flat, but even that game could’ve changed on a play that bounced well for Antonio Brown. Instead of a Pick 6, or at least a turnover, the play turned into a game winning TD for Pitt. Then Oakland needed several things to go perfectly for them to be victorious until the backdoor late TD steals the win from KC and point spread cover. I know it well since I had played both with Premium plays.
At the end of the day, I see Denver reeling, now a 7-point dog, Siemian isn’t the answer and we know that Osweiler isn’t either. Scoring around 16 points (avg.) vs opponents not named Dallas is not getting it done.
You can say that Denver is due, back against the wall, need a statement win, and all would be true. But how did they react after being embarrassed by NY on National TV… they got shut out by the Chargers… Now back to back road games against a KC team that also has back to back losses. Both teams are anxious to get back on track…
I believe KC is better equipped to make this statement… West is back from concussion which helps round out the RB position and another weapon to spell Hunt. Will KC win by 8 points or more is the question.
I think the answer is YES. KC will roll tonight, probably not in blow out fashion, but it wouldn’t surprise. KC should be able to manage 3 TD’s and 2 FGs… that’s five drives that end in points which seems like a reasonable prediction. Denver is stingy on Defense Yards per pass on the road, but I point to playing Buffalo and LAC for this stat.
KC holds a 44% to 32% offensive 3rd down conversion ratio over Denver; home/away. So even though Denver runs more plays per game than KC 72 to 64 on average, KC should be able to continue drives and keep field position in their favor.
Denver however, is good at getting teams off the field with a 32% opponent conversion ratio on the road, but that again it's against Buff and LAC. However, in Yards per Pass attempt, and Yards per Point, KC has a large edge over Denver (and most teams) at home and that’s based on games vs. Philly, Skins, and Pitt … a better overall group than LAC and Buff.
Final Score: KC 31 Denver 17
Lean to the over 42