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Week 14 Recap and Free Play

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  • Week 14 Recap and Free Play

    We had a solid week going 4-3 in football (including a best bet winner with No. Illinois) and 2-0 in basketball. This brings us to 56% in NCAAF, 59% in NFL, and 66% on our best bets, for a total of 15.9 Units.

    Take advantage of our midseason special of $99 for the rest of the season. This offer also includes
    basketball thru the Super Bowl and a copy off my e-book "The Winning Edge" which covers the
    fundamentals of football and basketball, money management, and tips for selecting a handicapper
    The book is also available for $5.99

    visit ACDinero.com - Home Page - Sports Handicapping Service - Handicapping the NFL, NBA, and NCAA. for more information

    NCAAF

    Now that the regular season is over, it is time to look ahead to the bowl games, which promise to offer some nice opportunities. Some things to look at when analyzing bowl games:

    Who is in a bowl that they do not want to be in? With bowl games, motivation is a key factor. Usually, these teams lost their last game, either in a conference championship or to their arch rival. These teams are Georgia, Nebraska, USC, Rutgers, and UCLA

    Who lost their last game to their rival? This is kind of related to #1, where the loss drops you on the bowl pecking order. These teams are Mississippi St, Washington, Clemson, Oregon St, and Arizona

    Who usually plays well, or poorly in bowl games. This is basically determined how coaches prepare for games. Is it a real game or a reward for a good season. Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Pitt have notriously played poorly in bowls. Conversly, The SEC, Utah St, and Boise St have played well in bowls

    Focus on defense. This is always a good strategy, but even more so when we have a decent layoff between games. Often offenses, especially timing offenses like the spread and read option offenses, take a while to get going in bowl games.

    Finally, as always, play against mistake prone teams. Layoffs often tend to create even more mistakes in bowl games.
    NFL

    Its the time of the year where players and coaches start auditioning for their next jobs. For teams going nowhere, it is the young guys or guys in the last year of their contract. For coaches, there could be as many as 10 head coaching jobs open:

    Former coaches: Mike Nolan (SF) Todd Haley (Pitt) Josh McDaniels (NE)
    College coaches: Chip Kelly (Oregon) David Shaw (Stanford) Bill O'Brien (Penn St)
    Coordinators: Mike McCoy (Den) Jay Gruden (Cinn) Perry Fewell (NYG) Greg Romans (SF)

    FREE PLAY NCAAB:

    South Dakota St vs Minnesota
    Play on: South Dakota St +15

    Minnesota enters the season with a young, but talented backcourt. There is a little bit of pressure on Tubby Smith and the Gophers this season to make a run. The problem is they are in a tough conference and a bit below the top tier teams. They shoot the ball pretty well at 46% and aren't bad on defense, giving up only 41% from the field. Meanwhile, South Dakota St enters the season as the favorites of the Summitt conference. They are an experienced team, as they return 4 starters. They are a solid team offensively, shooting 46% from the floor and 39% from three. I don't expect Minnesota to lose straight up, but 15 is way too many points to lay to a good mid major team.
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