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Big Sam, Back in Black, after a brief absence, I am back and ready to win…
Plays tonight on NCAA Football and Yanks/Rangers
Plays tonight on NCAA Football and Yanks/Rangers
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October 15, 2010
Cincinnati @ Louisville +3 (57.5)
5 Units Louisville Cardinals +3
Cardinals have a little momentum on their side as they head toward the second half of the season and the same could be said for the visiting Bearcats. These new coaches are vying for a bowl spot and have it in reach although the Bearcats are one win behind Louisville in this quest.
Louisville crushed Memphis last week 56-0 and edged out a feisty Arkansas St team that were 20 point dogs and hung in losing by 10. Neither team is worth getting too excited about in terms of quality wins but win none the less and the offense is clicking, will it translate to this home affair with a dangerous conference opponent?
Cincinnati hammered Miami of Ohio 45-3, stopping a losing streak of two. The last two losses were against Oklahoma and NC State. You might say Oklahoma was a quality start is the losing effort as 14 dogs and losing by 2 while NC State has shown that they are a solid team at home so losing this one hurt but is understandable. The Fresno State loss is concerning; another tough road loss as 2 pt dog, losing by 2 TD’s.
So who the edge… Louisville at home against a even opponent… favor the home team. So why is Cincinnati favored?
Cincinnati has a few decent veteran players on offense that can exploit the weaknesses of the Cardinals smallish defense especially in the D backfield. Collaros is having a decent year completing 63% and 12 TD’s with 1 INT. While the Cardinals lead the Big East in total offense, QB Froman has as many yards as Collaros, but only 9 TD’s and 4 INT’s.
The Bearcats are in last place in pass defense and Froman has looked pretty good passing to WR Bellamy, coupled with the rushing success of Bilal Powell, 8th in the country.
This will be a big chance for the Cardinals to step towards a solid bowl appearance in front of the home fans, while the Bearcats will have a hole to climb out of going home to host So Florida and Syracuse before traveling to Morgantown. This is a needed win and without it Cincinnati may not qualify for post season.
Louisville will control the game with a more balanced approach, play better on defense and rise to the cheers from the 12th man to take a big step forward and getting win #1 in the Big East and more momentum to host the Huskies next. Louisville will exhibit complete focus on national TV. Even though the Yanks will steal some viewers, the fan base will be tuned in.
Cardinals avenge last years blowout loss at Cincinnati and take down the Bearcats buy 7...
5 UNITS on Louisville… Cardinals 31 Bearcats 24.
GAME 1 AL-CS
New York Yankees (-147, o/u 8) @ Texas RangersCC Sabathia takes the hill in game 1 at Texas and the Yanks couldn’t be happier. Yankees have the rotation set up just like they wanted and don’t have to face Lee until the 3rd game and also avoid pitting Hughes against Lee as well.
CJ Wilson goes for the Rangers who will get the series started since Lee had to go in the 5th game against the Rays. Wilson has finally reached the big stage; a converted reliever now leads the Rangers in front of the friendly home fans as the visitors bring their best.
Wilson has done a great job in the regular season, (15-8.. 3.35), but is 0-3 career wise vs. NYY and a 4.12. CC is 8-3 vs. Texas in his career with 4.29.
This season, Wilson was 0-1 and 5.65 vs. NYY, but the Rangers did pull out two extra innings wins in 2 starts Wilson had in August and September and at home. The loss was a rain shortened April game vs. CC.
In most games Wilson says his high pitch count was to blame for the lack of success personally. NYY are one of the most patient teams at the plate and will likely continue to be so in this series. If Wilson is getting the first pitch in for a strike, it’ll put a lot of pressure on the Yanks to put the ball in play.
If the first pitch is a strike often tonight, I’ll be confident in the Rangers, if not Wilson’s pitch count will be up and their likely be runners on and runners in.
The Yanks have an incredible line-up; it’ll take a complete focused effort to grind out a win in any game. Will Texas have that focus and skill to get it done.
I think so, I believe Washington will keep the team loose enough to play well and slay the big bad Yanks, the bats are there for the Rangers as Hamilton continues to improve. It’s not the Yanks line up and most of the money will be on them, but there is value and taking the Rangers and this is one.
Wilson faced a pretty strong line-up vs. Rays in game 2 on the DS on the road; a two hitter through 6.1 innings. Being at home will be a calming and confidence building experience for Wilson. He’s faced the Yanks twice this year in Arlington and did OK and the Rangers won both of those games in extra innings.
If the Yanks are going to hit softer than normal it’s likely going to be against a lefty. Sabathia has been brilliant at times, but he can give up runs. Twice in the last 6 starts he allowed 5 and 7 ER’s and 3 ER’s in two others. His only effort vs. Texas was a 1 ER effort in April in a shortened 6 inning game.
Rangers have 4 wins in the last 5 vs. the Yanks while in Texas and this first one will be the most important while in Arlington. I am going to lean on the Rangers and the Over in two modest plays to get the series started.
2 UNITS on Texas Rangers + 135
2 UNITS Yanks/Rangers OVER 8 runs
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