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Big Sam Saturday late Picks, 40 Dime play two 20's and more
40 Dimes – Cincinnati Reds on Run Line - Even
Cubs @ Reds, 7:10 EST
R. Wells v. Arroyo
Take Cincinnati tonight for a number of reasons the first of which is big mo, momentum. Following an OK road trip losing only a few at the tail end against other play-off hopefuls, the Reds get back home against a reeling Cubs team that is ready to settle down into the losing team they really are after beating up on the Nats. The Nats battled the Cubs but the Pinella thing had the eye on Chicago and the pitching match ups favored the Cubs there.
Now the Reds come in with Arroyo who is En Fuego. Only St Louie got to Arroyo lately and those darn Nats a month or so ago… otherwise his 2 or under ER’s per game and at least 6-7 innings is outstanding. He 2 hit the Cubs in July through 6 innings and 5 hit them in August with ZERO runs earned in either.
Randy Wells is not the worst pitcher you’ll bet against but 2-5 away with 5.12 era had faced the Reds Aug. 7th giving up 3 earned in a 4-3 loss. His July effort was much better in a 3-1 win but both games were in Chicago.
20 Dimes – UNDER @ Mets – (6.5 runs)
Astros @ Mets, 7:10 EST
Myers v. Jo. Santana
Everyone is on the Mets as a decent sized favorite, and you can argue they should be. They’re at home and Santana is the man in Queens, but Myers is no slouch. Myers is 3.86 on the road and the Stros are 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Being the hard luck man shipped from Philly, he’s been the rock at Houston and on any contending team, he would likely be a #2 or #3 in the rotation.
The total is low and the Vegas is begging for an over bet, but every game this year has been under the total, the highest being 7 runs Aug. 17 and the total was 7.5 with Figueroa; put in Myers and you get the 3-2 game the Mets edged out against Myers in extra’s on Aug. 19th. That game was 2-1 into the 9th as well.
I also think Myers has value straight up, but I’ll stick with under.
20 Dimes – Rangers – (-147 ML)
Athletics @ Rangers, 8:05 EST
Braden v. Harden
Braden is one solid pitcher, but everyone knows he has not been as solid since his No Hitter or consistency; until lately. Braden is 3.81 on the road and has found success in the last 6 games losing only 2, one being Texas. In fact he’s lost both opportunities to Texas allowing 7 ER’s in 13 innings and they were both in California.
Harden has been erratic as well, especially on the road, but at home he’s 3.25 (2-1) and he donked one off in Oakland on Aug. 7 but came right back home and shut down the Twins; now the revenge game against Oakland.
Texas is comfortably in front but you never want to take your foot off the gas and Washington is vying for coach of the year, I think the players are playing for him, somewhat, as well as the championship, to keep the Mo-Jo going. Vladdy is starting to hit again as well.
Other Games I considered…
St. Lou Cardinals @ Nationals
Lohse v. Hernandez
Livan has had three outing that were forgettable and after each one he pitched an gem. STL has lost 6 of the last 10 and everyone is waiting for them to break out… other than Pujols who rarely gets pitched too any more, the team is stalling.
Lohse is 7.85 on the road and since his long absence; his first two starts back sucks.
Great Value for Washington here.
LA Dodgers @ Rockies, 8:10 - (-123)
Billingsley v. Chacin
Chacin has been horrid, other than his lights out effort in his last one at Arizona he’s been bad and inconsistent.
Billingsley had been pushed back due to a calf injury and I can’t find any reason why he is not going to be his usual self.
NFL
Titans at Carolina -3
Titans are ready for solid dress rehearsal for the regular season and Carolina cannot and will not keep pace with this solid Defense including the back-ups. I am surprised that Tenn is a dog, maybe I am missing something.
Bengals @ Buffalo +3
Bengals are having fun and expect Palmer and crew to play deep and into the 3rd quarter here. Buffalo has had success but the Bengals Defense is not the Colts Def. and I believe we will see the Buffalo we saw against the Skins. Blow out by 10 or more.
NY Giants @ Ravens
Ravens showed signs of gelling offensively and the defense is still very good. Giants do have experience and power but they are going to be overwhelmed in Baltimore. Manning will have his moments but Baltimore is relentless to the gun and wins easy.
Cubs @ Reds, 7:10 EST
R. Wells v. Arroyo
Take Cincinnati tonight for a number of reasons the first of which is big mo, momentum. Following an OK road trip losing only a few at the tail end against other play-off hopefuls, the Reds get back home against a reeling Cubs team that is ready to settle down into the losing team they really are after beating up on the Nats. The Nats battled the Cubs but the Pinella thing had the eye on Chicago and the pitching match ups favored the Cubs there.
Now the Reds come in with Arroyo who is En Fuego. Only St Louie got to Arroyo lately and those darn Nats a month or so ago… otherwise his 2 or under ER’s per game and at least 6-7 innings is outstanding. He 2 hit the Cubs in July through 6 innings and 5 hit them in August with ZERO runs earned in either.
Randy Wells is not the worst pitcher you’ll bet against but 2-5 away with 5.12 era had faced the Reds Aug. 7th giving up 3 earned in a 4-3 loss. His July effort was much better in a 3-1 win but both games were in Chicago.
20 Dimes – UNDER @ Mets – (6.5 runs)
Astros @ Mets, 7:10 EST
Myers v. Jo. Santana
Everyone is on the Mets as a decent sized favorite, and you can argue they should be. They’re at home and Santana is the man in Queens, but Myers is no slouch. Myers is 3.86 on the road and the Stros are 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Being the hard luck man shipped from Philly, he’s been the rock at Houston and on any contending team, he would likely be a #2 or #3 in the rotation.
The total is low and the Vegas is begging for an over bet, but every game this year has been under the total, the highest being 7 runs Aug. 17 and the total was 7.5 with Figueroa; put in Myers and you get the 3-2 game the Mets edged out against Myers in extra’s on Aug. 19th. That game was 2-1 into the 9th as well.
I also think Myers has value straight up, but I’ll stick with under.
20 Dimes – Rangers – (-147 ML)
Athletics @ Rangers, 8:05 EST
Braden v. Harden
Braden is one solid pitcher, but everyone knows he has not been as solid since his No Hitter or consistency; until lately. Braden is 3.81 on the road and has found success in the last 6 games losing only 2, one being Texas. In fact he’s lost both opportunities to Texas allowing 7 ER’s in 13 innings and they were both in California.
Harden has been erratic as well, especially on the road, but at home he’s 3.25 (2-1) and he donked one off in Oakland on Aug. 7 but came right back home and shut down the Twins; now the revenge game against Oakland.
Texas is comfortably in front but you never want to take your foot off the gas and Washington is vying for coach of the year, I think the players are playing for him, somewhat, as well as the championship, to keep the Mo-Jo going. Vladdy is starting to hit again as well.
Other Games I considered…
St. Lou Cardinals @ Nationals
Lohse v. Hernandez
Livan has had three outing that were forgettable and after each one he pitched an gem. STL has lost 6 of the last 10 and everyone is waiting for them to break out… other than Pujols who rarely gets pitched too any more, the team is stalling.
Lohse is 7.85 on the road and since his long absence; his first two starts back sucks.
Great Value for Washington here.
LA Dodgers @ Rockies, 8:10 - (-123)
Billingsley v. Chacin
Chacin has been horrid, other than his lights out effort in his last one at Arizona he’s been bad and inconsistent.
Billingsley had been pushed back due to a calf injury and I can’t find any reason why he is not going to be his usual self.
NFL
Titans at Carolina -3
Titans are ready for solid dress rehearsal for the regular season and Carolina cannot and will not keep pace with this solid Defense including the back-ups. I am surprised that Tenn is a dog, maybe I am missing something.
Bengals @ Buffalo +3
Bengals are having fun and expect Palmer and crew to play deep and into the 3rd quarter here. Buffalo has had success but the Bengals Defense is not the Colts Def. and I believe we will see the Buffalo we saw against the Skins. Blow out by 10 or more.
NY Giants @ Ravens
Ravens showed signs of gelling offensively and the defense is still very good. Giants do have experience and power but they are going to be overwhelmed in Baltimore. Manning will have his moments but Baltimore is relentless to the gun and wins easy.