#1 Documented Capper - 4 Top Plays For Friday

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Insider Edge Sports - Friday November 28, 2003 Report

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Free Service Play For Friday November 28, 2003

Arizona Wildcats at Arizona St. Sun Devils 3:00 pm EST

Over 54.5 Arizona/Arizona St. (2 Units)

The battle for the Territorial Cup is typically a shootout and this year shouldn’t be any different. Neither team can stop anyone and while the offenses have not been outscoring many teams, they should be able to take advantage of the others weak defense. The average total score in this series has been 60.6 over the last 9 meetings.

Combined, the defenses are allowing 65.7 ppg on the season. Arizona St. has totaled 59.9 ppg over their last 8 games and 64 ppg over their last 3. While the Arizona offense has been awful most of the season, ever since Mike Hankwitz took over the coaching duties on an interim basis, the offense has shown signs of life. They have put up 20 or more points in 3 of 4 games before hitting a wall against USC two weeks ago. Prior to those 4 games, the offense averaged 9.4 ppg their previous 5 games. Hankwitz has opened up the offense more and with Friday most certainly being his last game, he will open up the playbook to audition for another job. The Sun Devils offense has been nothing of what was projected early in the season. While the offense is averaging only 23.6 ppg on the season, they are producing more at home, putting up 31.3 ppg at Sun Devils Stadium. The Wildcats are allowing an atrocious 45.8 ppg on the road in 2003. If we look just at site-specific stats, we see an average of 59.6 ppg scored between the two teams. As expected in the desert, weather will not be a factor.

Arizona is ranked ninth nationally with 16 fumble recoveries, but is 93rd in turnover margin per game (–0.45). Opponents hold a 120-61 edge in points off turnovers. The teams are 9-4 over combined this season and 6-2 over against their common opponents. The public loves overs in these types of games, which scares us some, but we think the defenses don’t show up once again and this game goes over rather easily.

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Nebraska Cornhuskers at Colorado Buffaloes 12:00 pm EST

Nebraska –2.5 (3 Units)

Never before has Nebraska football needed a game more than it does right now. It's also been a while since a Nebraska coach has needed a win more than right now. The Huskers have been loose this week and head coach Frank Solich, especially, has been smiling, joking and seemingly more at ease than any time in recent memory. Nebraska is looking for revenge from the last 2 seasons while trying to get 9 wins for the 34th time in 35 years.

Jammal Lord is the leading rusher on a Nebraska offense that averages 237.4 yards per game on the ground. He has 801 yards, nine touchdowns and averages 4.4 yards per carry, which is second only to I-back Cory Ross' 4.7 yards per attempt of those players who have 25 carries or more. The Colorado defense is nothing special, ranked 99th in the country in both total and scoring defense. They have allowed only 26 points total their last 2 games but their last game came against the Cyclones, who are ranked 114th in scoring offense. The game before that against Missouri, they were outgained by 171 yards but were fortunate to win the turnover battle 4-0. They might not be so lucky against the Huskers who are ranked 1st in the country in turnover margin at +1.6 while the Buffaloes are ranked 83rd at –0.4.

In beating Nebraska the past two years, Colorado rolled up 633 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. Few are expecting that sort of game Friday. Colorado has just 1,058 yards and 16 TDs rushing this season - last in the Big 12 Conference and 112th nationally. With the Husker defense looking much stronger than it did in 2001 and 2002, Colorado figures to do a lot of passing. To do it, Colorado will have to solve a Nebraska defense that ranks 10th against the pass and 14th overall. The Huskers also lead the NCAA with 27 interceptions, including 10 by safety Josh Bullocks.

Husker defensive coordinator Bo Pelini said it’s important that players don’t get overly revved up for the game. “I’m going to try to get them to be guarded about being too emotional,” Pelini said Tuesday. “There are distractions out there. Our job as coaches, and the job of the players, is to stay focused on what we have to get done. To get focused on the job. If you do that, good things will happen.” Solich said the extra time to prepare for Colorado has been beneficial as it gave the Huskers some time to heal. Solich said most everyone should be ready to go by Friday. “I think we’re all ready to go,” Ross said Tuesday. “We had probably one of the best practices we’ve had all year on Monday. You can tell everybody’s excited and focused. We’ve had a long time off, and some people with injuries are starting to get better.”

Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers 2:30 pm EST

LSU –9.5 (3 Units)

Oh sweet revenge. Not only can LSU clinch a spot in the SEC Championship game but also they can avenge last season’s last second loss to the Razorbacks that cost them a trip to the title game. Arkansas ended up making the trip to Atlanta when Matt Jones tossed a 31-yard touchdown pass with 9 seconds remaining, lifting the Razorbacks to a stunning 21-20 victory.

The Tigers rank first in the nation in rushing defense, third in the nation in total defense and first in scoring defense. Only in pass defense, do the Tigers rank outside of the top 10 nationally in a defensive statistical category. The Tigers' front four and linebackers Cameron Vaughn, Eric Alexander and Lionel Turner have given LSU a solid front seven against the run. "Their front seven,” Alabama running back Shaud Williams told reporters after the LSU game, "is probably the most athletic bunch we've faced all year.” The LSU front four has 40 tackles for losses this season. LSU is tops in the Southeastern Conference in sacks (33), opponent third-down conversions (24.1 percent), opponent first downs (151) and in pass defense efficiency (94.2). Opponents have reached the red zone against the Tigers 21 times this season, but LSU has surrendered points on just 10 occasions (47.6 percent). They will be going again the best offense in the SEC. Arkansas leads the SEC with 31 rushing touchdowns and 240 yards rushing per game. LSU has allowed only two scores on the ground this year with neither against its first-team defense. LSU hasn't allowed 20 or more points all year, while Arkansas leads the SEC with 35 points per game behind dual-threat quarterback Matt Jones. The QB situation for Arkansas is very strange however. While Ryan Sorahan has made the last four starts at quarterback for the Hogs, Jones' improved passing and mobility give Arkansas an additional threat against LSU but Nutt hasn't decided on a starter.

Offensively, LSU is third in the SEC in scoring (33.2 points) and Arkansas coach Houston Nutt said quarterback Matt Mauck has been the difference from last season. The junior, who sat out most of 2002 with a foot injury, has turned in near-flawless performances to lead an offense averaging 424.1 yards a game. He's second in the SEC in passing efficiency (150 rating) and became LSU's single-season leader with 23 touchdown passes. He throws to 2 of the top 4 receivers in the conference in Michael Clayton and Devery Henderson, who have combined for 1,686 yards and 18 touchdowns. The return game is also huge for the tigers as punt returner/receiver Skyler Green leads the nation in punt returns with a 22.2-yard average and has scored 2 touchdowns.

There will be no letdown for the Tigers after their win at Mississippi last week since there is just too much at stake. Revenge, SEC Championship, BCS implications and The Boot. The home team has won six straight games in the battle for The Boot. LSU is 4-1 ATS at home when giving more than 9 points the last 2 years. After an amazing 6-26 ATS mark as home favorites in the SEC between 1987 and 2001, the Tigers seemed to have turned the corner, cashing 4 of their last 5.

St. Francis (NY) Terriers vs. William & Mary Tribe 6:00 pm EST

William & Mary –4.5 (3 units)

The Tribe have the best player on the court in this matchup with senior forward Adam Hess. Hess is the preseason CAA Player of the Year and is already leading the team in scoring, averaging 26 ppg. The question entering the season was who would be able to take some of the scoring pressure off Hess. Starters Zeb Cope and Nick D’Antoni have started the season solid averaging 16 and 12 ppg respectively while Taylor Mokris is averaging 14 ppg coming off the bench. William & Mary have split their first two games but their new up tempo offense with new coach Tony Shaver seems to be working as they are averaging 88.5 ppg. They should easily outscore a St. Francis team who has one game under their belt – a 80-58 loss to Umass, who has since lost to Texas Tech and Hartford at home. This year, the Terriers return just two starters and must replace their top three scorers from last year. Their scoring will be coming from a pair of sophomores in Christian Brown and John Quintana. Both players scored in double figures against the Minutemen and will be the go to guys for most of the season. This is an extremely small team as only 2 players stand 6’8”, which will cause problems in trying to guard Hess. This game is at a neutral site so we have some value in this line. If the Tribe put up their average, or even close to it, it’s lights out for the Terriers.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics 7:35 pm EST

Boston –5.5 (3 Units)

A couple key injury updates as Tim Thomas will sit this one out with a sprained ankle for Milwaukee while Raef LaFrentz likely will return from his sore knee for the Celtics. Thomas is second on the Bucks with 17 ppg and second on the team in FG%. That leaves Michael Redd as the main scoring option. LaFrentz has missed the last 6 games ad his return should help the interior out. Boston has been outrebounded in 5 of those 6 games. He is a big player off the bench with 8.8 ppg and 5.6 rpg. The Celtics hope the win at Orlando on Wednesday, snapping a 4 game skid, represents a reversal of fortunes. In addition to the mental toughness Boston demonstrated down the stretch and the way they hustled after loose balls, there were other positive signs. Boston shot 48 percent, posted 16 points on the break, recorded 21 assists, and committed just 13 turnovers. Most importantly, the Celtics did not experience a precipitous drop in performance from quarter to quarter or half to half, something that has plagued them all season.