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  • *thanksgiving Special Offer*

    THANKSGIVING DAY FOOTBALL FEAST!

    It's a FOOTBALL TRIFECTA on Thanksgiving with an NFL double-header and a single NCAA Football contest. As always, the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys play holiday hosts on Turkey Day. This year, the Lions will take on the Green Bay Packers, while the Cowboys meet the Miami Dolphins, and then it's the annual college football clash between Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

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    Our clients are already off to a perfect and profitable start to the week with 2 WINNERS. Highlights of our analysis from Monday's NFL game and Tuesday's NCAA Football contest follow.


    7 STAR SELECTION (5% of Bankroll)

    TAMPA BAY -5.5 over New York Giants

    ...While some Buc fans fear that the decision to part ways with Keyshawn Johnson at this stage in the season will really hurt the offense, Tampa has other receivers they can depend on, and the removing of the cancer from the locker room should be a very positive thing for team morale. Johnson had made it clear that he longer wanted to play in Tampa and was becoming a negative drag on the team. He was only the 3rd leading receiver on the team as it was. The Bucs' offense has struggled even with Keyshawn Johnson in the lineup. The lone bright spot last week was Thomas Jones' 134 rushing yards on nine carries. Brad Johnson had an uncharacteristically bad game and we look for him to bounce back here. Despite Tampa Bay's offensive limitations, the Giants are in no position to take advantage of a reeling opponent. New York's defense has given up too many big plays once again this season. The unit has become even more porous in recent weeks, allowing a touchdown on each of opponents' last nine red-zone trips. The Giants were already without cornerbacks Will Peterson and Ralph Brown before they were forced to place strong safety Shaun Williams and defensive end Kenny Holmes on season-ending injured reserve this week.

    Expect the Bucs to be very serious and focused this week. Being the defending Super Bowl champions, they obviously know how to come through in the clutch, and they should bring playoff-type intensity to this game. They have done well on Monday Nights, while Giants have been terrible under HC Jim Fassel, going 1-8 ATS in their last 9 appearances on ABC. November has also been unkind to this club as they are 0-6-1 ATS as underdogs off a SU loss of 10+ points, and just 2-12 ATS off a road game in November. Meanwhile, Tampa is 12-2 ATS in November after scoring 10 or fewer points, and 9-2 ATS at home off back-to-back previous home SU losses, including 1-0 already this season. The Bucs are also 9-0 ATS after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time, 8-0-1 ATS when their rushing yards increased over each of the past 3 games, and 7-0 ATS off a game in which they allowed at 75+ yards rushing above their season average...

    ...Only twice in the past 14 years of NFL play has a MNF home favorite come into the game off 3+ SU/ATS losses as the Bucs do here. In 1991, New Orleans was a FG fave and smoked the Raiders 27-0. Then in 2000, the Colts were favored by 6 over Buffalo and pounded the Bills 44-40, making the 2 previous MNF home faves off 3+ SU/ATS losses, 2-0 SU/ATS, winning SU by an average of 25.5 points and beating the spread by a 21-point average. While we aren't looking for a blowout of those proportions by the Buccaneers here, we do expect them to be in control here and win handily.

    PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TAMPA BAY 24 NY GIANTS 13

    ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TAMPA BAY 19 NY GIANTS 13!



    7 STAR SELECTION (5% of Bankroll)

    NEW MEXICO STATE +9 over North Texas

    ...The Aggies will be absolutely pumped for this contest and should be competitive for several reasons. This will be their first nationally televised game at home in school history. Being the final home game, it's "Senior Night" and the team will want to send their graduating players out on winning note. In addition to Tony Joseph, senior running back Eric Higgins, who ran for 218 yards against Louisiana-Monroe a month ago before being sidelined by a chronic groin injury, is ready to go here for an added punch to the Aggies' run game. While North Texas gets the recognition as a great running team due to Cobbs, the Aggies are actually the top rushing team in the Sun Belt, averaging 216 yards a game. What has made them especially difficult to defend as of late has been an improved passing game. Turnovers early in the season led to their poor record, but that doesn't change the fact that the Aggies, when hitting on all cylinders, have the most difficult offense to defend in the Sun Belt. The Aggie running game is good enough to give North Texas problems, while the defense is the best UNT has faced since September. North Texas needs to run the ball to win, and NMSU's front seven should keep Patrick Cobbs from running wild.

    These two teams met last season in a battle for the SBC championship and a New Orleans Bowl berth, with North Texas scoring 17 fourth-quarter points for a come-from-behind 38-27 victory in Denton. Had NMSU not turned the ball over 4 times in the final 15 minutes, they would have been on their way to New Orleans for a bowl game. They now have a huge revenge motive to add to the mix here. Meanwhile, North Texas has everything wrapped up with the league title and bowl bid already in hand, and simply will have a hard time matching the Aggies intensity tonight. North Texas has taken 3 straight from NMSU, but find themselves in a position here they haven't been placed in before - a road favorite in Las Cruces. The Aggies defend their home turf well, as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog under HC Tony Samuel. They are also 4-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss, giving us an additional reason to believe they will put the Arkansas loss behind them and be ready for the Mean Green to take this one down to the wire.

    PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH TEXAS 24 NEW MEXICO STATE 23

    ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: NORTH TEXAS 13 NEW MEXICO STATE 10!

    GAME NOTE: "down to the wire" indeed, as North Texas kicked a FG on the final play of the game for the win.


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