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**InsiderEdge** · 11-15-2003, 11:06 AM

Our first game kicks off at 12:30 pm EST and our last goes at 3:30 pm EST. 19 units for the grabbing this afternoon.

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**InsiderEdge** · 11-15-2003, 09:19 PM

Thanks to all of the new members who went along for the ride today and made a mint. Our second consecutive 5-2 Saturday puts our 2 week total at 31-17 +35.9 units. Join us again tomorrow as we will continue making you money.

(321) Duke Blue Devils at (322) Clemson Tigers 1:00 pm EST

Duke +14 (2 Units)

Clemson has been an up-and-down team following up its last three wins with a loss. If everything holds to form, the Tigers will lose. After all of the emotion and all the hype over the Florida State game, Clemson should be due for a major letdown with the rivalry game against South Carolina coming up next week.

Duke is 1-2 under interim head coach Ted Roof. The team is playing with more spirit and energy and looked sharp against Georgia Tech. Roof began reshaping the season by making a simple decision - let Chris Douglas run. Douglas rumbled for a career-high 218 yards against Georgia Tech. He has carried 84 times and rushed for 471 yards in the three games since Roof took control. In the previous seven games he rushed 109 times for 522 yards. Several Duke players have said that they believe Roof should be named the coach. Rusty Wilson, a senior offensive guard, said: "The biggest thing he's done is he's made us come together as a team more. Like he says, it's one heartbeat. It's one team." The Blue Devils held a players-only meeting on October 29th. Junior cornerback Kenny Stanford led the meeting and asked the players to vote on who they wanted to be the coach next season. "Everybody raised their hand. It was unanimous."

Two weeks ago, Wake Forest weaved its way through Clemson’s defense to the tune of 321 yards rushing and 45 points through 3 quarters. “It didn’t surprise me that Wake Forest had success,” head coach Tommy Bowden said. “It surprised me the amount of success they had.” Against Duke, Clemson can expect to see a lot of the same misdirection plays that Wake Forest used. Although it ranks eighth in the conference in total offense, Duke has shown good balance by averaging 170 yards rushing and 182 passing. Clemson comes in with the 85th ranked rushing offense in the country and while Duke is ranked 76th, allowing 166.8 ypg, they have allowed just 115.7 ypg over their last 3 games. The Tigers won’t find much success there. Duke is allowing 205.6 ypg through the air, which is 40th in the country right behind Clemson. Whitehurst has the tools and ability to make plays, but they come easy on Saturday.

Both of these teams can be considered still left with a hangover but we think it’s more so for Clemson. Duke has shown since Roof has taken over that they are a new team and still hungry for more. They want this man to get the permanent job so they will be going all out to try and win their last 2 games and give him a chance.

(327) Houston Cougars at (328) Army Black Knights 1:00 pm EST

Houston –11 (3 Units)

Houston can make itself bowl eligible with a win over lowly Army. The Black Knights haven't been close over the last two games losing to UAB and Air Force by a combined score of 55-12. Houston should be ready to explode coming off a three-game losing streak to top Conference USA teams Memphis, TCU and Southern Miss.

This is the Black Knights' last season in Conference USA and this is their final conference game. With the lack of success they have had in the conference they just want out. The biggest part of their season is the next 3 weeks anyway. They get to travel to Hawaii next week and then will battle rival Navy two weeks later. Nothing is working for Army. If the offense works at all, it turns the ball over to screw things up. The defense is equally bad against the run and the pass, ranked 86th against the pass and 93rd against the run. It just so happens that the Cougar offense can move the ball on the ground or the air, so it should be able to do whatever it wants. Houston has excellent balance, passing for 233.7 yards and rushing for 194.8 per game. The Cougars are 25th in total offense while Army is 97th in total defense.

This game will be won in the trenches. The Houston starting offensive line outweighs the Army starting defensive line by an average of 72.4 pounds. That is a huge disparity and the Cougars will take full advantage. Army's leading tackler, outside linebacker Ryan Kent, weighs 215 pounds, or 35 pounds less than freshman Houston fullback Jackie Battle, who will try to pound Kent and his teammates as he runs behind a huge Cougars offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the Cougar defensive line is only 20.2 pounds per man lighter than the Army offensive line. That fact might give the Houston defensive line an edge because the size isn’t much but the quickness is.

In addition to a 12-game overall losing streak, Army has lost 12 straight at home. Both are the longest streaks in school history. The Cadets have turned the ball over 38 times and rank 116th in turnover margin at minus-21. Houston has played four teams - Rice, Louisiana-Lafayette, Mississippi State and East Carolina - this season that were winless going into their games against the Cougars, and beat all four teams by an average of 16 ppg. The Cougars should have all of the focus here while Army awaits the warm weather on the islands that await them next week. Houston finishes at Louisville and at home against UAB so this is a must win situation.

(343) Texas A&M Aggies at (344) Missouri Tigers 12:30 pm EST

Missouri –13 (2 Units)

The Tiger Big XII North hopes might be in serious trouble, but there's still a chance to get to the title game if they win out and get a little help with one Nebraska loss in their final two games. Missouri is coming off a loss at Colorado where they outgained the Buffaloes by a huge margin but they committed 4 turnovers, 1 less than they committed all season long coming into that game.

Brad Smith took the blame for the loss as it was he one was responsible for all of the turnovers but knowing the competitor in Smith, he will bounce back in a big way this week. In the last four games, Smith has surged. During that span, he's averaged 333 yards (191.5 passing and 141.5 rushing) and has had a hand in 12 touchdowns (nine rushing, two passing, one receiving). Overall, Missouri is averaging 404.3 ypg, which is 37th in the country. Texas A&M is ranked 94th in total defense (423.7 yards per game), including 95th against the run (194.6). The Aggies are yielding 37.4 points per outing, a total exceeded by only five teams. Sure the 77 points they allowed last week to Oklahoma skews their average somewhat but they had allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 7 previous games before last week. The Aggies strength on offense is their rushing attack that averages 189 ypg and 4.8 ypc but the Tigers stop the run well, allowing 135.7 ypg and 3.6 ypc. They have allowed only 109.6 ypg on the ground over their last 3 games.

Missouri's problems have come on the road going 1-3, but they are a perfect 5-0 at home. Big 12 squads are 9-25 on the road in conference games (remove 3-0 Texas and 2-0 Oklahoma, and that record drops to 4-25). Since Kansas blitzed Missouri 22-0 in the fourth quarter back on September 27th, the Tigers have outscored their last four opponents 65-7 in the final period so a backdoor cover by the Aggies isn’t likely.

(369) North Carolina St. at (370) Florida St. 3:30 pm EST

North Carolina St. +13.5 (3 Units)

The Wolfpack has beaten the Seminoles the last two years with a 17-7 victory last season and a 34-28 upset in Tallahassee in 2001. NC State can win a share of the ACC title by beating the Seminoles, followed by a home win over Maryland next week. The Wolfpack have won 4 straight games after starting the season 3-3 and they have their confidence back.

The FSU defense is ranked well, but that's a bit misleading considering that Clemson was the first decent team the Seminoles have faced with all its offensive parts intact. Matt Schaub torched the Seminoles for 326 yards and two touchdowns while Charlie Whitehurst was deadly completing 17 of 27 passes for 277 yards and a score. Part of the reason NC State has won the last two meetings is because they had success running the ball. They rushed for 187 yards in 2001 then for 226 a year ago. The Wolfpack has averaged 435 yards in total offense but just 94.9 rushing the season while various leg injuries have hampered T.A. McLendon at times this season. NC State is 5-1 when McLendon plays, with the one loss being when he was limited in the overtime loss to Ohio State, and 2-2 when he doesn't play. He’s healthy and ready to go this weekend.

The defense of NC State has been inconsistent at times but the Florida St. offense isn’t making anyone nervous either. They scored only one touchdown last week against Clemson and that came when the game was well decided. Starting QB Chris Rix wasn’t even part of it as he was benched. Rix will start this week but his confidence is at the lowest point of the season. "I'm not confident in anybody right now," said head coach Bobby Bowden, who said that backup Fabian Walker could play Saturday and acknowledged that redshirt freshman Wyatt Sexton could take extra reps in practice.

Chuck Amato knows Jeff Bowden and OL coach Jimmy Heggins, and he knows how Georgia Tech, Miami, and Clemson were successful in stifling the Florida St. offense and that was to blitz like crazy. With T.A. McClendon back in the lineup and back in the groove, this is a bad matchup for the Seminoles. The Wolfpack seem to have the Seminoles number and now that they are playing their best football of the season, we will happily grab the two touchdowns.

(377) Washington Huskies at (378) California Golden Bears 3:30 pm EST

Washington +5.5 (3 Units)

We won’t go into great detail here with this play. Both teams match up very well with the Huskies holding the edge in total offense (412-388) and total defense (359-387). What makes this a play for us is that Washington fits into 3 very favorable situations. 2 of the situations are a play on Washington while the other is a play against California. Since 1989, these 3 situations are a combined 225-124 (64.5%). That is a very strong percentage going back so far with so many games involved. The Bears running game also took a hit as starting TB Adimchinobe Echemandu is not expected to start. Head coach Jeff Tedford will start junior tailback J.J. Arrington on Saturday in place of senior Echemandu, who sprained his ankle against Oregon. Echemandu was moving well in practice on Thursday and Tedford said he will be available to play, but Arrington has taken most of the first-team snaps in practice. He leads the team with 1,074 yards, 5.2 ypc and 11 touchdowns this season.

(387) Northern Illinois Huskies at (388) Toledo Rockets 3:00 pm EST

Toledo +2.5 (3 Units)

Toledo controls its own destiny needing to beat Northern Illinois and then beat Western Michigan and Bowling Green. The Huskies need a win and for Bowling Green to lose to play Miami in the MAC title game.

The Rockets enter rested following a bye week and injury-free compared to the tired and depleted Huskies. Northern Illinois' defense will play without three All-MAC players in senior captains Akil Grant and Nick Duffy, plus junior end Travis Moore while Leonard Cooksey, Jason Frank and Javan Lee all are banged up. Strong safety Ray Smith and middle linebacker Jason Hawkins lack the big-game experience of Grant and Duffy, which the Rockets most likely will target. "It’s a long season, but we’re in a good position for this final stretch," Toledo senior defensive end Frank Ofili said. "After that idle Saturday, everybody is ready to get back out there and get going again." Toledo coach Tom Amstutz said the Rockets engaged in a robust practice session on Sunday and have been building the emotion each day in hopes of hitting their peak at kickoff time against the Huskies. Toledo's offense revolves around the steady play of quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. The sophomore has been nothing short of spectacular, completing 71.2 percent of his passes in Toledo's spread offense. The Rockets offensive line protects their quarterback well, yielding a conference-low seven sacks as tackles Nick Kaczur (6-5, 305) and Erik Faasen (6-8, 352) help form the sixth-largest line in the country.

The Rockets might be able to match the stellar play of the Huskies special teams. Lance Moore and Steve Odom form a deadly combination, leading the nation in punt returns. Punter Brandon Hannum has proven to be a weapon earning one MAC West Player of the Week honor and two other nominations. Amstutz said there has been a renewed emphasis this week on fundamental tackling, since the powerful Northern Illinois TB Michael Turner makes the bulk of his yardage after his first contact with defenders.

Amstutz has done a great job of getting his team to come through in the clutch over the past few years. The overall offense is humming better than Northern Illinois' with a stronger passing attack and more production on the ground from its group of backs. Toledo has posted nine straight wins in the series, and the Huskies haven't won in the Glass Bowl since 1972 and stand 1-15 for all-time visits there. Toledo owns a 23-1 mark at the Glass Bowl dating back to the middle of the 1999 season.

(397) Connecticut Huskies at (398) Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3:30 pm EST

Connecticut +9.5 (3 Units)

This is UConn's last chance to make an impression for the bowl types in its final regular season game. Wake Forest has had an up-and-down season coming off a 42-34 loss to North Carolina, and now the hopes for a bowl game are hanging by a thread with Maryland coming up in two weeks.

Wake Forest's defense is one of the worst in the ACC and couldn't handle Ronnie McGill and the North Carolina rushing attack last week. Week after week UConn gets a great performance out of its running backs and shouldn't have a problem getting production out of Cornell Brockington and Chris Bellamy. If the Huskies are running the ball, then quarterback Dan Orlovsky tends to be even more efficient. The Huskies come in with the 12th ranked offense in the country, averaging over 472 ypg. Sure their competition hasn’t been top notch but to be able to move the ball consistently week after week shows something. Wake Forest's pass defense is lousy allowing 285 yards per game, which is 111th in the country. They allow 153 ypg on the ground and over 4 ypc. We should note that in their 3 losses this season to Boston College, Virginia Tech and NC State, Connecticut outyarded their foes in each game and the combined yardage was 1254-970. Very impressive to say the least.

Wake Forest Head coach Jim Grobe said that inexperience has been the Deacons' Achilles' heel all season. The Deacons have 11 sophomores and 13 freshmen listed as either first or second team. "You get to this point in the season and it's been a long year, kids are tired of practices, they tend to respect certain opponents more than others and no matter what you tell them sometimes, they have to learn by experience." With that said, how is this team expected to get up for the Huskies? They come in ranked 21st in rushing offense but that’s all they have. They are 106th in passing offense putting up only 156 ypg through the air. While their ground game is averaging 198.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc, the Huskies are holding their own in stopping the run. They are ranked 48th in rushing defense, yielding only 139.2 ypg and 3.7 ypc.

"The one thing is, we're a team that is going to play hard, and we're going to play until the final whistle blows," Huskies head coach Randy Edsall said. "It's a group that believes in each other and believes in what we're doing, and they just have a tremendous amount of confidence and a belief that they can go out and win." This is their final game to sway any bowl officials that they belong in the postseason. Quite honestly, even if they lose, they should still be bowling. Not being linked to a conference shouldn’t be held against them, it should be what they have accomplished on the field in their very short stint at the D-1 level. Hopefully though, we won’t even need the points on Saturday.

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