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As I have recently posted at another thread, it was a difficult and personal decision for me to revive my tipsheet. That said, it's gonna be an awesome year and better season.
http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=151261
The raw results for my XL-PIX program are statistically sound with a solid 61.5% winning percentage on over 200 picks (131-82 ATS) during the 4 year span of the 2004-2007 seasons.
If you like a lot of plays, that's good. But with a little creative thinking, you can eliminate 33 wins and 39 losses by simply staying away from double digit games and road favorites of a touchdown or more. At that, the record soars to 98-43 ATS for an amazing 69.5% winning percentage against the spread.
What's the downside? Well, relatively speaking, there is none. But I suppose it would be nice to have plays from Week one through the Superbowl. But the very nature of statistical capping insist on numbers to input. For that reason, the plays do not begin until week five.
And for that same reason (plays are based on numbers and value), it is equally wise to lay off the last two weeks of the season. Teams give up, some rest players, and the playoff picture comes into consideration. Therefore, a more objective style of capping is the preference.
That said, here are the week-to-week results of my current Excel Program. All lines are as per The Goldsheet archives.
2007
Week 5
IND -9' over Tam...Win 33-14
PIT -5' over Sea...Win 21-0
GRB -3 over Chi...Lose 20-27
Week 6
Nyg -4 over ATL...Win 31-10
Week 7
DAL -9' over Min...Win 24-14
Ind -3 over JAX...Win 29-7
Pit -3' over DEN...Lose 28-31
NYG -9' over Sfo...Win 33-15
Week 8
Ind -6' over CAR...Win 31-7
Cle -3 over STL...Win 27-20
Pit -3' over CIN...Win 24-13
Week 9
Dal -3 over PHI...Win 38-17
CLE -1' over Sea...Win 33-30
Week 10
Dal -2 over NYG...Win 31-20
Week 11
Cle -2' over BAL...Win 33-30
Sdg +3 over JAX...Lose 17-24
Week 12
CLE -3' over Hou...Win 27-17
SDG -9 over Bal...Win 32-14
Week 13
DAL -7 over Grb...Win 37-27
Cle +1 over ARI...Lose 21-27
SDG -6 over Kc...Win 24-10
IND -6 over Jax...Lose 28-25
PIT -7 over Cin...Win 24-10
Week 14
Cle -3' over NYJ...Win 24-18
Sdg -1 over TEN...Win 23-17
Week 15
CLE -5' over Buf 8-0 Win
TOTAL: 21-5-0 ATS
http://www.goldsheet.com/07nflog.php
You'll notice that some of the same teams show up from week to week. That's okay. That's the point. The program picks the teams with the solid numbers AND value. With a winning percentage of nearly 70%, I don't suppose it matters. You'll see more of the same in the other seasons as well. I will be posting the week-to-week results for the 2004-2006 seasons shortly.
2006: 27-13 ATS
2005: 25-13 ATS
2004: 25-12 ATS
More info: http://xl-pix.tripod.com
Thanx,
dave
http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=151261
The raw results for my XL-PIX program are statistically sound with a solid 61.5% winning percentage on over 200 picks (131-82 ATS) during the 4 year span of the 2004-2007 seasons.
If you like a lot of plays, that's good. But with a little creative thinking, you can eliminate 33 wins and 39 losses by simply staying away from double digit games and road favorites of a touchdown or more. At that, the record soars to 98-43 ATS for an amazing 69.5% winning percentage against the spread.
What's the downside? Well, relatively speaking, there is none. But I suppose it would be nice to have plays from Week one through the Superbowl. But the very nature of statistical capping insist on numbers to input. For that reason, the plays do not begin until week five.
And for that same reason (plays are based on numbers and value), it is equally wise to lay off the last two weeks of the season. Teams give up, some rest players, and the playoff picture comes into consideration. Therefore, a more objective style of capping is the preference.
That said, here are the week-to-week results of my current Excel Program. All lines are as per The Goldsheet archives.
2007
Week 5
IND -9' over Tam...Win 33-14
PIT -5' over Sea...Win 21-0
GRB -3 over Chi...Lose 20-27
Week 6
Nyg -4 over ATL...Win 31-10
Week 7
DAL -9' over Min...Win 24-14
Ind -3 over JAX...Win 29-7
Pit -3' over DEN...Lose 28-31
NYG -9' over Sfo...Win 33-15
Week 8
Ind -6' over CAR...Win 31-7
Cle -3 over STL...Win 27-20
Pit -3' over CIN...Win 24-13
Week 9
Dal -3 over PHI...Win 38-17
CLE -1' over Sea...Win 33-30
Week 10
Dal -2 over NYG...Win 31-20
Week 11
Cle -2' over BAL...Win 33-30
Sdg +3 over JAX...Lose 17-24
Week 12
CLE -3' over Hou...Win 27-17
SDG -9 over Bal...Win 32-14
Week 13
DAL -7 over Grb...Win 37-27
Cle +1 over ARI...Lose 21-27
SDG -6 over Kc...Win 24-10
IND -6 over Jax...Lose 28-25
PIT -7 over Cin...Win 24-10
Week 14
Cle -3' over NYJ...Win 24-18
Sdg -1 over TEN...Win 23-17
Week 15
CLE -5' over Buf 8-0 Win
TOTAL: 21-5-0 ATS
http://www.goldsheet.com/07nflog.php
You'll notice that some of the same teams show up from week to week. That's okay. That's the point. The program picks the teams with the solid numbers AND value. With a winning percentage of nearly 70%, I don't suppose it matters. You'll see more of the same in the other seasons as well. I will be posting the week-to-week results for the 2004-2006 seasons shortly.
2006: 27-13 ATS
2005: 25-13 ATS
2004: 25-12 ATS
More info: http://xl-pix.tripod.com
Thanx,
dave
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