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**InsiderEdge** · 09-28-2003, 11:51 AM

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**InsiderEdge** · 09-28-2003, 07:26 PM

If not for an offsides on the kickoff by the Ravens allowing the Chiefs another chance which they cash in on, we were on our way to a Sunday sweep. We finish up Sunday with the winner tonight between Indianapolis and New Orleans. If you had a losing day, let Insider Edge Sports get you back to winning and make up for the losses. Even if you did win, win some more. Grab this play for $14.95 and with the purchase, you also get our Monday night play between Green Bay and Chicago for free. Kickoff tonight is at 8:30 pm EST so don’t hesitate.

(195) New England Patriots at (196) Washington Redskins 1:00 pm EST

Washington -3 (3 Units)

The Redskins look to rebound from their overtime loss to the Giants last weekend. They were down big and came back to send the game into the extra period so even though they lost, they have a lot to build on. Patrick Ramsey is developing into a gutsy performer, and Steve Spurrier's passing game has loads of potential. The Redskins have plenty going for them in this game. They'll be facing the hobbled Patriots at home. Aside from linebacker Rosevelt Colvin (fractured hip) and guard Mike Compton (broken foot), both out for the season, there are 11 Patriots on the weekly injury report. Linebacker Ted Johnson (broken foot) and nose tackle Ted Washington (broken leg) are out. Linebacker Mike Vrabel (broken arm) is doubtful. Special teams performer Je'Rod Cherry (leg), tackle Adrian Klemm (ankle), cornerback Ty Law (ankle), fullback Fred McCrary (knee), wide receiver David Patten (knee), tight end Fred Baxter (leg) and center Damien Woody (knee) are questionable. Quarterback Tom Brady (elbow), who was injured two weeks ago against the Eagles but was not listed on last week's injury report, is probable. The Pats didn’t practice in pads this week for fear of yet another injury. Regulars who double on special teams like Tedy Bruschi will see little if any service in the kicking game for the same reason. Above all, as many as 10 Pats will be required to step into unfamiliar roles. Reserves will start, starters will move to new positions, reserves will start at new positions. The potential for on-field chaos is limitless. While the loss of Washington will hurt the Patriots' run defense, their pass defense could cause them more problems against the Redskins this week. When Washington went down in last week's game with a broken leg, it was a devastating loss to an already beat up Patriots defense. His replacement, Jarvis Green, is quicker, but has nowhere near Washington's strength. The Patriots will get a quick realization of how bad a situation they are in when Redskins center Larry Moore handles Green single handedly. That allows both guards to move forward on running plays and reestablish a new line of scrimmage two yards further downfield. Expect the Redskins to have good success running the ball right up the gut this week. Tom Brady has looked brilliant at times this season, making great decisions, hitting tight spots in coverage and excelling with the play-action passing game. But at other times, more specifically in the opener vs. the Bills and for a good majority of the Jets' game, Brady has looked like he is in a fog. He has had the ball slip out of his hands on several occasions and is taking too long to get rid of the ball. The injuries might be too much for New England to overcome here. Even if some of the questionable players do play, they are not 100% and that will come back to bite them. The Redskins get it done before their big game at Philadelphia next week.

(197) Kansas City Chiefs at (198) Baltimore Ravens 4:05 pm EST

Baltimore +3 (3 Units)

The Chiefs take to the road for the second consecutive week and will be facing the best defense they’ve seen thus far. Baltimore meanwhile took care of the Chargers last week and return home where they are 9-1 ATS and 10-0 SU in their second home game of the season the last 10 years. It will be strength against strength as the high powered Chiefs offense will try and dent the tough Baltimore defense. Part of the success of the defense for the Ravens is that they have the league's top kickoff unit. Opposing teams' drives have started at an average of their own 21-yard line, with five of the 14 possessions starting inside the teams' 20. The longest return of the year against the Ravens was by Pittsburgh's Ike Taylor for 28 yards. The punt team has been equally solid. In Sunday's 24-10 win over the San Diego Chargers, Eric Parker, who was the leader in punt return average a week ago, averaged 6.2 yards against the Ravens, which was less than half his average. Field position could win this game and a short field is just what Ravens QB Kyle Boller could use. It could also hurt Kansas City QB Trent Green. The Chiefs average 8.25 yards per attempt as Green completes a high percentage of passes thanks to the extra attention defenses give Holmes. He does have a tendency to be too aggressive and has thrown five interceptions so far this year. He has gotten away with that so far because the team has gotten multiple scores out of their defense and special teams, but it could come back to bite him eventually. The return of Chris McAlister from his one-game benching will also help. With McAlister back, the secondary is much stronger as it moves Gary Baxter back to free safety. After a slow start, Ravens rookie pass rusher Terrell Suggs became just the first rookie to record sacks in his first three games since Tampa Bay's Santana Dotson in 1992. Offensively, Baltimore might have some more firepower this week. Receiver Frank Sanders was added to the injury report yesterday, but the Ravens veteran receiver is expected to play. The Ravens are also hoping that receiver Travis Taylor will rebound after being a relative no-show in Week 2. A 35-yard pass slipped through his hands, and he was held without a catch, ending his 28-game streak of at least one reception. Baltimore will obviously continue their run-first philosophy with hot back Jamal Lewis until the Chiefs make them do otherwise. The Ravens fit into a solid system of playing against any game 4 NFL road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first 3 games. This system is 15-2 ATS since 1986.

(211) Jacksonville Jaguars at (212) Houston Texans 1:00 pm EST

Houston +3 (3 Units)

We are going with another home underdog with the Texans as they burned us last Sunday against the Chiefs thanks to poor special team play. The Texans are approaching Sunday's game with a sense of urgency. "I can't even say how huge this would be for us to go 2-2," cornerback Aaron Glenn said. "Not just going into the bye week, but just at this point. We need a win real badly." Houston hopes that RB Tony Hollings will allow them to rely less on the passing game and preserve QB David Carr’s health. The reason Hollings has not played much is more mental than physical, according to insiders. His surgically reconstructed knee is sound, but he had trouble picking up some of the plays. In Week Three, Hollings flashed ability, rushing for 41 yards on seven carries. If they can get the running game going, the passing game might be just fine. The Jacksonville secondary is having problems defending the vertical passing game. Wide receivers Andre Johnson and Cory Bradford both have the combination of size and speed to provide the big play downfield. After a great performance against Miami in Week 1 followed by a subpar outing at New Orleans, it was fair to wonder which was the real Texans' offensive line. If last week's game against Kansas City was any indication, the group is vastly improved from a year ago. The offensive line allowed just one sack against the Chiefs and cleared the way for 107 rushing yards despite the fact the Texans were behind most of the game and forced to throw. The Jaguars failed to get a sack the last two games, a good sign for the often-sacked Carr. Mark Brunell missed practice all week and was listed as questionable on the injury report, furthering the chance that rookie Byron Leftwich will make his first career start this weekend for the Jaguars. The Jaguars don't have the speed at receiver to stretch defenses vertically, and they lack the ability to burn teams that blitz them as a result. Texans defensive coordinator Vic Fangio needs to take advantage by bringing additional pressure early and often. Going into a hostile environment will be a huge test for the rookie Leftwich, not a good place to start, especially with the lack of a real go to guy at the receiver position. Blitzing him forces him to throw on the run and in a hurry, greatly increasing the chances of generating a turnover. Just consider how teams attacked Texans quarterback David Carr during his rookie season. Carr was blitzed early, often and from all directions in 2002 when he was sacked 76 times, a record for a single quarterback. Although the Texans' defense has averaged just 2.1 sacks a game during the franchise's brief existence, Sunday would seem a good time to turn up the heat. The Texans have concentrated mostly on preparing for the Jags' offense as a whole rather than the quarterback, although adjustments are ready to counter the strengths and weakness of both Jacksonville QB’s. Free safety Marlon McCree started the past two seasons for the Jaguars and was second in the AFC with six interceptions last year. However, Jacksonville's new coach Jack Del Rio felt second-round draft pick Rashean Mathis would be a better fit in the Jaguars' new defensive system and released McCree. Not only does he take the field for the Texans for the first time, the Jaguars know that releasing McCree could work against them Sunday. Any information he can give his new team will be highly beneficial. The Jaguars are sitting at 0-3 and really have no business being favored, especially with a rookie starting his first game. The Texans should be at .500 after this contest.

(217) Detroit Lions at (218) Denver Broncos 4:15 pm EST

Detroit +11.5 (3 Units)

This has the makings of a huge letdown for the Broncos. The Lions might be catching the Broncos at a good time, six days after their emotional 31-10 win over arch-rival Oakland in the Monday night game and a week before their game against AFC West challenger Kansas City. The big factor in this game is the condition of RB Clinton Portis who re-aggravated a chest injury Monday night and his status remains unclear. Portis was in a lot of pain and played only sparingly in the second half against Oakland. The Broncos want to make sure the injury doesn't worsen and become a season-long problem. If Portis is out, and with backup Mike Anderson also hurting, the Broncos' high-flying offense will sputter. Portis not only gives Denver a dangerous running game, but he sets up the play-action passing attack. Head coach Mike Shanahan said after practice that his star back will be a game-time decision. How much importance do defenses put on Portis? Consider that seven of Denver's eight first-half touchdowns came one play after a Portis run as teams consistently are being sucked in by the possibility the running back will carry again.. The Lions will have to tighten up their defense to have any chance of winning this game. The Lions defense has been decent for the most part but their problem has been giving up the big play. To be exact, the Lions have given up seven runs of 10 yards or more in the last two games. Ahman Green had a 65-yard touchdown run and gains of 13, 25 and 11 yards in the Lions' loss at Green Bay. Daunte Culpepper had a 14-yard touchdown run, Moe Williams had a 61-yard run and wide receiver Kelly Campbell ran 12 yards on an end-around in the Lions' loss to Minnesota. Add to that the big passing plays, and it's obvious the Lions have a big-play problem. Jeff Blake threw a 71-yard touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin in the Arizona game, and Gus Frerotte made 72-yard completions to Randy Moss and Campbell in the Minnesota game, the latter for a touchdown. Detroit’s running game will also be a big factor in this outcome. The Lions failed to score on two plays from the 2-yard line and two plays from the 1-yard line in Week 3. Shawn Bryson and Olandis Gary are powerful interior runners who can pick up yardage after contact, but they lack speed and must have a seam to be effective. The Lions won't have much success running outside against Broncos linebackers with excellent range. Gary might have some incentive heading back to his hometown against his former team. Joey Harrington has a bad finger but it shouldn’t affect his play at all as once was originally thought. He will have some more weapons in the passing game this week as well. After practicing all week, it appears Az-Zahir Hakim will play. This will be his first game since November 17 of last season when he injured his hip. We have another solid system going in this game that favors the Lions. This system is 19-3 ATS since 1973 and there is a tightener that makes it 13-0 ATS. We can’t buck a perfect system and we really do think that the Broncos won’t be 100% into this game.

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