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**InsiderEdge** · 09-28-2003, 01:17 AM

Congrats to everyone who cashed in on our Saturday card. A 7-2 day in NCAA football brings in +13.5 units. Everyone who purchased our One Day Pass made a ton of cash and they get Sunday for FREE to top it off. You won’t find hard work and this type of solid analysis anywhere guaranteed. Good work folks. And for those who missed out for the second consecutive weekend after we alerted you what we had in store, sorry once again. Hope you had a good day as well. If not, ride us on Sunday to get back what you lost.

115 Texas Tech Red Raiders at 116 Mississippi Rebels 7:00 pm EST

Over 65 Texas Tech/Mississippi (3 Units)

If you like to see explosive offenses go at it, the look no further. Both Eli Manning and B.J. Symons should have field days against weak defenses, especially against the pass. Texas Tech comes in ranked 98th against the pass and 104th in total defense. Mississippi is ranked 114th against the pass and 94th overall. The Raiders racked up 681 total yards against N.C. State last week but failed to capitalize on several scoring chances in a 49-21 loss. Texas Tech is averaging 524.7 yards per game in its first three games, and the Rebels aren't far behind with 463.3. The Wolfpack and Rebels run similar offenses and have top-tier QBs in control. The Red Raiders struggled against Phillip Rivers on Saturday and will have their hands full again with Eli Manning. But it's the other two areas of the game, defense or lack thereof, and special teams, that could make the difference in a win or loss Saturday. "They're difficult to defend," Ole Miss head coach David Cutcliffe said. "The key is getting people in the right places (on defense). Assignment football is going to be very important." The Rebels' defense fell apart in the fourth quarter of their only loss, allowing 23 points in a 44-34 loss to the Memphis Tigers at the Liberty Bowl. They showed some improvement the following week, a 59-14 victory over Louisiana-Monroe, but no one will compare the Indians' offense with what the Rebels are facing Saturday. "I've been looking forward to this game for quite some time," Manning said Monday. "Last year, I came in and threw an interception and just didn't play good at first. I've really wanted to play them again and take another shot at them and win the game." Manning wasn't too shabby in his outing against the Red Raiders a year ago. He finished the game with 374 yards and three touchdowns on 34-of-57 passing, but he had a crucial interception in the second quarter that defensive end Adell Duckett returned for a touchdown. The defensive score was part of 17 straight points put up by the Raiders in the second period, and the Rebels could never catch up after that, suffering a 42-28 loss — their first defeat in 25 non-conference matchups. Only five players on the Texas Tech defense have started more than five college football games in their careers. The Texas Tech defense has surrendered just a field goal and a touchdown in the first half of the first three games, but nine touchdowns in second halves. "Right now, we don't know if it's mental toughness or if we're just getting tired from (being on) the field so much," linebacker Mike Smith said. "It's something we need to work through to get a better defense." Something tells us it won’t be this week. What defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich more or less predicted for months is coming true: With 15 freshmen, sophomores and junior newcomers playing key roles, the Raiders aren't able to extend themselves past a few good series. Setencich says there's no shortcut; building up mental toughness and know-how comes only through playing a lot of college football games. They will learn a lot this week against the Rebels. Barring any quirky plays and unfortunate turnovers at the wrong time, this game should be over by the 3rd quarter.

121 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 122 Purdue Boilermakers 3:30 pm EST

Purdue –10.5 (3 Units)

It’s now or never for the Purdue seniors on Saturday. Purdue's seniors have never beaten Notre Dame. "That's why we're practicing our (tails) off this week," defensive tackle Craig Terrill said, "so we can put that behind us and get a (win)." It's a special week and the anticipation is running high. "Absolutely. We promote it," Boilermaker head coach Joe Tiller said Tuesday. "I told our team on Sunday, this is why you play Division I football. This is why you came to Purdue. To play in this game. This is why I came to Purdue to coach. To coach in this game." Purdue comes in 28th in the country in total offense but are coming off a huge game against Arizona last week and that is something they should carry into this matchup. There is all the talk about how good the Irish defense is and that Purdue might find the going tough. Well, Notre Dame ranks 95 in passing defense, allowing 262.5 ypg and 8.3 ypa. The rush defense isn’t much better, yielding 141 ypg which ranks 66th. Overall, the defense is allowing 356 ypg which puts them at 63rd in the country (compared to 14th last season). On the offensive side, things are much worse. They can’t find the end zone as the Irish have scored only one touchdown with Carlyle Holiday at quarterback this season. They are ranked 99th in passing offense, 93rd in rushing offense and 113th in total offense, amassing a poultry 253 ypg. Irish head coach Tyrone Willingham finally admitted Tuesday, his Notre Dame team does not have a handle on his offensive system. A team that has spent 21 months with its nose in his West Coast playbook, still can't move the ball north or south. "Right now," Willingham said in his weekly news conference, "no one has adjusted. We are not very productive in our offense and we have to be much better at that. . . . We are not executing and we are not doing the things that good offenses do." Willingham won't reveal who he will start at quarterback until game time Saturday. If not for a meltdown by Washington State, the Irish could be 0-3. Willingham said Thursday he had not yet decided whether it would be Holiday, the starter for 24 of the past 25 games, or freshman Brady Quinn. Either way, they will struggle against the Boilermakers defense that is 16th in the country, allowing 275 ypg. Last week, after finding black jerseys, which had been dropped for gold tops last season, in their locker room, the Boilermakers demolished Arizona with 580 total yards and four turnovers. "It brings the swagger back,'' linebacker Niko Koutouvides said of the black shirts. "You look good, you feel good, you play good.'' The switch will be permanent, coach Joe Tiller said: "You won't see us wearing gold again.'' The Boilermakers received good news on the MRI taken of senior linebacker Landon Johnson's right hip, which he injured Saturday against Arizona. The good news is the MRI was negative," Tiller said. "So we don't have a cracked hip or something like that. He's extremely sore." Other Boilermakers nursing minor injuries -- free safety Stuart Schweigert (ankle), offensive tackle Kelly Butler (knee), running back Brandon Jones (thigh), wide receiver/punt returner Anthony Chambers (knee) and fullback/special teams player Patrick Schaub (knee) -- also are expected to play Saturday. Tiller said free safety Stuart Schweigert will play Saturday, one day after he is expected to plead guilty to a public-intoxication charge. The Boilermakers are playing better than the Irish in just about every area. The motivation would be here no matter what since it is Notre Dame they are playing but there is that little extra this year for the seniors who want to graduate with a victory over their state rival. They get that win in easy fashion on Saturday.

129 Cincinnati Bearcats at 130 Miami Ohio Redhawks 2:00 pm EST

Cincinnati +7 (2 Units)

The Bearcats are coming off a less than spectacular win over Temple while the Redhawks are coming back home after a win at Colorado St. Winning games on the road is no surprise to the RedHawks, as they finished the '02 season 5-2 away from home. However, the team now returns to Yager Stadium where it finished a dismal 2-3 last season. In this series, the RedHawks have won each of the last two games, 31-26 last year at Nippert Stadium and 21-14 two years ago at Yager Stadium. For Cincinnati, hopefully their near loss to Temple last week was a wakeup call. Cincinnati QB Gino Guidugli is coming off his best game of the young season. He passed for 321 yards and one touchdown last week, rallying the Bearcats from a two-touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter to a triple-overtime victory. On the year, Guidugli has completed 57.3 percent of his throws for an average of 196.0 ypg. He has also tossed three touchdowns against no interceptions. Guidugli spread the ball around against the Owls, with five receivers catching at least three balls. It's hard to quibble with the Bearcats' fast start, even though their three wins have come against teams that have a combined 1-10 record. But there is some concern about how the newly vulnerable Cincinnati defense will fare this week against Miami and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in Oxford. They yielded 522 total yards to Temple after coming in with the #5 defense in the nation. However, where the unit excelled was on third downs, holding the Owls to just 5-of-17 conversions. As the fifth-oldest rivalry in Division I-A football, this always has the makings of a huge battle. The Bearcats have some double revenge going here plus Guidugli is 5-0 ATS as a road dog in his career at Cincinnati.

149 Akron Zips at 150 Buffalo Bulls 6:00 pm EST

Akron –15.5 (3 Units)

We were on the Zips two weeks ago at Eastern Michigan as a 21-point chalk, proclaiming that Zips should have been able to name the score. They should have as they outyarded Eastern Michigan 471-284 but they were only able to muster a 2nd half field goal in holding off the Eagles. The Zips entered Eastern Michigan territory in 5 of their 7 second half drives but two turnovers on downs, a fumble, and the final drive that ended the game were 4 missed opportunities to get the cover. They ended just 3-7 in redzone scoring. They now face a team much worse than the Eagles and the spread is less. Go figure. Zips QB Charlie Frye should probably run against this team for the cover. Zips name the score here. The only caveat is the Zips have Miami Ohio up next, but they could sleepwalk through this game and still destroy the hapless Bulls. The offense is starting to settle in while the defense is gaining more confidence. From Week 1, the Zips' offense has been high-powered, led by junior quarterback Charlie Frye and a talented receiving corps that includes Matt Cherry, Miquel Irvin and Nick Sparks, all seniors. Frye is third in the nation in total offense (342.3 yards per game), fourth in total passing yards (1,301 yards), fifth in completions (27.5), seventh in completion percentage (69.6) and 22nd in passing efficiency (149.6). Overall, the Zips are #1 in the country in total offense with 536 ypg. But in recent weeks, the running game has started to become more productive, led by 5-foot-10, 206-pound senior Bobby Hendry. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of his last 10 games, dating to last season. Right now, he's 29th in the nation, averaging 93 yards per game. “We have a veteran line that is starting to come along and Bobby is starting to pick up where he left off last year,'' Akron head coach Lee Owens said. “The big problem we had in the first few games was adjusting our offensive philosophy,'' said Owens. “We've been more of a two-back offense in the past and now, we're not as much of a two-back offense. The early struggles might have been our adjustment to being more of a wide-open offense.'' Meanwhile, the defense has put together a very modest streak of five consecutive shutout quarters. Howard scored a touchdown last week, but it came in a 99-yard fumble return in the second half. Although Howard is a Division I-AA team, Owens said that shouldn't take anything away from the Zips' defensive effort. Buffalo is having problems everywhere on both sides of the ball. The defense is ranked dead last, allowing 521 ypg. The rushing defense is 116th, allowing 280 ypg and a nation’s worst 12 touchdowns and 5.8 ypc. While the passing defense is a somewhat respectable 66th in the country, most of that success is due to the fact that their opposition has had such big leads, there is no need to pass. Their 8.1 ypa average is 97th in the nation. Buffalo's four top tacklers on Saturday against Connecticut, Mark Graham, J.J. Gibson, Michael Arroyo and Delan Bradford, are all play defensive backs which is not a good way to stop teams. The low point of the season had to be the blowout loss to 1-AA Colgate. They don’t have the heart and they don’t seem to be playing for their coach anymore as witnessed by players missing practices on a daily basis. Frye should keep the Zips flying here.

157 Navy Midshipmen at 158 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7:00 pm EST

Navy -1 (3 Units)

A lot of motivation here for the Midshipmen as Navy has a chance to record its first 3-1 start since 1996, which is the last time the Midshipmen went to a bowl game. Navy is running the ball well and taking good care of it, forcing turnovers, not allowing big plays and playing hustling, hard-nosed defense overall. Navy's Craig Candeto will never throw for a ton of yards, but he's running the offense extremely well. If he can complete a few more passes, the offense will really roll. Candeto directed an offense that rolled up 464 yards in the 39-7 rout of visiting Eastern Michigan last week. Yet that same offense sputtered early due to missed blocking assignments and incorrect reads. The Midshipmen also had a ton of yardage, including a pair of touchdowns, wiped out by penalties. "I don't know if it was the week off or what, but we weren't executing very well in the first half. We were rusty," Navy head coach Paul Johnson said. "Penalties killed us. We must have had three drives brought back because of holding penalties." Navy was whistled for 10 penalties totaling 89 yards on Saturday after having only 10 penalties for 71 yards in two previous games. It would be hard to complain too much about a defense that is dramatically improved over last season. Navy held Eastern Michigan to 271 total yards and forced six turnovers. The Midshipmen have now pitched first-half shutouts in all three games. Navy is allowing 11.3 points a game, good for eighth in the country. Defensive coordinator Buddy Green said the biggest change this season is that Navy is no longer giving up big-play touchdowns. The Midshipmen are forcing teams to drive the field. "As long as we can make them take another snap, we've got a chance," Green said. "We have pushed this group hard and they are starting to understand how hard you've got to practice and the intensity with which you have to play." Navy switched to a 3-4 alignment to get more athletic players on the field and create better pursuit. The Midshipmen also rely on versatile players who can man different positions, depending on the situation. The Midshipmen are #1 in the country in turnover margin taking away 12 and turning it over five times. Don't discount how big that is. For a team that's not the most talented in college football, not making mistakes leads to wins. Both of Rutgers wins have come against arguably 2 of the worst teams in 1-A, Army and Buffalo. Their only loss came against Michigan St. by 16 points. Nagging injuries to Rutgers' two biggest offensive playmakers continue to be a source of consternation to head coach Greg Schiano. Fullback/tailback Brian Leonard was limited to conditioning drills at practice and wide receiver Tres Moses limped off early to have his tender right ankle worked on by the trainers and the status of both for Saturday's home game against Navy is still uncertain. Schiano said he has yet to decide on a field-goal kicker. Rutgers used three against Army. Schiano said he'd like to "let someone have a little bit of a chance," which could mean that Ryan Sands, who is 6-of-16 on field goals over the past two seasons, will give way to either Mike Cortese or Justin Musiek. Best bet is Cortese, who hit a 36-yard field goal against Army. "It all depends on how things go this week in practice," Schiano said. In what could very well be a close game, a huge advantage goes to Navy in the kicking game. The Scarlet Knights are 0-4 and have been outscored 190-24 following byes under Schiano.

163 South Carolina Gamecocks at 164 Tennessee Volunteers 7:45 pm EST

South Carolina +16 (3 Units)

The Gamecocks will look to ride their momentum from last week into Knoxville, a place where they are 0-11 lifetime. However, the last three meetings in this series have been close, black-and-blue contests. The Volunteers have won all three by a combined 18 points. "Three years in a row we get in a game with a chance to win and they make a play to win the game," South Carolina head coach Holtz said. The running game will determine the outcome in this contest. Tennessee's Cedric Houston is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, but he has yet to find the end zone. Houston couldn't get going against Florida, and he could have similar problems against South Carolina. The Vols' run game ranks 14th in the nation, but they'll be facing a South Carolina defense that ranks 10th overall nationally. Offensively, South Carolina's Demetris Summers busted out last week against UAB rushing for 161 yards and three scores. Overall, South Carolina is 31st in rushing offense, averaging 182 ypg and 4.4 ypc. The Volunteers like to control the game on the ground, but that's not going to happen against the Gamecock defense. The Gamecocks give up a mere 119 yards per game on the ground, good for 43rd in the country and should keep Cedric Houston and Jabari Davis in check. The offensive line was supposed to be the strongpoint and while it has done the job, it has not met expectations. Lack of execution has made for a competitive situation among at least eight players in the trenches. "We don't know who we'll name as starters until later in the week,'' Tennessee offensive line coach Jimmy Ray Stephens said. "We'll keep the rotation going.'' The tape of the Florida game doesn't lie, and neither did CSS broadcaster Bob Bell in the first half of the game when he said, "The shock continues to be Tennessee's offensive line getting beaten up front by the much smaller Florida Gators.'' The Vols entered the season with a goal of allowing 10 sacks. Through three games, Tennessee has surrendered six, and at least three fall squarely on the shoulders of the offensive line. Holtz's decreased role in the offense and increased involvement with the defense appears to have benefited both sides. The Gamecocks' scoring is down slightly from this point last season (from 26.0 ppg to 23.5), but South Carolina has improved in every other major offensive category. In fact, if the Gamecocks had made even half of the six field goals they've missed this season, their scoring average would be virtually identical to last year. The defense also is better statistically through four games, despite playing virtually the same early schedule as last season against two quality opponents (Virginia and Georgia) and two lesser, nonconference foes (New Mexico State and Temple in '02, Louisiana-Lafayette and Alabama-Birmingham this year). "The defense, featuring a very athletic secondary, is stronger than the defense we saw last week," Tennessee head coach Philip Fulmer said of the Gamecocks stop unit. The Gamecocks changed their defensive alignment from three linemen last year to four linemen this year after defensive coordinator Charlie Strong left for Florida. South Carolina starting receivers Troy Williamson (right quad) and Matthew Thomas (knee sprain) were unable to finish practice Tuesday, but head trainer Rod Walters is optimistic both will play Saturday. Tennessee defensive backs Chris Heath and Jason Allen were transported from the Vols' indoor practice facility to the University of Tennessee Medical Center after colliding during a pass-coverage drill. The availability of the players for Saturday's game against South Carolina will be determined later in the week. We see this being a smashmouth game and this has all the making of a defensive battle. Tennessee is coming off their big win in Gainesville so a small letdown is always a possibility. This is just too many points to pass up with the solid defense and running game of the Gamecocks.

167 Missouri Tigers at 168 Kansas Jayhawks 12:30 pm EST

Kansas +10 (3 Units)

In what should be a very entertaining game, Kansas finally has the tools to walk out of the Border War with a win on Saturday. But Kansas coach Mark Mangino isn't letting the Jayhawks' 3-1 start get to his head going into Saturday's Big 12 opener. Though the Jayhawks' offense is the most improved in the nation, jumping from 105th in total offense in 2002 to fourth this week, the second-year KU coach tempers his praise by saying, "I don't know how good of a team we are. But the players think they're pretty good and that's all that matters." The Jayhawks have the perfect opportunity on Saturday to keep the momentum going, playing a Missouri team that's tabbed by many as the Big 12 team on the move up. Kansas has a shot to win in Lawrence because Missouri's defense (339.8 yards a game allowed) is among the Big 12's worst. Against Middle Tennessee St. the results were missed tackles and blown assignments. The Blue Raiders compiled scoring drives of 82, 81 and 78 yards. Starting midway through the second quarter, they scored on five of six possessions. Quarterback Andrico Hines exposed the Tigers’ zone coverages, usually finding wide-open receivers streaking between the defensive front and secondary something Kansas QB Bill Whittemore can take advantage of as well. Missouri can’t afford another defensive snooze against the Jayhawks, who own the nation’s second-most prolific offense. Behind Whittemore, Kansas is averaging 499 yards and 37 points per game. Missouri comes in ranked in the top 25 but their schedule hasn’t turned that many heads. Illinois might not qualify anymore as a quality win, while Ball State, Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee St. hardly commands respect. Blue Raider QB Hines is average at best and took apart the Tigers defense so how do they expect to handle Whittemore. The kicking game is also a big question mark for Missouri. Kicker Mike Matheny, who had lost his job and then won it back in the preseason, had two PATs blocked and hit two kickoffs out of bounds last week against Middle Tennessee State. Giving the Jayhawks a short field could be deadly. Just in case Kansas University's football players had forgotten, a visual reminder of last year's loss to Missouri was pasted on each and every one of the Jayhawks' lockers Tuesday – a picture of the Tigers and their fan tearing down the goal posts after last season’s win. The Jayhawks remain baffled that Missouri's fans, and even some of their players, tore down the posts after last year's 36-12 victory over Kansas at Faurot Field in Columbia, Mo. The loss dropped the Jayhawks to 2-7, while MU improved to 4-4 at the time. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kansas had sold 44,600 tickets for Saturday's game. The crowd likely will be Kansas' largest for a home game since Nebraska drew 50,750 in 2001. The last time a home game against Missouri drew close to a sellout was in 1995 when 11th-ranked KU beat Missouri, 42-23, in front of 46,300 spectators. We see a high scoring game here and it wouldn’t surprise us that the team with the ball last wins this one.

171 Pittsburgh Panthers at 172 Texas A&M Aggies 3:30 pm EST

Pittsburgh -1 (2 Units)

Pittsburgh will look to get back on track after their stunning loss at Toledo last weekend. The defense especially will need a more focused effort in an attempt to stop the Aggies and their quick QB Reggie McNeal. The defense had not allowed an opponent >30 since 10/01 before last weekend and that should be motivation enough for this group. Pitt head coach Walt Harris said the Panthers' defense was confused because the Rockets ran a number of different plays and formations that they hadn't run in their previous three games. He also said some of Pitt's defensive players became fatigued later in the game. The Aggies will use a totally different formation than what the Rockets used against Pitt, one that is not as complex and one that they are accustomed to seeing. Texas A&M is ranked 100th in passing offense, 65th in rushing offense and 98th in total offense. Offensively, the Panthers are known for their outstanding passing attack with Rod Rutherford and Larry Fitzgerald making highlight plays, but they can run as well with Brandon Miree. The pounding runner should have a big day against an Aggie D that's giving up over 197 yards per game on the ground, good for 100th in the country. The Aggies rank 3rd in the nation in pass defense, allowing only 122.3 yards a game, but haven't faced a passer like the Panthers' Rod Rutherford, who leads the nation in pass efficiency. Aggie corners Sean Weston and Ronald Jones will be on the spot and must make plays. A&M has only two interceptions this year, both by safety Jaxson Appel. Harris appears to be upbeat as he discussed the challenge that lies ahead for the Panthers, who after playing at Texas A&M and then a bye week, play host to Notre Dame. He talked of the Panthers' lofty goals and why he's sure they will put the loss behind them. He said that the measure of a team's character is in how it responds to adversity. "Football is all about being resilient," Harris said. "You play one at a time and learn from the last game. I think kids are very resilient these days. We played our hearts out and we were really devastated that we didn't win, but I don't think we are going to be living with that loss. But we're going to find out who we are.” Dino Babers, who is in his first season as Pitt's running backs coach, was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Texas A&M the past two seasons. Babers' insight into the Aggies and their personnel will be helpful for the Pitt coaching staff because this is the first time the Panthers have visited Kyle Field. Babers said there is another factor that catches opponents off guard - the Texas heat, so the Panthers should be prepared and take the correct measures to combat it. We think the Panthers bounce back here for a little redemption after the Aggies came to Heinz Field last year and walked out with a 14-12 victory. Pitt has won 17 of their last 22 games and all it will take here is a straight up victory to get the money, which they should have no problem doing.

177 TCU Horned Frogs at 178 Arizona Wildcats 10:00 pm EST

TCU -15 (2 Units)

Though Arizona has lost its last three games by a combined 166-30 score, coach John Mackovic said he's seen some improvement. Perhaps he closed his eyes. As pointed out by the Arizona Daily Star, the Wildcats rank 80th or worse out of 117 Division I-A teams in 15 of 20 statistical categories, and the 118 points they have surrendered the past two games match the total the 1992 team gave up the entire season under former coach Dick Tomey. They have given up three times more yards (1,554) than they have gained (536) over the past three games. "We're trying to show them how close they really are," Mackovic said. If anything, they’re close to firing Mackovic. While Mackovic insisted his team continues to respond to coaching "individually and collectively," that doesn't mean there won't be wholesale changes against 17th-ranked TCU on Saturday. True freshman Kris Heavner, who played nearly the entire second half against Purdue, probably will start ahead of Nic Costa and Ryan O'Hara. Heavner already is Arizona's first true freshman quarterback to play since Ronnie Veal in 1987. TCU is banged up on offense as Brandon Hassell makes his second start at quarterback, while redshirt freshman Robert Merrill takes over at tailback. Merrill came in last week and rushed for 119 yards against Vanderbilt. Normally it would be a concern but the experience in the offensive line will more than make up for it. TCU ranks 31st in the country in total defense, something they are not very proud of. Motivation will not be an issue here as they will be looking to shut down the rather pedestrian Wildcats offense and they should easily succeed. Arizona is ranked 102nd in passing offense, 96th in rushing offense, 114th in total offense and 92nd in scoring offense. We don’t see them getting much done against the veteran Horned Frogs. Defensively, they are hurting just as much. After shutting UTEP down in their opener, the Wildcats have allowed 55.3 ppg their last 3 games. They are near the bottom in most defensive categories as well – 94th in passing defense, 94th in rushing defense, 108th in total defense and 116th in scoring defense. Most coaches beg for more intensity from their players. TCU head coach Gary Patterson said his team might do well with a little less. "I think we actually needed to tone it down a bit against Vandy because we almost had some fights out there," Patterson said. "We're a lot more physical now than we've been in the past." That is something that does not exist on the Arizona side of the field. These are the games that good teams don't falter in and we think TCU comes out strong. Even though it is only Arizona, it is still a PAC 10 team and the win will go a long way into the season.

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