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As a recent example of the information, analysis, and advice our clients receive, here is our PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT released late Saturday for our Sunday selections:
7 STAR SELECTION (5% of Bankroll)
NY Giants +2.5 over WASHINGTON
Early-season supremacy in the NFC East will be on the line when the New York Giants travel down to Washington to meet the Redskins at FedEx Field on Sunday. The Giants had a short week to prepare for the 'Skins, who are 2-0 for the first time since 1991, the year of their last Super Bowl championship. New York is coming off its first loss of the season, a 35-32 Monday night heartbreaker vs. Bill Parcells' Cowboys. The Redskins are one of eight unbeaten teams after two weeks of play thanks to a big 33-31 comeback victory over the Falcons in Atlanta. The Redskins erased a 17-point deficit en route to their second straight win, which came on the heels of a 3-point home win over the Jets.
The Giants, who have their bye next week, are 12-4 in games prior to their bye week. Off the tough loss against the Cowboys, New York will not want to have that bad taste in their mouth for 2 more weeks, so we are looking for a very determined effort here by New York, despite the short week. The Giants' offense did very little in the first half of last week's game against Dallas, as the unit was shut out in the first 30 minutes. QB Kerry Collins lacked the time to throw the football because of a lot of new faces on the offensive line. The G-Men started three rookie offensive linemen in the contest, which came back to haunt them. Luke Petitgout will return to his perch at left tackle, giving the unit some much needed. The young group did play much better in the second half and afforded Collins enough time to throw three second-half TD passes en route to the thrilling comeback. They should do a much better job of pass protecting and run blocking this week. Washington's defense has played well through two games, ranking second overall in the NFL in total defense; however, they have got to face 2 teams without their starting quarterbacks. They will get a real test from Collins and Giants.
Things are starting to come together for Washington in their second full season under Spurrier. The Redskins needed to throw the ball a lot last week to dig themselves out of a 17-0 first-half deficit, but Spurrier still managed to get his top two running backs, Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts, a combined total of 26 carries. The former Florida Gator has adjusted his offense to better suit the flow of NFL games, and it has paid off in the form of a surprising 2-0 start. Patrick Ramsey has found a groove at QB for Washington and has looked much better in Spurrier's offense this year.
The Redskins bubble is primed to burst here. Both victories were by very slim margins against teams missing many key players from last year. Now they'll be facing the best offense and the best defense of the year and will have their hands more than full. They are 0-6 ATS at home off a road win and an ugly 1-10 ATS as a favorite vs. division foes. We also have a couple of PRO INFO SPORTS Power Systems in support of the Giants in this game. Week 3 road dogs of less than 7 points off 2 home games are 12-2 ATS since 1992, beating the spread by 10 points a game, and road teams off a SU home overtime loss that followed a SU home win are 8-0 ATS. New York will have the "eye of the tiger" here and should win the game SU as a live dog.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NY GIANTS 24 WASHINGTON 20
6 STAR SELECTION (4.75% of Bankroll)
DETROIT +4 over Minnesota
Last year, the Minnesota Vikings didn't win their third game until week 11. Now they are tryingn to equal that amount of wins on Sunday when they travel to Motown to take on NFC North rival Detroit at Ford Field. Minnesota has actually ripped off five straight wins dating back to last season, including Sunday's 24-13 win over the Chicago Bears at the Metrodome. After an excellent start of his own, Steve Mariucci's reign in the Motor City hit a snag. The Detroit smiles quickly turned to frowns following a disappointing 31-6 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last week which came on the heels of their 42-24 opening day win over Arizona.
The Vikes' QB, Daunte Culpepper, performed very well for the second straight game last week, although he continues to have a problem holding on to the ball, as he had the ball slip out of his hands three times, losing one deep in enemy territory. Minnesota has abandoned the "Randy ratio" in not trying to force the ball into all-Pro wideout Randy Moss, in favor of a brutal ground game. They will looking grind out a win here over the Lions. Detroit, which has been constantly tweaking its secondary since the preseason due to injuries, actually played very well against the pass in Green Bay, but couldn't stop the run. The Motor City men will obviously be looking for a way to plug running holes this week with its undersized linebacking corps. Detroit does have some talent on the defensive line and should do a better job here at home.
Lions QB Joey Harrington is certainly progressing, although he continues to struggle on the road. He came back to earth against the Packers last week after a big game against Arizona. He plays much better at home and we look for him to return to form against Minnesota. He has an improving set receivers to throw to starting with exciting rookie Charles Rogers. The catch corps should get a big boost this week with the long-awaited return of wideout Az-Zahir Hakim. With not much of a ground game going right now, look for the Lions to use a 3-receiver set often to keep the Vikes "D" off balance. Minnesota's new-look secondary is making it tough for foes to throw the ball, although they are a bit dinged up right now. Former Lion linebacker Chris Claiborne, who left for the Twin Cities in the offseason, is the anchor of the Vikings' much-improved run defense. One area where the Vikings' defense has lacked is getting pressure on the quarterback, as it has just four sacks. If they can't put pressure on Harrington, Detroit's QB will find open receivers.
There's no question that Minnesota has looked strong after 2 wins. Sneaking up as a road underdog like they did in Green Bay is one thing, while going out and dominating a division opponent as a road favorite is something else. They will get their stiffest test yet going into the Lions' den. Marriucci really stressed taking care of business at home with his new team, and Detroit has responded, making Ford Field an even tougher venue for visiting teams. Minnesota is due for a letdown and may have a hard time matching the Lions intensity here. The Vikings are 1-7 ATS on the road off a SU victory, and 1-7-1 ATS as a road fave of 6 or less points, including 0-3 at Detroit.
Detroit will go all out here off their loss and with their upcoming schedule. In fact, the Lions are 7-0 ATS at home when they play on the road in each of the next 2 weeks, crushing the pointspread by 14 points a game. In looking at Minnesota, the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS on the road vs. such opponents in their last 5 tries. The Purple Purple Eaters are also 1-4 ATS on the road vs. division opponents that have a non-division road game the following week. The Lions, when hosting a division foe in such situations is an amazing 12-1 ATS. We also note that Detroit is 8-0 ATS as a home dog off scoring less than 13 points, beating the spread by 10 points a game. Finally, in the last 12+ years, the Lions have been made a division home dog 3 times off a division road loss, and have covered the spread each time. This should be a typical black-and-blue division knock-down-drag-out fight with Detroit pulling off the SU upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: DETROIT 27 MINNESOTA 24
5 STAR SELECTION (4.5% of Bankroll)
Pittsburgh -4 over CINCINNATI
The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for their first win when they take the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Bengals fought and clawed against the Raiders last week, but came up short, 23-20, at the Coliseum. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters off a tough 41-20 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers jumped ahead early but were outscored 27-3 in the final three quarters en route to the defeat.
Pittsburgh quarterback Tommy Maddox is off to another strong start as he enjoys perhaps the best collection of receivers in the league. The Steelers havd struggled with the running game, so expect them to try to establish the run early in this contest, loosening up the Cincinnati secondary for the pass. The Bengals rank 13th in the AFC in run defense and had trouble handling the Oakland running game last week.
Pittsburgh will get a big lift on the defensive side of the ball this week with the return of top linebacker Joey Porter. Porter, who is recovering from being shot in the thigh, led the team with 89 tackles, nine sacks and four interceptions last season and is clearly the leader of this defense. He'll look to help shore up the Steelers run defense that is near the bottom of the conference rankings after 2 games. Cincinnati's running game could be slowed a bit this week as Corey Dillon is hampered with a hyperextended knee.
Bengals quarterback Jon Kitna has been known to make crucial mistakes when under pressure. Kitna, who threw for 303 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, has been picked off four times in two weeks. It was Kitna who first exposed the Pittsburgh defensive secondary weakness a couple of years ago; however, the Steelers have improved their coverage this season and will be looking forward to facing Kitna here. Last week, for example, they limited Trent Green to just 125 yards and intercepted him twice. His passer rating was 62.7.
Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back in a big way here. They are an incredible 46-0 ATS in road games they win SU after playing a non division game. On the road vs. a divisional foe with a non-division opponent at home the following week, the Steelers are 8-0-2 ATS, including 3-0 vs. these Bengals, beating the spread by a hefty 15 points a game. In the reverse role, Cinci is an awful 0-8 SU/ATS, losing to the mark by an average of 11 points a game. Other numbers paint a frightening picture for the Bengals here. They are 0-5 ATS at home vs a divisional opponent after facing a non-divisional opponent on the road, losing to the spread by 13 points a game, while the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in the reverse role, 1-11 ATS vs. the division after two non-divisional opponents, while Pittsburgh is a commanding 14-1-2 ATS in opposing role. The Bengals were able to hold the ball on offense for a good amount of time against the Raiders but that doesn't bode well for the future. after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time, Cincinnati is 1-11 ATS and after a loss in which they had more than 30 minutes of possession time, they are a putrid 3-17 ATS. Incredibly, Cincinnati is 0-11 ATS as a September favorite or underdog of less than 7 points over the past 12 seasons. We also have a couple of PRO INFO SPORTS Power Systems in play here. The chart below shows how Sunday home teams have performed off a SU loss of 1-3 points as a double-digit underdog.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1989 PHO PHI H 5-17 +4' L L
1990 PHO CHI H 21-31 +7 L L
1990 CLE BUF H 0-42 +2' L L
1992 TB MIN H 7-35 +6 L L
1993 CIN CLE H 17-28 +4 L L
1993 TB WAS H 17-23 -3 L L
1993 NE CIN H 7-2 -6 W L
1994 HOU BUF H 7-15 -2' L L
1997 NYJ RAI H 23-22 -1' W L
1998 CAR MIA H 9-13 +3 L L
1999 CIN SD H 7-34 -1 L L
As shown, these teams have gone 0-11 ATS, losing to the spread by double digits. Note that the Bengals provided 2 of this sytems previous wins with home SU/ATS losses in 1993 and 1999. The next chart displays how home dogs of 3 points or more do after outrushing an opponent by 150+ yards when they next face a foe off a SU loss.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1992 ATL DAL H 17-41 +8' L L
1995 STL SF H 10-44 +3' L L
1995 STL MIA H 22-41 +6' L L
1996 PIT SF H 15-25 +3 L L
1998 CIN TB H 0-35 +6 L L
1999 CIN PIT H 3-17 +5 L L
2000 NO STL H 21-26 +3' L L
2001 KC PHI H 10-23 +3 L L
2002 WAS PHI H 7-37 +3 L L
Again, we note that Cincinnait qualified twice for this system, including a 1999 SU/ATS loss vs. the team they are facing today. These systems tell us that after such a strong performance that did not produce a win last week, Cincinnati will have a hard time coming up with a similar effort against a hungry Steelers team, as Pittsburgh should get the solid SU/ATS win here.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PITTBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 17
4 STAR SELECTION (4.25% of Bankroll)
CLEVELAND +7 over San Francisco
For the first time in their existence, the Cleveland Browns pay a visit to San Francisco to meet the 49ers. San Francisco has split its first two games after falling 27-24 in overtime to the St. Louis Rams at the Edward James Dome, while Cleveland is reeling with back-to-back losses to open the season for the first time since 1999.
Kelly Holcomb has posted a poor 49.4 quarterback rating in the first two contests for the Browns, which is surprising considering how well he played last year including the playoffs. He has faced 2 pretty good pass defenses but could have a breakout game here against a beleagured 49ers secondary. Expect the 49ers to do everything they can to get pressure on Holcomb this week so he won't have time to find his receivers, but the Browns offensive line has done a good job of protecting their signal caller. New 'Niners head coach Dennis Erickson has brought a very aggressive style with him, which translates into a defense that likes to blitz and make big plays. Big plays will also be available to the Browns if they can pick up the blitzes and Holcomb gets the ball to his receivers. San Francisco's defensive weakness is its secondary. Cleveland will likely try to take advantage of the 49ers' secondary with the receiving trio of Dennis Northcutt, Quincy Morgan and Kevin Johnson.
Cleveland's defense was dominated by Jamal Lewis and the Baltimore running game last week. Lewis torched the Browns' for an NFL-record 295 yards. The Browns' young linebacking corps, which had an excellent game against Indianapolis in week 1, couldn't find an answer for Lewis. The defense was obviously completely embarrassed by their performance and we look for them to respond with a much better performance here, although they will have their work cut out against the 49ers. The San Francisco offensive unit stumbled through the St. Louis game, as both QB Jeff Garcia and top wideout Terrell Owens suffered mild concussions in the first half. They actually had a chance to win in regulation after recovering an onside kick. Garcia found Cedrick Wilson for a 29-yard connection in field goal range, but the receiver failed to get out of bounds and time ran out on the offense. Cleveland has been solid against the pass this year and we look for that trend to continue as they frustrate the Garcia-to-Owens connection.
It was an extremely difficult loss for the 49ers to swallow, one that will likely linger. San Francisco has had a hard time getting over close losses the past few years. Since 1999, when coming off a lose of 3 points or less, the 49ers are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing to the spread by a mind-boggling 20 points a game! The Browns are 4-1 ATS facing teams off such a close defeat. We also have a PRO INFO SPORTS Power System in play here, as September non-division home favorites of less than 10 points off a SU dog loss vs. an opponent also off a SU dog loss are a nightmarish 2-19 ATS over the past 12+ seasons of NFL play. This trend has covered 12 straight games since 1995, with the home teams going just 1-11 SU. While we aren't expecting a Browns SU win here, they should give the 'Niners a battle to the end.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SAN FRANCISCO 24 CLEVELAND 20
3 STAR SELECTION (% of Bankroll)
Baltimore -1 over SAN DIEGO
Fresh off his record-setting performance in Week 2, running back Jamal Lewis leads the Ravens on a rare cross-country trip to San Diego for a game with the Chargers. Lewis set the NFL's single-game rushing record with 295 yards on 30 carries against Cleveland. For an encore he'll go against a young San Diego defense that has already been shredded on the ground by Kansas City's Priest Holmes and Denver's Clinton Portis. Lewis, who is averaging over 8 yards per carry, leads the NFL in rushing with 364 yards.
The Chargers' run defense, or lack of it, has been the main culprit in an 0-2 start. San Diego is 29th against the run, allowing 329 yards and yielding 5 yards per carry through two games. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer identified the Chargers' problem as poor play on the perimeter after Week 1. Changes were ineffective last week against Portis, who had 129 yards in the first half.
Chargers' coach Marty Schottenheimer knew there would be a learning curve when he blew up the defense and went with youth and speed to repair a unit responsible for a 2-6 finish last season. The Chargers will be challenged to keep lightning from striking again on the ground. The Ravens' line is big, experienced, and deep. The Ravens have been getting acclimated to the West Coast time zone as they left Baltimore for San Diego on Wednesday because of Hurricane Isabel. They are weathering a storm of their own at QB as rookie Kyle Boller struggled last week his second start. Boller, who won the job with strong play, poise and leadership in the preseason, showed some of those qualities again by not making excuses for his performance. He's a fast learner, and he should be fine with the Ravens rock solid running game and defense. Boller will be facing a secondary that is almost as inexperienced as he is. The Chargers will put eight men in the box, but against second-year man Quentin Jammer at one corner and rookie Sammy Davis at he other, Boller should fare better.
While growing pains on defense were to be expected, the performance of the offense has been disappointing, too. San Diego signed free agent receiver David Boston to a $47 million contract to give Drew Brees a deep threat and open things up for Pro Bowl RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Boston had two catches for 20 yards in Week 1 then announced he was not playing in Week 2 because of a heel injury before informing Schottenheimer of his status. During San Diego's 37-13 loss to Denver, Boston was seen taking on his cell phone in a Qualcomm Stadium tunnel instead of being with his teammates on the sideline, and then he left the locker room before Marty addressed the team following their last loss. Needless to say, there are some issues with this team.
Running on the Ravens is always tough, and that will be the challenge for LaDanlian Tomlinson here. He has carried only 29 times in two games because the Chargers have been blown out early. This game figures to be closer, but Ray Lewis and his fellow defenders will be there to make it a rough day for the Chargers offense. While Boston will likely play in this game, No. 2 WR Reche Caldwell is out. The No. 2 TE Josh Norman is also out and starter Stephen Alexander is doubtful. QB Drew Brees will be faced with the task of moving the ball with such an unsettled lineup against one of the best defenses in the league.
The Chargers are not only losing, but they are giving the impression of a team which is unraveling as well. Besides the Boston fiascos, reports came out this week that rookie middle linebacker Matt Wilhelm was arrested for drunk driving, which comes on the heels of last month's arrest of defensive tackle Leonardo Carson on kidnapping and burglary charges. There is speculation that Schottenheimer is losing control of this team. Schottenheimer, despite being the NFL's ninth all-time winningest coach, is two games under .500 with the Chargers, and has seen his squad lose nine of its last 11, dating to the 2002 free-fall it performed after streaking to a 6-1 start. It doesn't figure to get much better here as San Diego is 0-7 against non-divisional opponents between division games, and just 1-9 ATS off a SU division loss. When they lost by double digits in each of the past two weeks and were trailing by at least a TD at the half in both games, they are 0-8-1 ATS, losing to the spread by 10 points a game on average, while Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 SU vs. such foes since 1999.
The Ravens are 9-1 ATS vs. non-divisional AFC opponents, and are 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS when facing a team with no wins after week 2. These 2 teams have the look of going in opposite directions and that figures to continue in this game as well. It won't be easy, but we do like the Ravens to outlast San Diego and to come away with a hard-fought SU/ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 23 SAN DIEGO 20
2 STAR SELECTION (3.75% of Bankroll)
St. Louis +3.5 over SEATTLE
Footballs should be flying through the Seattle sky on Sunday when the Rams come to town to play the soaring Seahawks. The one time "Greatest Show on Turf" is matched up with the NFC West's current leader. Interestingly enought, the winning quarterbacks in the 1999 and 2000 Super Bowls will be on opposite sidelines during the game, but barring injury, that's exactly where they will stay. Trent Dilfer lost his starting job in Seattle to Matt Hasselbeck last season and Kurt Warner was replaced by Marc Bulger as the Rams' starter last week.
Bulger threw for 235 yards and two scores last week, but most importantly he did not turn the ball over and the Rams used more balance on offense. Martz also saw improvement in Bulger as the game went on, and ultimately that is why he decided to make the quarterback switch for the immediate future. After receiving just nine carries in Week 1, Marshall Faulk ran 18 times last week, and we look for his load to be further increased here as he should get 20+ touches. The Rams will certainly be tested by the Hawks and their new defensive coordinator, Ray Rhodes. Playing a pair of rookies in the secondary is usually a great cause for concern, hasn't hurt the Seahawks thus far. The DB's will receive a much stiffer test against the Rams' high-powered offense.
As one-sided as Seattle's victories have been, there is ample room for improvement on offense. Coming off of a 38-0 decking of the Cardinals where the game was put out of reach in the first quarter, it seems odd that the Seahawks have started slowly, but they have. It was the defense that salted away the Arizona game early. Hasselbeck closed last season as one of the hottest passers in he league, but has not thrown the ball nearly as consistently as he did in December. He has completed just 47 percent of his passes this season, although he does have 4 TD's.
After 2 easy wins, Seattle will find themselves in a battle royale here. St. Louis got a huge confidence boost off their home OT win over San Francisco and they simpler play better with Marc Bulger at QB at this point. Bulger has still yet to lose when playing the whole game for the Rams, and St. Louis is becoming battle tested. After hanging tough in New York against a good Giants team, despite SIX Warner fumbles, they found a way to beat another playoff team, the 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle hosted a New Orleans team that just didn't show up, then enjoyed a play day in the desert last week. This game will be much tougher than either of those and the 'Hawks could easily fall short here. The 'Hawks have stumbled in similar situations before, going just 3-11 ATS off a divisional SU/ATS victory. As a division home favorite off a division win, they are 0-6 ATS, losing to the spread by 12 points a game. The Rams, on the other hand, are a tremendous 11-0 SU/9-2 ATS vs. opponents off a SU division win, and in division games are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS on the road vs. teams off a SU division victory. In the last 12+ seasons, Seattle has come in as a home favorite off 2+ SU wins and faced an opponent off a SU win, and came up short each time, ATS, losing all 5 games by an average of 14 points against the number.
Finally, we have a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL Power System in play here as September Sunday home favorites of less than 4 points are 2-17 ATS after scoring 34+ points. Perhaps, even more incredibly, these teams are just 3-16 SU as the chart below shows.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1989 PHI SF H 28-38 -1' L L
1989 NYJ IND H 10-17 -3 L L
1990 GB CHI H 13-31 -1' L L
1993 GB PHI H 17-20 -3' L L
1994 NE BUF H 35-38 -2 L L
1994 SEA SD H 10-24 -3' L L
1994 MIN MIA H 38-35 -3' W L
1994 RAI SD H 24-26 -3' L L
1996 HOU BAL H 29-13 -3' W W
1997 STL SF H 12-15 -1 L L
1998 STL ARZ H 17-20 -3' L L
1999 CIN SD H 7-34 -1 L L
1999 SD IND H 19-27 -1 L L
1999 STL SF H 42-20 -3 W W
2000 PHI NYG H 18-33 -3 L L
2000 RAI DEN H 24-33 -3 L L
2001 ATL CHI H 3-31 -3' L L
2002 ATL CHI H 13-14 -3 L L
In 1994, Seattle was in a situation quite like the one they find themselves in here. The 'Hawks started the season with huge wins over the Redskins (28-7) and Raiders (38-9) before coming home to host division rival San Diego. As shown above, the Chargers came in as 3.5 point dogs and simply won the game SU 24-10. While we're expecting a closer game than that outcome, we do like St. Louis to make a statement here with the SU/ATS upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ST. LOUIS 24 SEATTLE 23
1 STAR SELECTION (3.5% of Bankroll)
ARIZONA +8.5 over Green Bay
With their first win under their belts, the Green Bay Packers return to the field Sunday to face the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium. Green Bay responded to pre-game "pep" talk from QB Brett Favre and found a good rhythm against the Detroit Lions, pasting them 31-6 at newly renovated Lambeau Field. Arizona is still searching for its first win after falling 38-0 to the Seattle Seahawks at home last week.
The Green Bay offensive line can be given a lot of credit for Green's success against Detroit, as it manhandled the Lions' front seven. Ahman Green had a big day to carry the offense for the Packers. Brett Favre and the passing game took a back seat with a depleted receiver corps. Green Bay could still be a man short in the receiving corps this week, as top wideout Donald Driver is still recovering from a neck sprain. Favre is still searching for a breakout game in 2003, as he has posted a pair of mediocre performances. It's a good thing for Arizona that the Pack is unsettled at WR, as their secondary has struggled to keep foes' passing games under wraps.
Of course, when you don't score a point, it's hard to win a game, regardless of how well the defense plays. The Cards are coming off an atrocious offensive performance in which it was shutout for the first time since December 1, 2002. Things went south when veteran starting quarterback Jeff Blake injured his left heel in the game, opening the door for young Josh McCown to play. Blake guarantees he will play this week, and he'll be looking for his talented pair of rookie wide-outs. Bryant Johnson and Anquan Boldin have performed well and will be a good test for the Green Bay secondary.
Arizona is still looking at getting its running game going with Emmitt Smith carrying the ball behind a massive offensive line. The gameplan here will be to get the rush rolling and keep Favre and the Green Bay offense on the sidelines. While there's little chance of Arizona pulling off the SU upset win, we do expect them to be far more competitive here. Getting shut-out at home is the ultimate embarrassment and the veterans on this team should get the team to respond. We know that Emmitt Smith blistered the paint off the wall with a post-game "speech" delivered to his teammates after the loss to the Seahawks.
We would only consider playing the Cards here with a number of our systems supporting them and going against Green Bay, which is the case. Over the past decade of NFL play, September home dogs of more than 7 points off a SU/ATS loss are 11-1 ATS vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, September home dogs of 7+ points are 9-0 ATS vs. opponents that scored at least 26 points last week, non-division home dogs of 6+ points are 17-2 ATS after allowing 36+ points, non-Monday non-division home dogs of 7+ points before a divisional road game are 12-1-2 ATS, and non-division home dogs of 10 points or less are 9-1 ATS off a home shutout loss. Meanwhile, Green Bay is in a prime spot for a letdown as road favorites of more than 3 points before a Monday Night Football road game are 0-9 ATS since 1992, and non-division road teams off a SU win are 2-12 ATS before a MNF road contest.
While Green Bay is still a quality team, they are aging and simply can't give a performance like they did last week every time out. We note that the Pack has struggled as a road favorite, going just 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS last year, losing to the spread by 16 points a game on average. The week after allowing fewer than 10 points, they are 0-4 ATS the last 4 times, and are 0-6-1 ATS when facing a winless team after week 2 of the NFL season. Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the reverse role, including 3-0 at home. Finally, our research shows that Green Bay has faced 3 teams coming off a shutout loss since 1990, and lost 2 of the 3 SU, and all 3 ATS, while the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS off a shutout loss vs. non-division foes. Look for the Packers to come out flat, while Arizona should show a much better effort and at least keep this one respectable for the cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GREEN BAY 23 ARIZONA 20
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As a recent example of the information, analysis, and advice our clients receive, here is our PRO INFO SPORTS GAMEDAY INVESTMENT E-LERT released late Saturday for our Sunday selections:
7 STAR SELECTION (5% of Bankroll)
NY Giants +2.5 over WASHINGTON
Early-season supremacy in the NFC East will be on the line when the New York Giants travel down to Washington to meet the Redskins at FedEx Field on Sunday. The Giants had a short week to prepare for the 'Skins, who are 2-0 for the first time since 1991, the year of their last Super Bowl championship. New York is coming off its first loss of the season, a 35-32 Monday night heartbreaker vs. Bill Parcells' Cowboys. The Redskins are one of eight unbeaten teams after two weeks of play thanks to a big 33-31 comeback victory over the Falcons in Atlanta. The Redskins erased a 17-point deficit en route to their second straight win, which came on the heels of a 3-point home win over the Jets.
The Giants, who have their bye next week, are 12-4 in games prior to their bye week. Off the tough loss against the Cowboys, New York will not want to have that bad taste in their mouth for 2 more weeks, so we are looking for a very determined effort here by New York, despite the short week. The Giants' offense did very little in the first half of last week's game against Dallas, as the unit was shut out in the first 30 minutes. QB Kerry Collins lacked the time to throw the football because of a lot of new faces on the offensive line. The G-Men started three rookie offensive linemen in the contest, which came back to haunt them. Luke Petitgout will return to his perch at left tackle, giving the unit some much needed. The young group did play much better in the second half and afforded Collins enough time to throw three second-half TD passes en route to the thrilling comeback. They should do a much better job of pass protecting and run blocking this week. Washington's defense has played well through two games, ranking second overall in the NFL in total defense; however, they have got to face 2 teams without their starting quarterbacks. They will get a real test from Collins and Giants.
Things are starting to come together for Washington in their second full season under Spurrier. The Redskins needed to throw the ball a lot last week to dig themselves out of a 17-0 first-half deficit, but Spurrier still managed to get his top two running backs, Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts, a combined total of 26 carries. The former Florida Gator has adjusted his offense to better suit the flow of NFL games, and it has paid off in the form of a surprising 2-0 start. Patrick Ramsey has found a groove at QB for Washington and has looked much better in Spurrier's offense this year.
The Redskins bubble is primed to burst here. Both victories were by very slim margins against teams missing many key players from last year. Now they'll be facing the best offense and the best defense of the year and will have their hands more than full. They are 0-6 ATS at home off a road win and an ugly 1-10 ATS as a favorite vs. division foes. We also have a couple of PRO INFO SPORTS Power Systems in support of the Giants in this game. Week 3 road dogs of less than 7 points off 2 home games are 12-2 ATS since 1992, beating the spread by 10 points a game, and road teams off a SU home overtime loss that followed a SU home win are 8-0 ATS. New York will have the "eye of the tiger" here and should win the game SU as a live dog.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NY GIANTS 24 WASHINGTON 20
6 STAR SELECTION (4.75% of Bankroll)
DETROIT +4 over Minnesota
Last year, the Minnesota Vikings didn't win their third game until week 11. Now they are tryingn to equal that amount of wins on Sunday when they travel to Motown to take on NFC North rival Detroit at Ford Field. Minnesota has actually ripped off five straight wins dating back to last season, including Sunday's 24-13 win over the Chicago Bears at the Metrodome. After an excellent start of his own, Steve Mariucci's reign in the Motor City hit a snag. The Detroit smiles quickly turned to frowns following a disappointing 31-6 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last week which came on the heels of their 42-24 opening day win over Arizona.
The Vikes' QB, Daunte Culpepper, performed very well for the second straight game last week, although he continues to have a problem holding on to the ball, as he had the ball slip out of his hands three times, losing one deep in enemy territory. Minnesota has abandoned the "Randy ratio" in not trying to force the ball into all-Pro wideout Randy Moss, in favor of a brutal ground game. They will looking grind out a win here over the Lions. Detroit, which has been constantly tweaking its secondary since the preseason due to injuries, actually played very well against the pass in Green Bay, but couldn't stop the run. The Motor City men will obviously be looking for a way to plug running holes this week with its undersized linebacking corps. Detroit does have some talent on the defensive line and should do a better job here at home.
Lions QB Joey Harrington is certainly progressing, although he continues to struggle on the road. He came back to earth against the Packers last week after a big game against Arizona. He plays much better at home and we look for him to return to form against Minnesota. He has an improving set receivers to throw to starting with exciting rookie Charles Rogers. The catch corps should get a big boost this week with the long-awaited return of wideout Az-Zahir Hakim. With not much of a ground game going right now, look for the Lions to use a 3-receiver set often to keep the Vikes "D" off balance. Minnesota's new-look secondary is making it tough for foes to throw the ball, although they are a bit dinged up right now. Former Lion linebacker Chris Claiborne, who left for the Twin Cities in the offseason, is the anchor of the Vikings' much-improved run defense. One area where the Vikings' defense has lacked is getting pressure on the quarterback, as it has just four sacks. If they can't put pressure on Harrington, Detroit's QB will find open receivers.
There's no question that Minnesota has looked strong after 2 wins. Sneaking up as a road underdog like they did in Green Bay is one thing, while going out and dominating a division opponent as a road favorite is something else. They will get their stiffest test yet going into the Lions' den. Marriucci really stressed taking care of business at home with his new team, and Detroit has responded, making Ford Field an even tougher venue for visiting teams. Minnesota is due for a letdown and may have a hard time matching the Lions intensity here. The Vikings are 1-7 ATS on the road off a SU victory, and 1-7-1 ATS as a road fave of 6 or less points, including 0-3 at Detroit.
Detroit will go all out here off their loss and with their upcoming schedule. In fact, the Lions are 7-0 ATS at home when they play on the road in each of the next 2 weeks, crushing the pointspread by 14 points a game. In looking at Minnesota, the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS on the road vs. such opponents in their last 5 tries. The Purple Purple Eaters are also 1-4 ATS on the road vs. division opponents that have a non-division road game the following week. The Lions, when hosting a division foe in such situations is an amazing 12-1 ATS. We also note that Detroit is 8-0 ATS as a home dog off scoring less than 13 points, beating the spread by 10 points a game. Finally, in the last 12+ years, the Lions have been made a division home dog 3 times off a division road loss, and have covered the spread each time. This should be a typical black-and-blue division knock-down-drag-out fight with Detroit pulling off the SU upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: DETROIT 27 MINNESOTA 24
5 STAR SELECTION (4.5% of Bankroll)
Pittsburgh -4 over CINCINNATI
The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for their first win when they take the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Bengals fought and clawed against the Raiders last week, but came up short, 23-20, at the Coliseum. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters off a tough 41-20 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers jumped ahead early but were outscored 27-3 in the final three quarters en route to the defeat.
Pittsburgh quarterback Tommy Maddox is off to another strong start as he enjoys perhaps the best collection of receivers in the league. The Steelers havd struggled with the running game, so expect them to try to establish the run early in this contest, loosening up the Cincinnati secondary for the pass. The Bengals rank 13th in the AFC in run defense and had trouble handling the Oakland running game last week.
Pittsburgh will get a big lift on the defensive side of the ball this week with the return of top linebacker Joey Porter. Porter, who is recovering from being shot in the thigh, led the team with 89 tackles, nine sacks and four interceptions last season and is clearly the leader of this defense. He'll look to help shore up the Steelers run defense that is near the bottom of the conference rankings after 2 games. Cincinnati's running game could be slowed a bit this week as Corey Dillon is hampered with a hyperextended knee.
Bengals quarterback Jon Kitna has been known to make crucial mistakes when under pressure. Kitna, who threw for 303 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, has been picked off four times in two weeks. It was Kitna who first exposed the Pittsburgh defensive secondary weakness a couple of years ago; however, the Steelers have improved their coverage this season and will be looking forward to facing Kitna here. Last week, for example, they limited Trent Green to just 125 yards and intercepted him twice. His passer rating was 62.7.
Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back in a big way here. They are an incredible 46-0 ATS in road games they win SU after playing a non division game. On the road vs. a divisional foe with a non-division opponent at home the following week, the Steelers are 8-0-2 ATS, including 3-0 vs. these Bengals, beating the spread by a hefty 15 points a game. In the reverse role, Cinci is an awful 0-8 SU/ATS, losing to the mark by an average of 11 points a game. Other numbers paint a frightening picture for the Bengals here. They are 0-5 ATS at home vs a divisional opponent after facing a non-divisional opponent on the road, losing to the spread by 13 points a game, while the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in the reverse role, 1-11 ATS vs. the division after two non-divisional opponents, while Pittsburgh is a commanding 14-1-2 ATS in opposing role. The Bengals were able to hold the ball on offense for a good amount of time against the Raiders but that doesn't bode well for the future. after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time, Cincinnati is 1-11 ATS and after a loss in which they had more than 30 minutes of possession time, they are a putrid 3-17 ATS. Incredibly, Cincinnati is 0-11 ATS as a September favorite or underdog of less than 7 points over the past 12 seasons. We also have a couple of PRO INFO SPORTS Power Systems in play here. The chart below shows how Sunday home teams have performed off a SU loss of 1-3 points as a double-digit underdog.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1989 PHO PHI H 5-17 +4' L L
1990 PHO CHI H 21-31 +7 L L
1990 CLE BUF H 0-42 +2' L L
1992 TB MIN H 7-35 +6 L L
1993 CIN CLE H 17-28 +4 L L
1993 TB WAS H 17-23 -3 L L
1993 NE CIN H 7-2 -6 W L
1994 HOU BUF H 7-15 -2' L L
1997 NYJ RAI H 23-22 -1' W L
1998 CAR MIA H 9-13 +3 L L
1999 CIN SD H 7-34 -1 L L
As shown, these teams have gone 0-11 ATS, losing to the spread by double digits. Note that the Bengals provided 2 of this sytems previous wins with home SU/ATS losses in 1993 and 1999. The next chart displays how home dogs of 3 points or more do after outrushing an opponent by 150+ yards when they next face a foe off a SU loss.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1992 ATL DAL H 17-41 +8' L L
1995 STL SF H 10-44 +3' L L
1995 STL MIA H 22-41 +6' L L
1996 PIT SF H 15-25 +3 L L
1998 CIN TB H 0-35 +6 L L
1999 CIN PIT H 3-17 +5 L L
2000 NO STL H 21-26 +3' L L
2001 KC PHI H 10-23 +3 L L
2002 WAS PHI H 7-37 +3 L L
Again, we note that Cincinnait qualified twice for this system, including a 1999 SU/ATS loss vs. the team they are facing today. These systems tell us that after such a strong performance that did not produce a win last week, Cincinnati will have a hard time coming up with a similar effort against a hungry Steelers team, as Pittsburgh should get the solid SU/ATS win here.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PITTBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 17
4 STAR SELECTION (4.25% of Bankroll)
CLEVELAND +7 over San Francisco
For the first time in their existence, the Cleveland Browns pay a visit to San Francisco to meet the 49ers. San Francisco has split its first two games after falling 27-24 in overtime to the St. Louis Rams at the Edward James Dome, while Cleveland is reeling with back-to-back losses to open the season for the first time since 1999.
Kelly Holcomb has posted a poor 49.4 quarterback rating in the first two contests for the Browns, which is surprising considering how well he played last year including the playoffs. He has faced 2 pretty good pass defenses but could have a breakout game here against a beleagured 49ers secondary. Expect the 49ers to do everything they can to get pressure on Holcomb this week so he won't have time to find his receivers, but the Browns offensive line has done a good job of protecting their signal caller. New 'Niners head coach Dennis Erickson has brought a very aggressive style with him, which translates into a defense that likes to blitz and make big plays. Big plays will also be available to the Browns if they can pick up the blitzes and Holcomb gets the ball to his receivers. San Francisco's defensive weakness is its secondary. Cleveland will likely try to take advantage of the 49ers' secondary with the receiving trio of Dennis Northcutt, Quincy Morgan and Kevin Johnson.
Cleveland's defense was dominated by Jamal Lewis and the Baltimore running game last week. Lewis torched the Browns' for an NFL-record 295 yards. The Browns' young linebacking corps, which had an excellent game against Indianapolis in week 1, couldn't find an answer for Lewis. The defense was obviously completely embarrassed by their performance and we look for them to respond with a much better performance here, although they will have their work cut out against the 49ers. The San Francisco offensive unit stumbled through the St. Louis game, as both QB Jeff Garcia and top wideout Terrell Owens suffered mild concussions in the first half. They actually had a chance to win in regulation after recovering an onside kick. Garcia found Cedrick Wilson for a 29-yard connection in field goal range, but the receiver failed to get out of bounds and time ran out on the offense. Cleveland has been solid against the pass this year and we look for that trend to continue as they frustrate the Garcia-to-Owens connection.
It was an extremely difficult loss for the 49ers to swallow, one that will likely linger. San Francisco has had a hard time getting over close losses the past few years. Since 1999, when coming off a lose of 3 points or less, the 49ers are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing to the spread by a mind-boggling 20 points a game! The Browns are 4-1 ATS facing teams off such a close defeat. We also have a PRO INFO SPORTS Power System in play here, as September non-division home favorites of less than 10 points off a SU dog loss vs. an opponent also off a SU dog loss are a nightmarish 2-19 ATS over the past 12+ seasons of NFL play. This trend has covered 12 straight games since 1995, with the home teams going just 1-11 SU. While we aren't expecting a Browns SU win here, they should give the 'Niners a battle to the end.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SAN FRANCISCO 24 CLEVELAND 20
3 STAR SELECTION (% of Bankroll)
Baltimore -1 over SAN DIEGO
Fresh off his record-setting performance in Week 2, running back Jamal Lewis leads the Ravens on a rare cross-country trip to San Diego for a game with the Chargers. Lewis set the NFL's single-game rushing record with 295 yards on 30 carries against Cleveland. For an encore he'll go against a young San Diego defense that has already been shredded on the ground by Kansas City's Priest Holmes and Denver's Clinton Portis. Lewis, who is averaging over 8 yards per carry, leads the NFL in rushing with 364 yards.
The Chargers' run defense, or lack of it, has been the main culprit in an 0-2 start. San Diego is 29th against the run, allowing 329 yards and yielding 5 yards per carry through two games. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer identified the Chargers' problem as poor play on the perimeter after Week 1. Changes were ineffective last week against Portis, who had 129 yards in the first half.
Chargers' coach Marty Schottenheimer knew there would be a learning curve when he blew up the defense and went with youth and speed to repair a unit responsible for a 2-6 finish last season. The Chargers will be challenged to keep lightning from striking again on the ground. The Ravens' line is big, experienced, and deep. The Ravens have been getting acclimated to the West Coast time zone as they left Baltimore for San Diego on Wednesday because of Hurricane Isabel. They are weathering a storm of their own at QB as rookie Kyle Boller struggled last week his second start. Boller, who won the job with strong play, poise and leadership in the preseason, showed some of those qualities again by not making excuses for his performance. He's a fast learner, and he should be fine with the Ravens rock solid running game and defense. Boller will be facing a secondary that is almost as inexperienced as he is. The Chargers will put eight men in the box, but against second-year man Quentin Jammer at one corner and rookie Sammy Davis at he other, Boller should fare better.
While growing pains on defense were to be expected, the performance of the offense has been disappointing, too. San Diego signed free agent receiver David Boston to a $47 million contract to give Drew Brees a deep threat and open things up for Pro Bowl RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Boston had two catches for 20 yards in Week 1 then announced he was not playing in Week 2 because of a heel injury before informing Schottenheimer of his status. During San Diego's 37-13 loss to Denver, Boston was seen taking on his cell phone in a Qualcomm Stadium tunnel instead of being with his teammates on the sideline, and then he left the locker room before Marty addressed the team following their last loss. Needless to say, there are some issues with this team.
Running on the Ravens is always tough, and that will be the challenge for LaDanlian Tomlinson here. He has carried only 29 times in two games because the Chargers have been blown out early. This game figures to be closer, but Ray Lewis and his fellow defenders will be there to make it a rough day for the Chargers offense. While Boston will likely play in this game, No. 2 WR Reche Caldwell is out. The No. 2 TE Josh Norman is also out and starter Stephen Alexander is doubtful. QB Drew Brees will be faced with the task of moving the ball with such an unsettled lineup against one of the best defenses in the league.
The Chargers are not only losing, but they are giving the impression of a team which is unraveling as well. Besides the Boston fiascos, reports came out this week that rookie middle linebacker Matt Wilhelm was arrested for drunk driving, which comes on the heels of last month's arrest of defensive tackle Leonardo Carson on kidnapping and burglary charges. There is speculation that Schottenheimer is losing control of this team. Schottenheimer, despite being the NFL's ninth all-time winningest coach, is two games under .500 with the Chargers, and has seen his squad lose nine of its last 11, dating to the 2002 free-fall it performed after streaking to a 6-1 start. It doesn't figure to get much better here as San Diego is 0-7 against non-divisional opponents between division games, and just 1-9 ATS off a SU division loss. When they lost by double digits in each of the past two weeks and were trailing by at least a TD at the half in both games, they are 0-8-1 ATS, losing to the spread by 10 points a game on average, while Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 SU vs. such foes since 1999.
The Ravens are 9-1 ATS vs. non-divisional AFC opponents, and are 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS when facing a team with no wins after week 2. These 2 teams have the look of going in opposite directions and that figures to continue in this game as well. It won't be easy, but we do like the Ravens to outlast San Diego and to come away with a hard-fought SU/ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALTIMORE 23 SAN DIEGO 20
2 STAR SELECTION (3.75% of Bankroll)
St. Louis +3.5 over SEATTLE
Footballs should be flying through the Seattle sky on Sunday when the Rams come to town to play the soaring Seahawks. The one time "Greatest Show on Turf" is matched up with the NFC West's current leader. Interestingly enought, the winning quarterbacks in the 1999 and 2000 Super Bowls will be on opposite sidelines during the game, but barring injury, that's exactly where they will stay. Trent Dilfer lost his starting job in Seattle to Matt Hasselbeck last season and Kurt Warner was replaced by Marc Bulger as the Rams' starter last week.
Bulger threw for 235 yards and two scores last week, but most importantly he did not turn the ball over and the Rams used more balance on offense. Martz also saw improvement in Bulger as the game went on, and ultimately that is why he decided to make the quarterback switch for the immediate future. After receiving just nine carries in Week 1, Marshall Faulk ran 18 times last week, and we look for his load to be further increased here as he should get 20+ touches. The Rams will certainly be tested by the Hawks and their new defensive coordinator, Ray Rhodes. Playing a pair of rookies in the secondary is usually a great cause for concern, hasn't hurt the Seahawks thus far. The DB's will receive a much stiffer test against the Rams' high-powered offense.
As one-sided as Seattle's victories have been, there is ample room for improvement on offense. Coming off of a 38-0 decking of the Cardinals where the game was put out of reach in the first quarter, it seems odd that the Seahawks have started slowly, but they have. It was the defense that salted away the Arizona game early. Hasselbeck closed last season as one of the hottest passers in he league, but has not thrown the ball nearly as consistently as he did in December. He has completed just 47 percent of his passes this season, although he does have 4 TD's.
After 2 easy wins, Seattle will find themselves in a battle royale here. St. Louis got a huge confidence boost off their home OT win over San Francisco and they simpler play better with Marc Bulger at QB at this point. Bulger has still yet to lose when playing the whole game for the Rams, and St. Louis is becoming battle tested. After hanging tough in New York against a good Giants team, despite SIX Warner fumbles, they found a way to beat another playoff team, the 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle hosted a New Orleans team that just didn't show up, then enjoyed a play day in the desert last week. This game will be much tougher than either of those and the 'Hawks could easily fall short here. The 'Hawks have stumbled in similar situations before, going just 3-11 ATS off a divisional SU/ATS victory. As a division home favorite off a division win, they are 0-6 ATS, losing to the spread by 12 points a game. The Rams, on the other hand, are a tremendous 11-0 SU/9-2 ATS vs. opponents off a SU division win, and in division games are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS on the road vs. teams off a SU division victory. In the last 12+ seasons, Seattle has come in as a home favorite off 2+ SU wins and faced an opponent off a SU win, and came up short each time, ATS, losing all 5 games by an average of 14 points against the number.
Finally, we have a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL Power System in play here as September Sunday home favorites of less than 4 points are 2-17 ATS after scoring 34+ points. Perhaps, even more incredibly, these teams are just 3-16 SU as the chart below shows.
season team opp site score line SU ATS
1989 PHI SF H 28-38 -1' L L
1989 NYJ IND H 10-17 -3 L L
1990 GB CHI H 13-31 -1' L L
1993 GB PHI H 17-20 -3' L L
1994 NE BUF H 35-38 -2 L L
1994 SEA SD H 10-24 -3' L L
1994 MIN MIA H 38-35 -3' W L
1994 RAI SD H 24-26 -3' L L
1996 HOU BAL H 29-13 -3' W W
1997 STL SF H 12-15 -1 L L
1998 STL ARZ H 17-20 -3' L L
1999 CIN SD H 7-34 -1 L L
1999 SD IND H 19-27 -1 L L
1999 STL SF H 42-20 -3 W W
2000 PHI NYG H 18-33 -3 L L
2000 RAI DEN H 24-33 -3 L L
2001 ATL CHI H 3-31 -3' L L
2002 ATL CHI H 13-14 -3 L L
In 1994, Seattle was in a situation quite like the one they find themselves in here. The 'Hawks started the season with huge wins over the Redskins (28-7) and Raiders (38-9) before coming home to host division rival San Diego. As shown above, the Chargers came in as 3.5 point dogs and simply won the game SU 24-10. While we're expecting a closer game than that outcome, we do like St. Louis to make a statement here with the SU/ATS upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ST. LOUIS 24 SEATTLE 23
1 STAR SELECTION (3.5% of Bankroll)
ARIZONA +8.5 over Green Bay
With their first win under their belts, the Green Bay Packers return to the field Sunday to face the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium. Green Bay responded to pre-game "pep" talk from QB Brett Favre and found a good rhythm against the Detroit Lions, pasting them 31-6 at newly renovated Lambeau Field. Arizona is still searching for its first win after falling 38-0 to the Seattle Seahawks at home last week.
The Green Bay offensive line can be given a lot of credit for Green's success against Detroit, as it manhandled the Lions' front seven. Ahman Green had a big day to carry the offense for the Packers. Brett Favre and the passing game took a back seat with a depleted receiver corps. Green Bay could still be a man short in the receiving corps this week, as top wideout Donald Driver is still recovering from a neck sprain. Favre is still searching for a breakout game in 2003, as he has posted a pair of mediocre performances. It's a good thing for Arizona that the Pack is unsettled at WR, as their secondary has struggled to keep foes' passing games under wraps.
Of course, when you don't score a point, it's hard to win a game, regardless of how well the defense plays. The Cards are coming off an atrocious offensive performance in which it was shutout for the first time since December 1, 2002. Things went south when veteran starting quarterback Jeff Blake injured his left heel in the game, opening the door for young Josh McCown to play. Blake guarantees he will play this week, and he'll be looking for his talented pair of rookie wide-outs. Bryant Johnson and Anquan Boldin have performed well and will be a good test for the Green Bay secondary.
Arizona is still looking at getting its running game going with Emmitt Smith carrying the ball behind a massive offensive line. The gameplan here will be to get the rush rolling and keep Favre and the Green Bay offense on the sidelines. While there's little chance of Arizona pulling off the SU upset win, we do expect them to be far more competitive here. Getting shut-out at home is the ultimate embarrassment and the veterans on this team should get the team to respond. We know that Emmitt Smith blistered the paint off the wall with a post-game "speech" delivered to his teammates after the loss to the Seahawks.
We would only consider playing the Cards here with a number of our systems supporting them and going against Green Bay, which is the case. Over the past decade of NFL play, September home dogs of more than 7 points off a SU/ATS loss are 11-1 ATS vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, September home dogs of 7+ points are 9-0 ATS vs. opponents that scored at least 26 points last week, non-division home dogs of 6+ points are 17-2 ATS after allowing 36+ points, non-Monday non-division home dogs of 7+ points before a divisional road game are 12-1-2 ATS, and non-division home dogs of 10 points or less are 9-1 ATS off a home shutout loss. Meanwhile, Green Bay is in a prime spot for a letdown as road favorites of more than 3 points before a Monday Night Football road game are 0-9 ATS since 1992, and non-division road teams off a SU win are 2-12 ATS before a MNF road contest.
While Green Bay is still a quality team, they are aging and simply can't give a performance like they did last week every time out. We note that the Pack has struggled as a road favorite, going just 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS last year, losing to the spread by 16 points a game on average. The week after allowing fewer than 10 points, they are 0-4 ATS the last 4 times, and are 0-6-1 ATS when facing a winless team after week 2 of the NFL season. Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the reverse role, including 3-0 at home. Finally, our research shows that Green Bay has faced 3 teams coming off a shutout loss since 1990, and lost 2 of the 3 SU, and all 3 ATS, while the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS off a shutout loss vs. non-division foes. Look for the Packers to come out flat, while Arizona should show a much better effort and at least keep this one respectable for the cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GREEN BAY 23 ARIZONA 20
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