Tweet
Players of America
We're +120 units this NCAA Bowl Season going 2-1 on 5* selections and 2-0 on 3* selections. Here is a FREE 1* selection!Saturday, December 29
LIBERTY BOWL (Bowl Game #13)
Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 (10 Units)
The Central Florida Knights are one of the most improved College Football programs in the entire Nation and several experts have even gone as far as saying that this school along with Florida Atlantic and USF are the main reasons for the demise of Miami Florida and Florida State. The Knights are CONFERENCE USA Champions after beating Tulsa in the championship game on December 1 and as impressive as that sounds, you would find it more impressive that this team went from 4-8 SU last season to 10-3 SU this season with the possibility of winning 11 games on the year. A bunch of pre-season magazines called for this be a good year for the Knights seeing how they were breaking in a new on-campus stadium (could this become another college football powerhouse?) and they were returning a bunch of top players from last season but getting to a Bowl Game was all these players cared about and winning 11 games was not on anyone's minds. Well here they are having accomplished everything there is to accomplish this season. The Knights went 8-5 ATS on the season and have an impressive 4-2 SU record when playing away from home this season. However, their 3-3 ATS mark in those road games has me wondering if we are going to see the best of them in this game. I mean it's nice that they blew the socks off UAB, SMU and Southern Miss on the road this season but their 64-12 road loss to South Florida and their 52-38 road loss to East Carolina both have me raising alarm flags. UCF comes into this game averaging 33.8 points per game away from home this season and they managed to also average 385.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.4 yards per play. The Bulldogs defense has allowed a bunch of points away from home this season playing in the very tough SEC but despite allowing 27.7 points per game in their away games, they still managed to allow only 343.7 total yards of offense per game away from home on 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Central Florida has one of the top RB's in the Nation in Kevin Smith who now has a crazy 2448 rushing yards on the year with 29 rushing touchdowns which is pretty much unheard of if you ask me. The Knights have averaged 222.0 rushing yards per game away from home this season for 5.0 yards per carry but their opposition has been rather weak and I don't trust them. Mississippi State has seen the best of the best in terms of RB's (against LSU and Arkansas for example) and they have done a respectable job on the road allowing 156.7 rushing yards per away game on 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Kyle Israel had a pretty damn good season as he completed 56.0% of his passes on the road this year for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 163.0 passing yards per game. He is going up against a Mississippi State defense that has allowed road opponents (don't forget all the SEC powerhouses included in that group) to complete only 58.3% of their passes this season for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt which is pretty damn good. Kyle Israel has thrown 6 of his 8 interceptions on the road this season and I think he is going to have problems in this game seeing how the Bulldogs have 9 interceptions in six road games this season and they take a lot of chances that payoff on defense. Central Florida is not exactly a reliable team when it comes to turnovers as they have fumbled 11 times away from home this season and lost 5 of those fumbles while Mississippi State's defense has forced 11 fumbles on the road this season and recovered 7 of those fumbles. That leads me to believe that they have a hungry defense that is going to make some big game changing plays in this game. What you have to watch out for with Central Florida is their ability to take early leads and run away with games as they average 22.6 first half points per road game this season and that has to end here. I think Mississippi State is here to make a statement on behalf of the SEC defense troops and they should get the job done when the game is on the line.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs were 2-10 in 2003 and that was the year that Sylvester Croom was hired as head coach to make his debut in 2004. When coach Croom headed out into SEC Country to try and convince local high school stars to join a program that had won only 8 games the three seasons prior to his arrival, he got nothing but laughs and rejections from recruits who did not want to play for a losing program. Croom had to come up with some of kind of promise to lure some of these kids to Mississippi State so what he did was promise every single one of the recruits that were potentially going to sign for him, that by the time they were done playing at Mississippi State, they were going to contend for an SEC Title and play in an SEC Title game. That of course was not realistic and that did not happen but he also promised them a Bowl Game (Bulldogs have not been to a Bowl Game since the 2000 Independence Bowl). This is his fourth year coaching at Mississippi State and BAM! goal has been accomplished but it did not come easy. The Bulldogs were 4-4 SU heading into a road game against Kentucky and that's when the Seniors on this team took charge. They won that game 31-14, followed that up with a win over Alabama at home and finished off their season with a 17-14 over Ole Miss to finish at 7-5 on the season and reach a Bowl Game for Croom. The Bulldogs were only 3-3 SU on the road this season but 4-2 ATS in those games and I love them as an underdog in this game. Mississippi State comes into this game averaging 25.5 points per road game this season and they managed to do that on 337.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. However there is hope for this offense as Central Florida allowed a whopping 34.5 points per game away from home this season and that just won't cut it in a game like this. They also allowed 386.7 total yards of offense per away game on 5.2 yards per play so this Bulldogs offense has something to work with. We all know Mississippi State's running attack is not all that good as they average 150.5 rushing yards per road game this season on 3.5 yards per carry but I give guys like RB Anthony Dixon a chance in this game as Central Florida has allowed 163.0 rushing yards per game on the road this season on 4.2 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Wesley Carroll is the man right now and he has completed 53.2% of his passes this season for 1353 passing yards, 5.7 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions which is not good but not that bad either. Central Florida has allowed their opponents on the road to complete 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs big problem on the road this season has been turnovers as they have thrown way too many interceptions and have fumbled way too many times. Despite their 14 fumbles (7 lost) in six road games this season, Central Florida is actually not as aggressive as some of you think seeing how they have recovered only 2 fumbles in six away games this season and unless you can take away the ball just as fast as you can play the ball, you aren't going to win many games like this one. The key to this game for Mississippi State is to slow things down on offense, make sure the running game is used as much as they possibly can because I don't know if you have noticed but in their road wins over Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn, the Bulldogs kept all three opponents to 14 points or less and I actually see that happening again in this game if they can control the tempo. This one is from Croom to his players.
WTF! Since when do you guys all jump on a CONFERENCE USA team to so easily beat an SEC team that won the right to play in this game? I don't understand where this love for UCF is coming from in this game. On one side you have a team that could be a bit overconfident coming off the best regular season in the school's short football history and on the other hand you have a very respectable head coach who made a promise to his Seniors four years ago and who comes into this game looking to keep that promise and put some icing on the cake with a win. Sylvester Croom and his boys did not make it to this game so they could lose to a CUSA Conference team and both you and me know that it ain't gonna happen. What I also want to know is how you can bet against a team that beat Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn on the road this season? Now how many teams, let alone SEC or CUSA teams can say they have done that before? Because that is exactly what Croom and his guys did this season and you have to be impressed. As good as UCF has been at times this season, they are terrible in non-conference play having covered only 9 of their last 34 games when playing a non-conference opponent. Mississippi State has been one of the best short range dogs to bet on in college football the last few seasons covering 9 of 12 games as a dog of 3 to 10 points. I like the Bulldogs to win this one for Croom and the Seniors.
Trend of the Game: Central Florida is 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 non-conference games.
Mississippi State 31, Central Florida 14
Comment