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We're now 3-1 on 5* selections this bowl season and 4-0 on 3* selections. We swept the board yesterday with the following card!
-------Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
ARMED FORCES BOWL (Bowl #16)
California Golden Bears -4 (30 Units)
The Air Force Falcons are coming off one hell of a season. Nobody expected them to do as well as they did in their first Deberry Fisherless season but this group got things together and finished with a 9-3 SU record on the year. Had it not been for unfortunate losses to New Mexico and Navy or a blowout loss to BYU earlier in the season, we would be talking about Air Force as MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONS but that's not the case and I don't know that this team is all that excited to be in this game. I guess you could call Air Force one of the hottest teams in the Nation heading into this game as they are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and they have made me some serious cash on that run. However, the level of opposition in those games was nothing like it is going to be in this game today and I don't know that Air Force is prepared to face a bigger conference school like Cal. I say that because despite pounding the crap out of Notre Dame (which everyone did anyways this year), Air Force's toughest opponent was probably BYU and they lost to them 31-6 on the road earlier this year. It's tough to go against a team that was 9-2 ATS on the season but despite also going 4-2 ATS in road game this season, Air Force lost all three games away from home and that could make a huge difference here. The Falcons come into this game averaging 27.2 points per game this season away from home which is damn good and somehow they managed to also average 376.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play in those games. California's defense has struggled away from home this season allowing 28.3 points per game and in those games they have also allowed 411.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, we all know how much Air Force likes to run as they average 54.7 carries per game on the road this season and those carries have amounted to 264.3 rushing yards per away game on 4.8 yards per carry. Cal's run defense is well tested this season as they have faced run based offenses all year on the road and allowed 191.3 rushing yards per game on only 4.2 yards per carry so believe me when I say they are used to it. In the air, QB Shaun Carney has completed 61.9% of his passes this season on the road for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. I think Cal's defense could be in some kind of trouble in this game seeing how road opponents have completed 63.4% of their passes against them for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Golden Bears have 12 sacjs in six road games this season which is decent but if they are going to make some noise in this game, they really have to find a way to get to Carney. What is encouraging here is that unlike Navy, Air Force turns the ball over a lot and they have issues with holding onto the football. They have fumbled 15 times in six road games this season, losing 10 of those fumbles along the way which is as a bad news as it gets for the Falcons because the Golden Bears have forced 10 fumbles in six road games and managed to recover 7 of them. The Golden Bears defense has struggled early on in games but I have a feeling that they are going to make some strides in this game. Air Force has been an ATS force to be reckoned with but that seems to be coming to an end and I have decided to move on. For the first time this season, I think the Falcons have some problems getting things going offensively and the Cal defense is going to prove to be too big and too strong for these guys who have gotten a little bit too comfortable for my liking.
The California Golden Bears are one of the teams that just barely/somehow made it into a Bowl Game as they have a 6-6 SU record on the year and could have easily been overlooked had this Bowl Game not been in bad need of a Big School name to fill the void against Air Force. I don't know what the leve of interest is on this Cal team but something tells me that it's a big embarassing to be playing in this game so we can probably expect an all out effort from a team that does not want to finish the season with a losing record. I don't think there is a single team in a Bowl Game this season that had more of a freefall than the California Golden Bears did as they went 1-6 SU in their last seven games of the regular season and a big fat 0-7 ATS in those games. The Golden Bears have not won since their 20-17 win over Washington State at home back on November the 3rd and during their terrible string of games, have lost to Stanford, Washington, USC, Arizona State, UCLA and Oregon State...which when you think about it is nothing to really be ashamed of anyways. The Golden Bears went only 2-4 SU away from home this season with wins over Oregon and Colorado State and unfortunately they managed to cover only one game on the ATS front away from home this season. However, I think this is a changed team and we should see some new things today. The Golden Bears come into this game averaging 23.7 points per game on the road this season and in those games they managed to also average 367.8 total yards of offense per game for 5.7 yards per play which could get them going early in this game here. Air Force is led by one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in all of college football as they have allowed only 25.5 points per game on the road this season and in those games have allowed 359.2 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play which is pretty damn good. On the ground, Califonia is averaging 132.5 rushing yards per road game on 4.7 yards per carry and that could be a real problem for Air Force if RB's Justin Forsett and Jahvid Best get their game going. Air Force has allowed 162.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 3.7 yards per carry in those game so although they are used to the running, I don't know that they have seen speed like the Golden Bears speed in this game. In the air, QB Nate Longshore completed 59.4% of his passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt which is not that bad but he is going to have to work hard in this game as the Falcons defense has allowed their road opponent QB's to complete only 57.4% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Longshore has made a lot of bad decisions this season having thrown 16 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions so the running game is the way to go in this game because Air Force has 8 interceptions in six road games and it's just not worth it letting Longshore run the show by himself and risk more mistakes like those ones. Air Force is aggressive on defense but again I think they are going to have problems with the speed of California and seeing how they have recovered only 4 fumbles in six road games this season, I would say it's going to be hard for Air Force to win a game where they can't force turnovers like they are used to doing. California has lost only four fumbles of their own on the road this season. I know it's tough betting on a team that has lacked consistancy all season long on both offense and defense but like I said before, I think the PAC 10 speed is going to be more than Air Force can handle or has seen all season since they didn't play any big name non-conference opponents. I am going with California to get things going early on offense in this game.
I don't know what to think about the public action in this game. Most of the public bettors are on California the team that is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games, while the sharps seem to be on Air Force in this game, the team that is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. Something about this line doesn't make much sense and I don't think I could ever back a Mountain West non-champion team over a school from the PAC 10 that has had time off to recovered from their crappy season. The Falcons last played a game on November 17 and that makes it almost a month and half since they have touched a football field and played a real game. Seeing how they had all that momentum at the time and how nobody could beat them, im pretty sure that momentum is now gone and the time off can't be good at all. The same can't be said for California who have played a game in the month of December and despite losing that game, have only been off for a about three weeks and I don't think they are going to have as many problems getting things going in this game. Don't be fooled by the ATS records in this game because based on that, Cal would get killed in this spot. California is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus teams from the Mountain West Conference and they have sucked in non-conference games covering the sprea in only 3 of their last 12. Despite all the knocks on this team, I am going with the Golden Bears
Trend of the Game: California is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
California 25, Air Force 6
Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
HUMANITARIAN BOWL (Bowl #17)
Fresno State Bulldogs +6 (10 Units)
Fresno State 31, Georgia Tech 28
Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
SUN BOWL (Bowl #18)
Oregon Ducks +6 (10 Units)
The Oregon Ducks have hit the very highs of college football this season and they have hit the very lows of college football this season. Now that both have come and gone, I think this team can get back to business and get back to playing Oregon Ducks football despite the injuries and despite not being where they wanted to be when this all started. Lets get a few things straight before we go deeper into this thing. QB Dennis Dixon is not playing in this Bowl Game, QB Brady Leaf is not playing in this Bowl Game and the starter for the Ducks is going to be the freshamn out of Georgia QB Justin Roper who only has 30 career pass attempts under his belt. However, I think Oregon has a core base of very solid players that can definitely pickup the slack for the kid in this game and now that he has one start under his belt (a close overtime loss to Oregon State), I don't see why he would be nervous for more than a few minutes in this game. The Ducks were supposed to play for the BCS National Title and they were supposed to win the PAC 10 CONFERENCE but when Dixon went down, so did this team and they never recovered in time to finish out the year strong. The Ducks finished the season with three straight losses but that doesn't mean they are not a good team. They were 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS prior to Dixon getting hurt and they have since lost to UCLA and Arizona State on the road but I dont blame them for those losses. The Ducks come into this game averaging 34.6 points per road game this season and despite struggling in their last two without Dennis Dixon, they have still managed to average 497.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games away from home. South Florida's defense is pretty damn good but they have allowed 24.2 points per away game this season and in those games they have allowed 356.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play which is not bad at all. On the ground, RB Johnathan Stewart is the key to this game as the Ducks are going to need all of his 1469 rushing yards on the year and all of his 10 rushing touchdowns. The Ducks come into this game averaging 259.8 rushing yards per away game this season and although Dennis Dixon is not here and they won't those numbers in this game, the 5.4 yards per carry is still impressive and the Ducks can do some damage. South Florida has allowed only 119.3 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.4 yards per carry so Stewart really has his work cutout for him. In the air, QB Justin Roper has completed 50.0% of his 30 career pass attempts for 162 passing yards, 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions which tells me that the coaching staff trusts this kid and they are not afraid to throw the ball around. Roper is going to have to keep his composure in this one because South Florida pass defense is outstanding and they have allowed their road opponents to complete only 50.9% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Ducks offensive line has had a few problems protecting their QBs away from home this season allowing 13 sacks in five away games so Roper is going to have to work fast in the pocket because South Florida averages 2.0 sacks per away game this season. The Bulls also have 9 interceptions in six games away from home so I have a feeling Roper is going to be limited with where and how much he can pass in this game but the Oregon coaching staff is not shy and they might let this kid showcase his stuff in front of a National audience. South Florida is very dangerous on the defensive end of things which is why the fact that Oregon fumbles a lot is a bit concernig. Having said that, the Ducks are still a much better football team that the seven points they are getting in this game and I don't see how a team can go from BCS Title contenders three weeks before the end of the season to seven point underdogs in a Bowl Game like this one. It just doesn't make sense to me and I refuse to believe that Dennis Dixon alone is worth those seven points because had he been playing in this game, we all know the Ducks would be favored.
The South Florida Bulls had it all at some point this season and although most of that is gone now because of some unfortunate losses, it's hard not to like or respect what this team has done on the year. As the #2 team in the Nation sometime mid-October, the Bulls fell flat on their faces on National Television when playing at Rutgers and ended up losing the game 30-27 which pretty much ended all hopes of playing for the Title Game. However, with other teams dropping games left and right, the Bulls still had high hopes heading into the next week but another loss, this time 22-15 to Connecticut, ended all hopes and the final nail in the coffin was inserted the following week in 38-33 loss to Cincinnati. So I think it's fair to say that much like Oregon, South Florida wishes they were in a much better Bowl Game than this slobberknocker in El Paso, Texas but there is nothing they can do but play this thing out. Unlike Oregon who accepted defeat when their start QB went down, the Bulls are definitely disappointed at being left out of bigger Bowl Games and that could show in this game today. South Florida was 4-2 SU on the road this season and 2-3 ATS in those games. Despite their impressive wins over Auburn and Pittsburgh (season finale), I don't trust this team on National TV in big games like this. The Bulls come into this game averaging 32.0 points per game away from home this season and they managed to do that on 413.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Oregon's defense has had its ups and downs this season much like the rest of the team and they have allowed 24.4 points per away game on the season. In those games they have allowed 346.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.8 yards per play which means they have the guys to make some stops and I expect the defense to come up big at times in this game. On the ground, South Florida is averaging 223.7 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.8 yards per carry but much like their own run defense, Oregon is pretty damn good against the run and they have allowed only 132.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 3.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matt Grothe has been good this season but not as good as many expected him to be. He has completed 61.2% of his passes on the road this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt but I think he is going to run into some problems against this Oregon defense. The Ducks have allowed their road opponent QB's to complete only 46.8% of their passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Bulls offensive line has allowed 17 sacks in only six away games and that spells big time trouble for Grothe because the Ducks have 15 sacks in only five away games and there is no doubt they are going to come after him hard in this one. With 6 interceptions in their five away games, the Ducks can afford to take some chances here with the pressure coming hard Grothe. It is really worth mentioning that South Florida is one of the most penalized teams in the Country and that has cost them some games SU and ATS this season. The Bulls average a crazy 9.8 penalties per away game this season and those penalties have cost them 81.8 penalty yards per game. The Ducks can be a frustrating team to play against and like I said before, with all that this team has been through, it's about time the defense steps things up and helps out the guys on the other side of the ball. The Bulls don't fumble much and they have not had that problem at all this season but if Oregon is going to win this game, I expect them to be really aggressive like they were earlier this season. Most of their success also revolves on the offense and their progress as this game moves along but since I see the Ducks scoring some points, I don't see why their defense would have any excuses this time around.
This is the battle of two former #2 teams who both went down in the flurry of #2 team massacres. If you had asked me about a month and a half ago or less if either of these teams would be playing in a pre-New Years Bowl Game I would have laughed in your face and told you to take a hike. However, things happen, people get hurt and teams lose games they should not lose so here we are and this should be one hell of a football games. The public is pounding away on South Florida in this game but I am not so sure that Oregon is not about to rear their good side one last time this season. The obvious pick in this game, for many reasons is South Florida, but as is the case many times in Bowl Games like this, the obvious does not happen and people end up getting burned on their picks. Too many people thought too much of Central Florida against a weak Mississippi State team and look what happened. Same can be said about UCLA against BYU when everyone was on BYU thinking UCLA can't keep up with these guys since they have so many injuries and so on. Oregon has been absolute CASH MONEY in Bowl Games where they are underdogs since they are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games as an underdog. South Florida's recent success has been against teams with losing records and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with winning records so expect a letdown in this game. WHAT A BOGUS LINE and the public took the bait.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on Turf.
Oregon 29, South Florida 21
Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
MUSIC CITY BOWL (Bowl #19)
Florida State Seminoles +7.5 (10 Units)
The Florida State Seminoles come into the Music City without a bunch of their players (15 officially listed) who have been suspended for an academic scandal. As if this season had not been bad enough already, Bobby Bowden has to go through more crap from the guys he recruited and the guys he trusted. However, my take on this game is that the scandal could quite possibly bring the team a lot closer than it has been all season as all the big names on both offense and defense are still playing in this game and team unity is probably at an all-time high for the guys who did not cheat and who were not involved in this garbage. From a football perspective yes its a problem to be missing so many guys from the depth chart but everyone is replaceable on this team and like I said before, weeding out the bad weeds does nothing more than improve your garden in the end. It is what it is and the remaining Noles players are hear to make some noise and win this game for the ACC. Now I know the Noles lost two of their last three games of the regular season but there is no shame in losing to Florida and Virginia Tech and besides they were coming off wins over Maryland and Boston College. The Noles are 2-4 SU away from home this season with wins over Boston College and Colorado (both Bowl bound teams) and the Noles also went 2-4 ATS in those games. Florida State comes into this game averaging only 19.2 points per game away from home this season and they did that on 302.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play which is not all that impressive. However, Kentucky's defense couldn't stop teams playing with a beach ball if their lives depended on it and they have allowed 27.8 points per game away from home this season by also allowing 388.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Noles have really struggled to get anything going all season as they average only 92.0 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.2 yards per carry but things could change today as Kentucky's run defense is atrocious and they have allowed 211.8 rushing yards per away game this season on 4.6 yards per carry. RB Preston Parker has been on fire the last month of the season averaging 10.5 yards per carry in his last five games so expect to see him get the ball a lot in this one. In the air, QB Drew Weatherford and company have completed 51.6% of their passes away from home this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Kentucky's pass defense is actually pretty solid as they have allowed their road opponents to complete 54.4% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt so Weatheford would be wise to run things on the ground in this one. Despite all their problems on offense, the Noles have done a good job of avoiding sacks on the road (only 11 sacks in six road games), avoding interceptions on the road (only 5 in six road games) and avoiding fumbles on the road (only 5 lost fumbles in six road games). That's not good news for this Kentucky defense because their only success comes when they force turnovers as they have 17 sacks in six road games this season, 6 interceptions in six road games and have forced 17 fumbles in six road games (recovering 8 of them). So as much as the Seminoles have struggled against ACC defenses all season, the Kentucky defense is nothing like most of those teams and I think Florida State is going to find it rather easy to get things going in this game. Florida State should have success on offense and I call them to pull off the upset in the Music City.
The Kentucky Wildcats really deserve to be in this game and they really deserve some respect but they actually don't deserve to be favored by this many points over any team with a winning record, suspensions or no suspensions. I know they did quite well in the SEC this season finishing with a 7-5 SU overall record and going 6-5 ATS in those games but when was the last time you saw this team hold their opponent to less than 20 points? You have to go all the way back to their 45-17 win over Florida Atlantic back on September 29 and the main reason this team went 2-5 SU to finish the season is because they allowed 30+ yards in almost every one of those games. You cannot possibly win games when you allow this many points. Several experts called for Kentucky to have a losing season after all their success in 2006 but the Wildcats proved them all wrong early but made them look a bit smarter as the season went along. Kentucky only played four games away from home this season and they went 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in those games. Apart from their blowout win over Arkansas earlier in the year, I was not impressed with their losses at Georgia and at South Carolina nor was I impressed with their win over Vanderbilt. I think this Kentucky team is badly overrated and please do not shy away from fading them at such a price. The only two times these guys were favored by 10+ this season was against Kent State and Florida Atlantic and im telling you right now that Florida State is a lot better than both those teams. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 26.2 points per away game this season and they managed to do that by also averaging 366.8 total yards of offense per game on only 5.1 yards per play in those away games. Florida State's defense has struggled a bit on the road this season allowing 26.0 points per game and allowing 396.8 total yards of offense in those games on 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, Kentucky has been a force at home but on the road they have rushed for only 121.3 rushing yards per away game on 3.5 yards per carry and that doesn't bode well against a Florida State defense that has allowed 135.8 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. That means QB Andre Woodson, who was being considered for the Heisman Trophy all season until this team started losing games, has to do the brunt of the work in this one. Woodson has completed 56.7% of his passes in away games this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt but things have not been all that smotth. Florida State has allowed their road opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes on the road this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt which is a lot and which will probably tempt Woodson to go deep more often than not. The only problem there is that Woodson has been sacked 12 times in only four away games and if the Noles can get some penetration at the line, they are going to be all over him in this game and they will probably force some mistakes. Florida State has 8 interceptions in six road games so they are aggressive and they like to come up with big plays. Unlike the Noles, Kentucky loves to give away the football via the fumble as they have fumbled 11 times in only four away games this season, losing 7 of those fumbles. I know Florida State is missing a bunch of guys on defense in this game but you can expect the backups and the younger guys to come out even harder competing for spots that could very well be open on a permanent basis now that some guys might be kicked off the team. The Noles come up big when it counts in this one, you can bank on that!
I am so sick of hearing about all the suspensions on this Florida State team. I know it makes most people want to pound away on the Kentucky Wildcats because of a) the location of this game, b) the fact that FSU is going to be missing almost 30 players for his game and c) because some people got a short line and think this is easy cash money, short line or big line. NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS! Since when was anything in college football a gimme? Kentucky has been horrendous since their great start and the only reason they are in a Bowl Game to begin with is because of that start and some lucky wins early in the season. They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games and their two wins came against Vanderbilt and that magical/fluke win over LSU on October 13. Other than that, this is a great chance for Florida State's younger players who haven't played much this season to jump into the action and play for keeps. There is still a lot of talent on this team and who knows, maybe the suspensions are going to bring out the best in the Noles. It is worth noting that Florida State always plays well under Bowden on neutral fields as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games under Bowden. Florida State is the kind of team you only bet on when they are underdogs seeing how they have covered 6 of their last 8 as dogs and don't cash when favored. I am calling for another upset win here as the NOLES shock the world and take this to the BANK!
Trend of the Game: Florida State is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games
Florida State 26, Kentucky 21
Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
INSIGHT.COM BOWL (Bowl #20)
Oklahoma State Cowboys -4.5 (30 Units)
The Indiana Hoosiers finally did. They finally made it to a Bowl Game and I have no idea how many people are heading out to Tempe for this game but I heard its a pretty damn big amount. This is Indiana's first Bowl Game since 1993 but maybe things are just not meant to be. I say that because the team was supposed to take a short flight to Tempe on Thursday, get to the team hotel, have some good, checkout the city, relax and get ready for the week leading up to the game. However, after boarding a plane to Tempe, the plane sat on the runway for 4 hours before the players were letoff and send back to Memorial Stadium. All in all, it took them 13 hours to finally arrive in Tempe and like I said, that could be some kind of bad omen where things are just not meant to be. Nonetheless, the buzz around this team right now is huge and everyone is excited which could also mean that they come out of the gates a bit slow and give up a lead they can never cut into. Indiana is only 2-3 SU away from home this season and in those games they went 2-3 ATS as well. Their only two wins away from home came against Iowa and Western Michigan, two teams who are nowhere to be found this Bowl Season. The Hoosiers are the kind of team that pretty much only plays well at home and can't be good teams on the road and that won't get you far in Bowl Games. Indiana comes into this game averaging 26.6 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by also averaging 317.2 total yards of offense per game and only 5.1 yards per play which is really nothing special for a bowl bound team. Oklahoma State's defense has been easy to beat pretty much all season as they have allowed 29.5 points per game on the road this season and in those games have allowed 406.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, Indiana has been weak away from home as they average only 111.0 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry in those games. Oklahoma State's run defense has been pretty good away from home as they have allowed 177.0 rushing yards per game, have been run on a bunch of times per game but have still allowed only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Kellen Lewis has been outstanding this season and has completed 59.6% of his passes on the road for 206.2 passing yards per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Lewis should have some success throwing the ball in this game as the Cowboys defense has allowed road opponents to complete 68.6% of their passes this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and they have been vulnerable to QB's like Lewis who can really toss the football. Having said that, the offensive line is not that good when it comes to pass protection and I think Oklahoma State can generate enough heat off the line to move Lewis out of the pocket, force him into bad decisions or force him to run around in Linebacker land. The Cowboys are averaging at least one interception per every road game this season which is good news because Lewis has thrown at least one interception in every away game this season. The Cowboys are not known for being an aggressive defense as they have recovered something like only 1 or 2 fumbles all season away from home but Indiana has so many issues with holding onto the ball as they have fumbled 14 times in five road games this season and lost 7 of those fumbles. I don't know what to expect from a team that has only two road wins all season against two non Bowl bound teams but one thing is for sure. If this turns into a shootout, the Hoosiers have somewhat of a chance but if it turns into a punch for punch battle, they don't stand a chance. Oklahoma State doesn't really care about stopping other teams, they just care about scoring as many as they can and being tricky on both offense and defense. Indiana is happy to be here but they will be overwhelmed and they don't have enough Bowl Game experience to win.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are not a team I generally like to bet on in the regular season because their style is out of control, they love to score score score but they often forget the basics of playing defense. Like the Hoosiers, Oklahoma State finished the season with a 7-5 SU record but their ATS mark was only 5-6 on the year and if you bet on them more than once this season, chances are you lost some money. I know the Cowboys are not an enticing wager because they did lose three of their last four games this season but those losses were to two BCS bound teams Oklahoma and Kansas and the other was against the surging Texas Longhorns. The Cowboys have not been much better than Indiana on the road this season as they are only 2-4 SU away from home but they did a bit better betting wise going 3-3 ATS in those games. Their two road wins this season came against Baylor in a blowout and Nebraska in a blowouw (once again two teams nowhere near the Bowl season) but that doesn't concern me because the Cowboys have scored 35+ points in seven games this season and as long as they can put points up on the board, they should have no problems beating this team from the mid BIG TEN CONFERENCE. Much like some other schools in Bowl Games, Oklahoma State has some suspended players to deal with heading into this game but again they are all non-impact players and the Cowboys have their core guys part of this game. Oklahoma State is averaging 27.8 points per game on the road this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging a whopping 425.3 total yards of offense per game this season and 6.2 yards per play in those games. That's a full 100 yards more of offense per game on the road than Indiana and I don't see how the Hoosiers can keep up. Indiana's defense has allowed a whopping 32.6 points per game away from home this season and in those games they have been lit up for a crazy 449.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Cowboys average 42.3 carries per road game this season and they average a whopping 227.7 rushing yards per away game on 5.4 yards per carry. This is one of the most powerful running attacks in the Nation with 3-4 guys who can tear you apart on the ground and they get to face an Indiana defense that has allowed 192.4 rushing yards per away game this season on 4.1 yards per carry...which means they are in big time trouble. I mean the Cowboys could run all day and win this in a blowout. In the air, QB Zac Robinson has completed 56.0% of his passes on the road this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt which means that with such a good running attack, going deep is always a possibility on play action. Indiana's defense has allowed road opponents to complete 64.4% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt which also means that the Cowboys are going to have some success throwing the ball. This game could get ugly in a big time hurry and I suggest pounding away on the short line. The Hoosiers have been sack machines on the road this season with 4.4 sacks per away game they have played but Oklahoma State's offensive line is outstanding and they have allowed only 1.3 sacks per away game this season so the Hoosiers wont get much pressure on Robinson and company. That pressure usually generates interceptions for the Hoosiers who have 7 interceptions in five away games but Zac Robinson has thrown only 7 interceptions all season long and the Cowboys don't seem to have problems with turnovers. Penalties has been an issue with Oklahoma State when they have played road games but they are no worse than Indiana in this spot and I don't think it's going to be a huge factor. What I do know is that Oklahoma State's running attack combined with their ability to throw deep is going to be way too much for one of the worst defenses playing in a Bowl Game this season so I think the Cowboys are going to win this in a blowout of sorts.
This play is only scary because so many public squares like it a lot and have pounded around with the line (yet its moving the wrong way). Having said that, I am taking the Cowboys here based on pure talent, bowl experience and ability to win in this matchup so that's all that should matter. Indiana is coming to a Bowl Game for the first time in about 14 years so the buzz around there is crazy and I think they are just content with making it to the Bowl Game. Sure winning would be nice but with all the problems they had making it to Tempe in the first place, destiny might not be calling their names today. Oklahoma State is just too strong both on the ground and in the air while the Hoosiers are a good passing team but they don't have the ground game to balance things out and it won't take long for Oklahoma State to make some adjustments on the defensive side of things. Most teams that shoot things out with Oklahoma State end up on the losing side of things but seeing how Indiana has no ground game to speak of, I don't know how they would control the clock and keep this at their own pace. Indiana has not been a good underdog wager the last three or four seasons and I don't expect them to be cashing any tickets tonight. I will call for a shootout of sorts and a huge win by Oklahoma State.
Trend of the Game: Indiana is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
Oklahoma State 38, Indiana 20
Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (Bowl #21)
Auburn Tigers +3 (50 Units)
***NEW YEARS COUNTDOWN PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Auburn Tigers are the one team that made me the most money this season and I am ending the 2007 year with a bang by once again pounding on what I think is a bogus line for this game. Let's talk business right now and you tell me who Auburn has not been able to beat this season? Sure the Tigers were underrated when the season began and sure they strugged out of the gates but apart from a few teams in this Country, nobody is beating the Auburn Tigers this season. Tommy Tubberville and his boys opened the season with a 10 point win over Kent State but followed that up with two very disappointing losses to South Florida and to Mississippi State. With those two losses behind them, the Tigers went on a tear of sorts winning four straight games and finishing the season on a 7-2 SU run, where they also went 6-2 ATS in those games. How many teams in the Country can say that they beat Florida in the swamp this season? How many teams beat LSU or came within one ore two plays the other way of beating them? Who beat both Alabama and Arkansas in the same season? This team is the real deal and their 2-2 SU away record doesnt tell the story as they actually went 3-1 ATS in those games. Auburn comes into this game averaging 24.0 points per game in their last three games of the season and in those games they managed to also average 290.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play which is among the weakest offenses in all the Bowl Bound teams this season. However, Clemson's defense has been dominant all season and they have allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games but in those games they allowed 342.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play which should let Auburn do some scoring of their own. On the ground, the Tigers have not had the rushing attack they hoped they would when the seasons started despite their top three rushers all averaging 4.0 yards per carry or more and combining for 1600+ yards on the season and 15 rushing touchdowns. The Tigers average only 121.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games this season on 3.2 yards per carry. Clemson's run defense has been solid all season and they have allowed only 74.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and those opponents have managed only 2.4 yards per carry along the way. That means QB Brandon Cox is going to have to take matters into his own hands. Cox has completed only 50.6% of his passes the last three games for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is probably the worst stretch of his season. However, I do like that he has had time off to get away from that funk and I expect the real Brandon Cox to be back in time for this game. Clemson pass defense has been horrendous to say the least the last three games of the season as their opponents completed 73.5% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and I don't see why Cox wouldn't have an easy time picking this secondary apart. Sure they have 10 sacks in their last three games and yes they do take risks and bring a lot of pressure but Auburn's offensive has allowed only 5 sacks in their last three games and Cox should have some time to find receivers downfield. I know he has an issue with interceptions lately but like I said, the time off is going to do him some good and I expect him to be ready for this big game. The Tigers did not lose one single fumble in their last three games of the season and it's not like Clemson is a team that forces fumbles as they forced (not recovered but forced) only one single fumble in their last three games of the season. Auburn has the running game to make some kind of dent in this very good run defense of Clemson but it's when the Tigers go to the air that I expect things to open and get a bit crazy. This won't be an offensive display of fireworks for the Tigers but once they get the ball rolling, their defense should be able to take this game over and the offense should be right behind them. I like Auburn to keep it close after going down early and I like them to come on really strong at the end and win this game.
The Clemson Tigers are a team I have had problems capping for and against in the past but this season I have done a bit better and am starting to understand how Bowden coaches these guys. The Tigers can look like one of the top teams in college football one week and then they can look like one of the worst teams in the ACC the next week. If you don't believe me, Clemson is the team that finished the season 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games with big wins over Central Michigan, Maryland, Duke, Wake Forest and South Carolina. They also beat NC State and Florida State earlier in the year. However, this is also the same Clemson team that lost 13-3 to a bad Georgia Tech team, that lost 41-23 at home to Virginia Tech and lost 20-17 to Boston College when the game mattered most. Okay their track record is not that bad but they have not really beat opponents of Auburn's caliber. Clemson is an impressive 4-1 SU away from home this season and they are 3-1 ATS in those games but those wins came against South Carolina, Maryland, Duke and NC State. Three of those teams are not playing in Bowl Games this Bowl season so once again their credibility in level of opponent talent is very questionable compared to Auburn's. Clemson comes into this game averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they somehow managed to also average 375.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games which is nothing to go nuts about considering who they faced. Auburn's defense is downright dirty when they play well and they have allowed only 19.3 points per game in their last three games this season. They have also allowed only 315.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.1 yards per play which gives them a good shot here. On the ground, Clemson has run the ball well all season but in their last three games they have slowed down a bit and are averaging only 135.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry which won't do much against this defense. Auburn has allowed 142.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry but even if Clemson does get some yards on the ground, they are not going to win the game that way because their passing attack is too big a part of the offense to just let it go. In the air, QB Cullen Harper had shoulder surgery in late November and he could be a bit out of it and out of synch in this game. Harper completed 71.1% of his passes in the last three games of the season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Auburn's secondary has a few off games at the end of the season as they allowed their last three opponents to complete 57.5% of their passes for an unusually high 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Clemson's problem as of late has been pass protection as Harper has been downed 7 times in the last three games and Auburn has the ability to really come at QBs hard with blitz packages. They have not done it as much recently but the Tigers have some quick guys on the ends and I expect a lot of pressure in this game. Clemson much like Auburn, has not lost one single fumble in their last three games this season but the difference between the two defenses is that Clemson does not force turnovers as much as they used to while Auburn has forced 6 fumbles in their last three games, they recovered 3 of those fumbles, they always come at you hard and they are always looking to strip the ball away from opponents. Aggressive defenses are the way to go in Bowl Games and I actually Clemson struggling a lot in this game tonight as Auburn should come out fired up to win this thing in a stadium they are somewhat familiar with.
BATTLE OF THE TIGERS! This is probably one of the best bowl matchups of the entire bunch because you have two very good but very sketchy coaches going at it with their programs here. The two schools have surprisingly not met since 1998 in a Bowl Game where Auburn won by four points in a traditional low-scoring affaire that we are probably going to see again tonight. Both teams are pretty much the same. Clemson's offense is actually better than Auburn's but that cancels itself out with Auburn having the more aggressive defense that can force turnovers and get their offense the ball back. Clemson's QB Cullen Harper was on quite the roll when it was determined he needed surgery in late November and for me that's a huge question mark coming into this game. Auburn's QB Brandon Cox on the other hand badly needed a few weeks off to collect his thoughts and get his head back into this team because the last three games of the season were some of his worst games ever. Auburn is not a team you bet against when they are underdogs as they went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs, they have been beating and covering against winning teams left and right but the only knock on them is their 0-5 ATS mark in their last five games versus an ACC opponent. However, Clemson is not about to beat them in this game as the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and apart from beating up on ACC minnows, the Tigers haven't done much else. WAR EAGLE TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
Auburn 21, Clemson 17
OVERALL RECORD: 6-0
OVERALL WIN/LOSS: +140 units
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