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Week 5
4* Washington -3.5 over Detroit
The Skins are a much improved team this year and are pretty good on both sides of the ball. Don't let Detroit's 3-1 record fool you, they are a below average team. Their only strong point is the passing game which is ranked 3rd in the league in YPPA (yards per pass attempt) at 8.5. But, this week their only strength will be shut down by a Skins defense that is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 5.8 YPPA. On the ground the Lions are poor averaging only 3.8 YPR (yards per rush) (21st) and 75 YPG (yards per game) rushing (31st). Defensively they are very bad as they allow 30.2 PPG (points per game) versus opponents that have averaged only 19.6 PPG! Against the run they allow 4 YPR (19th) and 7.6 YPPA (23rd). On the injury front, C. Johnson has been upgraded to probable and T.J. Duckett is day to day. If either player is out this will be a blow to Detroit's offense, but I expect them to play. Also, Detroit is coming off a big win versus their divisional rival the Chicago Bears.
Washington is a solid team this year. They are coming off a bye and a loss to division foe the N.Y. Giants, so they will be ready to play this week. Offensively, they average 4 YPR (18th in NFL), but I expect Betts to get more carries this week as Portis is banged up and actually he is a better back, but they have to feed Portis when he is healthy because of his huge contract. In the air J. Campbell is 3rd in yards/pass completion (13.5) and 13th in YPPA (7.4). He has not been accurate this year, but against the Lions weak defense I look for this to improve. The Skins D has been very good allowing 17.7 PPG versus teams that have averaged 24.3 PPG thus far. Washington's rush D is decent allowing 4 YPR (14th), but as mentioned above their pass D is tops in the league and putting the ball in the air is the Lions strength. The Super System has the line at Washington -5.5 so it is not significant. There are 3 trends favoring the Lions, but 14 situational trends (all of which are 65% or greater) favoring the Skins including a 34-9 (79%) trend (since 1986).
2* New Orleans -3 (-120) over Carolina (may be upgraded to 3*)
New Orleans is obviously not the same team they were last year, but coming off a bye and playing at home they are in a must win situation versus a banged up Carolina team. The Panthers are a below average football team. Offensively, their run game is not bad averaging 4.6 YPR (9th in NFL), but their passing game has struggled no matter who is at the helm, and this week it's David Carr. The Panthers only average 6.39 YPPA; good enough to be ranked 23rd in the NFL. Through the years, Carolina has relied on its defense, but they are not getting it done in 2007. They are allowing 21.7 PPG to teams that have averaged only 16.9 PPG. They are average against the run and pass allowing 6.7 YPPA and 4 YPR (17th in NFL). Carolina is also in a tough schedule position as they are playing there second road game in a stint where they play 3 out of 4 on the road.
The Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams this year. It just doesn't make sense that you can return 21 of 22 starters and be this poor. Their defense was never strong last year, so I understand why they are struggling, but their offense was tops in the league. I don't think their offense can be as dominant as they were last year without Deuce pounding the ball, but I think they will look improved this week. Their running game has been horrible averaging 3.5 YPR (25th in NFL), but more surprising is Brees' inability to pass. The Saint are only averaging 5.2 YPPA (31st in NFL). He has a dismal passer rating of 57.1 and has thrown 7 int's! Brees can only get better, and I think he will with an extra week of preparation. The Saint's pass defense has also been struggling as they are allowing 10 YPPA in the air, but their rush D is strong as they are ranked 8th allowing only 3.7 YPR. I'm not concerned about their poor pass defense because they will be facing David Carr this week. Another big reason that New Orleans is 0-3 is because they are -8 in turnover ratio (last in league) and this is unlikely to continue as turnovers are mainly independent from week to week. Also, the Saints strength of schedule is 1st in the league as opposed to the Panthers which is ranked 24th. There are situational trends favoring both teams that cancel each other out. The Bye Week Picks Super System has this game at a pick 'em (only significant if greater that 4.3 points from spread). A must win game for the Saints!
Note: If line is 3.5 buy the 1/2 point. Line is -3 at Stations Casino on Friday. Still a 2* at 3.5.
2* Chicago +3.5 over Green Bay
I am not betting the Bears this game; better put, I am betting against the Pack. Let's get one thing straight the Packers may be 4-0 but they are merely average! You cannot win in the NFL without at the very least a decent running game, and Green Bay is dead last in the league averaging only 2.8 YPG and 54 YPG! Even Favre knows how bad their run game is. "Our run game at this point is non-existent, I don't think we can win consistently unless we get more balanced." They're going to have a tough time rushing against the Bears who are ranked 4th in the league versus the rush. Favre is having a good year, but without a running game this will not continue. Though the Pack are 2nd in the league in passing yards per game, this number is skewed because Favre passes so much, and he is ranked 17th averaging only 7.1 YPPA. He threw 47 interceptions over the last two seasons and only has 2 this year; this rate is not likely to continue. Last time I checked he wasn't 27 years old again. In fact, even in his prime he was always a gun slinger averaging about 19 interceptions per year. I love when the commentators talk about how good Green Bay's defense is. It is simply average. Their rush D is actually very poor as they allow 4.5 YPR (24th) and their pass D is a little better giving up 6.7 YPPA (11th). GB's level of competition has not been good either this year; they are ranked 20th in strength of schedule.
The Bears have been a very disappointing team this year. They need to get back to what led them to the NFC championship last year, defense and running the ball. Griese has no business throwing the ball 52 times. Their defense has allowed 23.7 PPG, but they have played good competition that has averaged 24.3 PPG. The Bears are banged up on D but I expect them to come out fired up as they face their long time rival on national T.V. Against the run, the Bears are one of the best in the league allowing only 3.4 YPR (4th), so the game will be on Favre's shoulders and as I said above he cannot continue this play forever without a running attack. Against the pass they are allowing a poor 8.2 YPPA. They look bad offensively, as they only average 3.3 YPR (28th). Benson had a good season last year averaging 4.1 YPR, so I expect him to improve this year. Griese is actually a solid QB. His career numbers are: 7 YPPA, 106 TD's to 83 INT's, and a passer rating of 84.2 (for comparison, Favre's career QB raing is 85.3). He is definitely a step up compared to Grossman whose career numbers are: 6.5 YPPA, 28 TD's to 32 INT's, and a 69.3 passer rating. I see head coach Lovie Smith calling a more conservative game this week and not letting Griese throw so much. Another reason the Bears are 1-3 is because they are -7 in turnover ratio (second only to the Saints). I see the Bears in a tight game versus their rivals. Still a 2* at a line of 3.
1* St. Louis +3.5 over Arizona
I have bet Arizona 3 times this year and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFL. So, why am I betting the Rams? As I said before, the NFL is weird; the better team does not always win. Also, once the public starts betting heavy on a team (like Arizona) the odds makers will adjust the line. There are 17 situational trends that favor the Rams (9 of which are greater than 70 %). Most of these trends play on the fact that St. Louis has been playing so poorly the last few games and are now facing a team with an average defense. One trend is an amazing 142-43 (76.7%) over the last 20 years. The Cardinals rushing game is average gaining 4.3 YPR (13th in NFL), but their passing game is not strong. Whisenhunt has decided to go with a two quarterback system which rarely works in the NFL. It puts pressure on Leinhart to perform and the offensive line (especially because Warner is right handed and Leinhart is left handed) and receivers can never get in a groove. Though they have won a couple games, the tandem only passes for 6.7 YPPA (21st in NFL). The injuries of A. Boldin (doubtful) and right tackle L. Brown (questionable) will hurt Zona's run and pass attack. Defensively, they're solid allowing 3.8 YPR (11th) and 6.9 YPPA (13th).
The Rams have been a disappointment this year, especially their offense. This week they will start 15 year veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte will be an improvement to a banged up Bulger, as he has averaged 5.9 YPPA in his career and Bulger has only averaged 4.8 this year. Year in and year out you see the backup coming in and giving the offense the spark they need. The Rams also get back a couple injured players; guard R. Incognito and CB F. Brown are set to return this week. Brown will replace L. Walls who was smoked repeatedly last week. The Rams only manage 3.4 YPR and 5.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.8 YPR (26th) and 8.3 YPPA (26th). But, I am not betting the Rams because of stats. Also, Arizona is coming off a win as a 6 point dog versus Pittsburgh and this is a favorable schedule situation for the Rams as they are coming off a 2 game road trip and begin a 2 game road trip next week. Unfortunately, my Super System favors the Cards by 8.5 points, limiting the Rams a 1* play. Still a 1* at a line of 3.
4* Washington -3.5 over Detroit
The Skins are a much improved team this year and are pretty good on both sides of the ball. Don't let Detroit's 3-1 record fool you, they are a below average team. Their only strong point is the passing game which is ranked 3rd in the league in YPPA (yards per pass attempt) at 8.5. But, this week their only strength will be shut down by a Skins defense that is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 5.8 YPPA. On the ground the Lions are poor averaging only 3.8 YPR (yards per rush) (21st) and 75 YPG (yards per game) rushing (31st). Defensively they are very bad as they allow 30.2 PPG (points per game) versus opponents that have averaged only 19.6 PPG! Against the run they allow 4 YPR (19th) and 7.6 YPPA (23rd). On the injury front, C. Johnson has been upgraded to probable and T.J. Duckett is day to day. If either player is out this will be a blow to Detroit's offense, but I expect them to play. Also, Detroit is coming off a big win versus their divisional rival the Chicago Bears.
Washington is a solid team this year. They are coming off a bye and a loss to division foe the N.Y. Giants, so they will be ready to play this week. Offensively, they average 4 YPR (18th in NFL), but I expect Betts to get more carries this week as Portis is banged up and actually he is a better back, but they have to feed Portis when he is healthy because of his huge contract. In the air J. Campbell is 3rd in yards/pass completion (13.5) and 13th in YPPA (7.4). He has not been accurate this year, but against the Lions weak defense I look for this to improve. The Skins D has been very good allowing 17.7 PPG versus teams that have averaged 24.3 PPG thus far. Washington's rush D is decent allowing 4 YPR (14th), but as mentioned above their pass D is tops in the league and putting the ball in the air is the Lions strength. The Super System has the line at Washington -5.5 so it is not significant. There are 3 trends favoring the Lions, but 14 situational trends (all of which are 65% or greater) favoring the Skins including a 34-9 (79%) trend (since 1986).
2* New Orleans -3 (-120) over Carolina (may be upgraded to 3*)
New Orleans is obviously not the same team they were last year, but coming off a bye and playing at home they are in a must win situation versus a banged up Carolina team. The Panthers are a below average football team. Offensively, their run game is not bad averaging 4.6 YPR (9th in NFL), but their passing game has struggled no matter who is at the helm, and this week it's David Carr. The Panthers only average 6.39 YPPA; good enough to be ranked 23rd in the NFL. Through the years, Carolina has relied on its defense, but they are not getting it done in 2007. They are allowing 21.7 PPG to teams that have averaged only 16.9 PPG. They are average against the run and pass allowing 6.7 YPPA and 4 YPR (17th in NFL). Carolina is also in a tough schedule position as they are playing there second road game in a stint where they play 3 out of 4 on the road.
The Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams this year. It just doesn't make sense that you can return 21 of 22 starters and be this poor. Their defense was never strong last year, so I understand why they are struggling, but their offense was tops in the league. I don't think their offense can be as dominant as they were last year without Deuce pounding the ball, but I think they will look improved this week. Their running game has been horrible averaging 3.5 YPR (25th in NFL), but more surprising is Brees' inability to pass. The Saint are only averaging 5.2 YPPA (31st in NFL). He has a dismal passer rating of 57.1 and has thrown 7 int's! Brees can only get better, and I think he will with an extra week of preparation. The Saint's pass defense has also been struggling as they are allowing 10 YPPA in the air, but their rush D is strong as they are ranked 8th allowing only 3.7 YPR. I'm not concerned about their poor pass defense because they will be facing David Carr this week. Another big reason that New Orleans is 0-3 is because they are -8 in turnover ratio (last in league) and this is unlikely to continue as turnovers are mainly independent from week to week. Also, the Saints strength of schedule is 1st in the league as opposed to the Panthers which is ranked 24th. There are situational trends favoring both teams that cancel each other out. The Bye Week Picks Super System has this game at a pick 'em (only significant if greater that 4.3 points from spread). A must win game for the Saints!
Note: If line is 3.5 buy the 1/2 point. Line is -3 at Stations Casino on Friday. Still a 2* at 3.5.
2* Chicago +3.5 over Green Bay
I am not betting the Bears this game; better put, I am betting against the Pack. Let's get one thing straight the Packers may be 4-0 but they are merely average! You cannot win in the NFL without at the very least a decent running game, and Green Bay is dead last in the league averaging only 2.8 YPG and 54 YPG! Even Favre knows how bad their run game is. "Our run game at this point is non-existent, I don't think we can win consistently unless we get more balanced." They're going to have a tough time rushing against the Bears who are ranked 4th in the league versus the rush. Favre is having a good year, but without a running game this will not continue. Though the Pack are 2nd in the league in passing yards per game, this number is skewed because Favre passes so much, and he is ranked 17th averaging only 7.1 YPPA. He threw 47 interceptions over the last two seasons and only has 2 this year; this rate is not likely to continue. Last time I checked he wasn't 27 years old again. In fact, even in his prime he was always a gun slinger averaging about 19 interceptions per year. I love when the commentators talk about how good Green Bay's defense is. It is simply average. Their rush D is actually very poor as they allow 4.5 YPR (24th) and their pass D is a little better giving up 6.7 YPPA (11th). GB's level of competition has not been good either this year; they are ranked 20th in strength of schedule.
The Bears have been a very disappointing team this year. They need to get back to what led them to the NFC championship last year, defense and running the ball. Griese has no business throwing the ball 52 times. Their defense has allowed 23.7 PPG, but they have played good competition that has averaged 24.3 PPG. The Bears are banged up on D but I expect them to come out fired up as they face their long time rival on national T.V. Against the run, the Bears are one of the best in the league allowing only 3.4 YPR (4th), so the game will be on Favre's shoulders and as I said above he cannot continue this play forever without a running attack. Against the pass they are allowing a poor 8.2 YPPA. They look bad offensively, as they only average 3.3 YPR (28th). Benson had a good season last year averaging 4.1 YPR, so I expect him to improve this year. Griese is actually a solid QB. His career numbers are: 7 YPPA, 106 TD's to 83 INT's, and a passer rating of 84.2 (for comparison, Favre's career QB raing is 85.3). He is definitely a step up compared to Grossman whose career numbers are: 6.5 YPPA, 28 TD's to 32 INT's, and a 69.3 passer rating. I see head coach Lovie Smith calling a more conservative game this week and not letting Griese throw so much. Another reason the Bears are 1-3 is because they are -7 in turnover ratio (second only to the Saints). I see the Bears in a tight game versus their rivals. Still a 2* at a line of 3.
1* St. Louis +3.5 over Arizona
I have bet Arizona 3 times this year and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFL. So, why am I betting the Rams? As I said before, the NFL is weird; the better team does not always win. Also, once the public starts betting heavy on a team (like Arizona) the odds makers will adjust the line. There are 17 situational trends that favor the Rams (9 of which are greater than 70 %). Most of these trends play on the fact that St. Louis has been playing so poorly the last few games and are now facing a team with an average defense. One trend is an amazing 142-43 (76.7%) over the last 20 years. The Cardinals rushing game is average gaining 4.3 YPR (13th in NFL), but their passing game is not strong. Whisenhunt has decided to go with a two quarterback system which rarely works in the NFL. It puts pressure on Leinhart to perform and the offensive line (especially because Warner is right handed and Leinhart is left handed) and receivers can never get in a groove. Though they have won a couple games, the tandem only passes for 6.7 YPPA (21st in NFL). The injuries of A. Boldin (doubtful) and right tackle L. Brown (questionable) will hurt Zona's run and pass attack. Defensively, they're solid allowing 3.8 YPR (11th) and 6.9 YPPA (13th).
The Rams have been a disappointment this year, especially their offense. This week they will start 15 year veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte will be an improvement to a banged up Bulger, as he has averaged 5.9 YPPA in his career and Bulger has only averaged 4.8 this year. Year in and year out you see the backup coming in and giving the offense the spark they need. The Rams also get back a couple injured players; guard R. Incognito and CB F. Brown are set to return this week. Brown will replace L. Walls who was smoked repeatedly last week. The Rams only manage 3.4 YPR and 5.7 YPPA. Defensively, they are not much better allowing 4.8 YPR (26th) and 8.3 YPPA (26th). But, I am not betting the Rams because of stats. Also, Arizona is coming off a win as a 6 point dog versus Pittsburgh and this is a favorable schedule situation for the Rams as they are coming off a 2 game road trip and begin a 2 game road trip next week. Unfortunately, my Super System favors the Cards by 8.5 points, limiting the Rams a 1* play. Still a 1* at a line of 3.