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Week 4
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units (Games of Year)
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Check Back Later For Possible Sunday Night Play
3* Minnesota +2 over Green Bay
Green Bay has been a surprising 3-0 team so far. But, the reason the Pack are favored in this game is public perception. The betting public love to bet Favre and the Packers. Minnesota is actually a better team, and with Green Bay coming off an underdog victory against the Chargers and winning 3 in a row straight up and against the spread they are in a tough schedule position. As opposed to the Vikings who are in a great schedule position. They are coming off two road games and are traveling for their next two games, so this is a must win divisional game. The Packers rushing game is horrible only averaging 2.9 YPR (30th in NFL). Their passing game is not much better. Though Favre is averaging 273 YPG this is skewed because he has so many attempts; he only averages 10.2 YPP (22nd). The Packers D is only average as well. They allow 3.7 YPR (10th in NFL) and 11.3 YPP (19th in NFL). Part of the reason the Bay is 3-0 is their schedule; they have the 6th easiest schedule in the league.
Minnesota is 1-2, but they are a very solid team. Holcomb will be starting at QB which is actually an upgrade from T. Jackson (who has 1 TD and 5 interceptions this year and a completion percentage of 56.2 for his career). Holcomb is a 10 year veteran who has 37 TD's to his 37 picks with a passer rating of 80. The Viking's running game is very strong (4.3 YPR, 11th) with A.P. and they get C. Taylor back this week. Minnesota's defense is one of the top in the league. They are 1st in the NFL against the run allowing only 2.5 YPR and 7th against the pass (9.5 YPP). The Vikes will be able to move the ball against the Pack's mediocre D and Green Bay will have a tough time against the Vikings top D.
2* St. Louis +13 1/2 over Dallas
If S. Jackson was playing this week this would be a 3* or 4*, but he is expected to be out on Sunday. Though the Boys are obviously the better team, this line is too high especially as Dallas is coming off a big Sunday night victory in Chicago. They are in a big letdown situation especially as they face a seemingly inferior team which they will probably take lightly. The NFL is a funny thing; it is a league of streaks and all streaks come to an end. The better team does not always win. Dallas is coming off three consecutive wins straight up and ATS and the Rams are coming off three losses both against the spread and straight up. The Cowboys definitely have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 4.8 YPR on the ground (5th in the NFL) and Romo is doing well as he is third in the league in passer rating and 6th in yards. But, defensively they are below average as they allow 3.9 YPR (17th) and 250 YPG in the air (23rd). The most important stat is that Dallas is an astounding +7 in turnover margin (1st in NFL) and this is unlikely to continue. In fact, in the NFL turnovers are 75% independent of the teams playing, so it's basically luck. These turnovers have been a big factor in their victories thus far. The Cowboys also have not faced any competition this year as they have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL.
The Rams have been very disappointing so far. Their very strong offense has been struggling so far. St. Louis is only averaging 3.5 YPG (25th in NFL) and 9.6 yards/pass (23rd in NFL). But, against the Cowboy's weak defense and Bulger on turf I see this turning around this week, at leas enough for the cover. Jackson being out is definitely a set back but he has been playing so poorly this year that the backup might actually give them a boost. St. Louis' rush defense is weak allowing 4.7 YPR but their pass defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL only allowing 146 YPG. This will force the Cowboys to run and eat up the clock. There are over 15 trends from byeweekpicks database many of which are greater that 75%, including a 40-9 (82%, since 1986) trend favoring the Rams because of the Cowboys lucky turnover margin.
1* Arizona +6 1/2 over Pittsburgh
I've have been riding Zona the last two weeks and won both. They are an underrated team, and Pitt has not played any competition yet to show me they are for real. The Steelers have the worst strength of schedule in the league as they have faced the Browns, Bills, and Niners. They have a strong running game averaging 5.5 YPR, but I still don't think Roethlisberger is a top level QB. The Steelers D is merely average and this against weak offenses. Their rushing D is 20th in the NFL (4.4 YPR) and their pass D allows 10 YPP (11th in NFL).
Arizona offense is pretty strong this year as they average 4.5 YPR (8th in NFL) and 11.5 YPP (11th in NFL). Leinhart had a tough time last week, but I think he is slowly improving and Zona is going to rely heavily on their rushing game this week. Arizona's D is also strong as they allow only 9.7 YPP and 4.1 against the run. Boldin is out the Zona, but Ward is out for Pitt so these should cancel out. There are 4 trends in my database favoring Arizona. I like the big home dog as the Steelers are forced to travel cross country.
Week 4
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units (Games of Year)
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Check Back Later For Possible Sunday Night Play
3* Minnesota +2 over Green Bay
Green Bay has been a surprising 3-0 team so far. But, the reason the Pack are favored in this game is public perception. The betting public love to bet Favre and the Packers. Minnesota is actually a better team, and with Green Bay coming off an underdog victory against the Chargers and winning 3 in a row straight up and against the spread they are in a tough schedule position. As opposed to the Vikings who are in a great schedule position. They are coming off two road games and are traveling for their next two games, so this is a must win divisional game. The Packers rushing game is horrible only averaging 2.9 YPR (30th in NFL). Their passing game is not much better. Though Favre is averaging 273 YPG this is skewed because he has so many attempts; he only averages 10.2 YPP (22nd). The Packers D is only average as well. They allow 3.7 YPR (10th in NFL) and 11.3 YPP (19th in NFL). Part of the reason the Bay is 3-0 is their schedule; they have the 6th easiest schedule in the league.
Minnesota is 1-2, but they are a very solid team. Holcomb will be starting at QB which is actually an upgrade from T. Jackson (who has 1 TD and 5 interceptions this year and a completion percentage of 56.2 for his career). Holcomb is a 10 year veteran who has 37 TD's to his 37 picks with a passer rating of 80. The Viking's running game is very strong (4.3 YPR, 11th) with A.P. and they get C. Taylor back this week. Minnesota's defense is one of the top in the league. They are 1st in the NFL against the run allowing only 2.5 YPR and 7th against the pass (9.5 YPP). The Vikes will be able to move the ball against the Pack's mediocre D and Green Bay will have a tough time against the Vikings top D.
2* St. Louis +13 1/2 over Dallas
If S. Jackson was playing this week this would be a 3* or 4*, but he is expected to be out on Sunday. Though the Boys are obviously the better team, this line is too high especially as Dallas is coming off a big Sunday night victory in Chicago. They are in a big letdown situation especially as they face a seemingly inferior team which they will probably take lightly. The NFL is a funny thing; it is a league of streaks and all streaks come to an end. The better team does not always win. Dallas is coming off three consecutive wins straight up and ATS and the Rams are coming off three losses both against the spread and straight up. The Cowboys definitely have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 4.8 YPR on the ground (5th in the NFL) and Romo is doing well as he is third in the league in passer rating and 6th in yards. But, defensively they are below average as they allow 3.9 YPR (17th) and 250 YPG in the air (23rd). The most important stat is that Dallas is an astounding +7 in turnover margin (1st in NFL) and this is unlikely to continue. In fact, in the NFL turnovers are 75% independent of the teams playing, so it's basically luck. These turnovers have been a big factor in their victories thus far. The Cowboys also have not faced any competition this year as they have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL.
The Rams have been very disappointing so far. Their very strong offense has been struggling so far. St. Louis is only averaging 3.5 YPG (25th in NFL) and 9.6 yards/pass (23rd in NFL). But, against the Cowboy's weak defense and Bulger on turf I see this turning around this week, at leas enough for the cover. Jackson being out is definitely a set back but he has been playing so poorly this year that the backup might actually give them a boost. St. Louis' rush defense is weak allowing 4.7 YPR but their pass defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL only allowing 146 YPG. This will force the Cowboys to run and eat up the clock. There are over 15 trends from byeweekpicks database many of which are greater that 75%, including a 40-9 (82%, since 1986) trend favoring the Rams because of the Cowboys lucky turnover margin.
1* Arizona +6 1/2 over Pittsburgh
I've have been riding Zona the last two weeks and won both. They are an underrated team, and Pitt has not played any competition yet to show me they are for real. The Steelers have the worst strength of schedule in the league as they have faced the Browns, Bills, and Niners. They have a strong running game averaging 5.5 YPR, but I still don't think Roethlisberger is a top level QB. The Steelers D is merely average and this against weak offenses. Their rushing D is 20th in the NFL (4.4 YPR) and their pass D allows 10 YPP (11th in NFL).
Arizona offense is pretty strong this year as they average 4.5 YPR (8th in NFL) and 11.5 YPP (11th in NFL). Leinhart had a tough time last week, but I think he is slowly improving and Zona is going to rely heavily on their rushing game this week. Arizona's D is also strong as they allow only 9.7 YPP and 4.1 against the run. Boldin is out the Zona, but Ward is out for Pitt so these should cancel out. There are 4 trends in my database favoring Arizona. I like the big home dog as the Steelers are forced to travel cross country.