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2007 Record: 1-1
Week 3
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units (Games of Year)
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Waiting on final injury reports so may be more picks, check back Saturday evening or Sunday morning for final plays
3* Denver -3 (-115) over Jacksonville
The Jags look to be overrated this year and are traveling to Denver to face a 2-0 Bronco team. Jacksonville's offense is below average this year gaining only 94 YPG on the ground (21st in NFL) and 224 in the air (14th). They are dead last in the league allowing 182 YPG on the ground and are facing a Bronco offense that has averaged 176 YPG rushing (4th in NFL). This will allow Denver to control the clock. At first glance the Jags pass D looks strong allowing only 117 YPG, but this number is skewed because teams have been running wild on them. Taking a closer look, they allow 10.1 yards/pass (13th in NFL). The Jags are also banged up on defense as DE Reggie Hayward is out and safety Gerald Sensabaugh left Sunday's game and is also expected to be out. The Jags have struggled on the road where they were 2-6 ATS last year.
Denver is 2-0 but won by a field goal against two bad teams (Buffalo and Oakland). But, taking a closer look at these games they actually dominated but could not finish their drives. Against the Bills they gained 470 yards to the Bills 184! In week 2 they out gained the Raiders 441 to 253 and had 26 first downs compared to the Raiders 11. Denver's offense is great this year. They are 4th in the league in rushing (176 YPG) and 5th in passing (280 YPG), and J. Cutler looks as if he is on his way to becoming a top tier QB. Defensively, they are also strong as they have only allowed 63 YPG in the air (best in the NFL)! They have been struggling against the run allowing 156 YPG, but as mentioned above will be facing a Jags rushing offense that is at the bottom of the league. Denver will continue their offensive dominance but this week they will get in the end zone!
2* Arizona +8 over Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-1 this year and does not deserve to be an 8 point favor this week. The Ravens game is based on defense and field position, and it is hard to cover a line this high when you are playing this way. In week 1 they lost to the lowly Bengals and barely beat the Jets with a backup QB last week. The Raven's offense is sub-par (as always) this year. In the air they are only averaging 193 YPG (23rd). McNair will be starting this week which doesn't affect my opinion on this game. Actually, McNair's career numbers are not that much better than Boller's. The rushing game is supposed to be the Ravens strong point, but they are only averaging 113 YPG (15th in NFL) and 3.8 YPR (20th in NFL). They will be without star offensive lineman Ogden which will make McGahee's job even tougher this week. Against the run the Ravens are still tough allowing only 62 YPG, but their opposing teams rushing games have been weak and will face a Cards team that is 6th in the NFL in rushing (147 YPG). Versus the pass they are average allowing 208 YPG (16th in NFL).
Arizona has been playing good football this year. Leinhart has been struggling, only averaging 200 YPG in the air, but it looks that E. James is back to his old form as the Cards are averaging 147 YPG on the ground. The biggest surprise is their defense this year. They are only allowing 92 YPG on the ground (10th in NFL) and 140 YPG in the air (9th in NFL) and this week will be facing a bad Baltimore offense. Both teams will be relying on their running game and the clock will be ticking, a big advantage for the dog. This line is too high for a ball control team like the Ravens…GO CARDS!
2007 Record: 1-1
Week 3
1*: 1/3 to 1/4 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units (Games of Year)
Lines posted are from when I wagered on games, and these will be what I use for record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
Waiting on final injury reports so may be more picks, check back Saturday evening or Sunday morning for final plays
3* Denver -3 (-115) over Jacksonville
The Jags look to be overrated this year and are traveling to Denver to face a 2-0 Bronco team. Jacksonville's offense is below average this year gaining only 94 YPG on the ground (21st in NFL) and 224 in the air (14th). They are dead last in the league allowing 182 YPG on the ground and are facing a Bronco offense that has averaged 176 YPG rushing (4th in NFL). This will allow Denver to control the clock. At first glance the Jags pass D looks strong allowing only 117 YPG, but this number is skewed because teams have been running wild on them. Taking a closer look, they allow 10.1 yards/pass (13th in NFL). The Jags are also banged up on defense as DE Reggie Hayward is out and safety Gerald Sensabaugh left Sunday's game and is also expected to be out. The Jags have struggled on the road where they were 2-6 ATS last year.
Denver is 2-0 but won by a field goal against two bad teams (Buffalo and Oakland). But, taking a closer look at these games they actually dominated but could not finish their drives. Against the Bills they gained 470 yards to the Bills 184! In week 2 they out gained the Raiders 441 to 253 and had 26 first downs compared to the Raiders 11. Denver's offense is great this year. They are 4th in the league in rushing (176 YPG) and 5th in passing (280 YPG), and J. Cutler looks as if he is on his way to becoming a top tier QB. Defensively, they are also strong as they have only allowed 63 YPG in the air (best in the NFL)! They have been struggling against the run allowing 156 YPG, but as mentioned above will be facing a Jags rushing offense that is at the bottom of the league. Denver will continue their offensive dominance but this week they will get in the end zone!
2* Arizona +8 over Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-1 this year and does not deserve to be an 8 point favor this week. The Ravens game is based on defense and field position, and it is hard to cover a line this high when you are playing this way. In week 1 they lost to the lowly Bengals and barely beat the Jets with a backup QB last week. The Raven's offense is sub-par (as always) this year. In the air they are only averaging 193 YPG (23rd). McNair will be starting this week which doesn't affect my opinion on this game. Actually, McNair's career numbers are not that much better than Boller's. The rushing game is supposed to be the Ravens strong point, but they are only averaging 113 YPG (15th in NFL) and 3.8 YPR (20th in NFL). They will be without star offensive lineman Ogden which will make McGahee's job even tougher this week. Against the run the Ravens are still tough allowing only 62 YPG, but their opposing teams rushing games have been weak and will face a Cards team that is 6th in the NFL in rushing (147 YPG). Versus the pass they are average allowing 208 YPG (16th in NFL).
Arizona has been playing good football this year. Leinhart has been struggling, only averaging 200 YPG in the air, but it looks that E. James is back to his old form as the Cards are averaging 147 YPG on the ground. The biggest surprise is their defense this year. They are only allowing 92 YPG on the ground (10th in NFL) and 140 YPG in the air (9th in NFL) and this week will be facing a bad Baltimore offense. Both teams will be relying on their running game and the clock will be ticking, a big advantage for the dog. This line is too high for a ball control team like the Ravens…GO CARDS!