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Coventry vs. Preston
Cast your mind back seven league games. Preston were +137 favourites for their trip to Coventry and they obliged their many backers by winning 4-0 at the Ricoh with goals from Chris Sedgwick, David Nugent and a Brett Ormerod brace. So what’s really changed in four months? Well, Nugent has left the club and there’s been a stark turnaround in the relative mood of both camps. But do those factors really warrant such a phenomenal hike in the visitors price? Last season, the Lilywhites failed to score in their opening two games but eventually came good in front of the TV cameras with a big-priced 3-1 win at Wolves. They didn’t look back from that point, losing only once in their next 17 league outings. This season, North End have fired blanks in the opening three games and the similarity of another televised trip to the west Midlands is apparent. Manager Paul Simpson has suffered seven days of torture following last weekend’s 3-0 defeat against a vastly under-rated Colchester side and he is growing impatient for the next opportunity to shut a few people up. If anyone deserves a break right now, it’s the affable Cumbrian. Coventry sit proudly at the top of the Championship but they don’t belong there. The Sky Blues have picked up seven points from three games flying under the radar but they lack the genuine quality to maintain that kind of form when they come under scrutiny. The hype surrounding their solid start and the eyes of a nationwide audience all adds to the weight of pressure on Iain Dowie’s men and with Preston getting the customary half goal start on the handicap is eye-catching. Preston (+0.5) to beat Coventry at -110
West Brom vs. Barsley
Barnsley embarrassed me and my recommendation with a limp display on the opening day, but the 4-1 home defeat against Coventry could turn out to be a blessing of opportunity if the layers prices for this match are anything to go by. The Tykes were widely written off as relegation fodder before a ball had been kicked, largely because of their close shave with the drop last season, but manager Simon Davey has cast the net far and wide to bring in quality from the most exotic of places over the summer. No fewer than 13 new faces have arrived through the Oakwell entrance door, seven of whom are complete unknown quantities to the average odds compiler, so it’s awfully dismissive of them to chalk up the Tykes at +550 on the moneyline for their trip to the Hawthorns. It was perhaps inevitable that Barnsley’s foreign legion would take a little time to settle in but great strides have been made in the wake of that false start against the Sky Blues. A 2-2 draw at Colchester was followed up by an excellent first-half display when racing into a 3-0 lead against Plymouth last time out. The Reds were pegged back to 3-2 by the Pilgrims but those who go against the grain in refusing to underestimate either the U’s or Argyle will be sitting up and taking notice of Barnsley’s results over the coming weeks. The quality at Tony Mowbray’s disposal isn’t a matter of dispute but West Brom have lost two of their opening three games and consistency has not always been their greatest selling point. I could always hold fire to see if Barnsley really are an emerging force, but is it really worth missing out on +550 shot in the meantime?
Barnsley (+1) to beat West Brom at +100
Plymouth vs. Leicester
Milan Mandaric has pulled the plug on Martin Allen’s time at Leicester just four games into the new season and the upheaval is likely to have a destabilising effect on the players, particularly with so many new arrivals over the summer. It’s impossible to know the true reasons behind the Serb’s sudden U-turn on Mad Dog. There is no hidden side to the man, what you see is what you get with Allen, but there does appear to be more than a whiff of meddling in first team affairs from the Foxes’ new owner. It all adds up to a worrying degree of uncertainty around the dressing room and Leicester look vulnerable for the trip to Plymouth under the joint caretaker stewardship of Jon Rudkin, Steve Beaglehole and Mike Stowell. The Pilgrims infuriated manager Ian Holloway when going down 3-2 at Barnsley last weekend and they usually respond in eye-catching fashion whenever Ollie turns all serious on them. A 2-0 win over Doncaster in midweek got them back on track and Argyle remain one of the most enthralling sides in the Championship when they hit full throttle. They often have too much for all but the very best teams to cope with. The only worry is that they don’t always convert their domination into goals. However, the attacking quartet of Barry Hayles, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Rory Fallon and Nick Chadwick provides plenty of competition for places and all four of them have already found the net this season. Given the circumstances, the Pilgrims are a monster bet and the prices must be snapped up quickly because they won’t be around on Saturday morning.
Plymouth (0, -0.5) to beat Leicester at +100
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE
Leyton Orient vs. Northampton
Leyton Orient lead the embryonic League One table with maximum points from three games but they are unlikely to stick around at the summit for too long having thrown so many new faces together. Martin Ling has fielded nine new arrivals this season and while it’s impossible to explain the magic that makes so many strangers click so quickly, the true test of their integration lies in the face of adversity after a couple of setbacks. The Londoners tasted their first defeat at Cardiff in midweek and Peter Whittingham’s cruel injury-time winner might be the single act that finally breaks the O’s spell. Orient will now be without midfielder Sean Thornton for the game on Saturday. He was sent off for two bookable offences at Ninian Park and while it’s difficult to say who pulls the strings in any new-look team, it’s a fair assumption that Thornton accounts for plenty of the creative spark coming from midfield. Northampton have been mugged in each of their last two outings against Brighton and Yeovil, but the Cobblers can make a mockery of the current standings by finding a ruthless streak against the leaders. Some sides can benefit from being unfancied at this early stage of the campaign, a misfiring team can suddenly perform better once the expectation is resting on the shoulders of opponents and this game could put the Cobblers in a frame of mind that has eluded them so far. Northampton are worth chancing because there’s little to suggest these two teams will be far apart come the end of the season.
Northampton (+0.5) to beat Leyton Orient at -125
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO
Barnet vs. Bradford
Barnet made a habit of beating the big teams at Underhill last season and the visit of relegated Bradford might just be the fixture required to kick-start their season. The Bees won seven and drew four of their home games against teams in the top half of the basement, results that included the end of record-breaking runs for Stockport and Hartlepool. They also dumped Northampton and Colchester out of the FA Cup. Barnet were big-priced outsiders for the majority of those fixtures and anyone backing them blindly in such games would have made a packet. The personnel has changed a little over the summer with Paul Fairclough offloading a handful of novice pros in favour of seasoned campaigners like Sagi Burton and Michael Leary, but the spirit within the camp remains the untarnished. We shouldn’t be deterred by their disappointing return of one point from three outings, reports indicate the Bees are in much better shape than results suggest. Successive 2-1 defeats against Hereford and Brentford both came about as a result of highly controversial refereeing decisions with Fairclough frustrated by penalties and red cards in both games. Indeed, it could be argued that no team in the Football League has been given a tougher time by officials than Barnet. Bradford come into the game on the back of their first win having beat Wrexham 2-1 at Valley Parade last weekend but the Bantams have looked anything but the real deal in terms of matching their promotion aspirations. As such, they ought to be taken on at this kind of price.
Barnet (pk) to beat Bradford at -108
Recap
Preston (+0.5) to beat Coventry at -110
Barnsley (+1) to beat West Brom at +100
(THIS IS THE TOP PLAY OF ALL) LOVE IT Plymouth (0, -0.5) to beat Leicester at +100
Northampton (+0.5) to beat Leyton Orient at -125
Barnet (pk) to beat Bradford at -108
Cast your mind back seven league games. Preston were +137 favourites for their trip to Coventry and they obliged their many backers by winning 4-0 at the Ricoh with goals from Chris Sedgwick, David Nugent and a Brett Ormerod brace. So what’s really changed in four months? Well, Nugent has left the club and there’s been a stark turnaround in the relative mood of both camps. But do those factors really warrant such a phenomenal hike in the visitors price? Last season, the Lilywhites failed to score in their opening two games but eventually came good in front of the TV cameras with a big-priced 3-1 win at Wolves. They didn’t look back from that point, losing only once in their next 17 league outings. This season, North End have fired blanks in the opening three games and the similarity of another televised trip to the west Midlands is apparent. Manager Paul Simpson has suffered seven days of torture following last weekend’s 3-0 defeat against a vastly under-rated Colchester side and he is growing impatient for the next opportunity to shut a few people up. If anyone deserves a break right now, it’s the affable Cumbrian. Coventry sit proudly at the top of the Championship but they don’t belong there. The Sky Blues have picked up seven points from three games flying under the radar but they lack the genuine quality to maintain that kind of form when they come under scrutiny. The hype surrounding their solid start and the eyes of a nationwide audience all adds to the weight of pressure on Iain Dowie’s men and with Preston getting the customary half goal start on the handicap is eye-catching. Preston (+0.5) to beat Coventry at -110
West Brom vs. Barsley
Barnsley embarrassed me and my recommendation with a limp display on the opening day, but the 4-1 home defeat against Coventry could turn out to be a blessing of opportunity if the layers prices for this match are anything to go by. The Tykes were widely written off as relegation fodder before a ball had been kicked, largely because of their close shave with the drop last season, but manager Simon Davey has cast the net far and wide to bring in quality from the most exotic of places over the summer. No fewer than 13 new faces have arrived through the Oakwell entrance door, seven of whom are complete unknown quantities to the average odds compiler, so it’s awfully dismissive of them to chalk up the Tykes at +550 on the moneyline for their trip to the Hawthorns. It was perhaps inevitable that Barnsley’s foreign legion would take a little time to settle in but great strides have been made in the wake of that false start against the Sky Blues. A 2-2 draw at Colchester was followed up by an excellent first-half display when racing into a 3-0 lead against Plymouth last time out. The Reds were pegged back to 3-2 by the Pilgrims but those who go against the grain in refusing to underestimate either the U’s or Argyle will be sitting up and taking notice of Barnsley’s results over the coming weeks. The quality at Tony Mowbray’s disposal isn’t a matter of dispute but West Brom have lost two of their opening three games and consistency has not always been their greatest selling point. I could always hold fire to see if Barnsley really are an emerging force, but is it really worth missing out on +550 shot in the meantime?
Barnsley (+1) to beat West Brom at +100
Plymouth vs. Leicester
Milan Mandaric has pulled the plug on Martin Allen’s time at Leicester just four games into the new season and the upheaval is likely to have a destabilising effect on the players, particularly with so many new arrivals over the summer. It’s impossible to know the true reasons behind the Serb’s sudden U-turn on Mad Dog. There is no hidden side to the man, what you see is what you get with Allen, but there does appear to be more than a whiff of meddling in first team affairs from the Foxes’ new owner. It all adds up to a worrying degree of uncertainty around the dressing room and Leicester look vulnerable for the trip to Plymouth under the joint caretaker stewardship of Jon Rudkin, Steve Beaglehole and Mike Stowell. The Pilgrims infuriated manager Ian Holloway when going down 3-2 at Barnsley last weekend and they usually respond in eye-catching fashion whenever Ollie turns all serious on them. A 2-0 win over Doncaster in midweek got them back on track and Argyle remain one of the most enthralling sides in the Championship when they hit full throttle. They often have too much for all but the very best teams to cope with. The only worry is that they don’t always convert their domination into goals. However, the attacking quartet of Barry Hayles, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Rory Fallon and Nick Chadwick provides plenty of competition for places and all four of them have already found the net this season. Given the circumstances, the Pilgrims are a monster bet and the prices must be snapped up quickly because they won’t be around on Saturday morning.
Plymouth (0, -0.5) to beat Leicester at +100
ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE
Leyton Orient vs. Northampton
Leyton Orient lead the embryonic League One table with maximum points from three games but they are unlikely to stick around at the summit for too long having thrown so many new faces together. Martin Ling has fielded nine new arrivals this season and while it’s impossible to explain the magic that makes so many strangers click so quickly, the true test of their integration lies in the face of adversity after a couple of setbacks. The Londoners tasted their first defeat at Cardiff in midweek and Peter Whittingham’s cruel injury-time winner might be the single act that finally breaks the O’s spell. Orient will now be without midfielder Sean Thornton for the game on Saturday. He was sent off for two bookable offences at Ninian Park and while it’s difficult to say who pulls the strings in any new-look team, it’s a fair assumption that Thornton accounts for plenty of the creative spark coming from midfield. Northampton have been mugged in each of their last two outings against Brighton and Yeovil, but the Cobblers can make a mockery of the current standings by finding a ruthless streak against the leaders. Some sides can benefit from being unfancied at this early stage of the campaign, a misfiring team can suddenly perform better once the expectation is resting on the shoulders of opponents and this game could put the Cobblers in a frame of mind that has eluded them so far. Northampton are worth chancing because there’s little to suggest these two teams will be far apart come the end of the season.
Northampton (+0.5) to beat Leyton Orient at -125
ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO
Barnet vs. Bradford
Barnet made a habit of beating the big teams at Underhill last season and the visit of relegated Bradford might just be the fixture required to kick-start their season. The Bees won seven and drew four of their home games against teams in the top half of the basement, results that included the end of record-breaking runs for Stockport and Hartlepool. They also dumped Northampton and Colchester out of the FA Cup. Barnet were big-priced outsiders for the majority of those fixtures and anyone backing them blindly in such games would have made a packet. The personnel has changed a little over the summer with Paul Fairclough offloading a handful of novice pros in favour of seasoned campaigners like Sagi Burton and Michael Leary, but the spirit within the camp remains the untarnished. We shouldn’t be deterred by their disappointing return of one point from three outings, reports indicate the Bees are in much better shape than results suggest. Successive 2-1 defeats against Hereford and Brentford both came about as a result of highly controversial refereeing decisions with Fairclough frustrated by penalties and red cards in both games. Indeed, it could be argued that no team in the Football League has been given a tougher time by officials than Barnet. Bradford come into the game on the back of their first win having beat Wrexham 2-1 at Valley Parade last weekend but the Bantams have looked anything but the real deal in terms of matching their promotion aspirations. As such, they ought to be taken on at this kind of price.
Barnet (pk) to beat Bradford at -108
Recap
Preston (+0.5) to beat Coventry at -110
Barnsley (+1) to beat West Brom at +100
(THIS IS THE TOP PLAY OF ALL) LOVE IT Plymouth (0, -0.5) to beat Leicester at +100
Northampton (+0.5) to beat Leyton Orient at -125
Barnet (pk) to beat Bradford at -108