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Lucky Leprechaun here, with my NFL preview. Im really excited about the regular season starting, as im loaded with all the stats, trends, angles, systems and more, that will help me make a winner out of you. Now before I get to my previews, lets take a look at my 3 best season totals (OVER/UNDER) picks.
Arizona UNDER 5 wins
Chicago UNDER 7.5 wins
Seattle OVER 7.5 wins
Now for my Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia 23 Miami 21
AFC EAST
MIAMI DOLPHINS (12-4): Last Year the Dolphins were ranked in the TOP 3 in 10 out of 11 major stat categories, yet they failed to make the playoffs. This team has some unfinised business to take care of, and with the addition of LB Seau to an already stout defense, plus QB Brian Griese coming over from Denver, this team is poised for a real run at the Title.
BUFFALO BILLS (10-6): QB Drew Bledsoe has made a real difference in this team, maily where confidence is concerned. The Bills took a chance by selecting RB Willis Mcgahee (who may not be able to play till game 10), but with Travis Henry's emergence and the impoved defense, plus the winning attitude of Bledsoe, this team will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all year long.
NEW YORK JETS (8-8): There is optimism for the Fly Boys this year as they won 9 of their last 11 games of 2002, including a shellacking of the Colts (41-0) in the first round of the playoffs. that streak took off once QB Chad Pennington was inserted to lead the team, sending Testeverde to the bench. How Chad will do as "The Man" this year (Especially with WR Coles gone) is a big question mark. The Running amd and defense are solid, but with an unproven aerial game and a tie (with Dallas and Philly) for the toughest schedule in the league, all the Jets can look forward to is a .500 record.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-10): The Pats didn't have a very good off-season in my oppinion. The need for a RB to help bolster the 28th ranked rushing team in the league wasn't addressed. The OL line didn't get any help and for a team that could muster only 91 yrd rushing per game and 3.7 YPC, that just wont do. Well Belichick is a defensive guru so I guess he feels they will win it all on defense, as shown by drafting 7 of 10 players from that side of the ball. Two years ago the Pats were in the SB, but now they're heading in a downward spiral, right to the basement of the AFC East.
AFC NORTH
TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7): The Titan's just missed out on playing in the super Bowl, but 2 quick scores in the second half of the Oakland game sealed their fate. The Titans had a solid draft in June, filling the need for a RB, WR and DB. If McNair and George can stay helthy and a WR emerges, this team will be tough to stop and fun watch in '03. The Titans bring the #2 ranked rushing "D" into this campaign but if they cant stop teams through the air then all they will have to look forward to is an early playoff exit.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-8): Here's a mystery team. Manning, Harrison and James, perhaps the most feared trio in the league since Aikman, Irving and Smith at Dallas, and they could only muster 21 ppg last yr. The defense (21 ppg), however was much improved over 2001 (30 ppg). Dungy sure made his mark on that side of the ball. The Team didn't really hurt or help its self in the off-season. The defense is all set, but the Colts must keep James healthy in order to steal the division away from the Titans. it might not help them to get to the playoffs anyway as Dungy has lost 4 straight post season appearances, being outscored 104-18 in those contests.
HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10): Year 2 for the Texans is under way. Their 1st year was a decent one asthey grabbed 4 wins, including victories over playoff teams NY Giants and Pittsburgh. Their biggest concern heading into '03 is keeping QB David Carr alive. Carr saw most of his rookie season in the NFL from his butt as he was sacked an amazing 76 times. Tough to be a rookie QB on an expansion team. While the offense was the worst in the league, the defense was respectable. The defense will be stronger this year and that will help the Texans stay in alot of games this year, but no more than six wins in '03.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-12): New HC Jack Del Rio has his work cut out for him with this team. The defense was immediately given a boost with the signing of ex-Philadelphia DE Hugh Douglas. Hugh will bolster the line while LB Mike Peterson (Indy) with help upgrade the LB corps. The running game was solid last yr with 131 ypg and 4.6 ypc, but the Jags could only muster 173 ypg through the air. The Jags are in dissaray this year and it looks like they'll be spending the '03 season in the AFC North basement.
AFC SOUTH
CLEVELAND BROWNS (10-6): Your reading this right im pcking the Browns to win the AFC South. The Browns really should their tough mental state last year as 13 of their 17 games were decided by 8 or less points. This team will feed off that this year. The Browns are set at defense, RB and WR, now all they have to do is settle on who will deliver the ball. The good news is that whoever it is, Holcomb or Couch, the offense will be in good hands. The parts are there for this team to shine and thats why they are my surprise pick to win the South.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7): Kordell is gone and now the Steelers offense is in the hands of Tommy Maddox. The Steelers won't win a title on the strength of the QB, as the running game and defense is what propells this team. Their defensive needs were adressed in the off season, with the drafting of CB Troy Palamalu and DE Alonzo Jackson. Thats good news, considering the Steelers allowed 98 points over their last 3 games last year. If the Steelers can get their pass defense under control then then they just might take the division away from the Browns.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-9): 3 years ago this team was sitting on top of the world and now they're just fighting to get back to respectability. The did improve their offense last year over '01, but injuries to the WR's really took its toll on this team. The defense is what let this team down last year. Last year they allowed 6 more ppg and 60 more ypg over '01. The drafting of LB Terrel Suggs should help stabilize this side of the ball for the Ravens. This team needs the defense to set up the offense and if that doesn't happen this year then they wont come close to the 7 win plateau.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-11): Ahh the Bungles. Oops I might not be able to say that in year or 2, as they are on the right track. After a franchise worst 2-14 season last year, HC Dick Lebeau was let go. Enter Marvin Lewis. Remember him? The defensive coordinator of the 2000 Super Bowl champions, the Baltimore Ravens. A team that allowed only 9 ppg that year. LB Spikes is gone, but they will be better with the signing of LB Hardy and with Lewis' presence alone. Kitna will start at QB, bet he will groom QB of the future, Carson Palmer. With Dillon the running game is set and they are a solid WR away from having a decent offense. Baby steps here for the Bengals. This year the defense will be molded and the 'O" will be next year.
AFC WEST
OAKLAND RAIDERS (10-6): You've heard about the Boys of Summer, right? Well meet the Boys of Geritol. Having said that, the aging raiders seem to have one more year in the tank before it all goes south on them. The biggest mistake they made was letting Gruden go to the Bucs. The SB result might have been different had they kept him. The question is will the draft picks they got for gruden help this team out. The schedule makers were kind to Oakland, giving them the 20th easiest schedule. The offense is still solid with Garner, Rice, Gannon and Brown, while the DB's may be the best in the league, but winning the whole ball of wax may be too tall an order for these guys to handle. So for now Im calling for them to win the west but no further.
DENVER BRONCOS (9-7): Obviously Griese wasn't the man to lead this team. Enter Jake Plummer (Arz). Jake was brought in for the purpose of getting the ball to McCaffery, Sharpe, and Smith and I have a feeling that all three are happy right now. Jake will get them the ball. The running game is in good hands with the emergence of Clinton Portis (1508 yds as a rookie) and that will help take the pressure off Plummer. The week spot for the broncos last year was the secondary, yet the used 5 of 10 picks on the DL. The Broncos will score points but if they can't stop anyone then they just may slip below the .500 mark in '03.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-8): If only the Chargers could finish a season a strong as they start one. In 2001 it was a 5-2 start before ending with 9 straight losses. Last year it was a 6-1 start before the Marty fade took over and they finished at 8-8. the weak spot for this team is along the offensive and defensive lines, and that wasn't addressed in the off-season. The signing of David Boston (Arz) will give this team the deep threat they lack for many years. Drew Brees is happy that Boston is here and his stats will show it this year. The defense will sorely miss both Seau and Harrison, but the drafting of 2 CB's with thier first 2 picks will help take the sting out a little. The Chargers will be very competetive this year, but until they stop having that second half swoon, then it'll be the lower half of the division for them.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-9): Was there a more excitiing game to watch last year than a Chiefs game? The Chiefs broke an NFL record last year by losing 4 games in a season, in which they scored 30 or more points. The Old record was 3 held by the 1985 Chargers. The Addition of Vonnie Holiday (GB) should help on that side of the ball, but they still have some work to get in the upper half of the NFL's defensie rankings. The offense just got better with the drafting of Penn State RB Larry Johnson, also he will add depth should Holmes have injuriy problems again. The Chiefs must find away to stop people this could turn out to be a very long and ugly season.
NFC EAST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5): The Eagles will be a team on mission this year. Last year Philly had a home game in the Conference Finals and lost to the Bucs 27-10. To Tampa Bay, a team that had never won a game in under 40 degree weather. That loss has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Eagles and you can be sure that they will come out fighting this year. The Birds did lose a lot on the defensive side with the departure of Hugh Douglas, but the drafting of DE Jerome McDougle will help take the sting out a bit. The division is tougher, but the Eagles still have enough with McNaab and company to win the division and make another strong bid for the Superbowl.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (8-8): Free spending Dan Snyder has done it again. He opened the wallet in the off season and landed WR Laveranues Coles, QB Rob Johnson, DE Regan Upshaw and PK John Hall, to name a few. The biggest concern for the Skins is settling on a QB. Once they accomplish that, I believe they will be a more competitive team. The defense appears to be all set with Arrington, Upshaw, Armstead, and possibly the best set of DB's in the league, led by the talented Champ Bailey. Possible top 3 defense. Now if Spurrier can get the fun and gun offense going then this team will be a force. I'll call for a rough QB situation again and an 8-8 record.
NY GIANTS (7-9): The G-Men are another team that will be on a mission this year as their 39-38 loss to the 49ers in last years playoff, was a bitter pill to swallow. The Giants have a good offense with Collins, Barber and the very talented Jeremy Shockey, so scoring points shouldn't be a problem here. The problem in last years playoff loss was the defense and special teams. The Giants solved some of the STs problems w/ KR Brian Mitchell, P Jeff Feagles and PK Mike Hollis all signing on. The defense also got a shot in the arm with the drafting of DT William Joseph and DE OSI Umenylora in the first 2 rounds. The giants are a stronger team but their schedule is also tougher and that's why I'm calling for slip in the standings.
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-10): Three straight years of going 5-11 has prompted Jerry Jones to lure Parcells back to the sidelines. Gone from the team is long time RB Emmit Smith, whose leadership will be missed more than his running ability these days. The downfall of this team will be it's offense as they have a weak QB position and an unproven running game. Points will be hard to come by this year for the Pokes. The Cowboys defense can be very good this year, if they take care of their secondary problems. The LB's are strong and the D-Line is among the top 3. The bad news is that this team is a long way from contending, but the good news is that with Parcell's around this team is only another year or two from getting there.
NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5): History was made in last years playoff, as the Atlanta Falcons handed Green Bay it's first ever home field playoff loss. The Pack used this past April's draft to strengthen an already solid defense, and with an aging Favre and with Terry Glenn gone, it was a surprising move. The week spot on this defense was stopping the run last yr, as they allowed 129 YPG and 4.8 YPC. Not very good numbers BY NFL standards. The secondary adds Al Harris (Philly) to a group that allowed only 183 YPG. No worries really on the offense (unless Favre goes down) as Brett, Driver, Franks, and Green will put plenty of points on the board. Packer Backers can order their playoff tickets now as the 3rd easiest schedule and playing in a weak division will help the Pack contend for the Lombardi Trophy once again.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6): Remember the Chargers of way back. You know, the Dan Fouts era. That's who this Vikings team remind me of, a team that can score from that locker room, but also a team that can't stop anyone else from scoring. The offense is downright scary with Culpepper, Moss, Bennet and a Top 5 offensive line. Like I said above, they could score from the locker room. Knowing their defensive problems, the Vikes used their top 2 picks to nab DL Kevin Williams (Oklahoma State) and LB E.J. Henderson (Maryland). Minnesota allowed 360 YPG and 28 PPG, last year, so those 2 picks should step right in and help. Vikings game will be exciting this year, and with an improved "D" I look for them to post 10 victories and a shot at the playoffs.
DETROIT LIONS (6-10): Well in this division it's GB and Minnesota and then the other 2. After 5 wins in the last 2 years combined, the Lions appear headed in the right direction. Rookie QB Harrington had a tough time last year, hitting just 50% of his passes and throwing 16 INT's to just 12 TD passes. He will have a better supporting cast this year with Az- Hakim and 1st round draft pick Charles Rogers (Michigan State) catching balls for him. I see 3000 yrds passing this year for Joey. The defense is were this team need help after allowing 28 and 27 PPG the last 2 years respectively. Drafting OLB Boss Bailey (GA) and picking up LB Earl Holmes and CB Dre' Bly will certainly push them back towards the team that allowed only 19 PPG in 2000. The Lions aren't there yet, but Mariucci has them pointed in the right direction.
CHICAGO BEARS (4-12): 2 years ago the Bears were sitting pretty with a 13-3 regular season mark, before a loss to the Eagles knocked them from the playoffs. 2 points of concern heading into the year appear to be the running game (only 84 YPG and 3.5 YPC) and rushing defense (130 YPG and 4.1 YPC). The Bears chose to help their defense in the draft, with 5 of their first 6 choices being on that side of the ball. The offensive player was QB Rex Grossman. Not a bad choice by any stretch. The Bears also got Kordell (crybaby) Stewart from Pittsburgh. Not sure if he's a good role model for Grossman, infact Rex will be the QB by the 10th game this year. This teams "D" has been upgraded but the offense has not and that's bad news when you're playing in an offensive division like this one. It'll be a long year in the Windy City.
NFC SOUTH
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (12-4): Hats off to Gruden and company as the Bucs walked away with the Lombardi Trophy after no one gave them a chance against the Raiders. Tampa's defense (12 PPG and 256 YPG) was simply awesome last year, while the offense (only 22 TO's all year) didn't make mistakes that would hurt the team. The Bucs didn't lose much in the off season as they return 19 starters, while adding 2 impact players on the offensive side of the ball. WR Joe Jurevicius and TE Ken Dilger have been brought in to give QB Brad Johnson a couple of more targets in the aerial game. The running game remains a question mark and it may keep Tampa from returning to the big game. The schedule is tough, and with that bullseye on their backs now, all the Bucs will fall just short of defending their title.
ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6): The Atlanta Falcons are certainly a team on the rise. The offense, with the likes of Vick, Dunn and now Peerless Price maybe one of the best in the NFC. Michael Vick came on to have a heck of a year, throwing for 2900 yrds and tossing 16 TD's with ONLY 8 INT's. Pretty good, for a guy that was thought of as not being big enough to be a NFL QB. The defense improved last year by 5 PPG over 2001, and will continue to get better under the guidance of Reeves. The addition of 2nd round pick DB Bryan Scott (Penn State) will help fortify a secondary that's was middle of the road in the NFL last year. The Falcons have the pieces in place to dethrone the Bucs Next Year but as for this year they will have to settle for a possible wildcard berth.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-9): Last Year the Saints suffered a late season collapse, as they needed to beat, Minnesota, Cincinnati or Carolina to gain a post season berth. They couldn't beat any of the three and ended up staying home for the playoffs. Now if you can't beat those three teams in a must win situation, then you deserve to stay home. The offense on this team had an excellent year, averaging 27 PPG (best in the NFC) and 326 YPG. Brooks could have been more consistent last year, but he and his supporting cast consisting of WR's Horn and Stallworth, RB McAllister, and probably the best depth at TE in the league, with Cromwell, Sloan and Williams, are all set for big years. The defense was the problem on this team as they allowed all but one team to score over 20 or more points. Allowing 362 YPG, along with 238 through the air and 124 (4.5 YPC) on the ground, suggests that it's not just one area the Saints have to deal with, but the whole ball of wax. DT Johnathan Sullivan (1st rounder from Georgia) will step in and give immediate help. The secondary has been revamped with the additions of Tebucky Jones (NE) and Ashley Ambrose (ATL). The Saints are in a tough division, but if the defense comes together, then they have the potential to surprise.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-11): The last 3 years the Panther offense has been pathetic averaging about 17 PPG over that span and a mere 280 YPG, so this off season the front office concentrated on helping that side of the ball. RB Stephen Davis (Wash), WR's Kevin Dyson (Tenn) and Ricky Proehl (STL) plus QB Jake Delhomme (NO), have all come aboard to right this floundering offense. The Panthers also used their top 2 picks in the draft on offensive linemen. Davis should be a nig help to a team that has averaged 74, 86 and 100 yards per game the last 3 years respectively. Carolina also must settle on a QB that can get the ball to a now solid group of WR's. The defense, armed with defensive R.O.Y Julius Peppers (12 Sacks) regrouped last year allowing 82 yards less per game and 7 points less per game than in 2001. Overall the defense went from 31st in the league in '01 to 2nd in the league last year. Only Sean Gilbert from that group is gone. The Panthers won 6 more game last year than '01, but with the offense unsettled they must take a step back before moving forward again.
NFC WEST
ST LOUIS RAMS (10-6): The Rams had been to the playoffs for 3 years in a row, including 2 Superbowl appearances, but inconsistent QB play and injuries took its toll on this team in '02 and they watched the playoffs at home. Kurt Warner never got on track last year and then came the thumb injury. Jamie Martin and Marc Bulger combined to win 5 of the next 6 games, before Warner's return, and then the inconsistency return. The Rams missed the playoffs. Here is a team that, from 1999-2001, averaged 33 PPG and 416 YPG, but could only muster 20 PPG and 348 YPG last year. The talent is there for this team to return to it's explosive ways, but only if Warner returns to his old ways. The "D" is middle of the pack in the NFL after allowing 5 more PPG and 31 more YPG last year than in '01. The secondary was a downer, collecting only 12 INT's, but the Rams tried to upgrade that unit, taking 3 DB's in this years draft. The Rams are still the team to beat in this division, but if they have any more offensive deficiencies, then the Rams will have to watch the playoffs on TV again.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-6): The Seahawks have not been to the playoffs since 1999, but that may change this year. The defense looks to be the area of concern, after allowing 23 PPG last year. Def Coordinator Ray Rhodes was brought in to help take the load off Holmgren and to turn this defense into a top 5 unit. Last year the Seahawks ranked dead last in rushing defense, allowing 152 YPG and 4.9 YPC. Horrible numbers. Help is on the way, in the form of ILB Solomon Bates (4th rounder from Arizona State), DT Norman Hand (NO) and DE Chike Okeafor (SF).This group should be solid this year. The offense appears to be in good hands with Matt Hasselbeck (3075 yrds, 15 TD's 10 INT's and 63.7 completion PCT) at QB, RB Shaun Alexander (1175 yrds and 16 TD's) and WR Koren Robinson (1240 yrds rec and 5 TD's) all set for big years. This offense will surpass last years 22 PPG and 365 YPG. Holmgren has less to worry about now with Rhodes running his "D", and that will allow him to focus more on his play calling and schemes. With a break or two Seattle may just steal the division from the Rams.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8-8): Out is the conservative style of Mariucci, and in is the aggressive, attacking, go for the jugular style of Dennis Erickson. The results should be seen right away, maybe not in the standings, but in the overall attitude of the team. The offense is run under the capable hands of Jeff Garcia (3344 yrds, 21 TD's and 10 INT's), who should once again put up some good numbers with Terrell "Sharpie" Owens (1300 yrds and 13 TD's) and Tai Streets (756 yrds and 5 TD's) to throw to. The running game could use a shot in the arm as Garrison Hearst (972 yrds and 8 TD's) continues to battle injury after injury, and with no real 1000 yrd rusher in sight this team will finish near the bottom of the rushing stats. The defense took a step back last year allowing 5 more PPG than in '01, but that may have been the schemes more than the players. Erickson will attack teams rather than just sit back and not take a chance. The Niners need a consistent running game and more depth on the defense to contend. Not this year, but look out in '03.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-12): The Cards are in sad shape on both sides of the ball, as they have averaged 16 PPG and 281 YPG, while allowing 25 ppg and 358 ypg, over the last 4 years. RB Emmit Smith (Dallas) was brought in to help bolster the running game, while journeyman QB Jeff Blake has been given control of the offense. Gone is Jake Plummer, who left for greener pastures in Denver and David Boston, who will be playing catch with Drew Brees in San Diego. The loss of Boston will hurt the most as there is not any proven replacements to take his spot. The defense was downright horrible the last year as they allowed 26 PPG, while collecting only 21 sacks. McGinnis prides himself on defense and he will right the ship on that side of the ball. Arizona just doesn't have enough playmakers, on either side of the ball, to be competitive in the high-powered NFC West, so they will have to continue to be bottom feeders.
Arizona UNDER 5 wins
Chicago UNDER 7.5 wins
Seattle OVER 7.5 wins
Now for my Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia 23 Miami 21
AFC EAST
MIAMI DOLPHINS (12-4): Last Year the Dolphins were ranked in the TOP 3 in 10 out of 11 major stat categories, yet they failed to make the playoffs. This team has some unfinised business to take care of, and with the addition of LB Seau to an already stout defense, plus QB Brian Griese coming over from Denver, this team is poised for a real run at the Title.
BUFFALO BILLS (10-6): QB Drew Bledsoe has made a real difference in this team, maily where confidence is concerned. The Bills took a chance by selecting RB Willis Mcgahee (who may not be able to play till game 10), but with Travis Henry's emergence and the impoved defense, plus the winning attitude of Bledsoe, this team will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all year long.
NEW YORK JETS (8-8): There is optimism for the Fly Boys this year as they won 9 of their last 11 games of 2002, including a shellacking of the Colts (41-0) in the first round of the playoffs. that streak took off once QB Chad Pennington was inserted to lead the team, sending Testeverde to the bench. How Chad will do as "The Man" this year (Especially with WR Coles gone) is a big question mark. The Running amd and defense are solid, but with an unproven aerial game and a tie (with Dallas and Philly) for the toughest schedule in the league, all the Jets can look forward to is a .500 record.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-10): The Pats didn't have a very good off-season in my oppinion. The need for a RB to help bolster the 28th ranked rushing team in the league wasn't addressed. The OL line didn't get any help and for a team that could muster only 91 yrd rushing per game and 3.7 YPC, that just wont do. Well Belichick is a defensive guru so I guess he feels they will win it all on defense, as shown by drafting 7 of 10 players from that side of the ball. Two years ago the Pats were in the SB, but now they're heading in a downward spiral, right to the basement of the AFC East.
AFC NORTH
TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7): The Titan's just missed out on playing in the super Bowl, but 2 quick scores in the second half of the Oakland game sealed their fate. The Titans had a solid draft in June, filling the need for a RB, WR and DB. If McNair and George can stay helthy and a WR emerges, this team will be tough to stop and fun watch in '03. The Titans bring the #2 ranked rushing "D" into this campaign but if they cant stop teams through the air then all they will have to look forward to is an early playoff exit.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-8): Here's a mystery team. Manning, Harrison and James, perhaps the most feared trio in the league since Aikman, Irving and Smith at Dallas, and they could only muster 21 ppg last yr. The defense (21 ppg), however was much improved over 2001 (30 ppg). Dungy sure made his mark on that side of the ball. The Team didn't really hurt or help its self in the off-season. The defense is all set, but the Colts must keep James healthy in order to steal the division away from the Titans. it might not help them to get to the playoffs anyway as Dungy has lost 4 straight post season appearances, being outscored 104-18 in those contests.
HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10): Year 2 for the Texans is under way. Their 1st year was a decent one asthey grabbed 4 wins, including victories over playoff teams NY Giants and Pittsburgh. Their biggest concern heading into '03 is keeping QB David Carr alive. Carr saw most of his rookie season in the NFL from his butt as he was sacked an amazing 76 times. Tough to be a rookie QB on an expansion team. While the offense was the worst in the league, the defense was respectable. The defense will be stronger this year and that will help the Texans stay in alot of games this year, but no more than six wins in '03.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-12): New HC Jack Del Rio has his work cut out for him with this team. The defense was immediately given a boost with the signing of ex-Philadelphia DE Hugh Douglas. Hugh will bolster the line while LB Mike Peterson (Indy) with help upgrade the LB corps. The running game was solid last yr with 131 ypg and 4.6 ypc, but the Jags could only muster 173 ypg through the air. The Jags are in dissaray this year and it looks like they'll be spending the '03 season in the AFC North basement.
AFC SOUTH
CLEVELAND BROWNS (10-6): Your reading this right im pcking the Browns to win the AFC South. The Browns really should their tough mental state last year as 13 of their 17 games were decided by 8 or less points. This team will feed off that this year. The Browns are set at defense, RB and WR, now all they have to do is settle on who will deliver the ball. The good news is that whoever it is, Holcomb or Couch, the offense will be in good hands. The parts are there for this team to shine and thats why they are my surprise pick to win the South.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7): Kordell is gone and now the Steelers offense is in the hands of Tommy Maddox. The Steelers won't win a title on the strength of the QB, as the running game and defense is what propells this team. Their defensive needs were adressed in the off season, with the drafting of CB Troy Palamalu and DE Alonzo Jackson. Thats good news, considering the Steelers allowed 98 points over their last 3 games last year. If the Steelers can get their pass defense under control then then they just might take the division away from the Browns.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-9): 3 years ago this team was sitting on top of the world and now they're just fighting to get back to respectability. The did improve their offense last year over '01, but injuries to the WR's really took its toll on this team. The defense is what let this team down last year. Last year they allowed 6 more ppg and 60 more ypg over '01. The drafting of LB Terrel Suggs should help stabilize this side of the ball for the Ravens. This team needs the defense to set up the offense and if that doesn't happen this year then they wont come close to the 7 win plateau.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-11): Ahh the Bungles. Oops I might not be able to say that in year or 2, as they are on the right track. After a franchise worst 2-14 season last year, HC Dick Lebeau was let go. Enter Marvin Lewis. Remember him? The defensive coordinator of the 2000 Super Bowl champions, the Baltimore Ravens. A team that allowed only 9 ppg that year. LB Spikes is gone, but they will be better with the signing of LB Hardy and with Lewis' presence alone. Kitna will start at QB, bet he will groom QB of the future, Carson Palmer. With Dillon the running game is set and they are a solid WR away from having a decent offense. Baby steps here for the Bengals. This year the defense will be molded and the 'O" will be next year.
AFC WEST
OAKLAND RAIDERS (10-6): You've heard about the Boys of Summer, right? Well meet the Boys of Geritol. Having said that, the aging raiders seem to have one more year in the tank before it all goes south on them. The biggest mistake they made was letting Gruden go to the Bucs. The SB result might have been different had they kept him. The question is will the draft picks they got for gruden help this team out. The schedule makers were kind to Oakland, giving them the 20th easiest schedule. The offense is still solid with Garner, Rice, Gannon and Brown, while the DB's may be the best in the league, but winning the whole ball of wax may be too tall an order for these guys to handle. So for now Im calling for them to win the west but no further.
DENVER BRONCOS (9-7): Obviously Griese wasn't the man to lead this team. Enter Jake Plummer (Arz). Jake was brought in for the purpose of getting the ball to McCaffery, Sharpe, and Smith and I have a feeling that all three are happy right now. Jake will get them the ball. The running game is in good hands with the emergence of Clinton Portis (1508 yds as a rookie) and that will help take the pressure off Plummer. The week spot for the broncos last year was the secondary, yet the used 5 of 10 picks on the DL. The Broncos will score points but if they can't stop anyone then they just may slip below the .500 mark in '03.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-8): If only the Chargers could finish a season a strong as they start one. In 2001 it was a 5-2 start before ending with 9 straight losses. Last year it was a 6-1 start before the Marty fade took over and they finished at 8-8. the weak spot for this team is along the offensive and defensive lines, and that wasn't addressed in the off-season. The signing of David Boston (Arz) will give this team the deep threat they lack for many years. Drew Brees is happy that Boston is here and his stats will show it this year. The defense will sorely miss both Seau and Harrison, but the drafting of 2 CB's with thier first 2 picks will help take the sting out a little. The Chargers will be very competetive this year, but until they stop having that second half swoon, then it'll be the lower half of the division for them.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-9): Was there a more excitiing game to watch last year than a Chiefs game? The Chiefs broke an NFL record last year by losing 4 games in a season, in which they scored 30 or more points. The Old record was 3 held by the 1985 Chargers. The Addition of Vonnie Holiday (GB) should help on that side of the ball, but they still have some work to get in the upper half of the NFL's defensie rankings. The offense just got better with the drafting of Penn State RB Larry Johnson, also he will add depth should Holmes have injuriy problems again. The Chiefs must find away to stop people this could turn out to be a very long and ugly season.
NFC EAST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5): The Eagles will be a team on mission this year. Last year Philly had a home game in the Conference Finals and lost to the Bucs 27-10. To Tampa Bay, a team that had never won a game in under 40 degree weather. That loss has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Eagles and you can be sure that they will come out fighting this year. The Birds did lose a lot on the defensive side with the departure of Hugh Douglas, but the drafting of DE Jerome McDougle will help take the sting out a bit. The division is tougher, but the Eagles still have enough with McNaab and company to win the division and make another strong bid for the Superbowl.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (8-8): Free spending Dan Snyder has done it again. He opened the wallet in the off season and landed WR Laveranues Coles, QB Rob Johnson, DE Regan Upshaw and PK John Hall, to name a few. The biggest concern for the Skins is settling on a QB. Once they accomplish that, I believe they will be a more competitive team. The defense appears to be all set with Arrington, Upshaw, Armstead, and possibly the best set of DB's in the league, led by the talented Champ Bailey. Possible top 3 defense. Now if Spurrier can get the fun and gun offense going then this team will be a force. I'll call for a rough QB situation again and an 8-8 record.
NY GIANTS (7-9): The G-Men are another team that will be on a mission this year as their 39-38 loss to the 49ers in last years playoff, was a bitter pill to swallow. The Giants have a good offense with Collins, Barber and the very talented Jeremy Shockey, so scoring points shouldn't be a problem here. The problem in last years playoff loss was the defense and special teams. The Giants solved some of the STs problems w/ KR Brian Mitchell, P Jeff Feagles and PK Mike Hollis all signing on. The defense also got a shot in the arm with the drafting of DT William Joseph and DE OSI Umenylora in the first 2 rounds. The giants are a stronger team but their schedule is also tougher and that's why I'm calling for slip in the standings.
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-10): Three straight years of going 5-11 has prompted Jerry Jones to lure Parcells back to the sidelines. Gone from the team is long time RB Emmit Smith, whose leadership will be missed more than his running ability these days. The downfall of this team will be it's offense as they have a weak QB position and an unproven running game. Points will be hard to come by this year for the Pokes. The Cowboys defense can be very good this year, if they take care of their secondary problems. The LB's are strong and the D-Line is among the top 3. The bad news is that this team is a long way from contending, but the good news is that with Parcell's around this team is only another year or two from getting there.
NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5): History was made in last years playoff, as the Atlanta Falcons handed Green Bay it's first ever home field playoff loss. The Pack used this past April's draft to strengthen an already solid defense, and with an aging Favre and with Terry Glenn gone, it was a surprising move. The week spot on this defense was stopping the run last yr, as they allowed 129 YPG and 4.8 YPC. Not very good numbers BY NFL standards. The secondary adds Al Harris (Philly) to a group that allowed only 183 YPG. No worries really on the offense (unless Favre goes down) as Brett, Driver, Franks, and Green will put plenty of points on the board. Packer Backers can order their playoff tickets now as the 3rd easiest schedule and playing in a weak division will help the Pack contend for the Lombardi Trophy once again.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6): Remember the Chargers of way back. You know, the Dan Fouts era. That's who this Vikings team remind me of, a team that can score from that locker room, but also a team that can't stop anyone else from scoring. The offense is downright scary with Culpepper, Moss, Bennet and a Top 5 offensive line. Like I said above, they could score from the locker room. Knowing their defensive problems, the Vikes used their top 2 picks to nab DL Kevin Williams (Oklahoma State) and LB E.J. Henderson (Maryland). Minnesota allowed 360 YPG and 28 PPG, last year, so those 2 picks should step right in and help. Vikings game will be exciting this year, and with an improved "D" I look for them to post 10 victories and a shot at the playoffs.
DETROIT LIONS (6-10): Well in this division it's GB and Minnesota and then the other 2. After 5 wins in the last 2 years combined, the Lions appear headed in the right direction. Rookie QB Harrington had a tough time last year, hitting just 50% of his passes and throwing 16 INT's to just 12 TD passes. He will have a better supporting cast this year with Az- Hakim and 1st round draft pick Charles Rogers (Michigan State) catching balls for him. I see 3000 yrds passing this year for Joey. The defense is were this team need help after allowing 28 and 27 PPG the last 2 years respectively. Drafting OLB Boss Bailey (GA) and picking up LB Earl Holmes and CB Dre' Bly will certainly push them back towards the team that allowed only 19 PPG in 2000. The Lions aren't there yet, but Mariucci has them pointed in the right direction.
CHICAGO BEARS (4-12): 2 years ago the Bears were sitting pretty with a 13-3 regular season mark, before a loss to the Eagles knocked them from the playoffs. 2 points of concern heading into the year appear to be the running game (only 84 YPG and 3.5 YPC) and rushing defense (130 YPG and 4.1 YPC). The Bears chose to help their defense in the draft, with 5 of their first 6 choices being on that side of the ball. The offensive player was QB Rex Grossman. Not a bad choice by any stretch. The Bears also got Kordell (crybaby) Stewart from Pittsburgh. Not sure if he's a good role model for Grossman, infact Rex will be the QB by the 10th game this year. This teams "D" has been upgraded but the offense has not and that's bad news when you're playing in an offensive division like this one. It'll be a long year in the Windy City.
NFC SOUTH
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (12-4): Hats off to Gruden and company as the Bucs walked away with the Lombardi Trophy after no one gave them a chance against the Raiders. Tampa's defense (12 PPG and 256 YPG) was simply awesome last year, while the offense (only 22 TO's all year) didn't make mistakes that would hurt the team. The Bucs didn't lose much in the off season as they return 19 starters, while adding 2 impact players on the offensive side of the ball. WR Joe Jurevicius and TE Ken Dilger have been brought in to give QB Brad Johnson a couple of more targets in the aerial game. The running game remains a question mark and it may keep Tampa from returning to the big game. The schedule is tough, and with that bullseye on their backs now, all the Bucs will fall just short of defending their title.
ATLANTA FALCONS (10-6): The Atlanta Falcons are certainly a team on the rise. The offense, with the likes of Vick, Dunn and now Peerless Price maybe one of the best in the NFC. Michael Vick came on to have a heck of a year, throwing for 2900 yrds and tossing 16 TD's with ONLY 8 INT's. Pretty good, for a guy that was thought of as not being big enough to be a NFL QB. The defense improved last year by 5 PPG over 2001, and will continue to get better under the guidance of Reeves. The addition of 2nd round pick DB Bryan Scott (Penn State) will help fortify a secondary that's was middle of the road in the NFL last year. The Falcons have the pieces in place to dethrone the Bucs Next Year but as for this year they will have to settle for a possible wildcard berth.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-9): Last Year the Saints suffered a late season collapse, as they needed to beat, Minnesota, Cincinnati or Carolina to gain a post season berth. They couldn't beat any of the three and ended up staying home for the playoffs. Now if you can't beat those three teams in a must win situation, then you deserve to stay home. The offense on this team had an excellent year, averaging 27 PPG (best in the NFC) and 326 YPG. Brooks could have been more consistent last year, but he and his supporting cast consisting of WR's Horn and Stallworth, RB McAllister, and probably the best depth at TE in the league, with Cromwell, Sloan and Williams, are all set for big years. The defense was the problem on this team as they allowed all but one team to score over 20 or more points. Allowing 362 YPG, along with 238 through the air and 124 (4.5 YPC) on the ground, suggests that it's not just one area the Saints have to deal with, but the whole ball of wax. DT Johnathan Sullivan (1st rounder from Georgia) will step in and give immediate help. The secondary has been revamped with the additions of Tebucky Jones (NE) and Ashley Ambrose (ATL). The Saints are in a tough division, but if the defense comes together, then they have the potential to surprise.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-11): The last 3 years the Panther offense has been pathetic averaging about 17 PPG over that span and a mere 280 YPG, so this off season the front office concentrated on helping that side of the ball. RB Stephen Davis (Wash), WR's Kevin Dyson (Tenn) and Ricky Proehl (STL) plus QB Jake Delhomme (NO), have all come aboard to right this floundering offense. The Panthers also used their top 2 picks in the draft on offensive linemen. Davis should be a nig help to a team that has averaged 74, 86 and 100 yards per game the last 3 years respectively. Carolina also must settle on a QB that can get the ball to a now solid group of WR's. The defense, armed with defensive R.O.Y Julius Peppers (12 Sacks) regrouped last year allowing 82 yards less per game and 7 points less per game than in 2001. Overall the defense went from 31st in the league in '01 to 2nd in the league last year. Only Sean Gilbert from that group is gone. The Panthers won 6 more game last year than '01, but with the offense unsettled they must take a step back before moving forward again.
NFC WEST
ST LOUIS RAMS (10-6): The Rams had been to the playoffs for 3 years in a row, including 2 Superbowl appearances, but inconsistent QB play and injuries took its toll on this team in '02 and they watched the playoffs at home. Kurt Warner never got on track last year and then came the thumb injury. Jamie Martin and Marc Bulger combined to win 5 of the next 6 games, before Warner's return, and then the inconsistency return. The Rams missed the playoffs. Here is a team that, from 1999-2001, averaged 33 PPG and 416 YPG, but could only muster 20 PPG and 348 YPG last year. The talent is there for this team to return to it's explosive ways, but only if Warner returns to his old ways. The "D" is middle of the pack in the NFL after allowing 5 more PPG and 31 more YPG last year than in '01. The secondary was a downer, collecting only 12 INT's, but the Rams tried to upgrade that unit, taking 3 DB's in this years draft. The Rams are still the team to beat in this division, but if they have any more offensive deficiencies, then the Rams will have to watch the playoffs on TV again.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-6): The Seahawks have not been to the playoffs since 1999, but that may change this year. The defense looks to be the area of concern, after allowing 23 PPG last year. Def Coordinator Ray Rhodes was brought in to help take the load off Holmgren and to turn this defense into a top 5 unit. Last year the Seahawks ranked dead last in rushing defense, allowing 152 YPG and 4.9 YPC. Horrible numbers. Help is on the way, in the form of ILB Solomon Bates (4th rounder from Arizona State), DT Norman Hand (NO) and DE Chike Okeafor (SF).This group should be solid this year. The offense appears to be in good hands with Matt Hasselbeck (3075 yrds, 15 TD's 10 INT's and 63.7 completion PCT) at QB, RB Shaun Alexander (1175 yrds and 16 TD's) and WR Koren Robinson (1240 yrds rec and 5 TD's) all set for big years. This offense will surpass last years 22 PPG and 365 YPG. Holmgren has less to worry about now with Rhodes running his "D", and that will allow him to focus more on his play calling and schemes. With a break or two Seattle may just steal the division from the Rams.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8-8): Out is the conservative style of Mariucci, and in is the aggressive, attacking, go for the jugular style of Dennis Erickson. The results should be seen right away, maybe not in the standings, but in the overall attitude of the team. The offense is run under the capable hands of Jeff Garcia (3344 yrds, 21 TD's and 10 INT's), who should once again put up some good numbers with Terrell "Sharpie" Owens (1300 yrds and 13 TD's) and Tai Streets (756 yrds and 5 TD's) to throw to. The running game could use a shot in the arm as Garrison Hearst (972 yrds and 8 TD's) continues to battle injury after injury, and with no real 1000 yrd rusher in sight this team will finish near the bottom of the rushing stats. The defense took a step back last year allowing 5 more PPG than in '01, but that may have been the schemes more than the players. Erickson will attack teams rather than just sit back and not take a chance. The Niners need a consistent running game and more depth on the defense to contend. Not this year, but look out in '03.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-12): The Cards are in sad shape on both sides of the ball, as they have averaged 16 PPG and 281 YPG, while allowing 25 ppg and 358 ypg, over the last 4 years. RB Emmit Smith (Dallas) was brought in to help bolster the running game, while journeyman QB Jeff Blake has been given control of the offense. Gone is Jake Plummer, who left for greener pastures in Denver and David Boston, who will be playing catch with Drew Brees in San Diego. The loss of Boston will hurt the most as there is not any proven replacements to take his spot. The defense was downright horrible the last year as they allowed 26 PPG, while collecting only 21 sacks. McGinnis prides himself on defense and he will right the ship on that side of the ball. Arizona just doesn't have enough playmakers, on either side of the ball, to be competitive in the high-powered NFC West, so they will have to continue to be bottom feeders.
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