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**FootballFormula** · 07-29-2003, 06:27 PM

Pre-Season and Futures

Pre-Season and Futures

From my earliest years as a handicapper in the early 1980's, I remember a time when pre-season was actually meaningless. But in the era of free agency and the more recent WIN NOW mentality, things seem to be a bit different.

I think a real turning point was in 1997. Prior to that season I believed that the 1997 Season would go on record as the most competitive in the history of the League. I do not have the stats on the year, but I distinctively recall that my projection was accurate. More overtimes, more 3-point games, and more 7-9, 8-8, and 9-7 teams than any time in history.

Since then, I believe those afforementioned numbers have been surpassed. But my projections were not based on happenstance or a hunch. I believe the current and (then) new era of WIN NOW football began that season for a reason...

The catalyst for the change were the 2nd-year success stories of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers--both of which went to their respective Conference Championships in the 1996 season, each falling just 1 game short of the Superbowl.

The world of NFL football changed then. No longer did owners want to talk about 5-year rebuilding plans. Put the thing together and make it work. Now. Don't tell me it cannot be done. It can be done--as evidenced by the success of the Panthers and Jags. If they can do it, we can do it.

And so you have the modern day versions of teams attempting the same thing, e.g., the Raiders, Redskings, etc. Suddenly winning takes on a new level of job security. Not that it wasn't always that way, but that the time frame for success is significantly shorter now.

Enter in the heightened importance of a winning attitude. Now, there are still coaches who simply don't think pre-season matters, and perhaps that is true to some extent--but they'd better follow it up by winning some regular season games. Apparently in recent history a winning attitude during pre-season has helped teams going into the regular season.

Or, as some would suggest, perhaps it is simply that the better teams for the upcoming season manifest their 'betterness' during pre-season simply because, well, they ARE better, as opposed to the ideology that their pre-season success could be ascribed to a supposed winning attitude.

But what does it matter? Whatever the reason, the numbers don't lie. Let's take a look at those numbers from the past 10 NFL Seasons...

***Here's a look at the 20 teams that finished undeated in Pre-Season the last 10 years:

1.) Thirteen of them made the Playoffs that season. That's nearly two-thirds. Not bad since only about 1/3 of the NFL teams make the playoffs. Could be useful in division winners Futures.

2.) Fourteen of the 20 teams finished above .500, three @ .500, and only three of the 20 below .500. Could be useful in Over/Under team wins Futures. In contrast...

***Here's a look at the 17 teams that finished winless in Pre-Season the last 10 years:

1.) Fifteen out of 17 failed to make the Playoffs.

2.) Only two of 17 had a winning season.

There was a day when bad teams were actually a good play in pre-season, and early SB faves were potential suicide during the scrimages. But perhaps in the day of WIN NOW football, the better teams are showing their true colors a bit earlier than they use to.

Another note of interest that may be telling the same story is how these teams do in Week One of Regular Season.

There was a time when it was nearly ironclad that you could go against the undefeated pre-season teams in their opener and go with the winless teams. But the last 3 seasons tell a different story.

From 1995-99 the results continued to mirror what had been a common pattern for years when going against the undefeated teams Week One and with the winless teams: 15-4 ATS

However, during the last 3 seasons the results have totally flopped the other way with a record of 2-10 ATS. Coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not. In any event, while the trend use to be a pretty solid investment, it no longer holds water.

So there you have it. Some goodies for the upcoming season. Stay tuned for more Pre-Season and Regular Season Winning angles. Thank you for your time...

Sincerely,
David K. Toop
http://www.footballformulas.com
contact: [email protected]

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