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**FootballFormula** · 07-21-2003, 03:50 PM

FREE College Football Formula

After 858 DOCUMENTED PICKS.....it is a DOCUMENTED FACT:

***24-year Handicapping veteran David Toop (aka taxi driver), is ranked #2 ALL TIME in "Return on Risk" at bigguy.com's Free Picks Site!

***That is a DOCUMENTED Record of "ALL SPORTS COMBINED" among those with a minimum of 800 Documented Picks or more!

***And that's BEFORE I developed these TEN ALL NEW WINNING FORMULAS!

***Trailing the #1 spot by a meager 8/100ths of a percent, the Formulas are sure to make for an EXCITING SEASON!

***Will you BE THERE when we BLOW AWAY that mark and TAKE OVER the #1 Ranking?

FREE College Formula Info:

My NCAA College Football ASR Formula hit 64% ATS last season as documented in the Spread Report Online.

If you would like more information on how to receive the NCAA "Average Spread Rating" Formula FREE, visit my site at:

http://www.footballformulas.com

Thank you...

dave

**FootballFormula** · 07-21-2003, 06:36 PM

2001 NFL Turnover Formula Results

It is common knowledge that the team with the most turnovers in the game wins and/or covers a high percentage of the time. It is by far the single most important factor in determining the winner of the game and also who covers. The facts bear that out.

Despite being a 22-year veteran of Football Handicapping, it was not until a few years ago (1999) that I began to investigate Turnovers and, hopefully, how to predict them before the game. If I could do that, I would have a decided advantage.

Over the last 3 seasons I have done research as time permitted. I do all my research by hand to get it right, and because I do it by hand it is rather tedious.

In any event, my Turnover research during the off-season has been a smashing success backed with solid rationale and a healthy blend of common sense and a diminishing return idealogy. Presto.

While last year's results is a hard act to follow, this year's Turnover Formula Plays are sure to get the juices flowing early and wet the appetite for more once the fumbles and interceptions start adding up and the Winners start coming in.

After an entire off-season of developing and researching my Turnover Formula, here's the rundown of my Turnover Formula Plays from last season. Enjoy...

---------------

Week Four:

---------------

"Back Nine" (Top Plays):

*Dallas +17 over OAKLAND Win 21-28

*MIAMI -8' over New England Win 30-10

"Green" (Other Plays):

*SAN FRAN -7 over Carolina Win 24-14

*CLEVELAND +3' over San Diego Win 20-16

*DENVER -10 over Kansas City Win 20-6

*SEATTLE +3 over Jacksonville Win 24-15

*Washington +13' over GIANTS Lose 9-23

Week Four/Ytd:

Back Nine: 2-0/2-0

Green: 4-1/4-1

Total: 6-1/6-1

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Week Five:

---------------

Back Nine:

No Plays

Green:

*GREEN BAY +1 over Baltimore Win 31-23

*Washington +3 over DALLAS Win 7-9

*Detroit +10' over MINNESOTA Win 26-31

*KANSAS CITY -2' over Pittsburgh Lose 17-20

*Giants +11' over ST LOUIS Win 14-15

*TENNESSEE -2' over Tampa Bay Win 31-28

Week Five/Ytd:

Back Nine: 0-0/2-0

Green: 5-1/9-2

All: 5-1/11-2

--------------

Week Six:

--------------

Back Nine:

*Rams -7 over JETS Win 34-14

Green:

*Bills +8' over JAGS Win 13-10

*Eagles +3 over GIANTS Win 10-9

*Chiefs -2' over CARDS Lose 16-24

*COLTS -10 over Pats Lose 17-38

Week Six/Ytd:

Back Nine: 1-0/3-0

Green: 2-2/11-4

All: 3-2/14-4

----------------

Week Seven:

----------------

Back Nine:

*No Plays

Green:

*BEARS -2' over 49ers Win 37-31

*BRONCOS -7 over Pats Win 31-20

*Colts -3 over CHIEFS Win 35-28

*Dolphins -2' over SEAHAWKS Win 24-20

Week Seven/Ytd:

Back Nine: 0-0/3-0

Green: 4-0/15-4

Combined: 4-0/18-4

----------------

Week Eight:

----------------

Back Nine:

*Jets +6 over SAINTS Win 16-9

Green:

*Pats +3 over FALCONS Win 24-10

*Ravens +1' over STEELERS Win 13-10

*RAIDERS -5' over Broncos Win 38-28

*Bucs +5' over PACKERS Win 20-21

*TITANS -3 over Jags Win 28-24

*GIANTS -10 over Cowboys Lose 27-24

Week Eight/Ytd:

Back Nine: 1-0/4-0

Green: 5-1/20-5

Combined: 6-1/24-5

---------------

Week Nine:

---------------

Back Nine:

*RAMS -20 over Panthers Win 48-14

Green:

*JAGS -4 over Bengals Win 30-13

*FALCONS -4' over Cowboys Win 20-13

*Vikings +4 over EAGLES Lose 17-48

Week Nine:

Back Nine: 1-0/5-0

Green: 2-1/22-6

Combined: 3-1/27-6

--------------

Week Ten:

--------------

Back Nine:

*No Plays

Green:

*CARDS -1' over Lions Win 45-38

*VIKINGS -2 over Giants Win 28-16

*PACKERS -10' over Falcons Lose 20-23

Week Ten:

Back Nine: 0-0/5-0

Green: 2-1/24-7

Combined: 2-1/29-7

-----------------

Week Eleven:

-----------------

Back Nine:

*COWBOYS +6' over Broncos Win 24-26

Green:

*Redskins +7' over EAGLES Win 13-3

*PATS +1 over Saints Win 34-17

*CHIEFS -1' over Seahawks Win 19-7

*Dolphins -4' over BILLS Win 34-27

*Bengals +4' over BROWNS Lose 0-18

*CHARGERS -7 over Cards Lose 17-20

Week Eleven:

Back Nine: 1-0/6-0

Green: 4-2/28-9

Combined: 5-2/34-9

-----------------

Week Twelve:

-----------------

Back Nine:

*Rams -7' over FALCONS Win 35-6

*Titans pk over BROWNS Win 31-15

*BENGALS +5' over Bucs Win 13-16

Green:

*Cards +12 over RAIDERS Win 34-31

*Lions +7 over BEARS Win 10-13

*Packers -3' over JAGS Win 28-21

*Vikings +7' over STEELERS Win 16-21

*Bills +8 over 49ERS Lose 0-35

Week Twelve:

Back Nine: 3-0/9-0

Green: 4-1/32-10

Combined 7-1/41-10

-------------------

Week Thirteen:

-------------------

Back Nine:

*BILLS -3' over Panthers Lose 25-24

Green:

*Redskins +1 over CARDS Win 20-10

*Bears +5 over PACKERS Lose 7-17

*Browns +5' over PATS Lose 16-27

*Colts +4' over DOLPHINS Lose 6-41

Week Thirteen:

Back Nine: 0-1/9-1

Green: 1-3/33-13

Combined: 1-4/42-14

-------------------

Week Fourteen:

-------------------

Back Nine:

*BILLS +4 over Pats Win 9-12

Green:

*49ERS -3' over Dolphins Win 21-0

*Bengals +8' over JETS Win 14-15

*TITANS +3' over Packers Win 26-20

*Raiders -3' over CHARGERS Win 13-6

*RAVENS -3 over Steelers Lose 21-26

*BROWNS -2' over Jags Lose 10-15

Week Fourteen:

Back Nine: 1-0/10-1

Green: 4-2/37-15

Combined: 5-2/47-16

------------------

Week Fifteen:

------------------

Back Nine:

*No Plays

Green:

*STEELERS -10 over Lions Win 47-14

*Jags +3 over VIKINGS Win 33-3

*BUCS -2' over Saints Win 48-21

*CARDS -3' over Cowboys Win 17-10

*FALCONS -3' over Bills Lose 33-30

*REDSKINS pk over Bears Lose 10-15

*Eagles +3 over 49ERS Lose 3-13

Week Fifteen:

Back Nine: 0-0/10-1

Green: 4-3/41-18

Combined: 4-3/51-19

------------------

Week Sixteen:

------------------

Back Nine:

*BENGALS +7' over Steelers Win 26-23

*COWBOYS +6 over 49ers Win 27-21

*Vikings +13 over PACKERS Win 13-24

Green:

*No Plays

Week Sixteen:

Back Nine: 3-0/13-1

Green: 0-0/41-18

Combined 3-0/54-19

--------------------

Week Seventeen:

--------------------

Back Nine:

*Eagles +3' over BUCS Win 17-13

Green:

*No Plays

Week Seventeen:

Back Nine: 1-0/14-1

Green: 0-0/41-18

Combined: 1-0/55-19

Analysis:

The Back Nine (Top Plays) were 14-1 ATS. Here's a breakdown of the Green (standard) Plays which were 41-18 ATS:

All Turnover Formula Green Plays:

Home: 21-9

Road: 20-9

Fave: 21-9

Dog: 20-8 (pk 0-1)

Div: 17-8

Non: 24-10

Home Fave: 16-8

Home Dog: 5-0

Road Fave: 5-1

Road Dog: 15-8

Div HF: 7-4

Div HD: 0-0 (see "High School" thread)

Div RF: 2-0

Div RD: 8-4

Non HF: 9-4

Non HD: 5-0

Non RF: 3-1

Non RD: 7-4

------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Off Win: 14-5

*Off Loss: 32-17

*Team >.500: 15-5

*Team .500: 4-4

*Team <.500: 27-13

*results are prior to 5-4 HD elimination (see High School thread at *********.com)

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of GAMES in which Turnovers went in favor:

Back Nine: 9+, 4-, 1 even

Green: 25+, 21-, 13 even

Combined: 34+, 25-, 14 even

Number of TURNOVERS in favor:

Back Nine: 30+, 19-

Green: 110+, 97-

Combined: 140+, 116-

*Out of 74 Plays, 35 of them were faves; leaving a slight majority (39) as dogs. With the majority of the Plays dogs, a turnover advantage of 140-116 is obviously significant. And that's the one thing I wanted to see.

A fanciful ATS record is nice, but the most important thing in my research (besides that the base rationale be sound and make sense) is that in the final analysis the turnovers would go in my favor to a disproportionate degree in relation to the dog/fave ratio. This year's Turnover Formula Games will be one of several additions to the SRO this Season.

Don't miss this year's Turnover Formula picks, found EXCLUSIVELY within the Spread Report Online this Season...

dave
http://www.footballformulas.com

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